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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 448 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:The way these fellows are pivoting towards HFCK, there must be something! The latest is Kimani Ichung'wa!! Just bought 138m worth of HFCK shares.
Might they be planning something with Affordable Housing Cash and Deals???
Disclaimer: Sometimes these fellows also get things terribly wrong. I remember Ndindi Nyoro selling 11.78 million KPLC shares at 16.5m shillings this January. Those shares today (only 8 months later) would be worth 132m!!! Anyone who followed him in selling imagining he had inside information got burned to recognition or at the very least left a humongous amount of money on the table!!! This fellow @Young. Another connected fellow (former KRA Chair) had earlier bought 1.6 Billion worth of HFCK shares! People in some quarters suspected he was a conduit for someone else. And they even believe they know who the someone else is. Not many people can be pulling 1.6 Billion transactions on a single share so the list of "suspects" is very small. Conduit or no conduit, no one just pumps 1.6 Billion into one stock just like that. There must be something. Procedural/fundamental or otherwise. My suspicion is that the billions in the housing Levy that are currently being invested in Treasury Bills and bonds will find a home in Housing Finance for hustlers to borrow for affordable housing. Happy Hunting
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,903 Location: nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:mufasa wrote:Maybe they'll finally give us some Dividends.
Co-op Bank cheap? That soon after the rights offer?? HF is still in negative equity, dividends not possible in next one to two years
COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.75; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,903 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:mufasa wrote:Maybe they'll finally give us some Dividends.
Co-op Bank cheap? That soon after the rights offer?? HF is still in negative equity, dividends not possible in next one to two years Classification at an improved tier was expected
COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.75; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,259 Location: Nairobi
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1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,067 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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VituVingiSana wrote:1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% @VVS Is HFCK 1H2025 result out in public domain ? Pls share the link ? The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,067 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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VituVingiSana wrote:1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% @VVS Is HFCK 1H 2025 result out in public domain ? Pls share the link ? The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,259 Location: Nairobi
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young wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% @VVS Is HFCK 1H 2025 result out in public domain ? YesPls share the link ? Not on their website. Got it from the NSE. Please share your email and I can forward it to you. I do not know how to upload it onto this site. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,067 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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VituVingiSana wrote:young wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% @VVS Is HFCK 1H 2025 result out in public domain ? YesPls share the link ? Not on their website. Got it from the NSE. Please share your email and I can forward it to you. I do not know how to upload it onto this site. My email is nseeuko62@gmail.comThe wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,903 Location: nairobi
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young wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:young wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% @VVS Is HFCK 1H 2025 result out in public domain ? YesPls share the link ? Not on their website. Got it from the NSE. Please share your email and I can forward it to you. I do not know how to upload it onto this site. My email is nseeuko62@gmail.com @young the results are already posted all over the place. check X https://x.com/hfc_kenya/...lPEgNEnU-mLQMmA&s=19
COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.75; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,067 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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obiero wrote:young wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:young wrote:[quote=VituVingiSana]1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% @VVS Is HFCK 1H 2025 result out in public domain ? YesPls share the link ? Not on their website. Got it from the NSE. Please share your email and I can forward it to you. I do not know how to upload it onto this site. My email is nseeuko62@gmail.com @young the results are already posted all over the place. check X https://x.com/hfc_kenya/...PEgNEnU-mLQMmA&s=19[/quote] Thanks bwana @Obiero The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,644
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VituVingiSana wrote:1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% What's your future projections of HF @VVS? Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute. 142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,259 Location: Nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% What's your future projections of HF @VVS? Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute. 142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere?  Very happy for you. Tough one. HF's PAT/EPS will grow (from 1H25) based on what the CEO was saying. Recoveries, lower funding costs post-Rights, headroom for expansion. BUT with +150% [PER and PB are not as attractive now]... what next is a good question. If you want to stick with banks... one that can either do very well for you or cause you unnecessary angst is DTB. You need a 2-3 year outlook. Low PER and PB with a 7.8% DY (at 89/-) so you get what you would in T-Bills but with potential for higher dividends. Another is Equity. KE has been a drag on performance but it is improving while DRC will keep growing. The catch is that UG, TZ and DRC need cash to grow even if they are profitable so dividends will remain muted. You need a 2-3 year outlook. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,644
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VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% What's your future projections of HF @VVS? Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute. 142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere? Very happy for you. Tough one. HF's PAT/EPS will grow (from 1H25) based on what the CEO was saying. Recoveries, lower funding costs post-Rights, headroom for expansion. BUT with +150% [PER and PB are not as attractive now]... what next is a good question. If you want to stick with banks... one that can either do very well for you or cause you unnecessary angst is DTB. You need a 2-3 year outlook. Low PER and PB with a 7.8% DY (at 89/-) so you get what you would in T-Bills but with potential for higher dividends. Another is Equity. KE has been a drag on performance but it is improving while DRC will keep growing. The catch is that UG, TZ and DRC need cash to grow even if they are profitable so dividends will remain muted. You need a 2-3 year outlook. Thanks @VVS. I am very heavy on banks. The one I have been loading up on lately is KCB. I have gone all in and my next major buys will be around October to results release date based on cashflow. I was wondering if I should liquidate HF and put everything in KCB or ride it out. I am a long term investor but of course every now and then you move things around if and when necessary but not that often. Equity I am all loaded up. We have had a very long term relationship!! First wife manenos!!!  From the days we were being told it is collapsing, oh, it is being propped up by Kibaki, oh, when Kibaki goes, he will go with it bla bla bla!! Over that time it has grown by leaps and bounds!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 864 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% What's your future projections of HF @VVS? Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute. 142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere? Very happy for you. Tough one. HF's PAT/EPS will grow (from 1H25) based on what the CEO was saying. Recoveries, lower funding costs post-Rights, headroom for expansion. BUT with +150% [PER and PB are not as attractive now]... what next is a good question. If you want to stick with banks... one that can either do very well for you or cause you unnecessary angst is DTB. You need a 2-3 year outlook. Low PER and PB with a 7.8% DY (at 89/-) so you get what you would in T-Bills but with potential for higher dividends. Another is Equity. KE has been a drag on performance but it is improving while DRC will keep growing. The catch is that UG, TZ and DRC need cash to grow even if they are profitable so dividends will remain muted. You need a 2-3 year outlook. @VVS what is your take on stanchart in view of the huge cases awaiting decisions? I love it's DIY but these cases could go bad???
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,259 Location: Nairobi
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heri wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% What's your future projections of HF @VVS? Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute. 142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere? Very happy for you. Tough one. HF's PAT/EPS will grow (from 1H25) based on what the CEO was saying. Recoveries, lower funding costs post-Rights, headroom for expansion. BUT with +150% [PER and PB are not as attractive now]... what next is a good question. If you want to stick with banks... one that can either do very well for you or cause you unnecessary angst is DTB. You need a 2-3 year outlook. Low PER and PB with a 7.8% DY (at 89/-) so you get what you would in T-Bills but with potential for higher dividends. Another is Equity. KE has been a drag on performance but it is improving while DRC will keep growing. The catch is that UG, TZ and DRC need cash to grow even if they are profitable so dividends will remain muted. You need a 2-3 year outlook. @VVS what is your take on stanchart in view of the huge cases awaiting decisions? I love it's DIY but these cases could go bad??? Another tough one BUT those cases will take years to come to a conclusion given the appeals to the SC. Let's model the worst case scenario? Please list all the cases and the amounts then we can work through it. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 864 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:heri wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% What's your future projections of HF @VVS? Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute. 142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere? Very happy for you. Tough one. HF's PAT/EPS will grow (from 1H25) based on what the CEO was saying. Recoveries, lower funding costs post-Rights, headroom for expansion. BUT with +150% [PER and PB are not as attractive now]... what next is a good question. If you want to stick with banks... one that can either do very well for you or cause you unnecessary angst is DTB. You need a 2-3 year outlook. Low PER and PB with a 7.8% DY (at 89/-) so you get what you would in T-Bills but with potential for higher dividends. Another is Equity. KE has been a drag on performance but it is improving while DRC will keep growing. The catch is that UG, TZ and DRC need cash to grow even if they are profitable so dividends will remain muted. You need a 2-3 year outlook. @VVS what is your take on stanchart in view of the huge cases awaiting decisions? I love it's DIY but these cases could go bad??? Another tough one BUT those cases will take years to come to a conclusion given the appeals to the SC. Let's model the worst case scenario? Please list all the cases and the amounts then we can work through it. I am not so well informed but I understand there are 2 major cases. Which are already at the Supreme Court? Already gone through the lower courts and even Appeals court so end could be near with decisions 1. Supreme Court; Standard Chartered Bank Kenya vs Manchester Outfitters (Potential Claim KES32B) 2. Former employees are claiming for a payment of 30B. And they won at the Tribunal, High Court and Court of Appeal. StanChart has lost all 3 times. SCBK obtained an injunction at the high court delaying payment of 30B to the former employees. High court will rule on the injunction on 9th September But I think for this pension, the amount will be recalculated not necessarily what they are claiming is payable
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,644
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MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52% What's your future projections of HF @VVS? Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute. 142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere? 11/= prints. 175% gains!!! Making the decision to sell or continue holding becoming even more difficult. Still holding... Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,903 Location: nairobi
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Dividend will only be paid from 2028 once/if negative equity is reversed in 2027. As it was in the beginning, so shall it be in the end. I speak in code. http://m.wazua.co.ke/for...aspx?g=posts&t=18276
COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.75; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,903 Location: nairobi
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solidly overbought. slight correction incoming
COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.75; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,903 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:solidly overbought. slight correction incoming watch and learn
COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.75; MTN ABP 5.20
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