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Is Uganda's Umeme IPO a Bargain?
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,713 Location: nairobi
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UGX 602B LOSS BEFORE TAX for year ended Dec 2024 COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,190 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:UGX 602B LOSS BEFORE TAX for year ended Dec 2024 Huge write-down of intangibles reflecting the amount that is in dispute. Shida of dealing with governments. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,716
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Dropping 10 percent every day as people bail out. What are you doing?
a) Holding: Nakaa ngumu till payment. I have time and know we will win in London.
b) Selling: I am bailing out. A shilling in hand is worth 2 in the bush.
c) Buying: I am buying. I have time to wait. Museveni will lose in London and will have to pay big time.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,713 Location: nairobi
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Kusadikika wrote:Dropping 10 percent every day as people bail out. What are you doing?
a) Holding: Nakaa ngumu till payment. I have time and know we will win in London.
b) Selling: I am bailing out. A shilling in hand is worth 2 in the bush.
c) Buying: I am buying. I have time to wait. Museveni will lose in London and will have to pay big time. Definitely selling since the unknowns are immense COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/26/2007 Posts: 30 Location: limuru
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Personally am confused. The loss is too huge (43% as of today) such that no need to bail out as damage has already been done. Considering its the largest holding I got, option is only only to hope against hope. never outshine your master......robert green
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,713 Location: nairobi
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jmichi wrote:Personally am confused. The loss is too huge (43% as of today) such that no need to bail out as damage has already been done. Considering its the largest holding I got, option is only only to hope against hope. If you are liquid enough to write off your investment in UMME as a whole without any impact on your livelihood, then you have chosen an acceptable option. Otherwise dump this skunk. Next stop KES 7.36 https://afx.kwayisi.org/nse/umme.html COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,713 Location: nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:maka wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Umeme makes first trade at NSE, electronic share transfer goes live Uganda power distributor’s shares traded for the very first time on Wednesday at the Nairobi bourse, following the activation of the regional inter-depository transfer mechanism (RITM). Umeme’s shares were cross-listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) seven months ago but the lack of an appropriate infrastructure to allow for the quick transfer of shares has hindered trading, despite the counter being one of the most traded at the Uganda Securities Exchange (USE). The counter saw a trade of 1,000 shares at the NSE at Ksh13 ($0.15) compared to 125,059 shares traded at the USE at an average price of Ush360 ($0.14). Apart from increasing the liquidity of cross-listed shares and providing exposure for the companies, investors will also be able to take advantage of pricing differences in the different markets, if they can make a profit from the strategy. ..................................................................................................................................................... Is there a platform that give live prices of counters at USE, DSE and RSE? Triangular arbitrage? That must be the technical term for this. Looks possible in these markets now that regional inter-depository transfer mechanism (RITM) has been activated. We however need live feed for counters at USE, DSE and RSE. My thoughts. Playstore USE Easy Portal COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/26/2007 Posts: 30 Location: limuru
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Based on the amount already paid by Uganda Govt and the financial results declared could any wazua help in analysis to project how much umeme would propose assuming they were fair. Additionally, does any one know arbitrition time table? I need to make a risky decision ..with my over 200k shares held.. Am trying to gather as much info as posible but in vain. never outshine your master......robert green
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,713 Location: nairobi
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jmichi wrote:Based on the amount already paid by Uganda Govt and the financial results declared could any wazua help in analysis to project how much umeme would propose assuming they were fair.
Additionally, does any one know arbitrition time table?
I need to make a risky decision ..with my over 200k shares held..
Am trying to gather as much info as posible but in vain. The current share price of Umeme Limited (UMME) is KES 11.90. Umeme began the year with a share price of 16.75 KES but has since lost 29% off that price valuation, ranking it 62nd on the NSE in terms of year-to-date performance. Shareholders’ worries are compounded by the fact that UMME has lost 24% of the stock’s value from May 20th to date. Fair value KES 7.36 COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/26/2007 Posts: 30 Location: limuru
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Disheartening .. never outshine your master......robert green
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 434 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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jmichi wrote:Based on the amount already paid by Uganda Govt and the financial results declared could any wazua help in analysis to project how much umeme would propose assuming they were fair.
Additionally, does any one know arbitrition time table?
I need to make a risky decision ..with my over 200k shares held..
Am trying to gather as much info as posible but in vain. The Uganda govt paid approximately Ksh 10 per share while Umeme are demanding a further Ksh 23.50. The Ksh 23.50 is also subject to an interest of 20 p.a for every year the outstanding amount remains unpaid from July 1st 2025. The huge loss was largely due to amortisation of intangible assets of 699bn Ugx (equivalent to all retained earnings) as provided for in international accounting....but note amortisation does not mean money moves out but rather the asset is devalued. The reported loss did help Umeme get a tax credit of Ugx 92bn. The results as at 31st March 2025 which are yet to be published and which will factor the current payout amount so far given by GoU should paint a clearer picture of actual cash at bank. Going forward towards Arbitration, Umeme has great advantage since it signed a concession agreement that hugely favoured it. The Deputy AG had even advised the GoU during computation of buyout amount that Umeme did not need to get any consent of the Uganda energy regulator for its investments to be considered for reimbursements at end of concession as per his reading of the agreement. That's part of the AG team that should be in London defending the Govt position of a lower buyout amount. I have no doubt Umeme will win a higher buy out, only question is if it will be the entire USD 292Mn or a lower amount. On timelines, London arbitration takes anywhere between 6 months to 30 months depending on the complexity of the case and the size of amount in dispute. The case in this Umeme vs GoU here seems rather straight forward as it boils down to a determination of whether Umeme needed consent and approval from Uganda Elec regulator for its investments in the Elec infrastructure as per the concession agreement; and how much of that investment done had been recovered by Umeme via tariffs before end of concession. The size of disputed amount of USD 292 Mn plus interest does however push the duration towards the 18-24 months region of determination (over 100Mn arbitration disputes take longer than those below USD 100mn). The beauty of it is that any award will factor that any buy out outstanding amount as per the concession agreement is subject to 20% interest p.a (same as rate of Elec sales return that umeme had negotiated for concession) a possibility of an extra Ksh 4.70 per share per year from 1st July 2025(90 days after end of concession). If Umeme wins the London award as it is likely to based on the lopsided concession agreement that Uganda entered into, the Umeme shareholders will get outsized rewards. Happy hunting
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,716
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stocksmaster wrote:jmichi wrote:Based on the amount already paid by Uganda Govt and the financial results declared could any wazua help in analysis to project how much umeme would propose assuming they were fair.
Additionally, does any one know arbitrition time table?
I need to make a risky decision ..with my over 200k shares held..
Am trying to gather as much info as posible but in vain. The Uganda govt paid approximately Ksh 10 per share while Umeme are demanding a further Ksh 23.50. The Ksh 23.50 is also subject to an interest of 20 p.a for every year the outstanding amount remains unpaid from July 1st 2025. The huge loss was largely due to amortisation of intangible assets of 699bn Ugx (equivalent to all retained earnings) as provided for in international accounting....but note amortisation does not mean money moves out but rather the asset is devalued. The reported loss did help Umeme get a tax credit of Ugx 92bn. The results as at 31st March 2025 which are yet to be published and which will factor the current payout amount so far given by GoU should paint a clearer picture of actual cash at bank. Going forward towards Arbitration, Umeme has great advantage since it signed a concession agreement that hugely favoured it. The Deputy AG had even advised the GoU during computation of buyout amount that Umeme did not need to get any consent of the Uganda energy regulator for its investments to be considered for reimbursements at end of concession as per his reading of the agreement. That's part of the AG team that should be in London defending the Govt position of a lower buyout amount. I have no doubt Umeme will win a higher buy out, only question is if it will be the entire USD 292Mn or a lower amount. On timelines, London arbitration takes anywhere between 6 months to 30 months depending on the complexity of the case and the size of amount in dispute. The case in this Umeme vs GoU here seems rather straight forward as it boils down to a determination of whether Umeme needed consent and approval from Uganda Elec regulator for its investments in the Elec infrastructure as per the concession agreement; and how much of that investment done had been recovered by Umeme via tariffs before end of concession. The size of disputed amount of USD 292 Mn plus interest does however push the duration towards the 18-24 months region of determination (over 100Mn arbitration disputes take longer than those below USD 100mn). The beauty of it is that any award will factor that any buy out outstanding amount as per the concession agreement is subject to 20% interest p.a (same as rate of Elec sales return that umeme had negotiated for concession) a possibility of an extra Ksh 4.70 per share per year from 1st July 2025(90 days after end of concession). If Umeme wins the London award as it is likely to based on the lopsided concession agreement that Uganda entered into, the Umeme shareholders will get outsized rewards. Happy hunting Award is one thing, collection is a different beast. Museveni can just refuse to pay. What other avenues for recovery are there other than seizing Uganda Airline planes abroad? It then falls on selling the debt to debt vultures for 10 cents on the dollar.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,713 Location: nairobi
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Kusadikika wrote:stocksmaster wrote:jmichi wrote:Based on the amount already paid by Uganda Govt and the financial results declared could any wazua help in analysis to project how much umeme would propose assuming they were fair.
Additionally, does any one know arbitrition time table?
I need to make a risky decision ..with my over 200k shares held..
Am trying to gather as much info as posible but in vain. The Uganda govt paid approximately Ksh 10 per share while Umeme are demanding a further Ksh 23.50. The Ksh 23.50 is also subject to an interest of 20 p.a for every year the outstanding amount remains unpaid from July 1st 2025. The huge loss was largely due to amortisation of intangible assets of 699bn Ugx (equivalent to all retained earnings) as provided for in international accounting....but note amortisation does not mean money moves out but rather the asset is devalued. The reported loss did help Umeme get a tax credit of Ugx 92bn. The results as at 31st March 2025 which are yet to be published and which will factor the current payout amount so far given by GoU should paint a clearer picture of actual cash at bank. Going forward towards Arbitration, Umeme has great advantage since it signed a concession agreement that hugely favoured it. The Deputy AG had even advised the GoU during computation of buyout amount that Umeme did not need to get any consent of the Uganda energy regulator for its investments to be considered for reimbursements at end of concession as per his reading of the agreement. That's part of the AG team that should be in London defending the Govt position of a lower buyout amount. I have no doubt Umeme will win a higher buy out, only question is if it will be the entire USD 292Mn or a lower amount. On timelines, London arbitration takes anywhere between 6 months to 30 months depending on the complexity of the case and the size of amount in dispute. The case in this Umeme vs GoU here seems rather straight forward as it boils down to a determination of whether Umeme needed consent and approval from Uganda Elec regulator for its investments in the Elec infrastructure as per the concession agreement; and how much of that investment done had been recovered by Umeme via tariffs before end of concession. The size of disputed amount of USD 292 Mn plus interest does however push the duration towards the 18-24 months region of determination (over 100Mn arbitration disputes take longer than those below USD 100mn). The beauty of it is that any award will factor that any buy out outstanding amount as per the concession agreement is subject to 20% interest p.a (same as rate of Elec sales return that umeme had negotiated for concession) a possibility of an extra Ksh 4.70 per share per year from 1st July 2025(90 days after end of concession). If Umeme wins the London award as it is likely to based on the lopsided concession agreement that Uganda entered into, the Umeme shareholders will get outsized rewards. Happy hunting Award is one thing, collection is a different beast. Museveni can just refuse to pay. What other avenues for recovery are there other than seizing Uganda Airline planes abroad? It then falls on selling the debt to debt vultures for 10 cents on the dollar. It could end well but it may also end badly. Already, the signs are ominous with a declining stock. My confidence on this one is low. Reminds me of ARM, UNGA COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 434 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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Kusadikika wrote:stocksmaster wrote:jmichi wrote:Based on the amount already paid by Uganda Govt and the financial results declared could any wazua help in analysis to project how much umeme would propose assuming they were fair.
Additionally, does any one know arbitrition time table?
I need to make a risky decision ..with my over 200k shares held..
Am trying to gather as much info as posible but in vain. The Uganda govt paid approximately Ksh 10 per share while Umeme are demanding a further Ksh 23.50. The Ksh 23.50 is also subject to an interest of 20 p.a for every year the outstanding amount remains unpaid from July 1st 2025. The huge loss was largely due to amortisation of intangible assets of 699bn Ugx (equivalent to all retained earnings) as provided for in international accounting....but note amortisation does not mean money moves out but rather the asset is devalued. The reported loss did help Umeme get a tax credit of Ugx 92bn. The results as at 31st March 2025 which are yet to be published and which will factor the current payout amount so far given by GoU should paint a clearer picture of actual cash at bank. Going forward towards Arbitration, Umeme has great advantage since it signed a concession agreement that hugely favoured it. The Deputy AG had even advised the GoU during computation of buyout amount that Umeme did not need to get any consent of the Uganda energy regulator for its investments to be considered for reimbursements at end of concession as per his reading of the agreement. That's part of the AG team that should be in London defending the Govt position of a lower buyout amount. I have no doubt Umeme will win a higher buy out, only question is if it will be the entire USD 292Mn or a lower amount. On timelines, London arbitration takes anywhere between 6 months to 30 months depending on the complexity of the case and the size of amount in dispute. The case in this Umeme vs GoU here seems rather straight forward as it boils down to a determination of whether Umeme needed consent and approval from Uganda Elec regulator for its investments in the Elec infrastructure as per the concession agreement; and how much of that investment done had been recovered by Umeme via tariffs before end of concession. The size of disputed amount of USD 292 Mn plus interest does however push the duration towards the 18-24 months region of determination (over 100Mn arbitration disputes take longer than those below USD 100mn). The beauty of it is that any award will factor that any buy out outstanding amount as per the concession agreement is subject to 20% interest p.a (same as rate of Elec sales return that umeme had negotiated for concession) a possibility of an extra Ksh 4.70 per share per year from 1st July 2025(90 days after end of concession). If Umeme wins the London award as it is likely to based on the lopsided concession agreement that Uganda entered into, the Umeme shareholders will get outsized rewards. Happy hunting Award is one thing, collection is a different beast. Museveni can just refuse to pay. What other avenues for recovery are there other than seizing Uganda Airline planes abroad? It then falls on selling the debt to debt vultures for 10 cents on the dollar. Uganda is a signatory to the New York Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards and the ICSID Convention. Failure to honour an arbitration award after signing these international conventions is akin to debt default as this conventions signify a country is ready for business and act as safe guards to trading entities. The cost of capital for its promising new oil sector or its energy sector in general would sky rocket. By the time any award is delivered in about 2 years time, Uganda will most likely be the newest oil producer and this period, it is projected Uganda will be growing at over 10% per annum. It would have more to loose than gain in ignoring any such award. Anyway, time will tell. Happy hunting.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 434 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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stocksmaster wrote:Kusadikika wrote:stocksmaster wrote:jmichi wrote:Based on the amount already paid by Uganda Govt and the financial results declared could any wazua help in analysis to project how much umeme would propose assuming they were fair.
Additionally, does any one know arbitrition time table?
I need to make a risky decision ..with my over 200k shares held..
Am trying to gather as much info as posible but in vain. The Uganda govt paid approximately Ksh 10 per share while Umeme are demanding a further Ksh 23.50. The Ksh 23.50 is also subject to an interest of 20 p.a for every year the outstanding amount remains unpaid from July 1st 2025. The huge loss was largely due to amortisation of intangible assets of 699bn Ugx (equivalent to all retained earnings) as provided for in international accounting....but note amortisation does not mean money moves out but rather the asset is devalued. The reported loss did help Umeme get a tax credit of Ugx 92bn. The results as at 31st March 2025 which are yet to be published and which will factor the current payout amount so far given by GoU should paint a clearer picture of actual cash at bank. Going forward towards Arbitration, Umeme has great advantage since it signed a concession agreement that hugely favoured it. The Deputy AG had even advised the GoU during computation of buyout amount that Umeme did not need to get any consent of the Uganda energy regulator for its investments to be considered for reimbursements at end of concession as per his reading of the agreement. That's part of the AG team that should be in London defending the Govt position of a lower buyout amount. I have no doubt Umeme will win a higher buy out, only question is if it will be the entire USD 292Mn or a lower amount. On timelines, London arbitration takes anywhere between 6 months to 30 months depending on the complexity of the case and the size of amount in dispute. The case in this Umeme vs GoU here seems rather straight forward as it boils down to a determination of whether Umeme needed consent and approval from Uganda Elec regulator for its investments in the Elec infrastructure as per the concession agreement; and how much of that investment done had been recovered by Umeme via tariffs before end of concession. The size of disputed amount of USD 292 Mn plus interest does however push the duration towards the 18-24 months region of determination (over 100Mn arbitration disputes take longer than those below USD 100mn). The beauty of it is that any award will factor that any buy out outstanding amount as per the concession agreement is subject to 20% interest p.a (same as rate of Elec sales return that umeme had negotiated for concession) a possibility of an extra Ksh 4.70 per share per year from 1st July 2025(90 days after end of concession). If Umeme wins the London award as it is likely to based on the lopsided concession agreement that Uganda entered into, the Umeme shareholders will get outsized rewards. Happy hunting Award is one thing, collection is a different beast. Museveni can just refuse to pay. What other avenues for recovery are there other than seizing Uganda Airline planes abroad? It then falls on selling the debt to debt vultures for 10 cents on the dollar. Uganda is a signatory to the New York Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards and the ICSID Convention. Failure to honour an arbitration award after signing these international conventions is akin to debt default as this conventions signify a country is ready for business and act as safe guards to trading entities. The cost of capital for its promising new oil sector or its energy sector in general would sky rocket. By the time any award is delivered in about 2 years time, Uganda will most likely be the newest oil producer and this period, it is projected Uganda will be growing at over 10% per annum. It would have more to loose than gain in ignoring any such award. Anyway, time will tell. Happy hunting. Umeme declares an interim dividend of UGx 222 (about Ksh 8) per share to be paid on 31st July. https://x.com/MwangoCapi...rgcO33k6c51wmQ&s=19
Happy hunting.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,713 Location: nairobi
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stocksmaster wrote:stocksmaster wrote:Kusadikika wrote:stocksmaster wrote:jmichi wrote:Based on the amount already paid by Uganda Govt and the financial results declared could any wazua help in analysis to project how much umeme would propose assuming they were fair.
Additionally, does any one know arbitrition time table?
I need to make a risky decision ..with my over 200k shares held..
Am trying to gather as much info as posible but in vain. The Uganda govt paid approximately Ksh 10 per share while Umeme are demanding a further Ksh 23.50. The Ksh 23.50 is also subject to an interest of 20 p.a for every year the outstanding amount remains unpaid from July 1st 2025. The huge loss was largely due to amortisation of intangible assets of 699bn Ugx (equivalent to all retained earnings) as provided for in international accounting....but note amortisation does not mean money moves out but rather the asset is devalued. The reported loss did help Umeme get a tax credit of Ugx 92bn. The results as at 31st March 2025 which are yet to be published and which will factor the current payout amount so far given by GoU should paint a clearer picture of actual cash at bank. Going forward towards Arbitration, Umeme has great advantage since it signed a concession agreement that hugely favoured it. The Deputy AG had even advised the GoU during computation of buyout amount that Umeme did not need to get any consent of the Uganda energy regulator for its investments to be considered for reimbursements at end of concession as per his reading of the agreement. That's part of the AG team that should be in London defending the Govt position of a lower buyout amount. I have no doubt Umeme will win a higher buy out, only question is if it will be the entire USD 292Mn or a lower amount. On timelines, London arbitration takes anywhere between 6 months to 30 months depending on the complexity of the case and the size of amount in dispute. The case in this Umeme vs GoU here seems rather straight forward as it boils down to a determination of whether Umeme needed consent and approval from Uganda Elec regulator for its investments in the Elec infrastructure as per the concession agreement; and how much of that investment done had been recovered by Umeme via tariffs before end of concession. The size of disputed amount of USD 292 Mn plus interest does however push the duration towards the 18-24 months region of determination (over 100Mn arbitration disputes take longer than those below USD 100mn). The beauty of it is that any award will factor that any buy out outstanding amount as per the concession agreement is subject to 20% interest p.a (same as rate of Elec sales return that umeme had negotiated for concession) a possibility of an extra Ksh 4.70 per share per year from 1st July 2025(90 days after end of concession). If Umeme wins the London award as it is likely to based on the lopsided concession agreement that Uganda entered into, the Umeme shareholders will get outsized rewards. Happy hunting Award is one thing, collection is a different beast. Museveni can just refuse to pay. What other avenues for recovery are there other than seizing Uganda Airline planes abroad? It then falls on selling the debt to debt vultures for 10 cents on the dollar. Uganda is a signatory to the New York Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards and the ICSID Convention. Failure to honour an arbitration award after signing these international conventions is akin to debt default as this conventions signify a country is ready for business and act as safe guards to trading entities. The cost of capital for its promising new oil sector or its energy sector in general would sky rocket. By the time any award is delivered in about 2 years time, Uganda will most likely be the newest oil producer and this period, it is projected Uganda will be growing at over 10% per annum. It would have more to loose than gain in ignoring any such award. Anyway, time will tell. Happy hunting. Umeme declares an interim dividend of UGx 222 (about Ksh 8) per share to be paid on 31st July. https://x.com/MwangoCapi...rgcO33k6c51wmQ&s=19
Happy hunting. A Russian roulette COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/19/2006 Posts: 118 Location: Mombasa
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Is the news FAKE? Why is the financial year ending 31st Dec. 2025? I am confused! haha... AM I? Sound that I love most: Is the ringing bell of Stock Market.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/19/2006 Posts: 118 Location: Mombasa
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GENUINE NEWS! Ksh. 8 interim is equivalent to over 40% Return at closing of Ksh. 19.25 Sound that I love most: Is the ringing bell of Stock Market.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 434 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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yaserbigchair wrote:Is the news FAKE?
Why is the financial year ending 31st Dec. 2025?
I am confused!
haha... AM I? The year ending 31st Dec 2024 had no final dividend. The interim dividend is for this year (1st Jan to 31st Dec 2025). Happy Hunting
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,713 Location: nairobi
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yaserbigchair wrote:GENUINE NEWS!
Ksh. 8 interim is equivalent to over 40% Return at closing of Ksh. 19.25 Those inside are strong, strong but trapped. Yes, the shareholders will receive the KES 8, but collateral damage reeks. Looking forward to ex dividend date 14.07.2025 share correction. Interesting times to be alive COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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