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Portfolio Balancing: Avoid Over Exposure To Financial Sector
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,696 Location: nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:EQTY -8%, SCBK -12%, SBIC -24% down on PBT for Q1 2025. Watch and learn And the rest??? One can subjectively selected data to say whatever they want. List for all the banks you normally track in the other thread and their percentage increase or decrease and then tell us what you are trying to say. You can't pick 3 out 10 banks and try to push a certain narrative while totally ignoring the other 7 surely unless you trying to be dishonest. Flat growth? An oxymoron. I hold the right to free speech. Watch and learn
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,696 Location: nairobi
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In tier II and III, five banks are loss making as at end of Q1. FIVE!
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,915
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I saw Equity Bank price projection of Kshs. 98 by Q1, 2026. Hype! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,696 Location: nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:I saw Equity Bank price projection of Kshs. 98 by Q1, 2026. Hype! Bollocks
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,535
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obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:EQTY -8%, SCBK -12%, SBIC -24% down on PBT for Q1 2025. Watch and learn And the rest??? One can subjectively selected data to say whatever they want. List for all the banks you normally track in the other thread and their percentage increase or decrease and then tell us what you are trying to say. You can't pick 3 out 10 banks and try to push a certain narrative while totally ignoring the other 7 surely unless you trying to be dishonest. Flat growth? An oxymoron. I hold the right to free speech. Watch and learn What am I learning from subjectively selected data which is an outlier You make a generic statement about an industry and then selectively pick data for 3 and ignore data for 7 to prove what exactly?? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,535
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obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:EQTY -8%, SCBK -12%, SBIC -24% down on PBT for Q1 2025. Watch and learn And the rest??? One can subjectively selected data to say whatever they want. List for all the banks you normally track in the other thread and their percentage increase or decrease and then tell us what you are trying to say. You can't pick 3 out 10 banks and try to push a certain narrative while totally ignoring the other 7 surely unless you trying to be dishonest. Flat growth? An oxymoron. I hold the right to free speech. Watch and learn https://www.citizen.digital/business/equity-group-ceo-james-mwangi-addresses-mass-layoffs-n363709Dr. Mwangi was speaking during the release of the bank's quarter one results, where the lender's earnings dropped to Ksh.15.4 billion on the back of high inflation and currency depreciation in South Sudan. In the period ending March, the lender saw customer deposits increase by 7 percent to Ksh.1.32 trillion, allowing them to disburse Ksh.804.7 billion in credit, a 3 percent increase. In the first quarter of the year, the Kenyan business showed strong recovery, outpacing the regional businesses in key metrics, contributing 53% to the lender's deposit growth, 52 percent growth to the loan book, and 51 percent to revenue growth among others. “South Sudan is going through a very difficult period, with the stoppage of exports of oil and as a result its currency has significantly lost value against the US dollar and the Kenya shilling, so inflation has been high,” noted Dr. Mwangi. “What has happened is there is an inflationary reporting that we did last year which contributed Ksh.3 billion but this year the inflation has remained stable so there is nothing to register in South Sudan. So it's not that profit has gone down it's up by 8 percent but when you add the inflation accounting last year in South Sudan it looks like it has gone down by 4%.”Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,535
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Angelica _ann wrote:I saw Equity Bank price projection of Kshs. 98 by Q1, 2026. Hype! 100% plus gain in one year??? Because of why?? Did the people giving the projection give their reasoning, data etc. or they said "Watch and learn"??  Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,044 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Dull or lack lustre trading this year for banking stocks based on slow Q1. Capital gains may not be a good approach nonetheles dividend income is assured. . THOUGH Capital gain opportunity exists for HFCK and possibly I&M based on their Q1 2025 performance . The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,696 Location: nairobi
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young wrote:Dull or lack lustre trading this year for banking stocks based on slow Q1.
Capital gains may not be a good approach
nonetheles dividend income is assured.
.
THOUGH
Capital gain opportunity exists for
HFCK and possible I&M based on their Q1 2025 performance .
The naked truth
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,187 Location: Nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:EQTY -8%, SCBK -12%, SBIC -24% down on PBT for Q1 2025. Watch and learn And the rest??? One can subjectively selected data to say whatever they want. List for all the banks you normally track in the other thread and their percentage increase or decrease and then tell us what you are trying to say. You can't pick 3 out 10 banks and try to push a certain narrative while totally ignoring the other 7 surely unless you trying to be dishonest. Flat growth? An oxymoron. I hold the right to free speech. Watch and learn What am I learning from subjectively selected data which is an outlier You make a generic statement about an industry and then selectively pick data for 3 and ignore data for 7 to prove what exactly?? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,696 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:EQTY -8%, SCBK -12%, SBIC -24% down on PBT for Q1 2025. Watch and learn And the rest??? One can subjectively selected data to say whatever they want. List for all the banks you normally track in the other thread and their percentage increase or decrease and then tell us what you are trying to say. You can't pick 3 out 10 banks and try to push a certain narrative while totally ignoring the other 7 surely unless you trying to be dishonest. Flat growth? An oxymoron. I hold the right to free speech. Watch and learn What am I learning from subjectively selected data which is an outlier You make a generic statement about an industry and then selectively pick data for 3 and ignore data for 7 to prove what exactly?? https://www.businessdail...in-first-quarter-5063682
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,075
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Given the ailing economy, flat line returns in the banking sector indicate resilience. Most other sectors including your favoured real estate are currently offering declining returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,696 Location: nairobi
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My 2 cents wrote:Given the ailing economy, flat line returns in the banking sector indicate resilience. Most other sectors including your favoured real estate are currently offering declining returns. Hi 2cents. I'm yet to see a drop in my rental income earnings but I understand what you are saying
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,696 Location: nairobi
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CBR 9.75%
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,766 Location: NAIROBI
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Inconsequential Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,696 Location: nairobi
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It's single digit baby. Hasn't been in that zone since 29.05.2023. Highly consequential
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,610
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obiero wrote:It's single digit baby. Hasn't been in that zone since 29.05.2023. Highly consequential We are about to experience Friedman's interest rate fallacy, identifying tight money with high interest rates and easy money with low interest rate. Will banks lend more when NPLs are inching closer to 18%? What are the profitable investment opportunities balanced with risk at that 9.75% rate? Ordinary kenyans obtain credit at >1% per month so most prudent will now go into liability management which means pay down debt aggressively which effectively removing money from circulation. @obiero has given the first example, using his coop dividends to pay his expressway liabilities instead of re-investment.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,187 Location: Nairobi
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wukan wrote:obiero wrote:It's single digit baby. Hasn't been in that zone since 29.05.2023. Highly consequential We are about to experience Friedman's interest rate fallacy, identifying tight money with high interest rates and easy money with low interest rate. Will banks lend more when NPLs are inching closer to 18%? What are the profitable investment opportunities balanced with risk at that 9.75% rate? Ordinary kenyans obtain credit at >1% per month so most prudent will now go into liability management which means pay down debt aggressively which effectively removing money from circulation. @obiero has given the first example, using his coop dividends to pay his expressway liabilities instead of re-investment. @Obiero amelipa madeni? Yaani, he is not in the same WhatsApp group na KQ? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,696 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:wukan wrote:obiero wrote:It's single digit baby. Hasn't been in that zone since 29.05.2023. Highly consequential We are about to experience Friedman's interest rate fallacy, identifying tight money with high interest rates and easy money with low interest rate. Will banks lend more when NPLs are inching closer to 18%? What are the profitable investment opportunities balanced with risk at that 9.75% rate? Ordinary kenyans obtain credit at >1% per month so most prudent will now go into liability management which means pay down debt aggressively which effectively removing money from circulation. @obiero has given the first example, using his coop dividends to pay his expressway liabilities instead of re-investment. @Obiero amelipa madeni? Yaani, he is not in the same WhatsApp group na KQ? Haha. Zero debt mzee wangu. I am approaching retirement. Meanwhile as Bill Graham pointed out, when the treasury bill/bond rates rise, the stock market falls and the reverse applies. This is a global truth. Thank me later
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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