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Playing the Market............. 2025
VituVingiSana
#81 Posted : Thursday, May 15, 2025 3:30:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,185
Location: Nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:
watesh wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
Observations from KCB 54th AGM Notice (and integrated report) to be held in 3 weeks time:
1. NBK Sale still on the cards since it's one of the special businesses listed for shareholders
approval.
2. Some of the NBK assets and liabilities will be retained by KCB although 100% of the issued share capital will be acquired by Access BANK.
3. One of the reasons for low dividend pay out ratio despite a hefty EPS is need for capital preservation for regional expansion with Ethiopia being mentioned in the CEOs remarks as a likely regional play.
4. Curiously, their is no mention of the DRC Instruction 18 that requires foreign banks to ensure 45% shareholding by locals hence KCB (and Equity) both with about 85% shareholding in their DRC subsidiaries having until Dec 2026 (about 18 months) to offload 30% of their shareholdings in these DRC subsidiaries so as to reduce their shareholdings to the 55% foreign shareholding limit. This is the same rule that has stalled the NBK sale to Access bank since the Nigerian Banks regulator placed it as a precondition (Access bank complying with the DRC Instruction 18 in its DRC subsidiary) before approving the purchase.

https://kcbgroup.com/integrated-reports

Happy hunting.


Another reason for the low dividend payout was that subsidiaries don't remit any dividend to the group so all the burden falls on KCB Kenya, which was having to buff up its capital. I don't see it going above a 30% payout in the short term


Next year will be very interesting for both Equity and KCB Group shareholders when they both have to sell 30% of their DRC operations to locals (the 2nd largest subsidiaries in both assets and profitability after Kenya for both) due to the requirement to reduce foreign ownership to not more than 55%.
Hard task in the absence of a DRC stock exchange.

Happy Hunting

If there was an exchange then they could be sold to the public BUT this feels like a set-up to force them to "sell" shares to connected folks in the DRC government.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
DtheK
#82 Posted : Thursday, May 15, 2025 3:42:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/15/2010
Posts: 145
Location: Kenya
That DRC instruction 18 is not well thought out, though I can appreciate it's populist appeal. It will not serve them well in attracting investors. Their efforts would be better directed at creating good capital markets, then foreign banks wouldn't have an issue (cross)listing in a DRC exchange.
If there'll be capable & qualified buyers, well a special dividend might just materialize.
For FY 2025 KCB has no business denying 30% of EPS as dividend. If they do small shareholders should make a stink, and kick out as many directors without shareholding as possible.
DtheK
#83 Posted : Thursday, May 15, 2025 3:51:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/15/2010
Posts: 145
Location: Kenya
stocksmaster wrote:
Update on the Umeme 30 days good faith negotiations:

https://x.com/USEUganda/...uHeuY88jekH_Kw&s=19

Happy hunting.

Note the language here. It is GOU that asked for the extension of negotiations to 20th,if you know your case is weak you're not too eager to go to court/arbitration.
Also note that GOU had asked parliament for a greater amount than the Auditor quoted.
A reason for hope.
Anyway 31st May it is.
stocksmaster
#84 Posted : Thursday, May 15, 2025 4:11:40 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 427
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
VituVingiSana wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
watesh wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
Observations from KCB 54th AGM Notice (and integrated report) to be held in 3 weeks time:
1. NBK Sale still on the cards since it's one of the special businesses listed for shareholders
approval.
2. Some of the NBK assets and liabilities will be retained by KCB although 100% of the issued share capital will be acquired by Access BANK.
3. One of the reasons for low dividend pay out ratio despite a hefty EPS is need for capital preservation for regional expansion with Ethiopia being mentioned in the CEOs remarks as a likely regional play.
4. Curiously, their is no mention of the DRC Instruction 18 that requires foreign banks to ensure 45% shareholding by locals hence KCB (and Equity) both with about 85% shareholding in their DRC subsidiaries having until Dec 2026 (about 18 months) to offload 30% of their shareholdings in these DRC subsidiaries so as to reduce their shareholdings to the 55% foreign shareholding limit. This is the same rule that has stalled the NBK sale to Access bank since the Nigerian Banks regulator placed it as a precondition (Access bank complying with the DRC Instruction 18 in its DRC subsidiary) before approving the purchase.

https://kcbgroup.com/integrated-reports

Happy hunting.


Another reason for the low dividend payout was that subsidiaries don't remit any dividend to the group so all the burden falls on KCB Kenya, which was having to buff up its capital. I don't see it going above a 30% payout in the short term


Next year will be very interesting for both Equity and KCB Group shareholders when they both have to sell 30% of their DRC operations to locals (the 2nd largest subsidiaries in both assets and profitability after Kenya for both) due to the requirement to reduce foreign ownership to not more than 55%.
Hard task in the absence of a DRC stock exchange.

Happy Hunting

If there was an exchange then they could be sold to the public BUT this feels like a set-up to force them to "sell" shares to connected folks in the DRC government.


My thoughts exactly. A forced sale is on the cards and at a song to the ruling class. Access bank seems unable to sell about half of a relatively smaller subsidiary (as a precondition by Central Bank of Nigeria in order to approve the NBK acquisition in Kenya). The DRC banks will have to spearhead creation of a stock exchange in DRC (similar to what's happening in Ethiopia where the banks seem to have taken the lead in creating a stock exchange) in order to navigate this issue.

Happy Hunting.
stocksmaster
#85 Posted : Thursday, May 15, 2025 4:35:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 427
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
DtheK wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
Update on the Umeme 30 days good faith negotiations:

https://x.com/USEUganda/...uHeuY88jekH_Kw&s=19

Happy hunting.

Note the language here. It is GOU that asked for the extension of negotiations to 20th,if you know your case is weak you're not too eager to go to court/arbitration.
Also note that GOU had asked parliament for a greater amount than the Auditor quoted.
A reason for hope.
Anyway 31st May it is.


An arbitration case in London and a subsequent likely loss would not be in the best interests of the GoU which is trying to attract foreign investments or capital into its energy (oil and electricity) sector as it increases the risk factor for such investments in Uganda (some paper mentions upto almost 6% increase in cost of capital as the country gets perceived as a high risk investment where the state does not respect agreements).

A likely outcome is the goverment reverting to the original cabinet approved amount for which a loan had also already been approved of about USD 190-200Mn although this still falls short of the 234mn demand by Umeme. The Concession agreement also had a threshold of any contested amount above USD 7mn being subject to Arbitration in London. I therefore foresee a very likely London arbitration case.

It is also worth noting that it seems the Board and Management (CEO) are interested in pursuing alternative related opportunities as opposed to folding the company. The Chairman is quoted as saying:
"Zanzibar, Somalia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Cameroon and Tanzania – they have all come to study our model,” he said. “We may consider these offers, but first we must tidy up at home.”.......“We’ve built a very strong brand,the shareholders will decide what next — whether to wrap it up or pursue new business opportunities. Either way, Umeme’s track record remains intact.”

https://deepearthint.com...oney-at-agm-next-month/

It will be an interesting AGM as shareholders decide on way forward....wether to reinvest and take only a dividend or fold the company and cannibalize the assets, share reserves etc.

Happy Hunting
VituVingiSana
#86 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2025 1:41:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,185
Location: Nairobi
IMHO, Ugandans would have been better served by (the powers-that-be) asking for a better deal with UMEME than the current path taken which will give more "connected" folks more fingers in the pie.

GoU could have asked for "free" preferred shares in UMEME as a condition for renewal of the contract.
Or a direct ordinary shareholding. Or better terms eg lower fees, additional investment, higher efficiencies, etc.

Watch UMEME become what KPLC was prior to the current board when scams, tariff games and political appointments were the norm.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
stocksmaster
#87 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2025 8:43:39 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 427
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
stocksmaster wrote:
Observations from KCB 54th AGM Notice (and integrated report) to be held in 3 weeks time:
1. NBK Sale still on the cards since it's one of the special businesses listed for shareholders
approval.
2. Some of the NBK assets and liabilities will be retained by KCB although 100% of the issued share capital will be acquired by Access BANK.
3. One of the reasons for low dividend pay out ratio despite a hefty EPS is need for capital preservation for regional expansion with Ethiopia being mentioned in the CEOs remarks as a likely regional play.
4. Curiously, their is no mention of the DRC Instruction 18 that requires foreign banks to ensure 45% shareholding by locals hence KCB (and Equity) both with about 85% shareholding in their DRC subsidiaries having until Dec 2026 (about 18 months) to offload 30% of their shareholdings in these DRC subsidiaries so as to reduce their shareholdings to the 55% foreign shareholding limit. This is the same rule that has stalled the NBK sale to Access bank since the Nigerian Banks regulator placed it as a precondition (Access bank complying with the DRC Instruction 18 in its DRC subsidiary) before approving the purchase.

https://kcbgroup.com/integrated-reports

Happy hunting.


Additional observation on the NBK sale:

It seems the NBK Hive Out Agreement which retains some NBK assets and liabilities with KCB was signed 4.5 Months later (15th August) after the original sale agreement and announcement (signed 31st March). This is curious since the original terms of a sale price of 1.25 Book Value were retained despite Access Bank likely getting an opportunity to offload the NPLs (and most likely any pending NBK litigations like the Criticos case and award that forced the sale due to sinking NBK into looses) back to KCB. KCB Shareholders I believe should be given full disclosure of this hive out agreement since it's already been signed on 15th August last year prior to approving the sale.

On the other hand, retaining the NBK NPLs presents an opportunity for KCB to derive more value from the transaction if this NPLs have assets as security which can be auctioned for loan recovery.

https://kcbgroup.com/shareholder-meetings

Happy Hunting.

obiero
#88 Posted : Sunday, May 18, 2025 7:05:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,695
Location: nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:
DtheK wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
Update on the Umeme 30 days good faith negotiations:

https://x.com/USEUganda/...uHeuY88jekH_Kw&s=19

Happy hunting.

Note the language here. It is GOU that asked for the extension of negotiations to 20th,if you know your case is weak you're not too eager to go to court/arbitration.
Also note that GOU had asked parliament for a greater amount than the Auditor quoted.
A reason for hope.
Anyway 31st May it is.


An arbitration case in London and a subsequent likely loss would not be in the best interests of the GoU which is trying to attract foreign investments or capital into its energy (oil and electricity) sector as it increases the risk factor for such investments in Uganda (some paper mentions upto almost 6% increase in cost of capital as the country gets perceived as a high risk investment where the state does not respect agreements).

A likely outcome is the goverment reverting to the original cabinet approved amount for which a loan had also already been approved of about USD 190-200Mn although this still falls short of the 234mn demand by Umeme. The Concession agreement also had a threshold of any contested amount above USD 7mn being subject to Arbitration in London. I therefore foresee a very likely London arbitration case.

It is also worth noting that it seems the Board and Management (CEO) are interested in pursuing alternative related opportunities as opposed to folding the company. The Chairman is quoted as saying:
"Zanzibar, Somalia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Cameroon and Tanzania – they have all come to study our model,” he said. “We may consider these offers, but first we must tidy up at home.”.......“We’ve built a very strong brand,the shareholders will decide what next — whether to wrap it up or pursue new business opportunities. Either way, Umeme’s track record remains intact.”

https://deepearthint.com...oney-at-agm-next-month/

It will be an interesting AGM as shareholders decide on way forward....wether to reinvest and take only a dividend or fold the company and cannibalize the assets, share reserves etc.

Happy Hunting

In 2025, and we still need London to arbitrate an African dispute. Why not Lusaka or Accra. Cry Africa, cry

COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
jmichi
#89 Posted : Sunday, May 18, 2025 4:04:16 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/26/2007
Posts: 27
Location: limuru
Crossing my fingers knowing too well 75% of my holding is tied in here with an average buying price way too high at 15.9.
never outshine your master......robert green
Kusadikika
#90 Posted : Saturday, May 31, 2025 9:53:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,711
Umeme case heading to London for arbitration. It could be a long ride. The Uganda NSSF has to go to London to try get the Government of Uganda to pay🤔. Or could the NSSF make a separate deal with the government waturuke?
stocksmaster
#91 Posted : Saturday, May 31, 2025 10:54:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 427
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
Update on Umeme:
Umeme Board has indicated arbitration in London is the next step and for USD 292M (about Ksh 23.50 per share). This would bring the final buy out to 410M USD (KSh 33 per share) if they are able to secure the whole arbitration amount. The good faith negotiations seem to have only agreed on some pending payments (2025 investments) which should be worth about 10M USD. The 2024 results to be published by 12th June with AGM in August. Some of the already paid buy out amount and profits for 2024 should trickle to share holders as they decide on way forward on the company.

Update on KCB:
The NBK sale has been finalised. This makes H1 results to be very interesting with both an interim and special dividend very likely.

Happy Hunting
young
#92 Posted : Sunday, June 01, 2025 12:12:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,044
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
stocksmaster wrote:
Update on Umeme:
Umeme Board has indicated arbitration in London is the next step and for USD 292M (about Ksh 23.50 per share). This would bring the final buy out to 410M USD (KSh 33 per share) if they are able to secure the whole arbitration amount. The good faith negotiations seem to have only agreed on some pending payments (2025 investments) which should be worth about 10M USD. The 2024 results to be published by 12th June with AGM in August. Some of the already paid buy out amount and profits for 2024 should trickle to share holders as they decide on way forward on the company.

Update on KCB:
The NBK sale has been finalised. This makes H1 results to be very interesting with both an interim and special dividend very likely.

Happy Hunting





Yes sales processe concluded from our CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria) end.


https://punchng.com/acce...isition-of-kenyas-bank/

The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
young
#93 Posted : Sunday, June 01, 2025 12:14:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,044
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
stocksmaster wrote:
Update on Umeme:
Umeme Board has indicated arbitration in London is the next step and for USD 292M (about Ksh 23.50 per share). This would bring the final buy out to 410M USD (KSh 33 per share) if they are able to secure the whole arbitration amount. The good faith negotiations seem to have only agreed on some pending payments (2025 investments) which should be worth about 10M USD. The 2024 results to be published by 12th June with AGM in August. Some of the already paid buy out amount and profits for 2024 should trickle to share holders as they decide on way forward on the company.

Update on KCB:
The NBK sale has been finalised. This makes H1 results to be very interesting with both an interim and special dividend very likely.

Happy Hunting





Yes sales process concluded from our CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria) end.


https://punchng.com/acce...isition-of-kenyas-bank/

But Special dividend from KCB very doubtful.
KCB need cash to inject for overseas expansion like Ethiopia etc etc

The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Ericsson
#94 Posted : Sunday, June 01, 2025 11:24:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,766
Location: NAIROBI
stocksmaster wrote:
Update on Umeme:
Umeme Board has indicated arbitration in London is the next step and for USD 292M (about Ksh 23.50 per share). This would bring the final buy out to 410M USD (KSh 33 per share) if they are able to secure the whole arbitration amount. The good faith negotiations seem to have only agreed on some pending payments (2025 investments) which should be worth about 10M USD. The 2024 results to be published by 12th June with AGM in August. Some of the already paid buy out amount and profits for 2024 should trickle to share holders as they decide on way forward on the company.

Update on KCB:
The NBK sale has been finalised. This makes H1 results to be very interesting with both an interim and special dividend very likely.

Happy Hunting



H1 results will still include NBK for the 5 months it was still under KCB
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
stocksmaster
#95 Posted : Friday, June 06, 2025 9:29:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 427
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
Ericsson wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
Update on Umeme:
Umeme Board has indicated arbitration in London is the next step and for USD 292M (about Ksh 23.50 per share). This would bring the final buy out to 410M USD (KSh 33 per share) if they are able to secure the whole arbitration amount. The good faith negotiations seem to have only agreed on some pending payments (2025 investments) which should be worth about 10M USD. The 2024 results to be published by 12th June with AGM in August. Some of the already paid buy out amount and profits for 2024 should trickle to share holders as they decide on way forward on the company.

Update on KCB:
The NBK sale has been finalised. This makes H1 results to be very interesting with both an interim and special dividend very likely.

Happy Hunting



H1 results will still include NBK for the 5 months it was still under KCB


Seems KCB entry into Ethiopia is happening soon most likely with the proceeds from the NBK sale.

https://x.com/MwangoCapi...kSF-kyJdH8GFNA&s=19

Happy hunting.
Ericsson
#96 Posted : Monday, June 09, 2025 12:22:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,766
Location: NAIROBI
stocksmaster wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
Update on Umeme:
Umeme Board has indicated arbitration in London is the next step and for USD 292M (about Ksh 23.50 per share). This would bring the final buy out to 410M USD (KSh 33 per share) if they are able to secure the whole arbitration amount. The good faith negotiations seem to have only agreed on some pending payments (2025 investments) which should be worth about 10M USD. The 2024 results to be published by 12th June with AGM in August. Some of the already paid buy out amount and profits for 2024 should trickle to share holders as they decide on way forward on the company.

Update on KCB:
The NBK sale has been finalised. This makes H1 results to be very interesting with both an interim and special dividend very likely.

Happy Hunting



H1 results will still include NBK for the 5 months it was still under KCB


Seems KCB entry into Ethiopia is happening soon most likely with the proceeds from the NBK sale.

https://x.com/MwangoCapi...kSF-kyJdH8GFNA&s=19

Happy hunting.


Seems so,the entry into Ethiopia might happen by end of the year
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
heri
#97 Posted : Thursday, June 12, 2025 1:17:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 855
Location: nairobi
heri wrote:
[quote=stocksmaster]In the last year and more so the last month, the NSE Equities market has shown recovery from a prolonged slump. As T bills approach single digits returns, smart money has started flowing into the equities market which are still heavily discounted. Several counters have started approaching their true market value but a few still present opportunities for outsized returns. As money exits treasury bills and bonds, it will be seeking equities that can deliver similar returns to the 2024 interest rates of 15-18% (through mainly dividends but also potential capital gains)
The following are my picks for 2025 (in order of priority)

1. KCB (Current Price: Ksh 41.50; Target Price range Ksh 60-65 by Dec 31st 2025); About 50% Upside

Currently the most undervalued bank share, the bank is on course to report a net profit of Ksh 60bn (about Ksh 18 earnings per share) despite havings NPLs worth over 215bn as at 3rd quarter (18.5% of loan portfolio).The dividend policy for KCB is to distribute upto 50% of net earnings. A conservative dividend of 35% of net earnings could mean a dividend of Ksh 6.50 for 2024 (deduct Ksh 1.50 interim dividend for a potential final dividend of Ksh 5.00). It is also in the process of selling National Bank of Kenya, its subsidiary, to Access bank by March 2025. The value of the transaction as at Q3 2024 was 1.25 x 12bn (book value) = Ksh 15bn. By March 2025, the NBK value should be about 16bn, hence about Ksh 5 per KCB share which presents a possibility for a special dividend of about Ksh 2 (if 40% of the sale are distributed). Add half year interim dividend 2025 of about Ksh 1.50 - 2.00 , and this adds up to about 20% in potential dividends in the next 9 months.
The Ksh 215bn NPLs representing 18.5% of loan portfolio while presenting a risk to investment, also provides a major opportunity since a major recovery in this ratio would turbo charge profits for 2025.

2. UMEME (Current Price: Ksh 16.75; Target Price-Concession buy out price of Ksh 20 plus dividends/retained earnings of Ksh 5-10); About 50% upside within the next 90 days.

The 20 year Umeme Concession ends on 28th February 2025 and with the Uganda government having decided not to renew it, are bond by the concession agreement to pay Umeme for all unrecovered investments plus a 5% premium by 31st March 2025. Current estimates of the buy out amount ranges from USD 225M (Uganda Energy PS estimate in early 2024) to 255M (latest Uganda Govt estimate in Oct 2024) to 283M (Umeme Management Estimate). With 1.62bn shares, that works out to between Ksh 18 - 20.5 - 22.70 (Median of about Ksh 20.5). The company after the end of the concession will most likely delist from both the Nairobi and Uganda stocks exchanges. This means distribution of buy out amount and shareholders equity and 2024 earnings to the shareholders. (The company cleared all its long term debt by Dec 2023). Retained earnings as at June 2024 were worth about Ksh 10 per share and translation reserves about Ksh 4.50.As at Half year 2024, total shareholder equity was worth about Ksh 17 per share.
Depending on the direction the company decides to take after the concession lapses on 31st March 2025, the next 90 days could deliver some outsized returns to the shareholders. It is worth noting that any delay in payment by Uganda Govt after March 31st will attract an interest of 10% p.a btw days 30-45; 15% p.a btw days 46-90 days and 20% p.a after day 90 until the amount is settled in full.
It should however be noted that this is a highly speculative 90 day play that has many variables e.g the Auditor General of Uganda whose mandated to audit the Umeme Investments may refuse to recognize some of the investments hence reducing the buy out amount; African politics may come into play although almost a quarter of Umeme is held by the NSSF Uganda; lack of budget allocation to support the buyout (the amount was not captured in the June 2024-2025 budget hence indicating potential delays) etc., potential last minute renewal of the concession but at lower margins for Umeme (the 20% guaranteed returns were one of the issues the GoU had with the agreement and are hoping for a partner that can assure much less for cheaper elec).

3. KENGEN (Current Price: 3.64; Target Price Ksh 5.00); About 40% Upside

KenGen is currently trading at a dividend yield of almost 18%. The government policy that is partially responsible for government trading entities to pay at least 80% of earnings as dividends is still in place upto end of June 2025 and this was incorporated into the performance contracts of the CEOs of these parastatals. The company is also expected to get a windfall of over Ksh 4.1bn by end of 1st half of current financial year from selling about 70% of its carbon credits (the carbon credits amount adds up to almost same amount being paid as dividends for financial year ending June 2024). With stability of the Ksh versus dollar and a more liquid KPLC (paying its debts due to KenGen within their 40 day agreement; KPLC owed KenGen about 17bn as at June 2024 and paid fines for late payments amounting to 710mn for financial year ending June 2024). Shortage of power in Western Kenya has also seen the revival of KenGens Muhoroni Gas Turbines last month which will inject 60MW to the grid. This power purchase agreement with KPLC had expired in June 2023 and the plant had been subsequently shut. In November 2024, the plant has supplied 688,650 kWh in it first month after revival. Projects geared at increasing KenGens power generation capacity are also ongoing and should in the long term increase the electricity generation capacity of the company. It is also engaged in an Africa wide geothermal drilling which is earning the company additional revenue from its leadership in this market niche.
I anticipate at least a dividend of Ksh 0.65 for financial year 2025 which should propel the price towards the Ksh 5.00 – 5.50 by October 2025.

4. BAT (Current Price: Ksh 376; Target Price Ksh 450); About 20% upside

BAT has been heavily penalized by the market following the inability to acquire a license to start production of oral nicotine pouches despite having a factory to manufacture the same since 2019 (5 years old). This has forced the company to sell the machinery (from July 2024) and shelve the nicotine pouches idea.
BAT is currently trading at a dividend yield of 13.3%. Despite the half year 2024 EPS falling from Ksh 28.22 to Ksh 21.36, the interim dividend was retained at Ksh 5. The 24% drop in earnings was attributed to a 10% drop in net revenue, foreign exchange losses from its exports amid a strengthening shilling, and a 700M increase in costs of repaying loans due to the foreign exchange movements. The nicotine pouches issue clearly destabilized the company with capital tied up (the factory investment was reported at Ksh 2.5bn) and human resource that must have been scaled up for this operation. The 19th December 2024 communication to staff on imminent staff reduction exercise to drive efficiencies and optimize operations highlights this fact. With a 2024 EPS of about 43-45, and a policy of distributing 85-90% of earnings, a final dividend of Ksh 35-40 is likely. BAT has retained earnings of over 10Bn which can be tapped into to maintain dividends at similar levels to last financial year. The sale of the nicotine pouches factory machinery should also generate some salvage value of at least 1bn – 1.5bn from this investment). Should it maintain its dividends in the Ksh 45-50, the share should reclaim its true value of about Ksh 450 (10% dividend yield).

Happy Hunting in 2025



Your price target for Kengen already here before Oct
heri
#98 Posted : Thursday, June 12, 2025 1:20:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 855
Location: nairobi
Did I see that the sale of the carbon credits did not go through?
stocksmaster
#99 Posted : Thursday, June 12, 2025 6:04:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 427
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
Ericsson wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
Update on Umeme:
Umeme Board has indicated arbitration in London is the next step and for USD 292M (about Ksh 23.50 per share). This would bring the final buy out to 410M USD (KSh 33 per share) if they are able to secure the whole arbitration amount. The good faith negotiations seem to have only agreed on some pending payments (2025 investments) which should be worth about 10M USD. The 2024 results to be published by 12th June with AGM in August. Some of the already paid buy out amount and profits for 2024 should trickle to share holders as they decide on way forward on the company.

Update on KCB:
The NBK sale has been finalised. This makes H1 results to be very interesting with both an interim and special dividend very likely.

Happy Hunting



H1 results will still include NBK for the 5 months it was still under KCB


Seems KCB entry into Ethiopia is happening soon most likely with the proceeds from the NBK sale.

https://x.com/MwangoCapi...kSF-kyJdH8GFNA&s=19

Happy hunting.


Seems so,the entry into Ethiopia might happen by end of the year


https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/45560/

Happy hunting.
obiero
#100 Posted : Thursday, June 12, 2025 7:30:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,695
Location: nairobi
Obiero's picks:
1. COOP (Current Price: Ksh 16.10; Target Price range Ksh 20-22 by Dec 31st 2025); About 37% Upside. Growing consumer lending book. Managed NPL. Increased outlet presence in counties.

2. KQ (Current Price: Ksh 5.00; Target Price range Ksh 7-8 by Dec 31st 2025); About 40% Upside. GoK constant support via guarantees. KQLC presence. New leased fleet showing high increase in RSK and ASK. Pan-African airline rollout.

3. IMH *wildcard. still weighing my entry


COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; KQ 544,100 ABP 7.15; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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