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Playing the Market............. 2025
VituVingiSana
#81 Posted : Thursday, May 15, 2025 3:30:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,161
Location: Nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:
watesh wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
Observations from KCB 54th AGM Notice (and integrated report) to be held in 3 weeks time:
1. NBK Sale still on the cards since it's one of the special businesses listed for shareholders
approval.
2. Some of the NBK assets and liabilities will be retained by KCB although 100% of the issued share capital will be acquired by Access BANK.
3. One of the reasons for low dividend pay out ratio despite a hefty EPS is need for capital preservation for regional expansion with Ethiopia being mentioned in the CEOs remarks as a likely regional play.
4. Curiously, their is no mention of the DRC Instruction 18 that requires foreign banks to ensure 45% shareholding by locals hence KCB (and Equity) both with about 85% shareholding in their DRC subsidiaries having until Dec 2026 (about 18 months) to offload 30% of their shareholdings in these DRC subsidiaries so as to reduce their shareholdings to the 55% foreign shareholding limit. This is the same rule that has stalled the NBK sale to Access bank since the Nigerian Banks regulator placed it as a precondition (Access bank complying with the DRC Instruction 18 in its DRC subsidiary) before approving the purchase.

https://kcbgroup.com/integrated-reports

Happy hunting.


Another reason for the low dividend payout was that subsidiaries don't remit any dividend to the group so all the burden falls on KCB Kenya, which was having to buff up its capital. I don't see it going above a 30% payout in the short term


Next year will be very interesting for both Equity and KCB Group shareholders when they both have to sell 30% of their DRC operations to locals (the 2nd largest subsidiaries in both assets and profitability after Kenya for both) due to the requirement to reduce foreign ownership to not more than 55%.
Hard task in the absence of a DRC stock exchange.

Happy Hunting

If there was an exchange then they could be sold to the public BUT this feels like a set-up to force them to "sell" shares to connected folks in the DRC government.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
DtheK
#82 Posted : Thursday, May 15, 2025 3:42:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/15/2010
Posts: 142
Location: Kenya
That DRC instruction 18 is not well thought out, though I can appreciate it's populist appeal. It will not serve them well in attracting investors. Their efforts would be better directed at creating good capital markets, then foreign banks wouldn't have an issue (cross)listing in a DRC exchange.
If there'll be capable & qualified buyers, well a special dividend might just materialize.
For FY 2025 KCB has no business denying 30% of EPS as dividend. If they do small shareholders should make a stink, and kick out as many directors without shareholding as possible.
DtheK
#83 Posted : Thursday, May 15, 2025 3:51:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/15/2010
Posts: 142
Location: Kenya
stocksmaster wrote:
Update on the Umeme 30 days good faith negotiations:

https://x.com/USEUganda/...uHeuY88jekH_Kw&s=19

Happy hunting.

Note the language here. It is GOU that asked for the extension of negotiations to 20th,if you know your case is weak you're not too eager to go to court/arbitration.
Also note that GOU had asked parliament for a greater amount than the Auditor quoted.
A reason for hope.
Anyway 31st May it is.
stocksmaster
#84 Posted : Thursday, May 15, 2025 4:11:40 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 424
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
VituVingiSana wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
watesh wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
Observations from KCB 54th AGM Notice (and integrated report) to be held in 3 weeks time:
1. NBK Sale still on the cards since it's one of the special businesses listed for shareholders
approval.
2. Some of the NBK assets and liabilities will be retained by KCB although 100% of the issued share capital will be acquired by Access BANK.
3. One of the reasons for low dividend pay out ratio despite a hefty EPS is need for capital preservation for regional expansion with Ethiopia being mentioned in the CEOs remarks as a likely regional play.
4. Curiously, their is no mention of the DRC Instruction 18 that requires foreign banks to ensure 45% shareholding by locals hence KCB (and Equity) both with about 85% shareholding in their DRC subsidiaries having until Dec 2026 (about 18 months) to offload 30% of their shareholdings in these DRC subsidiaries so as to reduce their shareholdings to the 55% foreign shareholding limit. This is the same rule that has stalled the NBK sale to Access bank since the Nigerian Banks regulator placed it as a precondition (Access bank complying with the DRC Instruction 18 in its DRC subsidiary) before approving the purchase.

https://kcbgroup.com/integrated-reports

Happy hunting.


Another reason for the low dividend payout was that subsidiaries don't remit any dividend to the group so all the burden falls on KCB Kenya, which was having to buff up its capital. I don't see it going above a 30% payout in the short term


Next year will be very interesting for both Equity and KCB Group shareholders when they both have to sell 30% of their DRC operations to locals (the 2nd largest subsidiaries in both assets and profitability after Kenya for both) due to the requirement to reduce foreign ownership to not more than 55%.
Hard task in the absence of a DRC stock exchange.

Happy Hunting

If there was an exchange then they could be sold to the public BUT this feels like a set-up to force them to "sell" shares to connected folks in the DRC government.


My thoughts exactly. A forced sale is on the cards and at a song to the ruling class. Access bank seems unable to sell about half of a relatively smaller subsidiary (as a precondition by Central Bank of Nigeria in order to approve the NBK acquisition in Kenya). The DRC banks will have to spearhead creation of a stock exchange in DRC (similar to what's happening in Ethiopia where the banks seem to have taken the lead in creating a stock exchange) in order to navigate this issue.

Happy Hunting.
stocksmaster
#85 Posted : Thursday, May 15, 2025 4:35:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 424
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
DtheK wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
Update on the Umeme 30 days good faith negotiations:

https://x.com/USEUganda/...uHeuY88jekH_Kw&s=19

Happy hunting.

Note the language here. It is GOU that asked for the extension of negotiations to 20th,if you know your case is weak you're not too eager to go to court/arbitration.
Also note that GOU had asked parliament for a greater amount than the Auditor quoted.
A reason for hope.
Anyway 31st May it is.


An arbitration case in London and a subsequent likely loss would not be in the best interests of the GoU which is trying to attract foreign investments or capital into its energy (oil and electricity) sector as it increases the risk factor for such investments in Uganda (some paper mentions upto almost 6% increase in cost of capital as the country gets perceived as a high risk investment where the state does not respect agreements).

A likely outcome is the goverment reverting to the original cabinet approved amount for which a loan had also already been approved of about USD 190-200Mn although this still falls short of the 234mn demand by Umeme. The Concession agreement also had a threshold of any contested amount above USD 7mn being subject to Arbitration in London. I therefore foresee a very likely London arbitration case.

It is also worth noting that it seems the Board and Management (CEO) are interested in pursuing alternative related opportunities as opposed to folding the company. The Chairman is quoted as saying:
"Zanzibar, Somalia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Cameroon and Tanzania – they have all come to study our model,” he said. “We may consider these offers, but first we must tidy up at home.”.......“We’ve built a very strong brand,the shareholders will decide what next — whether to wrap it up or pursue new business opportunities. Either way, Umeme’s track record remains intact.”

https://deepearthint.com...oney-at-agm-next-month/

It will be an interesting AGM as shareholders decide on way forward....wether to reinvest and take only a dividend or fold the company and cannibalize the assets, share reserves etc.

Happy Hunting
VituVingiSana
#86 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2025 1:41:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,161
Location: Nairobi
IMHO, Ugandans would have been better served by (the powers-that-be) asking for a better deal with UMEME than the current path taken which will give more "connected" folks more fingers in the pie.

GoU could have asked for "free" preferred shares in UMEME as a condition for renewal of the contract.
Or a direct ordinary shareholding. Or better terms eg lower fees, additional investment, higher efficiencies, etc.

Watch UMEME become what KPLC was prior to the current board when scams, tariff games and political appointments were the norm.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
stocksmaster
#87 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2025 8:43:39 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 424
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
stocksmaster wrote:
Observations from KCB 54th AGM Notice (and integrated report) to be held in 3 weeks time:
1. NBK Sale still on the cards since it's one of the special businesses listed for shareholders
approval.
2. Some of the NBK assets and liabilities will be retained by KCB although 100% of the issued share capital will be acquired by Access BANK.
3. One of the reasons for low dividend pay out ratio despite a hefty EPS is need for capital preservation for regional expansion with Ethiopia being mentioned in the CEOs remarks as a likely regional play.
4. Curiously, their is no mention of the DRC Instruction 18 that requires foreign banks to ensure 45% shareholding by locals hence KCB (and Equity) both with about 85% shareholding in their DRC subsidiaries having until Dec 2026 (about 18 months) to offload 30% of their shareholdings in these DRC subsidiaries so as to reduce their shareholdings to the 55% foreign shareholding limit. This is the same rule that has stalled the NBK sale to Access bank since the Nigerian Banks regulator placed it as a precondition (Access bank complying with the DRC Instruction 18 in its DRC subsidiary) before approving the purchase.

https://kcbgroup.com/integrated-reports

Happy hunting.


Additional observation on the NBK sale:

It seems the NBK Hive Out Agreement which retains some NBK assets and liabilities with KCB was signed 4.5 Months later (15th August) after the original sale agreement and announcement (signed 31st March). This is curious since the original terms of a sale price of 1.25 Book Value were retained despite Access Bank likely getting an opportunity to offload the NPLs (and most likely any pending NBK litigations like the Criticos case and award that forced the sale due to sinking NBK into looses) back to KCB. KCB Shareholders I believe should be given full disclosure of this hive out agreement since it's already been signed on 15th August last year prior to approving the sale.

On the other hand, retaining the NBK NPLs presents an opportunity for KCB to derive more value from the transaction if this NPLs have assets as security which can be auctioned for loan recovery.

https://kcbgroup.com/shareholder-meetings

Happy Hunting.

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