The M23’s expansion resulted in the closure of local bank branches, effectively paralysing formal financial transactions. The Congolese Central Bank (BCC) in Kinshasa has blocked the reopening of these branches and will maintain this position in the coming weeks, leading to acute US dollar shortages and effectively severing financial connections between the occupied territories and the rest of Congo

The AFC/M23 is increasingly keen to establish parallel banking institutions. On 7 April, the AFC’s leader Corneille Nangaa officially reopened the Goma branch of the Savings and Credit Bank of Congo (Caisse Générale d'Epargne du Congo – CADECO), having appointed a new management team. The rebels want CADECO to act as the main local bank and will pressure economic operators to transfer their deposits into its accounts. However, this will not represent a viable solution for international transactions as CADECO lacks access to SWIFT and correspondent banking, severely restricting its ability to process international payments

It's not yet over until it's over.....as per concession agreements, they are currently on 30 days good faith negotiations from 1st April then if no acceptable terms reached, arbitration in London. May take longer than expected if it's arbitration (about 18 months or so) but if umeme board stands it's ground as it has indicated it will do, then that USD 234M buy out will be realised.
Besides the attempted robbery of 106M USD by GoU, Umeme received 118M USD buy out and expects another USD 10M from works that were in progress. It also had about 170M USD in retained earnings + translation reserves as at June 2024. Added to this is the 15 months profits from Jan 2024 to end of March 2025 of about 40M USD. That adds up to about Ksh 27 per share. Having paid all of its long term loans by Dec 2023, most of this money will be seating in a bank account earning interest as the fight over the 106M USD proceeds (about Ksh 8.50 per share).

With an AGM on 22nd May, the next few weeks will paint a clearer picture of Umeme situation but the board indicated they will remain listed until the last coin is paid by the GoU then shareholders decide if to fold company or not.

On KCB, the long awaited sale of NBK has been finalised with a KCB Board public announcement due tomorrow. This sheds about 30bn from its NPLs. The ongoing payments of road contractors should be able to shed a further 20bn hence a possible 50bn reduction in its NPLs by half year results. Coupled with the approximately 16bn sale of NBK, the half year 2025 KCB results should be spectacular.

Happy Hunting.

Observations from KCB 54th AGM Notice (and integrated report) to be held in 3 weeks time:
1. NBK Sale still on the cards since it's one of the special businesses listed for shareholders
approval.
2. Some of the NBK assets and liabilities will be retained by KCB although 100% of the issued share capital will be acquired by Access BANK.
3. One of the reasons for low dividend pay out ratio despite a hefty EPS is need for capital preservation for regional expansion with Ethiopia being mentioned in the CEOs remarks as a likely regional play.
4. Curiously, their is no mention of the DRC Instruction 18 that requires foreign banks to ensure 45% shareholding by locals hence KCB (and Equity) both with about 85% shareholding in their DRC subsidiaries having until Dec 2026 (about 18 months) to offload 30% of their shareholdings in these DRC subsidiaries so as to reduce their shareholdings to the 55% foreign shareholding limit. This is the same rule that has stalled the NBK sale to Access bank since the Nigerian Banks regulator placed it as a precondition (Access bank complying with the DRC Instruction 18 in its DRC subsidiary) before approving the purchase.

https://kcbgroup.com/integrated-reports

Happy hunting.