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Playing the Market............. 2025
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Ericsson
#51 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2025 9:30:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,815
Location: NAIROBI
heri wrote:
littledove wrote:
kcb final dividend of 1.5 per share total ksh 3, thats around 6.8% dividend yield at current price of ksh 45. This is likely to spoil current market mood with many bank shares reacting down ward. They could have reported being the last, sijui kiherehere ilikuwa ya niniSad Sad


That DIY is bad. Are there storms ahead they are seeing?


Ahead is the planned entry to Ethiopia.
They don't want to strain their capital as was the case during TMB acquisition
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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heri
#52 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2025 10:01:53 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
KCB FY24 EARNINGS

The interview with the CEO has clarified important issues


1. Regulatory approval delays in the sale of NBK
2. Eastern DRC has 15 branches, closed for the last 2 months. Eastern DR Congo accounts for 10.0% of the performance of TMB
3. KCB Group believes that Burundi is headed to hyper-inflation & that will be the key risk in 2025
4. The board of KCB Group has sanctioned a formal evaluation of 3 markets - Eastern DR Congo, South Sudan & Burundi
5. Anything between Kes 25.0 billion & Kes 30.0 billion could be obtained from the planned securitisation of roads sector pending bills
6. Plan to have 40% dividend payout ratio
7. KCB Group plans to inject a blend of Tier I & Tier II capital into its Tanzania subsidiary & that's why the dividend was considerably moderated
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MaichBlack
#53 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2025 10:10:12 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,894
stocksmaster wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
heri wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
heri wrote:
littledove wrote:
kcb final dividend of 1.5 per share total ksh 3, thats around 6.8% dividend yield at current price of ksh 45. This is likely to spoil current market mood with many bank shares reacting down ward. They could have reported being the last, sijui kiherehere ilikuwa ya niniSad Sad


That DIY is bad. Are there storms ahead they are seeing?

Giving such a low DPS vs EPS without proper explanation (acquisitions etc.) raise a number of concerns from investors including probable cooking (I am not saying there is any cooking). You can never give dividends from cooked figures!

But all in all the performance was great. Very disappointing dividends.


What is your take on the high NPLs? With the sale of NBK, will the NPLs drop to a reasonable level?


NBK carries a NPL of Ksh 30Bn which will reduce the KCB NPLs to about 195Bn (about 13% reduction). Based on the NBK books, the NBK book value is now 13bn hence KCB should receive about Ksh 16.25bn for NBK sale (about Ksh 5 per share). With such poor dividends payout ratio, they may not issue any special dividend unless they fear a backlash from shareholders who they have to convince before the sale is ratified at the AGM.....Still hoping for at least Ksh 1 special dividend from that NBK sale. In the last 2 years, KCB has made Ksh 30 earnings per share while only distributing to share holders Ksh 3 (10% payout ratio).

I foresee further reduction in their NPL for 2025 due to the aggressive nature of auctioning of defaulters that they seem to have instituted this last few months. A reduction to about 170-180bn while growing the loan book could slash the NPL ratio to about 14-15% for 2025. But may have to reduce my price target for 2025 to about Ksh 52-55 unless they can achieve above market profit returns for the next 3 quarters and pay a better interim dividend.

Happy Hunting


https://www.businessdail...eze-of-nbk-sale-4964080

The low dividend payout now starting to make sense if the NBK sale to Access Bank deal stalls since KCB will need to capitalise NBK to comply with CBK capital adequacy ratios. To avoid a rights issue for a depressed share price (share is trading at less than half of book value), management must be planning to utilise the retained earnings.

Happy Hunting.

Makes a lot of sense.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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heri
#54 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2025 10:25:02 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
How much of the gross NPLs of 225B are provided for? I was looking at the figures and I couldn't tell?
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watesh
#55 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2025 4:08:28 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 992
Location: Kenya
Ericsson wrote:
heri wrote:
littledove wrote:
kcb final dividend of 1.5 per share total ksh 3, thats around 6.8% dividend yield at current price of ksh 45. This is likely to spoil current market mood with many bank shares reacting down ward. They could have reported being the last, sijui kiherehere ilikuwa ya niniSad Sad


That DIY is bad. Are there storms ahead they are seeing?


Ahead is the planned entry to Ethiopia.
They don't want to strain their capital as was the case during TMB acquisition


An acquisition in Tanzania would be very welcome.
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MaichBlack
#56 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2025 4:52:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,894
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
heri wrote:
littledove wrote:
kcb final dividend of 1.5 per share total ksh 3, thats around 6.8% dividend yield at current price of ksh 45. This is likely to spoil current market mood with many bank shares reacting down ward. They could have reported being the last, sijui kiherehere ilikuwa ya niniSad Sad


That DIY is bad. Are there storms ahead they are seeing?


Ahead is the planned entry to Ethiopia.
They don't want to strain their capital as was the case during TMB acquisition


An acquisition in Tanzania would be very welcome.

"We are planning something..."

That might just be the something.

The board and management seem to be having big plans for Uganda and Tanzania. We wait and see...
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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heri
#57 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2025 8:51:10 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
heri wrote:
littledove wrote:
kcb final dividend of 1.5 per share total ksh 3, thats around 6.8% dividend yield at current price of ksh 45. This is likely to spoil current market mood with many bank shares reacting down ward. They could have reported being the last, sijui kiherehere ilikuwa ya niniSad Sad


That DIY is bad. Are there storms ahead they are seeing?


Ahead is the planned entry to Ethiopia.
They don't want to strain their capital as was the case during TMB acquisition


An acquisition in Tanzania would be very welcome.

"We are planning something..."

That might just be the something.

The board and management seem to be having big plans for Uganda and Tanzania. We wait and see...


I hope it is not Ethiopia
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MaichBlack
#58 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2025 11:36:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,894
heri wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
heri wrote:
littledove wrote:
kcb final dividend of 1.5 per share total ksh 3, thats around 6.8% dividend yield at current price of ksh 45. This is likely to spoil current market mood with many bank shares reacting down ward. They could have reported being the last, sijui kiherehere ilikuwa ya niniSad Sad


That DIY is bad. Are there storms ahead they are seeing?


Ahead is the planned entry to Ethiopia.
They don't want to strain their capital as was the case during TMB acquisition


An acquisition in Tanzania would be very welcome.

"We are planning something..."

That might just be the something.

The board and management seem to be having big plans for Uganda and Tanzania. We wait and see...


I hope it is not Ethiopia

They are buying 75% Nick Mwendwa's Riverbank Solutions for 2B.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack
#59 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2025 11:38:34 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,894
MaichBlack wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
When are Equity reporting.

Just confirmed it is Tuesday 25th March.

Today is that day!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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VituVingiSana
#60 Posted : Tuesday, March 25, 2025 11:45:33 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,366
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
When are Equity reporting.

Just confirmed it is Tuesday 25th March.

Today is that day!!!

Unless it is after-hours... nothing today.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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