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Playing the Market............. 2025
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MaichBlack
#41 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2025 10:38:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,892
When are Equity reporting.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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heri
#42 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2025 10:55:40 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
heri wrote:
littledove wrote:
kcb final dividend of 1.5 per share total ksh 3, thats around 6.8% dividend yield at current price of ksh 45. This is likely to spoil current market mood with many bank shares reacting down ward. They could have reported being the last, sijui kiherehere ilikuwa ya niniSad Sad


That DIY is bad. Are there storms ahead they are seeing?

Giving such a low DPS vs EPS without proper explanation (acquisitions etc.) raise a number of concerns from investors including probable cooking (I am not saying there is any cooking). You can never give dividends from cooked figures!

But all in all the performance was great. Very disappointing dividends.


What is your take on the high NPLs? With the sale of NBK, will the NPLs drop to a reasonable level?
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MaichBlack
#43 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2025 11:37:28 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,892
littledove wrote:
kcb final dividend of 1.5 per share total ksh 3, thats around 6.8% dividend yield at current price of ksh 45. This is likely to spoil current market mood with many bank shares reacting down ward. They could have reported being the last, sijui kiherehere ilikuwa ya niniSad Sad

How many shares does the CEO own? Board members?

Hapa ndipo @vvs husema yeye hupenda people with skin in the game.

If someone had 20 million shares na ako na kamjengo somewhere kamekwama believe you me the final dividend would have been 6/=!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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heri
#44 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2025 11:42:07 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
littledove wrote:
kcb final dividend of 1.5 per share total ksh 3, thats around 6.8% dividend yield at current price of ksh 45. This is likely to spoil current market mood with many bank shares reacting down ward. They could have reported being the last, sijui kiherehere ilikuwa ya niniSad Sad

How many shares does the CEO own? Board members?

Hapa ndipo @vvs husema yeye hupenda people with skin in the game.

If someone had 20 million shares na ako na kamjengo somewhere kamekwama believe you me the final dividend would have been 6/=!!!


Do they have a dividend policy or it does not matter?
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MaichBlack
#45 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2025 12:00:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,892
heri wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
littledove wrote:
kcb final dividend of 1.5 per share total ksh 3, thats around 6.8% dividend yield at current price of ksh 45. This is likely to spoil current market mood with many bank shares reacting down ward. They could have reported being the last, sijui kiherehere ilikuwa ya niniSad Sad

How many shares does the CEO own? Board members?

Hapa ndipo @vvs husema yeye hupenda people with skin in the game.

If someone had 20 million shares na ako na kamjengo somewhere kamekwama believe you me the final dividend would have been 6/=!!!


Do they have a dividend policy or it does not matter?

I heard them stating a very funny thing yesterday after being put task on the low DPS vis-a-vis thr dividend policy!!! They said that their dividend policy is to pay a MAXIMUM of 50%!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, March 13, 2025 12:19 PM | Reason: Not specified
MaichBlack
#46 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2025 12:27:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,892
MaichBlack wrote:
When are Equity reporting.

Just confirmed it is Tuesday 25th March.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack
#47 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2025 12:33:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,892
littledove wrote:
kcb final dividend of 1.5 per share total ksh 3, thats around 6.8% dividend yield at current price of ksh 45. This is likely to spoil current market mood with many bank shares reacting down ward. They could have reported being the last, sijui kiherehere ilikuwa ya niniSad Sad

The price will rebound sooner rather than later even for KCB but we didn't need to deal with this man-made shenanigans!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack
#48 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2025 12:37:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,892
I wish I had more liquid cash at the moment I buy more KCB on the cheap!! A fellow just sold his/her shares at 35/=!!!

It will not take him/her long to regret that decision!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, March 13, 2025 12:38 PM | Reason: Not specified
stocksmaster
#49 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2025 1:26:38 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
heri wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
heri wrote:
littledove wrote:
kcb final dividend of 1.5 per share total ksh 3, thats around 6.8% dividend yield at current price of ksh 45. This is likely to spoil current market mood with many bank shares reacting down ward. They could have reported being the last, sijui kiherehere ilikuwa ya niniSad Sad


That DIY is bad. Are there storms ahead they are seeing?

Giving such a low DPS vs EPS without proper explanation (acquisitions etc.) raise a number of concerns from investors including probable cooking (I am not saying there is any cooking). You can never give dividends from cooked figures!

But all in all the performance was great. Very disappointing dividends.


What is your take on the high NPLs? With the sale of NBK, will the NPLs drop to a reasonable level?


NBK carries a NPL of Ksh 30Bn which will reduce the KCB NPLs to about 195Bn (about 13% reduction). Based on the NBK books, the NBK book value is now 13bn hence KCB should receive about Ksh 16.25bn for NBK sale (about Ksh 5 per share). With such poor dividends payout ratio, they may not issue any special dividend unless they fear a backlash from shareholders who they have to convince before the sale is ratified at the AGM.....Still hoping for at least Ksh 1 special dividend from that NBK sale. In the last 2 years, KCB has made Ksh 30 earnings per share while only distributing to share holders Ksh 3 (10% payout ratio).

I foresee further reduction in their NPL for 2025 due to the aggressive nature of auctioning of defaulters that they seem to have instituted this last few months. A reduction to about 170-180bn while growing the loan book could slash the NPL ratio to about 14-15% for 2025. But may have to reduce my price target for 2025 to about Ksh 52-55 unless they can achieve above market profit returns for the next 3 quarters and pay a better interim dividend.

Happy Hunting
x handle: @stocksmaster79
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stocksmaster
#50 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2025 2:54:38 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
stocksmaster wrote:
heri wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
heri wrote:
littledove wrote:
kcb final dividend of 1.5 per share total ksh 3, thats around 6.8% dividend yield at current price of ksh 45. This is likely to spoil current market mood with many bank shares reacting down ward. They could have reported being the last, sijui kiherehere ilikuwa ya niniSad Sad


That DIY is bad. Are there storms ahead they are seeing?

Giving such a low DPS vs EPS without proper explanation (acquisitions etc.) raise a number of concerns from investors including probable cooking (I am not saying there is any cooking). You can never give dividends from cooked figures!

But all in all the performance was great. Very disappointing dividends.


What is your take on the high NPLs? With the sale of NBK, will the NPLs drop to a reasonable level?


NBK carries a NPL of Ksh 30Bn which will reduce the KCB NPLs to about 195Bn (about 13% reduction). Based on the NBK books, the NBK book value is now 13bn hence KCB should receive about Ksh 16.25bn for NBK sale (about Ksh 5 per share). With such poor dividends payout ratio, they may not issue any special dividend unless they fear a backlash from shareholders who they have to convince before the sale is ratified at the AGM.....Still hoping for at least Ksh 1 special dividend from that NBK sale. In the last 2 years, KCB has made Ksh 30 earnings per share while only distributing to share holders Ksh 3 (10% payout ratio).

I foresee further reduction in their NPL for 2025 due to the aggressive nature of auctioning of defaulters that they seem to have instituted this last few months. A reduction to about 170-180bn while growing the loan book could slash the NPL ratio to about 14-15% for 2025. But may have to reduce my price target for 2025 to about Ksh 52-55 unless they can achieve above market profit returns for the next 3 quarters and pay a better interim dividend.

Happy Hunting


https://www.businessdail...eze-of-nbk-sale-4964080

The low dividend payout now starting to make sense if the NBK sale to Access Bank deal stalls since KCB will need to capitalise NBK to comply with CBK capital adequacy ratios. To avoid a rights issue for a depressed share price (share is trading at less than half of book value), management must be planning to utilise the retained earnings.

Happy Hunting.
x handle: @stocksmaster79
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