wazua Tue, Jan 21, 2025
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

2 Pages<12
Bear is finally over
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
mufasa
#21 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2024 4:56:52 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 207
Kenya's major problem is just one... chronic corruption within Govt. If you can tame that and the rest of the sectors will follow suit. Money will reach the commoners.
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
VituVingiSana
#22 Posted : Thursday, November 07, 2024 2:18:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
Trump won decisively.

US markets soared.

Will foreign investors want to be in Frontier Markets?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
wukan
#23 Posted : Thursday, November 07, 2024 7:57:13 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,597
VituVingiSana wrote:
Trump won decisively.

US markets soared.

Will foreign investors want to be in Frontier Markets?


No, they won't. The idea of "cigar butt" investing for one last puff went out of fashion. Fontier market are troubled assets and whether dollar did this or yen did that they will still be troubled assets.

It's more profitable and less stressful to invest where the action is. Fontier markets need to sort out their mess and become markets where action is happening.

See how India stopped depending on foreign investors and started pushing their market forward. That's what NSE needs, local investors propelling it forward.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
mufasa
#24 Posted : Thursday, November 07, 2024 8:00:33 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 207
VituVingiSana wrote:
Trump won decisively.

US markets soared.

Will foreign investors want to be in Frontier Markets?

Kenya Crypto gang was all over twitter celebrating. It seems a trump win is inspiring confidence in US tech Mkts.
Pretty sure the dollar is strengthening. What's weird is Ksh. is also strengthening.
But because deals like the mombasa/Nrb express road are already in play, it won't take long before they troop back to mkts like Kenya... say Q2 2025
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
wukan
#25 Posted : Thursday, November 07, 2024 9:18:43 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,597
@VVS
This is how frontier markets are viewed
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
My 2 cents
#26 Posted : Thursday, November 07, 2024 12:24:31 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,070
Time will tell.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
wukan
#27 Posted : Friday, November 15, 2024 9:51:08 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,597
Dollar strength will impact risk assets. Dollar index needs to cool down before the next leg up for NSE. Planning to add Kshs assets on next dip around Dec
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
Ericsson
#28 Posted : Thursday, November 28, 2024 5:49:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
wukan wrote:
Dollar strength will impact risk assets. Dollar index needs to cool down before the next leg up for NSE. Planning to add Kshs assets on next dip around Dec


With Trump as president,dollar will strengthen
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Back to top
WWW
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
wukan
#29 Posted : Friday, November 29, 2024 8:33:29 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,597
Ericsson wrote:
wukan wrote:
Dollar strength will impact risk assets. Dollar index needs to cool down before the next leg up for NSE. Planning to add Kshs assets on next dip around Dec


With Trump as president,dollar will strengthen


MAGA requires the dollar softening. Trump's treasury pick leans towards "Abenomics" so expect volatility all around.

Either way one can hedge using local dollar MMFs to short the NSE

What's more disappointing we get market signals from advanced markets because our local policymakers are just a bunch of debt junkies floating with no initiative
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
wukan
#30 Posted : Saturday, December 28, 2024 10:34:47 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,597
NSE 20 share index is up 32% this year. Equities was best bet for the year Applause

macro traders have seen the best year. From shorting Kshs to 160 to mopping off the weak hands in equities and squeezing GoK on bond yields.

To a better year

Kaende sana!
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
VituVingiSana
#31 Posted : Sunday, December 29, 2024 10:01:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
NSE 20 share index is up 32% this year. Equities was best bet for the year Applause

macro traders have seen the best year. From shorting Kshs to 160 to mopping off the weak hands in equities and squeezing GoK on bond yields.

To a better year

Kaende sana!
Only a few of the NSE 20 have done very well. Also one cannot buy the NSE20 like one can the S&P500. A missed opportunity by the NSE i.e. offering a tradable index.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
mufasa
#32 Posted : Monday, December 30, 2024 8:42:48 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 207
I'm really keen on NMG given the efforts they are making on the digital space.
Trying to workout if they are likely to pay dividends in 2025. That would be a game changer.
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
wukan
#33 Posted : Monday, December 30, 2024 4:48:18 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,597
VituVingiSana wrote:
wukan wrote:
NSE 20 share index is up 32% this year. Equities was best bet for the year Applause

macro traders have seen the best year. From shorting Kshs to 160 to mopping off the weak hands in equities and squeezing GoK on bond yields.

To a better year

Kaende sana!
Only a few of the NSE 20 have done very well. Also one cannot buy the NSE20 like one can the S&P500. A missed opportunity by the NSE i.e. offering a tradable index.


Second last trading day and from where I stand, I will beat the index this year. Waiting for tomorrow's final numbers for 2024. Pray Pray

Today the NSE 20 was at 1993 only 7 points from the 2000 mark. Tomorrow let's turn up at our best. We must be seen...smile

There was an ETF that was to be launched based on the NSE 10 index but it has been delayed. Missed opportunity by the promoters
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
wukan
#34 Posted : Tuesday, December 31, 2024 4:23:47 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,597
NSE 20 index has ended the year at 2010.

NSE 10 index at 1302

What a year that was Applause Applause Applause Applause

See you folks in 2025
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM | Edit by user: Tuesday, December 31, 2024 4:28 PM | Reason: Not specified
My 2 cents
#35 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2025 10:37:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,070
Stock Market returns = Dividend Yield + Capital Gains(Losses) + PE Expansion (Contraction).
During the bear market, for those of us with dividend paying shares - that was all we relied on to keep us sane.
Now we look forward to the other two components of share returns. Happy 2025!!
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
wukan
#36 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2025 8:17:38 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,597
I have spent 7 days of 2025 thinking about my 2025 strategy...my peni mbili mawaidha

1. NSE 20 index is still targeting the 3200 level so let your winners run.

2. Winning strategy is really to look at the data anomaly. You need to research a lot and when you see it aim for the heart and go for the full trade.

3. Divide your portfolio into manageable units.

4. Work in silence-play your cards close to the chest. Understand no one is coming to save you and go out there and make it work for you.

5. Mr. Market is separating the men from the boys. What worked in the last 10 years may not work in the next 10. Some of us have to hang out with the big boys now and have to run faster.

6. Pick good managers. Looks for firms with recent meaningful boardroom shakeups. I think many corporate suites are stuck in the last decade or wallow in the nostalgia of the kibaki era. Avoid such.

7. Be aggressive- half measures don't work.

8. Play the long game- the short game is exciting, but the money is in the long plays.

9. Aim to change the world- shake up the investment world with your trades and don't get stuck living in the other people's dogma.

10. Discipline- don't be complacent, don't be target-fixated, don't be dumb money.

2025 theme is tubebwe tena!
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
obiero
#37 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2025 9:37:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,559
Location: nairobi
wukan wrote:
I have spent 7 days of 2025 thinking about my 2025 strategy...my peni mbili mawaidha

1. NSE 20 index is still targeting the 3200 level so let your winners run.

2. Winning strategy is really to look at the data anomaly. You need to research a lot and when you see it aim for the heart and go for the full trade.

3. Divide your portfolio into manageable units.

4. Work in silence-play your cards close to the chest. Understand no one is coming to save you and go out there and make it work for you.

5. Mr. Market is separating the men from the boys. What worked in the last 10 years may not work in the next 10. Some of us have to hang out with the big boys now and have to run faster.

6. Pick good managers. Looks for firms with recent meaningful boardroom shakeups. I think many corporate suites are stuck in the last decade or wallow in the nostalgia of the kibaki era. Avoid such.

7. Be aggressive- half measures don't work.

8. Play the long game- the short game is exciting, but the money is in the long plays.

9. Aim to change the world- shake up the investment world with your trades and don't get stuck living in the other people's dogma.

10. Discipline- don't be complacent, don't be target-fixated, don't be dumb money.

2025 theme is tubebwe tena!


Profound words

COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Back to top
WWW
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
Ericsson
#38 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2025 5:37:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
My 2 cents wrote:
Stock Market returns = Dividend Yield + Capital Gains(Losses) + PE Expansion (Contraction).
During the bear market, for those of us with dividend paying shares - that was all we relied on to keep us sane.
Now we look forward to the other two components of share returns. Happy 2025!!


Expound on PE Expansion (Contraction).
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Back to top
WWW
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
My 2 cents
#39 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2025 8:57:05 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,070
Ericsson wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
Stock Market returns = Dividend Yield + Capital Gains(Losses) + PE Expansion (Contraction).
During the bear market, for those of us with dividend paying shares - that was all we relied on to keep us sane.
Now we look forward to the other two components of share returns. Happy 2025!!


Expound on PE Expansion (Contraction).

The P/E expansion component of share returns refers to the rise in a stock's price due to an increase in its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. During the bear market, P/E ratios on the NSE have been exceptionally low (below 5). As the market recovers and P/E ratios revert to more typical levels, this adjustment will translate into higher stock prices.

For example, consider KenGen, which currently has a P/E ratio of 4.2. Historically, KenGen's P/E ratio has ranged between 8 and 12. If the P/E ratio expands to above 8, we can reasonably expect KenGen's stock price to rise above 8.2 (calculated as 8 x the current earnings per share of approximately 1.0). This illustrates how P/E expansion can significantly contribute to stock price growth during market recoveries.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM | Edit by user: Thursday, January 09, 2025 8:58 PM | Reason: Not specified
Users browsing this topic
Guest (2)
2 Pages<12
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2025 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.