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Safaricom in Ethiopia
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,810 Location: NAIROBI
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My 2 cents wrote:No interim dividends. Ethiopia has disappointed. Interim dividend is usually announced in February Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,361 Location: Nairobi
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watesh wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:One should look at Ethiopia with a very long lens (time frame).
The Birr needs to find its level and it seems, unless there is some very good news for Ethiopia, it will depreciate further.
Safaricom is very small in Ethiopia. It is like the Telkom (not even Airtel) of Ethiopia BUT it does not have the legacy issues of Ethiotel. Lessons from Kenya can be applied to Ethiopia but these need to be localized.
Focus of Saf ET is to GROW the numbers to benefit from network effects. MPesa is where I see Ethiopians will slowly favor Saf over Ethiotel. Saf knows how to monetize MPesa in the private sector.
Where Saf will have a long hard climbs, unlike Kenya, is linking Govt of Ethiopia services as Ethiotel will likely be favored just as Saf is favored in KE over Airtel for GoK services.
This is not a post to say BUY SAF or SELL SAF but about Saf ET's challenges and opportunities. I fully agree. It's a tricky one for investors. Safcom Kenya is pumping proper numbers but S. Ethiopia is sucking all the free cash flow from it hence dividends are likely to be stagnant. Safcom E needs to grow its ARPU to Ksh300 and hit 20 million customers but birr depreciation slows down ARPU momentum when converted to ksh. To get here faster they need more customers using Safcom as the primary simcard. Some positive things from the HY is Safcom E's gross profit has turned green, voice usage is kicking in and numbers are pumping up. As an investor, I am hoping it drops below 15 and I can start nibbling. Safcom K alone has the potential to pay a dividend of 1.9 and Saf E won't be paying anything for at least the next 5 years. My target will be to hold till P&L breakeven for Safcom E. This one needs time though so the entry price is crucial. The bad news from the currency depreciation might create a nice entry opportunity. Saf K does not use its cash to support Saf E anymore though there may be some expenses eg salaries for staff supporting Saf E. Also interest costs on the funds invested in Saf E. These are not huge vs Saf K's income. Yes, this is for the long-term. A good entry point is critical. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 992 Location: Kenya
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VituVingiSana wrote:watesh wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:One should look at Ethiopia with a very long lens (time frame).
The Birr needs to find its level and it seems, unless there is some very good news for Ethiopia, it will depreciate further.
Safaricom is very small in Ethiopia. It is like the Telkom (not even Airtel) of Ethiopia BUT it does not have the legacy issues of Ethiotel. Lessons from Kenya can be applied to Ethiopia but these need to be localized.
Focus of Saf ET is to GROW the numbers to benefit from network effects. MPesa is where I see Ethiopians will slowly favor Saf over Ethiotel. Saf knows how to monetize MPesa in the private sector.
Where Saf will have a long hard climbs, unlike Kenya, is linking Govt of Ethiopia services as Ethiotel will likely be favored just as Saf is favored in KE over Airtel for GoK services.
This is not a post to say BUY SAF or SELL SAF but about Saf ET's challenges and opportunities. I fully agree. It's a tricky one for investors. Safcom Kenya is pumping proper numbers but S. Ethiopia is sucking all the free cash flow from it hence dividends are likely to be stagnant. Safcom E needs to grow its ARPU to Ksh300 and hit 20 million customers but birr depreciation slows down ARPU momentum when converted to ksh. To get here faster they need more customers using Safcom as the primary simcard. Some positive things from the HY is Safcom E's gross profit has turned green, voice usage is kicking in and numbers are pumping up. As an investor, I am hoping it drops below 15 and I can start nibbling. Safcom K alone has the potential to pay a dividend of 1.9 and Saf E won't be paying anything for at least the next 5 years. My target will be to hold till P&L breakeven for Safcom E. This one needs time though so the entry price is crucial. The bad news from the currency depreciation might create a nice entry opportunity. Saf K does not use its cash to support Saf E anymore though there may be some expenses eg salaries for staff supporting Saf E. Also interest costs on the funds invested in Saf E. These are not huge vs Saf K's income. Yes, this is for the long-term. A good entry point is critical. Safaricom Ethiopia has 28bn in operating costs against revenues of 3bn (HY25). In addition, they have a Capex spend of ksh30bn in Ethiopia. So where is the money coming from? Surely Safcom Kenya is bankrolling at least half of these costs and will continue to do so till break even.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,361 Location: Nairobi
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watesh wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:watesh wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:One should look at Ethiopia with a very long lens (time frame).
The Birr needs to find its level and it seems, unless there is some very good news for Ethiopia, it will depreciate further.
Safaricom is very small in Ethiopia. It is like the Telkom (not even Airtel) of Ethiopia BUT it does not have the legacy issues of Ethiotel. Lessons from Kenya can be applied to Ethiopia but these need to be localized.
Focus of Saf ET is to GROW the numbers to benefit from network effects. MPesa is where I see Ethiopians will slowly favor Saf over Ethiotel. Saf knows how to monetize MPesa in the private sector.
Where Saf will have a long hard climbs, unlike Kenya, is linking Govt of Ethiopia services as Ethiotel will likely be favored just as Saf is favored in KE over Airtel for GoK services.
This is not a post to say BUY SAF or SELL SAF but about Saf ET's challenges and opportunities. I fully agree. It's a tricky one for investors. Safcom Kenya is pumping proper numbers but S. Ethiopia is sucking all the free cash flow from it hence dividends are likely to be stagnant. Safcom E needs to grow its ARPU to Ksh300 and hit 20 million customers but birr depreciation slows down ARPU momentum when converted to ksh. To get here faster they need more customers using Safcom as the primary simcard. Some positive things from the HY is Safcom E's gross profit has turned green, voice usage is kicking in and numbers are pumping up. As an investor, I am hoping it drops below 15 and I can start nibbling. Safcom K alone has the potential to pay a dividend of 1.9 and Saf E won't be paying anything for at least the next 5 years. My target will be to hold till P&L breakeven for Safcom E. This one needs time though so the entry price is crucial. The bad news from the currency depreciation might create a nice entry opportunity. Saf K does not use its cash to support Saf E anymore though there may be some expenses eg salaries for staff supporting Saf E. Also interest costs on the funds invested in Saf E. These are not huge vs Saf K's income. Yes, this is for the long-term. A good entry point is critical. Safaricom Ethiopia has 28bn in operating costs against revenues of 3bn (HY25). In addition, they have a Capex spend of ksh30bn in Ethiopia. So where is the money coming from? Surely Safcom Kenya is bankrolling at least half of these costs and will continue to do so till break even. Most CapEx is funded by initial investment and foreign loans including vendor financing. They are borrowing from local banks for local expenses. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,810 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:watesh wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:One should look at Ethiopia with a very long lens (time frame).
The Birr needs to find its level and it seems, unless there is some very good news for Ethiopia, it will depreciate further.
Safaricom is very small in Ethiopia. It is like the Telkom (not even Airtel) of Ethiopia BUT it does not have the legacy issues of Ethiotel. Lessons from Kenya can be applied to Ethiopia but these need to be localized.
Focus of Saf ET is to GROW the numbers to benefit from network effects. MPesa is where I see Ethiopians will slowly favor Saf over Ethiotel. Saf knows how to monetize MPesa in the private sector.
Where Saf will have a long hard climbs, unlike Kenya, is linking Govt of Ethiopia services as Ethiotel will likely be favored just as Saf is favored in KE over Airtel for GoK services.
This is not a post to say BUY SAF or SELL SAF but about Saf ET's challenges and opportunities. I fully agree. It's a tricky one for investors. Safcom Kenya is pumping proper numbers but S. Ethiopia is sucking all the free cash flow from it hence dividends are likely to be stagnant. Safcom E needs to grow its ARPU to Ksh300 and hit 20 million customers but birr depreciation slows down ARPU momentum when converted to ksh. To get here faster they need more customers using Safcom as the primary simcard. Some positive things from the HY is Safcom E's gross profit has turned green, voice usage is kicking in and numbers are pumping up. As an investor, I am hoping it drops below 15 and I can start nibbling. Safcom K alone has the potential to pay a dividend of 1.9 and Saf E won't be paying anything for at least the next 5 years. My target will be to hold till P&L breakeven for Safcom E. This one needs time though so the entry price is crucial. The bad news from the currency depreciation might create a nice entry opportunity. Saf K does not use its cash to support Saf E anymore though there may be some expenses eg salaries for staff supporting Saf E. Also interest costs on the funds invested in Saf E. These are not huge vs Saf K's income. Yes, this is for the long-term. A good entry point is critical. Good entry point is below 10 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,810 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:watesh wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:watesh wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:One should look at Ethiopia with a very long lens (time frame).
The Birr needs to find its level and it seems, unless there is some very good news for Ethiopia, it will depreciate further.
Safaricom is very small in Ethiopia. It is like the Telkom (not even Airtel) of Ethiopia BUT it does not have the legacy issues of Ethiotel. Lessons from Kenya can be applied to Ethiopia but these need to be localized.
Focus of Saf ET is to GROW the numbers to benefit from network effects. MPesa is where I see Ethiopians will slowly favor Saf over Ethiotel. Saf knows how to monetize MPesa in the private sector.
Where Saf will have a long hard climbs, unlike Kenya, is linking Govt of Ethiopia services as Ethiotel will likely be favored just as Saf is favored in KE over Airtel for GoK services.
This is not a post to say BUY SAF or SELL SAF but about Saf ET's challenges and opportunities. I fully agree. It's a tricky one for investors. Safcom Kenya is pumping proper numbers but S. Ethiopia is sucking all the free cash flow from it hence dividends are likely to be stagnant. Safcom E needs to grow its ARPU to Ksh300 and hit 20 million customers but birr depreciation slows down ARPU momentum when converted to ksh. To get here faster they need more customers using Safcom as the primary simcard. Some positive things from the HY is Safcom E's gross profit has turned green, voice usage is kicking in and numbers are pumping up. As an investor, I am hoping it drops below 15 and I can start nibbling. Safcom K alone has the potential to pay a dividend of 1.9 and Saf E won't be paying anything for at least the next 5 years. My target will be to hold till P&L breakeven for Safcom E. This one needs time though so the entry price is crucial. The bad news from the currency depreciation might create a nice entry opportunity. Saf K does not use its cash to support Saf E anymore though there may be some expenses eg salaries for staff supporting Saf E. Also interest costs on the funds invested in Saf E. These are not huge vs Saf K's income. Yes, this is for the long-term. A good entry point is critical. Safaricom Ethiopia has 28bn in operating costs against revenues of 3bn (HY25). In addition, they have a Capex spend of ksh30bn in Ethiopia. So where is the money coming from? Surely Safcom Kenya is bankrolling at least half of these costs and will continue to do so till break even. Most CapEx is funded by initial investment and foreign loans including vendor financing. They are borrowing from local banks for local expenses. Safaricom is bankrolling Ethiopia to some extent. The initial investment funds has already been consumed. The borrowing from local banks is for refinancing maturing loans and funding local vendors in the capex projects. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2009 Posts: 273
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,249 Location: nairobi
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Monk wrote:https://kenyanwallstreet.com/safaricoms-balance-sheet-takes-ksh-111b-hit-as-foreign-exchange-losses-bite/ Facts. With that dividend yield and NBV of KES 5.59, ideally in a functional exchange, it should drop like a hot potato. All that glitters..
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,361 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:Monk wrote:https://kenyanwallstreet.com/safaricoms-balance-sheet-takes-ksh-111b-hit-as-foreign-exchange-losses-bite/ Facts. With that dividend yield and NBV of KES 5.59, ideally in a functional exchange, it should drop like a hot potato. All that glitters.. Safaricom si KQ  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,249 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Monk wrote:https://kenyanwallstreet.com/safaricoms-balance-sheet-takes-ksh-111b-hit-as-foreign-exchange-losses-bite/ Facts. With that dividend yield and NBV of KES 5.59, ideally in a functional exchange, it should drop like a hot potato. All that glitters.. Safaricom si KQ Hehe. Wewe you are addicted to KQ
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