Wazua
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SAFARICOM H1 2022-2023 EPS down 10%
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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back to 15 with very heavy supply  There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,495 Location: nairobi
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My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:deadpoet wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem Best of luck. With FED rate hikes and the depreciating shilling, I'm not putting any more money into the NSE (though I might be tempted to put more if stocks fall precipitously after their book closure dates). For now, I'll just be moving money around chasing yields. As for existing safcom shareholders, I sympathize. This is how I felt watching my centum bet fall from 14 to 8 bob. A good number of local shareholders bought SCOM at KES 5.. But there are a few mad men and women who bought at highs of KES 20 and above.. Very humbling experience. It's a definite BUY at the moment Even at sub30, Safaricom was a good buy. Madness is buying KQ when they have proven over and over and over again that they are a perennial loser. Einstein said "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results". Fellow wazuans. In life, stay very humble and admit that you cannot know everything. SCOM will likely touch KES 13. It remains a BUY with fair value of KES 17.. Remember the only time the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
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MaichBlack wrote:I even have a feeling the government had a lot to do with the surprising depressed dividend payment by the bank. Someone might need the Bank cash rich for some reason. Back in May. I had a feeling things were not right. The depressed dividends were a red flag. They knew something we didn't. The apparent under provisioning for bad loans. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
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MaichBlack wrote:watesh wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem I would rather get the banks. KCB below 30, a potential dividend of 4 gives it a yield of 13%. I have loads of my daughters money in KCB but I am wondering if this government will spare KCB! Will the government NOT interfere with KCB moving forward? Quagmire, Quagmire, Quagmire!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,495 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:deadpoet wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem Best of luck. With FED rate hikes and the depreciating shilling, I'm not putting any more money into the NSE (though I might be tempted to put more if stocks fall precipitously after their book closure dates). For now, I'll just be moving money around chasing yields. As for existing safcom shareholders, I sympathize. This is how I felt watching my centum bet fall from 14 to 8 bob. A good number of local shareholders bought SCOM at KES 5.. But there are a few mad men and women who bought at highs of KES 20 and above.. Very humbling experience. It's a definite BUY at the moment Even at sub30, Safaricom was a good buy. Madness is buying KQ when they have proven over and over and over again that they are a perennial loser. Einstein said "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results". Fellow wazuans. In life, stay very humble and admit that you cannot know everything. SCOM will likely touch KES 13. It remains a BUY with fair value of KES 17.. Remember the only time the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right The exchange bar lives on
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,495 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:deadpoet wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem Best of luck. With FED rate hikes and the depreciating shilling, I'm not putting any more money into the NSE (though I might be tempted to put more if stocks fall precipitously after their book closure dates). For now, I'll just be moving money around chasing yields. As for existing safcom shareholders, I sympathize. This is how I felt watching my centum bet fall from 14 to 8 bob. A good number of local shareholders bought SCOM at KES 5.. But there are a few mad men and women who bought at highs of KES 20 and above.. Very humbling experience. It's a definite BUY at the moment Even at sub30, Safaricom was a good buy. Madness is buying KQ when they have proven over and over and over again that they are a perennial loser. Einstein said "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results". Fellow wazuans. In life, stay very humble and admit that you cannot know everything. SCOM will likely touch KES 13. It remains a BUY with fair value of KES 17.. Remember the only time the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right The exchange bar lives on KES 13 broken resolutely. KES 9 is not unattainable. Fair value based on till competition, and net mwitu shows revised fair value of KES 16. Remember the only time when the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right. I speak in code
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,066
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Interim results just treading water. Market is interpreting them as good.
Net income +0.6%
Free cash flow down -42%
Net debt up, now 75 billion from 55 billion
No interim dividend.
If they paid the interim rate they did in 2022 (24.8B), not only would they exhaust all the money they have in the bank (20.4B) but they would have to borrow the balance.
Cash flow is tight!!!!!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,095 Location: Nairobi
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My 2 cents wrote:Interim results just treading water. Market is interpreting them as good.
Net income +0.6%
Free cash flow down -42%
Net debt up, now 75 billion from 55 billion
No interim dividend.
If they paid the interim rate they did in 2022 (24.8B), not only would they exhaust all the money they have in the bank (20.4B) but they would have to borrow the balance.
Cash flow is tight!!!!!!! They paid off a huge USD loan so that might explain the reduced cash-on-hand but they will earn the additional KES 4bn to pay an interim dividend (by Feb 2024) given its cashflow. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,671 Location: NAIROBI
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My 2 cents wrote:Interim results just treading water. Market is interpreting them as good.
Net income +0.6%
Free cash flow down -42%
Net debt up, now 75 billion from 55 billion
No interim dividend.
If they paid the interim rate they did in 2022 (24.8B), not only would they exhaust all the money they have in the bank (20.4B) but they would have to borrow the balance.
Cash flow is tight!!!!!!! As time goes by we shall seeing improvement on cashflow as the money sent to support Ethiopia operations starts reducing. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,495 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:deadpoet wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem Best of luck. With FED rate hikes and the depreciating shilling, I'm not putting any more money into the NSE (though I might be tempted to put more if stocks fall precipitously after their book closure dates). For now, I'll just be moving money around chasing yields. As for existing safcom shareholders, I sympathize. This is how I felt watching my centum bet fall from 14 to 8 bob. A good number of local shareholders bought SCOM at KES 5.. But there are a few mad men and women who bought at highs of KES 20 and above.. Very humbling experience. It's a definite BUY at the moment Even at sub30, Safaricom was a good buy. Madness is buying KQ when they have proven over and over and over again that they are a perennial loser. Einstein said "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results". Fellow wazuans. In life, stay very humble and admit that you cannot know everything. SCOM will likely touch KES 13. It remains a BUY with fair value of KES 17.. Remember the only time the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right The exchange bar lives on KES 13 broken resolutely. KES 9 is not unattainable. Fair value based on till competition, and net mwitu shows revised fair value of KES 16. Remember the only time when the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right. I speak in code When an elder speaks, take time to listen, even if you won't act
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,066
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obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:deadpoet wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem Best of luck. With FED rate hikes and the depreciating shilling, I'm not putting any more money into the NSE (though I might be tempted to put more if stocks fall precipitously after their book closure dates). For now, I'll just be moving money around chasing yields. As for existing safcom shareholders, I sympathize. This is how I felt watching my centum bet fall from 14 to 8 bob. A good number of local shareholders bought SCOM at KES 5.. But there are a few mad men and women who bought at highs of KES 20 and above.. Very humbling experience. It's a definite BUY at the moment Even at sub30, Safaricom was a good buy. Madness is buying KQ when they have proven over and over and over again that they are a perennial loser. Einstein said "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results". Fellow wazuans. In life, stay very humble and admit that you cannot know everything. SCOM will likely touch KES 13. It remains a BUY with fair value of KES 17.. Remember the only time the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right The exchange bar lives on KES 13 broken resolutely. KES 9 is not unattainable. Fair value based on till competition, and net mwitu shows revised fair value of KES 16. Remember the only time when the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right. I speak in code When an elder speaks, take time to listen, even if you won't act so will you finally listen to VVS who has countlessy advised you to offload KQ?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,495 Location: nairobi
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My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:deadpoet wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem Best of luck. With FED rate hikes and the depreciating shilling, I'm not putting any more money into the NSE (though I might be tempted to put more if stocks fall precipitously after their book closure dates). For now, I'll just be moving money around chasing yields. As for existing safcom shareholders, I sympathize. This is how I felt watching my centum bet fall from 14 to 8 bob. A good number of local shareholders bought SCOM at KES 5.. But there are a few mad men and women who bought at highs of KES 20 and above.. Very humbling experience. It's a definite BUY at the moment Even at sub30, Safaricom was a good buy. Madness is buying KQ when they have proven over and over and over again that they are a perennial loser. Einstein said "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results". Fellow wazuans. In life, stay very humble and admit that you cannot know everything. SCOM will likely touch KES 13. It remains a BUY with fair value of KES 17.. Remember the only time the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right The exchange bar lives on KES 13 broken resolutely. KES 9 is not unattainable. Fair value based on till competition, and net mwitu shows revised fair value of KES 16. Remember the only time when the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right. I speak in code When an elder speaks, take time to listen, even if you won't act so will you finally listen to VVS who has countlessy advised you to offload KQ? KQ will make a grand return to the NSE in 2025 February. Let us exchange notes then
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,095 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:deadpoet wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem Best of luck. With FED rate hikes and the depreciating shilling, I'm not putting any more money into the NSE (though I might be tempted to put more if stocks fall precipitously after their book closure dates). For now, I'll just be moving money around chasing yields. As for existing safcom shareholders, I sympathize. This is how I felt watching my centum bet fall from 14 to 8 bob. A good number of local shareholders bought SCOM at KES 5.. But there are a few mad men and women who bought at highs of KES 20 and above.. Very humbling experience. It's a definite BUY at the moment Even at sub30, Safaricom was a good buy. Madness is buying KQ when they have proven over and over and over again that they are a perennial loser. Einstein said "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results". Fellow wazuans. In life, stay very humble and admit that you cannot know everything. SCOM will likely touch KES 13. It remains a BUY with fair value of KES 17.. Remember the only time the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right The exchange bar lives on KES 13 broken resolutely. KES 9 is not unattainable. Fair value based on till competition, and net mwitu shows revised fair value of KES 16. Remember the only time when the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right. I speak in code When an elder speaks, take time to listen, even if you won't act so will you finally listen to VVS who has countlessy advised you to offload KQ? KQ will make a grand return to the NSE in 2025 February. Let us exchange notes then  @obiero ni lost cause kama kama kama Karmaleon Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,328 Location: Masada
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obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:deadpoet wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem Best of luck. With FED rate hikes and the depreciating shilling, I'm not putting any more money into the NSE (though I might be tempted to put more if stocks fall precipitously after their book closure dates). For now, I'll just be moving money around chasing yields. As for existing safcom shareholders, I sympathize. This is how I felt watching my centum bet fall from 14 to 8 bob. A good number of local shareholders bought SCOM at KES 5.. But there are a few mad men and women who bought at highs of KES 20 and above.. Very humbling experience. It's a definite BUY at the moment Even at sub30, Safaricom was a good buy. Madness is buying KQ when they have proven over and over and over again that they are a perennial loser. Einstein said "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results". Fellow wazuans. In life, stay very humble and admit that you cannot know everything. SCOM will likely touch KES 13. It remains a BUY with fair value of KES 17.. Remember the only time the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right The exchange bar lives on KES 13 broken resolutely. KES 9 is not unattainable. Fair value based on till competition, and net mwitu shows revised fair value of KES 16. Remember the only time when the exchange bar is wrong, is when it is right. I speak in code When an elder speaks, take time to listen, even if you won't act so will you finally listen to VVS who has countlessy advised you to offload KQ? KQ will make a grand return to the NSE in 2025 February. Let us exchange notes then Madman! Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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