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Is bamburi a good short term play? (<1 year)
Rank: Member Joined: 9/27/2006 Posts: 503
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Pros:
- Construction projects pushing cement consumption to all-time highs
- Low stock price at the moment
Cons:
- Competition
- High input prices (half-year 2021 was positive, but gross margin is terrible)
- Elections
With the above in mind, would bamburi be good for a dividend play (say 3bob, equating to 8-10% dividend yield), or capital appreciation (around 50ish after full-year results? I don't think it will reach its previous highs of 180).
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/bamburi-signals-dividend-from-sh12bn-uganda-deal--4449526Bamburi Cement has signalled that it expects to pay its shareholders a special dividend from the sale of its 70 percent stake in its Uganda subsidiary Hima Cement for $84 million (Ksh12.86 billion), backing investor expectations of a payout that has spurred its shares to a gain of 55 percent in the last two weeks. Bamburi announced on November 15 that it would team up with its sister company Cementia Holding AG to sell their entire ownership in Hima Cement to a consortium of Sarrai Group and Rwimi Holdings for $120 million (Ksh18.4 billion). From the proceeds, Bamburi is entitled to a 70 percent share, while Cementia will bank 30 percent. The article above shows bamburi uganda was valued at 18billion. kenyan unit is 5 times according to volume of business and profitability There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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littledove wrote:https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/bamburi-signals-dividend-from-sh12bn-uganda-deal--4449526Bamburi Cement has signalled that it expects to pay its shareholders a special dividend from the sale of its 70 percent stake in its Uganda subsidiary Hima Cement for $84 million (Ksh12.86 billion), backing investor expectations of a payout that has spurred its shares to a gain of 55 percent in the last two weeks. Bamburi announced on November 15 that it would team up with its sister company Cementia Holding AG to sell their entire ownership in Hima Cement to a consortium of Sarrai Group and Rwimi Holdings for $120 million (Ksh18.4 billion). From the proceeds, Bamburi is entitled to a 70 percent share, while Cementia will bank 30 percent. The article above shows bamburi uganda was valued at 18billion. kenyan unit is 5 times according to volume of business and profitability https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/investors-expect-special-dividend-after-uganda-deal-closure-4550888The Hima unit has historically had a limited dividend distribution record for shareholders, with the last two payouts coming in 2023 and 2016. Bamburi had told shareholders the cumulative statutory net profit of Hima over the five-year period to end of 2022 has been about Ksh965 million ($6.8 million) compared with Ksh5 billion ($35.21 million) for Bamburi. As such, it said, the sale of shares in Hima offers it a “decent on off return” on its investment. There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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littledove wrote:littledove wrote:https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/bamburi-signals-dividend-from-sh12bn-uganda-deal--4449526Bamburi Cement has signalled that it expects to pay its shareholders a special dividend from the sale of its 70 percent stake in its Uganda subsidiary Hima Cement for $84 million (Ksh12.86 billion), backing investor expectations of a payout that has spurred its shares to a gain of 55 percent in the last two weeks. Bamburi announced on November 15 that it would team up with its sister company Cementia Holding AG to sell their entire ownership in Hima Cement to a consortium of Sarrai Group and Rwimi Holdings for $120 million (Ksh18.4 billion). From the proceeds, Bamburi is entitled to a 70 percent share, while Cementia will bank 30 percent. The article above shows bamburi uganda was valued at 18billion. kenyan unit is 5 times according to volume of business and profitability https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/investors-expect-special-dividend-after-uganda-deal-closure-4550888The Hima unit has historically had a limited dividend distribution record for shareholders, with the last two payouts coming in 2023 and 2016. Bamburi had told shareholders the cumulative statutory net profit of Hima over the five-year period to end of 2022 has been about Ksh965 million ($6.8 million) compared with Ksh5 billion ($35.21 million) for Bamburi. As such, it said, the sale of shares in Hima offers it a “decent on off return” on its investment. https://www.theeastafric...ri-buyout-offer-4686212
Tanzania-based conglomerate with diverse interests in energy, construction, food and transport has made a $180 million bid to acquire the entire stake of Bamburi Cement in what will mark one of the largest takeover deals in the East African region. The group issued the notice of intention to launch the public take-over offer through its Kenyan subsidiary and investment vehicle, Amsons Industries (K) Ltd, in a deal that will see Bamburi shareholders paid Ksh65 ($0.51) per share. Uganda unit was sold for 18billion while kenya which is 5times is being sold for 23billion I feel the offer by Amsons Group is not sufficient, we need a counter offer There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/15/2010 Posts: 129 Location: Kenya
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The likes of kina @deadpoet are looking at paper gains of +100%. Not an every day occurrence!
Crazy thing is given that Hima sale cash/per share = 33 even if we lower the special dividend to 20 bob(Amason's said they don't want the special). That is a return of over 30% and then wait for Amason pay day. Crazy!
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/27/2006 Posts: 503
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DtheK wrote:The likes of kina @deadpoet are looking at paper gains of +100%. Not an every day occurrence!
Crazy thing is given that Hima sale cash/per share = 33 even if we lower the special dividend to 20 bob(Amason's said they don't want the special). That is a return of over 30% and then wait for Amason pay day. Crazy! Heh, well not quite +100%, my ABP was 38, so my gain is about 70% When I bought it the price soon fell to below 30 (that's when I really should have piled in). I actually thought the investment was a dud, but I had no choice but to keep on holding over the years. When it rose above 30 I just kind of held it since I didn't have immediate plans to redeploy the investment. It was also below my ABP. Then boom! Announced takeover. This stocks trading thing is not for the faint of heart.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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littledove wrote:littledove wrote:littledove wrote:https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/bamburi-signals-dividend-from-sh12bn-uganda-deal--4449526Bamburi Cement has signalled that it expects to pay its shareholders a special dividend from the sale of its 70 percent stake in its Uganda subsidiary Hima Cement for $84 million (Ksh12.86 billion), backing investor expectations of a payout that has spurred its shares to a gain of 55 percent in the last two weeks. Bamburi announced on November 15 that it would team up with its sister company Cementia Holding AG to sell their entire ownership in Hima Cement to a consortium of Sarrai Group and Rwimi Holdings for $120 million (Ksh18.4 billion). From the proceeds, Bamburi is entitled to a 70 percent share, while Cementia will bank 30 percent. The article above shows bamburi uganda was valued at 18billion. kenyan unit is 5 times according to volume of business and profitability https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/investors-expect-special-dividend-after-uganda-deal-closure-4550888The Hima unit has historically had a limited dividend distribution record for shareholders, with the last two payouts coming in 2023 and 2016. Bamburi had told shareholders the cumulative statutory net profit of Hima over the five-year period to end of 2022 has been about Ksh965 million ($6.8 million) compared with Ksh5 billion ($35.21 million) for Bamburi. As such, it said, the sale of shares in Hima offers it a “decent on off return” on its investment. https://www.theeastafric...ri-buyout-offer-4686212
Tanzania-based conglomerate with diverse interests in energy, construction, food and transport has made a $180 million bid to acquire the entire stake of Bamburi Cement in what will mark one of the largest takeover deals in the East African region. The group issued the notice of intention to launch the public take-over offer through its Kenyan subsidiary and investment vehicle, Amsons Industries (K) Ltd, in a deal that will see Bamburi shareholders paid Ksh65 ($0.51) per share. Uganda unit was sold for 18billion while kenya which is 5times is being sold for 23billion I feel the offer by Amsons Group is not sufficient, we need a counter offer A counter offer by savannah clinker ltd @70 but with a shorter payment period (expect to complete by end of feb 2025). I still feel this is not sufficient, bamburi kenya should atleast fetch double that price of uganda subsidiary There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/27/2006 Posts: 503
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Special dividend at KES 18.25. Hopefully there will be a continuing bidding war for the passengers on this bus.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/23/2007 Posts: 604
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deadpoet wrote:Special dividend at KES 18.25. Hopefully there will be a continuing bidding war for the passengers on this bus. I guess I am late. There is another time.
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Is bamburi a good short term play? (<1 year)
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