LONG THREAD ALERT!!!

It’s been a rollercoaster for the Safaricom share price since its debut at the NSE in June 2008.
The interest among Kenyans in this stock was unprecedented, with every Kenyan investor then wanting to get a piece of its slice. It dwarfs that of Kengen, which had it’s IPO only 2 years earlier in terms of the subscription numbers.
The then government, headed by the late Economist Mwai Kibaki, was looking to raise KES.50 billion to meet both its recurrent and development expenditure. But it was oversubscribed by almost 500%, the government netting almost KES.250 Billion, and unfortunately had to refund the excess amount.
Investors ended up getting a paltry 21.3% of the shares applied for. Though the share rose to KES.8.15 on the 1st trading day, it’s what followed afterwards that caught many investors unaware. The global economy was slowly entering into a recession, which would later erupt in August of the same year and bottom out in early March 2009. By then, our good old Safaricom had fallen from grace to grass, atleast pricewise. From the highs of KEs.8.15, 7 months ago, it had come down to KES.2.50. The investors mood was at its lowest. A Quantitative easing program that was started in March of 2009 by the the Obama administration was quickly adopted by most countries and as a result, Safaricom price, as well as other stocks started lifting up. It would hit KES.6.15 in August 2010 and then start falling again as inflation in our domestic market started to rear its ugly head. Inflation would pick at 18% in November the following year, forcing the then CBK governor Prof. Njuguna Ndungu to raise the Central Bank Rate from 6.25% to over 10% to tame inflation. The stock market had been hit hard and Safaricom, the Bell weather stock had again retreated to KES.2.70 in that month(November 2011), a double bottom of some sort.
It would slowly resume its upward trend after the cbr rise and would finally trade above KES.3(VWAP) in March 2012 after the then President announced to the whole world that Kenya had discovered oil. The good news and the resultant FDI that followed provided Safaricom with some great momentum to begin aiming to target its previous high of KES.8.15 it had set 4 years ago when it listed.
The peaceful presidential election hand over the following year provided the match needed impetus to not only hit KES.5, a level that was reclaimed in November of the same year, but subdue it. The incoming president followed on the economic foundation set by his predecessor but was also big on ICT and sought to move most of the government services online, a move that really benefited Safaricom through its Lipa na Mpesa platform. Kenyans had also embraced smart phones and were now mostly doing business online. Mpesa had also grown in leaps and bounds. Things were working out very well for Safaricom that by November of the following year(2013) the price hit KES.10 for the first time. It went on printing on highs after highs, also helped by the generous dividend policy it had employed over the years. In just 3 years,(from 2013-2016), its price had doubled from KES10 to KES.20. The Covid 19 epidemic was a blessing in disguise for Safaricom as most operations moved online and that meant more business for Safaricom. But it was the news that it was had received a licence to start operations in Ethiopia that gave it the final push pricewise to not only hit KES.40 but print a high of KES.45.25 in August 2021. As fate would have it, the Ethiopian entry euphoria would soon turn into a nightmare as for the first time since November 2011, Safaricom announced a reduction in profits in November 2021 due to losses/huge Investments in the Ethiopian unit and the story has been the same in every successive results announcement.
Again this coincided with another Presidential election hand over, in 2022, which was different from the earlier one of 2013 as this time round, the incoming President sought to undo most of his predecessors policies, including at the board of Safaricom. This, coupled with a deteriorating forex reserve that has led to a depreciation of our currencies versus the dollar, a prolonged drought in the country causing food shortages and a threat to mass action by the opposition leader on March 20th, has continued to spook investors who have responded by punishing its price from a high of KES.45.25 less than 2 years ago to the current situation where for the first time in 6 years, its share price has dropped below KES.20 and is currently trading today the 13th of March 2023 at KES.19.90.
Going forward, should the government enter into negotiations with the opposition and a lasting truce is found, FED goes back to quantitative easing, the Safaricom CEO is reconfirmed after expiry of his 3 year contract at the end of this month, the new government goes slow on any further board/management changes, and Safaricom atleast is able to break even in its Ethiopian entry, I expect Safaricom to reclaim the KES.20 handle.
If this doesn’t happen then we might forget Safaricom at above KES.20 for a number of years from now.

Well narrated

current share price of Safaricom Plc (SCOM) is KES 13.25. SCOM closed its last trading day (Friday, May 12, 2023) at 13.25 KES per share on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), recording a 9.9% drop from its previous closing price of 14.70 KES. Safaricom began the year with a share price of 24.15 KES but has since lost 45.1% off that price valuation, ranking it 62nd on the NSE in terms of year-to-date performance. Shareholders’ worries are compounded by the fact that SCOM has lost 28% of the stock’s value from April 12th to date.

Safaricom bottomed today at 12.85

the number of shares traded raises doubt on the sustenance of current price. it's not looking good, but worth a gamble

When the price hit 12.70 yesterday, I made an order at 13/= but the demand suddenly went through the roof and the share closed at 14/=. Today has been a day of zero supply!!!

These prices are ridiculously low and I am throwing everything in. If 5 years from now I regret, I will regret due to my ACTIONS not INACTION!!!

Lucky you!!! Demand came from nowhere before I could pull the trigger!!!

I need to load up some more on Equity too. If it stay sub 40/= tomorrow I throw the money I have at it. Safaricom and more BAT wait for the dividends and new money!!

Even at 15.30 it is a buy.

Whilst you are busy conspiracy theorising, those of us that are buying Safaricom are making 20% weekly gains.

yesterday volume was 17million, previous day their was simply no supply which explains low volume. today we have a demand of more than 30million below 15 and the supply up to 17 is just 8million this means the chances of going back to 13 are lower than those of going towards 17