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You can see in the image above that the upward trend started in May 2021 after being around 100. What happened at that time that has caused the price to slide at a consistent rate? It's not going up and down, but linear, and more aggressive towards the end.

We saw the the recent news about buying oil in KES, apparently it will ease the demand for USD.

Your question can be answered only by understanding the exact cause, which I don't know. The CBK governor knows.

I hear China devalues its currency to make is cheaper for international buyers to buy Chinese goods. Don't know what the case is for Kenya, maybe it's because of multiple factors. I suspect it's because we import more that we export, the demand being high for USd creates an opportunity for those who hold it to sell it at a higher price.

A fool-proof method would be to back KES with Gold, like what the BRICKS nations want to do with the currency that they will launch. If KES was gold backed, it would be getting stronger against the dollar, because gold price has been going up and the USD has been depreciating.

USD itself has been depreciating since going off the gold standard, while the fed has been making it worse by printing more. The US gained it's superpower status because the whole world has been using USD for global trade. The US has the printer. They can just digitally create any amount and then any country will accept the USD for goods and services.

Zimbabwe under sanctions launched their own gold coin, IMF told them to get rid of it, because the west knows that any currency that's backed is better that a currency that's printed from thin air.

Gaddafi wanted a gold backed African currency, they took him out.

Africa can have a very strong and stable currency that's inflation-proof, simply by backing it by the diverse minerals and resources that it has.

Thanks @ D32. Good analysis.
I remember the US dollar rate a very long time ago, when I first went to the US in 1970, was 7.142.

You're welcome OG.

Must have been great those days with a strong shilling.

Thanks @D32. This one sentence in your response is poignant.

Three months later it emerges that the deal was never for Kenya to buy oil in KES so the pressure on the USD exchange was only being deferred (at best). What's worse is that there are fears that GOK is trying to renegotiate terms on the imminently due repayments on the short-term Saudi and Emirati loans (we entered a 9-month deal to buy directly from them - in USD - at a fixed price, the first payment being due in 6-months, which is about to lapse).

Surely this means that we need to brace ourselves for a disastrous future? To me, when GOK starts negotiating for a variation in terms it means that there will either be a default in the payments, or a bum deal that will be passed on to us, the citizens of this our dear country. Will that new demand for USD not trigger inflation of the kind only seen in the Moi-error (sic)?

How they agreed that this would work still baffles me. Unless there are huge personal interests in the deal.