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Centum 2019/2020
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VituVingiSana
#151 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2021 7:55:08 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Kibe21 wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Centum share price hits fresh 8-year low of ksh.14.90


Fear of a terrible performance FY20 perhaps?


Centum needs a Britam like cleanup with a new CEO.
Mworia has run out of ideas and outlived his usefulness.
Centum is now stuck with dead real estate that are not injecting any cashflows .


They just banked ksh2 billion cash in land sales in Vipingo during a pandemic. The deal pipeline is an estimated 8 billion. The gains are not reflected in the income statement since the revaluation gains were already recognized in the comprehensive income statement and these were done at their current valuations. Pre-sold housing units stand at 10bn with a profit potential of 4bn. Cash collections stand at Ksh230 million a month. These sales wont come into the income statements till they are completed and handed over. I think the real estate is doing just fine given the economic conditions. After years of waiting, they are converting those assets into cash.

This year there is no major asset sale hence the profit warning. Centum has a market cap of ksh10bn vs Ksh8.3 bn in cash, equities, fixed income and mutual funds. The rest of the businesses they own (including real estate) are being valued at Ksh1.7 billion. I see opportunity.

Applause Applause Applause I am trying to buy more but I have little cash on hand.
I have given up on the kelele ya chura.

As you said, the recognition of profits is about timing.

- Non-cash FV gains recognized earlier as per IFRS.
- Cash inflow not in the P&L but shows up in the CF statement.
- "Profits" (a mix of cash and non-cash) only show up after the units are handed over.

The non-cash, non-real estate assets took a beating thanks to COVID but some may come out stronger eg Isuzu and Longhorn. The latter was forced to digitize its content and that should help in the future.

Some e.g. Sabis will need to figure out what's next. Akiira will take longer than anticipated.

And the best thing is that Centum has cash. The Debt:Equity ratio has been reducing.

AMU
If the LNG pipeline is built (DSM-MSA-Lamu) or TZ sells KE LNG which can also be shipped then even Amu may be built though this would take much longer than anticipated. When this happens, a potential write-back (though non-cash at that point) is possible.



The LNG plant is for KENGEN and it will be built in Kilifi.
It's in KENGEN strategic plan.
I was discussing an LNG plant for AMU in Lamu not Kilifi.
Is there no possibility that the LNG pipeline could eventually be extended north to Lamu?
What's the plan to power Lamu Port and environs?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, May 06, 2021 8:08 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#152 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2021 8:11:12 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Kibe21 wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Centum share price hits fresh 8-year low of ksh.14.90


Fear of a terrible performance FY20 perhaps?


Centum needs a Britam like cleanup with a new CEO.
Mworia has run out of ideas and outlived his usefulness.
Centum is now stuck with dead real estate that are not injecting any cashflows .


They just banked ksh2 billion cash in land sales in Vipingo during a pandemic. The deal pipeline is an estimated 8 billion. The gains are not reflected in the income statement since the revaluation gains were already recognized in the comprehensive income statement and these were done at their current valuations. Pre-sold housing units stand at 10bn with a profit potential of 4bn. Cash collections stand at Ksh230 million a month. These sales wont come into the income statements till they are completed and handed over. I think the real estate is doing just fine given the economic conditions. After years of waiting, they are converting those assets into cash.

This year there is no major asset sale hence the profit warning. Centum has a market cap of ksh10bn vs Ksh8.3 bn in cash, equities, fixed income and mutual funds. The rest of the businesses they own (including real estate) are being valued at Ksh1.7 billion. I see opportunity.

Applause Applause Applause I am trying to buy more but I have little cash on hand.
I have given up on the kelele ya chura.

As you said, the recognition of profits is about timing.

- Non-cash FV gains recognized earlier as per IFRS.
- Cash inflow not in the P&L but shows up in the CF statement.
- "Profits" (a mix of cash and non-cash) only show up after the units are handed over.

The non-cash, non-real estate assets took a beating thanks to COVID but some may come out stronger eg Isuzu and Longhorn. The latter was forced to digitize its content and that should help in the future.

Some e.g. Sabis will need to figure out what's next. Akiira will take longer than anticipated.

And the best thing is that Centum has cash. The Debt:Equity ratio has been reducing.

AMU
If the LNG pipeline is built (DSM-MSA-Lamu) or TZ sells KE LNG which can also be shipped then even Amu may be built though this would take much longer than anticipated. When this happens, a potential write-back (though non-cash at that point) is possible.


Sabis projected to break even in the financial year ending March 2022. Good news! Though I think that's ambitious. Parents may be reluctant to embrace boarding schools. BUT I am rooting for them!

Akiira will definitely take time but its valuation is small. Yes, for now. Though from the last communication about Akiira, Centum may rope in more partners and reduce their %. First things first, they need to find sufficient productive wells. Not easy!

Isuzu is back to paying dividends and Longhorn may be challenged in Kenya because of the school closure but they more than doubled revenue in Uganda and also had significant growth in Tanzania. Expansion to Central Africa has began. On Isuzu, it's good to read it is Kenya's #1 assembler and perhaps EAC. Cars/pickups/buses are here to stay for many more years. I do not know what Isuzu's "contracts" are but it would be nice to see it start assembling EVs or hybrids that are "Kenyanized" for our roads.
Longhorn is in the content business. I am proud to see they are expanding into Francophone countries. Huge market! The FY21 report from LKL will make good reading.

Amu was written off back in the previous financial year. Yes. It's all neutral or upside from here.

Sidian Bank is still profitable and once CBK allows banks to utilize the revoked interest rate cap, we may see some growth and hopefully pay dividends to Centum by 2025. They also have an investor on board with Tier 2 capital with an option to convert.


Greenblade growers will start paying dividends going forward and from Mworia's tweet they approved 50% increase in production capacity for export. I did not know Applause Applause Applause Nice! A pity the UG deal fell through but I am sure they can find someone else to lease them land.

PLEASE keep on updating us as to what's happening.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#153 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2021 8:17:19 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Two Rivers

The ongoing construction at Two Rivers is going on at a nice pace.
I need to tour each of the Two Rivers projects.
Of course, the devil is in the sales!
Unlike single houses eg Awali, you can't build as they are sold/contracted when you build high-rise towers.

@watesh - They said in their presentation that they break ground when they have 30% pre-sales.
Questions:
Are pre-sales guaranteed sales?
For such projects what's the minimum sales needed to break even?
*I know this is a very broad question. Lots of variables from sales price, financing, construction costs, etc. I am looking for insights.

I wonder how the tenants at TR Mall are doing. It would not surprise me if a few close and others get a rent reduction. The "entertainment" side may do okay as people want to go out pot-COVID.

Vipingo

The desalination plant (in Kilifi) is ready. That's a huge differentiator for Centum. I have friends in Mombasa who order water and it's always a dodgy affair.

Any progress on the road from Mombasa to Kilifi?

I read the Mall at Vipingo will be ready mid-2022 (need confirmation) but it doesn't belong to Centum from what I read. Someone else bought the land.

There's a cashew nut factory coming up. Applause Applause Applause I love local value addition.

@watesh When will buyers of 1255 Palms will start taking delivery of their units?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, May 06, 2021 8:24 PM | Reason: Not specified
Ericsson
#154 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2021 10:26:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Kibe21 wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Centum share price hits fresh 8-year low of ksh.14.90


Fear of a terrible performance FY20 perhaps?


Centum needs a Britam like cleanup with a new CEO.
Mworia has run out of ideas and outlived his usefulness.
Centum is now stuck with dead real estate that are not injecting any cashflows .


They just banked ksh2 billion cash in land sales in Vipingo during a pandemic. The deal pipeline is an estimated 8 billion. The gains are not reflected in the income statement since the revaluation gains were already recognized in the comprehensive income statement and these were done at their current valuations. Pre-sold housing units stand at 10bn with a profit potential of 4bn. Cash collections stand at Ksh230 million a month. These sales wont come into the income statements till they are completed and handed over. I think the real estate is doing just fine given the economic conditions. After years of waiting, they are converting those assets into cash.

This year there is no major asset sale hence the profit warning. Centum has a market cap of ksh10bn vs Ksh8.3 bn in cash, equities, fixed income and mutual funds. The rest of the businesses they own (including real estate) are being valued at Ksh1.7 billion. I see opportunity.

Applause Applause Applause I am trying to buy more but I have little cash on hand.
I have given up on the kelele ya chura.

As you said, the recognition of profits is about timing.

- Non-cash FV gains recognized earlier as per IFRS.
- Cash inflow not in the P&L but shows up in the CF statement.
- "Profits" (a mix of cash and non-cash) only show up after the units are handed over.

The non-cash, non-real estate assets took a beating thanks to COVID but some may come out stronger eg Isuzu and Longhorn. The latter was forced to digitize its content and that should help in the future.

Some e.g. Sabis will need to figure out what's next. Akiira will take longer than anticipated.

And the best thing is that Centum has cash. The Debt:Equity ratio has been reducing.

AMU
If the LNG pipeline is built (DSM-MSA-Lamu) or TZ sells KE LNG which can also be shipped then even Amu may be built though this would take much longer than anticipated. When this happens, a potential write-back (though non-cash at that point) is possible.



The LNG plant is for KENGEN and it will be built in Kilifi.
It's in KENGEN strategic plan.
I was discussing an LNG plant for AMU in Lamu not Kilifi.
Is there no possibility that the LNG pipeline could eventually be extended north to Lamu?No possibility
What's the plan to power Lamu Port and environs?

It's already powered through a high voltage ⚡line from Rabai (Mombasa)-Malindi-Garsen-Lamu
And
Kindaruma-Mwingi-Garissa-Lamu
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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WWW
  | | Edit by user: Thursday, May 06, 2021 10:44 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#155 Posted : Friday, May 07, 2021 9:27:08 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Kibe21 wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Centum share price hits fresh 8-year low of ksh.14.90


Fear of a terrible performance FY20 perhaps?


Centum needs a Britam like cleanup with a new CEO.
Mworia has run out of ideas and outlived his usefulness.
Centum is now stuck with dead real estate that are not injecting any cashflows .


They just banked ksh2 billion cash in land sales in Vipingo during a pandemic. The deal pipeline is an estimated 8 billion. The gains are not reflected in the income statement since the revaluation gains were already recognized in the comprehensive income statement and these were done at their current valuations. Pre-sold housing units stand at 10bn with a profit potential of 4bn. Cash collections stand at Ksh230 million a month. These sales wont come into the income statements till they are completed and handed over. I think the real estate is doing just fine given the economic conditions. After years of waiting, they are converting those assets into cash.

This year there is no major asset sale hence the profit warning. Centum has a market cap of ksh10bn vs Ksh8.3 bn in cash, equities, fixed income and mutual funds. The rest of the businesses they own (including real estate) are being valued at Ksh1.7 billion. I see opportunity.

Applause Applause Applause I am trying to buy more but I have little cash on hand.
I have given up on the kelele ya chura.

As you said, the recognition of profits is about timing.

- Non-cash FV gains recognized earlier as per IFRS.
- Cash inflow not in the P&L but shows up in the CF statement.
- "Profits" (a mix of cash and non-cash) only show up after the units are handed over.

The non-cash, non-real estate assets took a beating thanks to COVID but some may come out stronger eg Isuzu and Longhorn. The latter was forced to digitize its content and that should help in the future.

Some e.g. Sabis will need to figure out what's next. Akiira will take longer than anticipated.

And the best thing is that Centum has cash. The Debt:Equity ratio has been reducing.

AMU
If the LNG pipeline is built (DSM-MSA-Lamu) or TZ sells KE LNG which can also be shipped then even Amu may be built though this would take much longer than anticipated. When this happens, a potential write-back (though non-cash at that point) is possible.



The LNG plant is for KENGEN and it will be built in Kilifi.
It's in KENGEN strategic plan.
I was discussing an LNG plant for AMU in Lamu not Kilifi.
Is there no possibility that the LNG pipeline could eventually be extended north to Lamu?No possibility
What's the plan to power Lamu Port and environs?

It's already powered through a high voltage ⚡line from Rabai (Mombasa)-Malindi-Garsen-Lamu
And
Kindaruma-Mwingi-Garissa-Lamu
Then what/who was Amu going to supply? There must have been some plan.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  |
Ericsson
#156 Posted : Friday, May 07, 2021 11:03:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Kibe21 wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Centum share price hits fresh 8-year low of ksh.14.90


Fear of a terrible performance FY20 perhaps?


Centum needs a Britam like cleanup with a new CEO.
Mworia has run out of ideas and outlived his usefulness.
Centum is now stuck with dead real estate that are not injecting any cashflows .


They just banked ksh2 billion cash in land sales in Vipingo during a pandemic. The deal pipeline is an estimated 8 billion. The gains are not reflected in the income statement since the revaluation gains were already recognized in the comprehensive income statement and these were done at their current valuations. Pre-sold housing units stand at 10bn with a profit potential of 4bn. Cash collections stand at Ksh230 million a month. These sales wont come into the income statements till they are completed and handed over. I think the real estate is doing just fine given the economic conditions. After years of waiting, they are converting those assets into cash.

This year there is no major asset sale hence the profit warning. Centum has a market cap of ksh10bn vs Ksh8.3 bn in cash, equities, fixed income and mutual funds. The rest of the businesses they own (including real estate) are being valued at Ksh1.7 billion. I see opportunity.

Applause Applause Applause I am trying to buy more but I have little cash on hand.
I have given up on the kelele ya chura.

As you said, the recognition of profits is about timing.

- Non-cash FV gains recognized earlier as per IFRS.
- Cash inflow not in the P&L but shows up in the CF statement.
- "Profits" (a mix of cash and non-cash) only show up after the units are handed over.

The non-cash, non-real estate assets took a beating thanks to COVID but some may come out stronger eg Isuzu and Longhorn. The latter was forced to digitize its content and that should help in the future.

Some e.g. Sabis will need to figure out what's next. Akiira will take longer than anticipated.

And the best thing is that Centum has cash. The Debt:Equity ratio has been reducing.

AMU
If the LNG pipeline is built (DSM-MSA-Lamu) or TZ sells KE LNG which can also be shipped then even Amu may be built though this would take much longer than anticipated. When this happens, a potential write-back (though non-cash at that point) is possible.



The LNG plant is for KENGEN and it will be built in Kilifi.
It's in KENGEN strategic plan.
I was discussing an LNG plant for AMU in Lamu not Kilifi.
Is there no possibility that the LNG pipeline could eventually be extended north to Lamu?No possibility
What's the plan to power Lamu Port and environs?

It's already powered through a high voltage ⚡line from Rabai (Mombasa)-Malindi-Garsen-Lamu
And
Kindaruma-Mwingi-Garissa-Lamu
Then what/who was Amu going to supply? There must have been some plan.

Plan was for brokers and tenderpreneurs make their money/cut.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#157 Posted : Monday, June 14, 2021 3:58:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Top shareholder of Centum Dr Chris Kirubi has passed away.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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WWW
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Much Know
#158 Posted : Monday, June 14, 2021 4:04:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,579
Pray the don is dead
Ras Kienyeji Man
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Kenyan Oracle
#159 Posted : Monday, June 14, 2021 4:14:48 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 262
Ericsson wrote:
Top shareholder of Centum Dr Chris Kirubi has passed away.



How will this affect the share?
You lose money chasing women, but you never lose women chasing money - NAS
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sparkly
#160 Posted : Monday, June 14, 2021 5:28:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Kenyan Oracle wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Top shareholder of Centum Dr Chris Kirubi has passed away.



How will this affect the share?


Panic selling
Life is short. Live passionately.
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