Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,211 Location: nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:Horton wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042 @Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2 This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19. Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities 3Q and 4Q will be better indicators. Real losses (vs ECL) will start crystalizing over the next 12 months. Yes. Q3 will be the truth post 90 days unpaid arrears for consumer book Plus those paying interim dividends will retain the norm. KCB may hike to 1.25 If these estimates are as accurate as they usually are, we are looking at KCB/EQTY back to 40-45 levels Based on falling prices in other sectors, market will be unmoved. Expect lower prices. The third wave isn't helping matters
KQ ABP 4.26
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