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Exit strategy. What's yours?
2012
#1 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 12:30:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
I know like myself most of you are not buying with the aim of occupying a seat on the boards. So what's your exit strategy if you have one, or do you flow with the river?

I always do 30% but keep counters which I believe have enormous future potentials (if only they could see it) hopefully for that seat eg KPLC, Kenya Re, HFCK.

Now over to you, maybe I could learn a thing or two because I'm currently re-evaluating my entire strategic plan to come up with a new one for the next 3-5yrs. Made a few costly mistakes in the 2007-2010 turbulence which I would not want repeated.

BBI will solve it
:)
Wa_ithaka
#2 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 12:49:01 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Good topic 2012.
I don't about other investors, but I struggle with exit than entry strategy. I blame it on greed.

Generic exit strategy is 25% gains. Otherwise I just adopt one as per share.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
the deal
#3 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 12:51:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
i never settle for less than 50%...it's a crime if i did that...lol..
mukiha
#4 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 12:54:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Here; here @wa_Ithaka. Exit is more difficult than entry....isn't that what they about Mombasa?

For me, a lot depends on what I want to do with the cash. If I'm on a buying run, I begin exiting at 10%. But hardly do I get out kabisa. In the last 10yrs, I've dumped only one share for good!

Usually, just sell enough to recover the profit gained and/or to purchase the desired new entry.
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
mukiha
#5 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 12:57:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@Wa_Ithaka; many wazuans assume your name is Waithaka. I think it is wa-Isaac. May be baba/mama Isaac; or son/daughter of Isaac. True?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 12:58:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
Different per firm... I (normally) buy based on a perceived discount to the 'intrinsic' price & the discount generally varies from stock to stock...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mukiha
#7 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 1:01:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
VituVingiSana wrote:
Different per firm... I (normally) buy based on a perceived discount to the 'intrinsic' price & the discount generally varies from stock to stock...

.....and exit how?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 1:02:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
mukiha wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Different per firm... I (normally) buy based on a perceived discount to the 'intrinsic' price & the discount generally varies from stock to stock...

.....and exit how?
Exit how? I sell... What other way is there of exiting?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Wa_ithaka
#9 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 1:20:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
mukiha wrote:
@Wa_Ithaka; many wazuans assume your name is Waithaka. I think it is wa-Isaac. May be baba/mama Isaac; or son/daughter of Isaac. True?

Nope. Its Waithaka, named after my guka.

VVS-when do you decide to sell?
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 1:24:36 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
Wa_ithaka wrote:
mukiha wrote:
@Wa_Ithaka; many wazuans assume your name is Waithaka. I think it is wa-Isaac. May be baba/mama Isaac; or son/daughter of Isaac. True?

Nope. Its Waithaka, named after my guka.

VVS-when do you decide to sell?

When I think I have found a better investment relative to what I own... I dont hold much cash... BUT selling is HARDER to buying... LOL...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
StatMeister
#11 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 1:59:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
My sell strategy is largely based on 3 factors:

(1) What is the likelihood of the stock moving forwards? If this is dangerously low (< 75%), fundamentals, technical analyses, hype, etc

(2) If a stock retreats by more than 10% or stays same price even after news (think SASINI), I bite the bullet. Helps to ensure I don't stay on board a bear or stag, good old power is an exception

(3) Liquidity - as VVS puts it, is there a better deal? (Oh how I wish I had infinite liquidity!!!)

I had posted a thread (Strategy Quest) sometime ago on risk mitigation, since growth and risk strategies tend to become weaker as the portfolio size increases (how do u dump 1m SASINI shares in 1 day, or if there is good news, where do you buy them?).
At some point, you just have to buy those infrastructure bonds however enticing the stocks are . . .
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
mukiha
#12 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 2:03:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
VituVingiSana wrote:
mukiha wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Different per firm... I (normally) buy based on a perceived discount to the 'intrinsic' price & the discount generally varies from stock to stock...

.....and exit how?
Exit how? I sell... What other way is there of exiting?

Hi!!Hi!!Hi!!Hi!!Hi!!Hi!!Hi!!Hi!!Hi!!Hi!!Hi!!
Ho!!Ho!!Ho!!Ho!!Ho!!Ho!!Ho!!Ho!!Ho!!Ho!!Ho!!
Hu!!Hu!!Hu!!Hu!!Hu!!Hu!!Hu!!Hu!!Hu!!Hu!!Hu!!
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 2:04:53 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
@stat - That is a problem with general buy recommendations... especially for illiquid stocks coz there is a rush... the price rises... and you cant buy what you want... Even worse when you go to sell!!!

Someone wealthy said when asked the secret of investing: I never buy at the bottom & sell at the top...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sheep
#14 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 3:19:07 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
Being just a toddler in this investing game I am yet to find a suitable style...I have studied the market a great deal and come to an independent conclusion that there is no much upside to the index 700-1200 at most...then a significant 30% dip or more that will wipe that grin outta john come latelys investors faces...in short it will be a decade of a impoverishing sideways grinding trend until all the sins of 2004-2008 speculative mania period are paid for and the market sells at a P/E of 7 or so...well thats what the charts foresee...or maybe I just want to lock in the profits and use them for other endeavors thats why I convince myself so....but any way I am not adding a single cent to the NSE pyramid scheme at these levels...I just need to maintain what I have and build an investment arsenal for future bargains.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
atiriri
#15 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 3:21:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/7/2009
Posts: 320
Location: nairobi
I find it very very difficult to sell my shares. It has never been easy for me. This has made me make some of the biggest mistakes.
StatMeister
#16 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 3:39:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
@vvs, I think of the KCB rights issue as a call option.

Investors are faced with two options:
a)hold their positions and carry the risk of the share trading below 17

b)or, sell the share @ 18.5 and buy the rights at 0.5 (this is a hedge against the share trading below 18 - this is obvious now as the share is <17.75)
- If the share goes below 16.5 before rights closure, they can skip their rights, lose a max of 0.5*2% comm, and buy the actual share.
- If the share remains at or above 17.5, exercise the rights at 17.

If I was a KCB shareholder, i'd have taken option (b). . . but am not (they almost busted their capital margin that’s why they are issuing rights . . ., and they will keep issuing and the share will keep going down instead of up)

As for now, have they actually said what they want to do with 15bn or they are just saying they want it? Come to think of it, why are they issuing rights when they could just re-invest their 6bn profits for 2 years, cost free?
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 3:54:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
@statmeister - It is a call option.

I am going with option B. I sold my KCB @ 18.65 (less commissions)... I will NOT buy Rights just apply for 'additional' shares if need be...

As for will I exercise my Rights? Depends on 2Q results! And if KCB trades at above 17/-...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
StatMeister
#18 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 3:54:14 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
@ pro-KPLC wazuans, when KPLC conversion comes and either the share starts to look risky or the market price is much higher than the conversion, then I will switch shares for plenty of rights

of course if i will be liquid, i'll prefer to hold + exercise . . .)

But don’t worry, lots of investors (pension funds et al) won’t mind owning 100% KPLC
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
StatMeister
#19 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 3:58:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
VituVingiSana wrote:
@statmeister - It is a call option.

I am going with option B. I sold my KCB @ 18.65 (less commissions)... I will NOT buy Rights just apply for 'additional' shares if need be...

As for will I exercise my Rights? Depends on 2Q results! And if KCB trades at above 17/-...


@vvs, kudos . . . that nomination as best analyst on wazua last week is well deserved
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
VituVingiSana
#20 Posted : Monday, July 12, 2010 4:15:55 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
@statmeister - You laid out the options very well...

Last week, I saw Rights trading at 1/- so at 18.65 (less costs) I was already 'ahead' of the Strike Price + Rights Premium...

I knew the Rights would 'fall' in price coz GoK had not come on the market + folks start selling Rights as we get closer to Trading Expiration date...

Anyway, all said & done...

If the subscription is less than 50% + 2Q results are so-so... the sellers might come out in force thus a sub-17 is possible...

Similar but not so drastic wud be sub-100% subscription...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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