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Safaricom 2020/2021
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2020 10:31:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli


EBIT down 10.4% y/y to KES 45bn (UNDERWHELMING)
This is 11.5% below estimates

M-Pesa was also down by 14.5% y/y to KES 35.90bn


Service Revenue – KES 118.41, -5.2% y/y

Mobile Data however was up +12.2% y/y to KES 22.2bn,

Voice revenue was down -6.0% y/y to KES 44.1bn,

Safaricom has reinstated their guidance for the year – EBIT – KES 91-94bn down from KES 101.5bn in FY20, due to continued effects from pandemic.

Currently at the market, the stock has hit a low of 30 as we speak.
Could @Mnandii's prediction of KES.14 come to pass. The last time Scom registered a fall in EBIT was 2011/2012........8years ago. Time will tell.
@SufficientlyP
Ericsson
#2 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2020 10:44:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:


EBIT down 10.4% y/y to KES 45bn (UNDERWHELMING)
This is 11.5% below estimates

M-Pesa was also down by 14.5% y/y to KES 35.90bn


Service Revenue – KES 118.41, -5.2% y/y

Mobile Data however was up +12.2% y/y to KES 22.2bn,

Voice revenue was down -6.0% y/y to KES 44.1bn,

Safaricom has reinstated their guidance for the year – EBIT – KES 91-94bn down from KES 101.5bn in FY20, due to continued effects from pandemic.

Currently at the market, the stock has hit a low of 30 as we speak.
Could @Mnandii's prediction of KES.14 come to pass. The last time Scom registered a fall in EBIT was 2011/2012........8years ago. Time will tell.


11.5% below whose estimates?
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#3 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2020 10:57:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Ericsson wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:


EBIT down 10.4% y/y to KES 45bn (UNDERWHELMING)
This is 11.5% below estimates

M-Pesa was also down by 14.5% y/y to KES 35.90bn


Service Revenue – KES 118.41, -5.2% y/y

Mobile Data however was up +12.2% y/y to KES 22.2bn,

Voice revenue was down -6.0% y/y to KES 44.1bn,

Safaricom has reinstated their guidance for the year – EBIT – KES 91-94bn down from KES 101.5bn in FY20, due to continued effects from pandemic.

Currently at the market, the stock has hit a low of 30 as we speak.
Could @Mnandii's prediction of KES.14 come to pass. The last time Scom registered a fall in EBIT was 2011/2012........8years ago. Time will tell.


11.5% below whose estimates?


Market Makers aka PPT.
ION, floor of 30 looks secure for now after an initial threat.
In 2011 Nov, when Safaricom announced a 47% drop in H1 EPS, we were all over here saying how Scom will go sub 2 at market open. That never happened. Instead, Safaricom went on to reclaim the 3 handle and the rest is history.
@SufficientlyP
Ericsson
#4 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2020 11:00:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:


EBIT down 10.4% y/y to KES 45bn (UNDERWHELMING)
This is 11.5% below estimates

M-Pesa was also down by 14.5% y/y to KES 35.90bn


Service Revenue – KES 118.41, -5.2% y/y

Mobile Data however was up +12.2% y/y to KES 22.2bn,

Voice revenue was down -6.0% y/y to KES 44.1bn,

Safaricom has reinstated their guidance for the year – EBIT – KES 91-94bn down from KES 101.5bn in FY20, due to continued effects from pandemic.

Currently at the market, the stock has hit a low of 30 as we speak.
Could @Mnandii's prediction of KES.14 come to pass. The last time Scom registered a fall in EBIT was 2011/2012........8years ago. Time will tell.



I would give a price of 20.
The company is on course to make more than kes.60bn PAT so 14 is far fetched
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
longtrader
#5 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2020 11:25:36 AM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 11/5/2019
Posts: 6
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:


EBIT down 10.4% y/y to KES 45bn (UNDERWHELMING)
This is 11.5% below estimates

M-Pesa was also down by 14.5% y/y to KES 35.90bn


Service Revenue – KES 118.41, -5.2% y/y

Mobile Data however was up +12.2% y/y to KES 22.2bn,

Voice revenue was down -6.0% y/y to KES 44.1bn,

Safaricom has reinstated their guidance for the year – EBIT – KES 91-94bn down from KES 101.5bn in FY20, due to continued effects from pandemic.

Currently at the market, the stock has hit a low of 30 as we speak.
Could @Mnandii's prediction of KES.14 come to pass. The last time Scom registered a fall in EBIT was 2011/2012........8years ago. Time will tell.



The results given the environment esp in Q1 are satisfactory. The CFO graphs show a v shaped recovery with the dip in Q1. Q2 results are not far behind from FY20 Q4 results.
Higher spend in CAPEX should deliver value in the following quarters
EBIT guidance gives 91B-94B compared to last years 101.5B, I believe dividend could be maintained at 1.40

Growth in customer numbers is also noted.
murchr
#6 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2020 4:17:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Not bad for a year such as 2020, they cut their transaction rates, no gaming, reduced trade, everyone is conservative with their spending so really, this is not bad
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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