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Is it the right time to buy CENTUM?
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 969 Location: Kenya
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deadpoet wrote:watesh wrote:Kibe21 wrote:Pronounced dead in 2012 while trading @12/=.
8 years later and trading at covid discount of 21.50/= I'd say it's the right time to buy. What say you @Ericsson and the rest of wazua community? I am piling up this stock. In my opinion it's cheap on a valuation basis. First with the new dividend policy, we essentially have a guaranteed dividend every year that either goes up or stays the same. Their real estate investments are finally coming into the revenue section of the income statement since their first hand overs of the Vipingo Dev were to be in August and others December. They already sold land worth Ksh2.6 billion and it's still hasn't been recognized in the income statement till all the legal steps are done. Two new real estate projects have been announced in ideal locations. They have a sizeable cash pile ready to be deployed, talks are ongoing but I dont see anything being announced any time soon, maybe next year. Two Rivers has added a number of tenants this year and more to come. Ace Holding is close to breaking even. Debt has been fully paid down. Stock is cum dividend and it is trading lower than what it was trading in 2013. Headwinds: Longhorn (their biggest dividend payer currently) will be in challenges for the next 2 years minimum, Sidian bank is back to losses. Isuzu for sure has recorded decreased sales. Nas Servair hasnt been operational since airport was closed. Aren't all the above significant chunks of their portfolio? How do you know ACE is breaking even, and what's the likelihood they'll strike a geothermal well? That said, there is a proposed stock buyback plan, which has worked wonders for companies in the US. Based on their valuations, ACE is 2% of their assets (they were at 171 students as at March and break even is 210. CEO said in his most recent interview that they have not experienced any churn during the pandemic), Longhorn is 1.8%, Isuzu is 5.1%, Sidian is 5.4% (Had been in losses since interest rate cap, was finally profitable last year but now back into losses) so in total they are not that significant and it’s only Longhorn & Isuzu who have paid dividends to Centum. The geothermal is 3% of their portfolio and it's a 50 - 50 chance to get a well so don’t bank on it. They decided not to sink in more cash, the other investors will provide the funding. The most important asset for the company is its real estate portfolio which takes time to actually bring in money in the bank. Centum has ALOT of assets but the vast majority are not cash generating hence why there is a lag in the share price. They need time to mature first. I don't think the share buyback will not be happening in this financial year, the next one maybe. This is because of the low amount of cash they currently generate and a large number of opportunities available to them. However, Kirubi will mop up shares in the mean time as per the announcement he made.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/27/2006 Posts: 503
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I guess you're right. The investments, even though worth billions/hundreds of millions, are still small percentages of the total portfolio. Also not every company can shrug off a Ksh 2 billion investment (lamu coal) and keep moving.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Longhorn FY results https://pbs.twimg.com/me...mat=jpg&name=medium
Loss before tax of ksh.295.34mn Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 9/24/2012 Posts: 20 Location: Tatu city
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Dividend book closure October 2nd 2020 https://centum.co.ke/ima...docs/53rd_AGM_Notice.pdfThe smart man learns the truth and screams it at others to try to change their mind to his own lifestyle’s detriment. The wise man learns the truth and applies it to his life. Others learn the truth from watching him.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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watesh wrote:deadpoet wrote:watesh wrote:Kibe21 wrote:Pronounced dead in 2012 while trading @12/=.
8 years later and trading at covid discount of 21.50/= I'd say it's the right time to buy. What say you @Ericsson and the rest of wazua community? I am piling up this stock. In my opinion it's cheap on a valuation basis. First with the new dividend policy, we essentially have a guaranteed dividend every year that either goes up or stays the same. Their real estate investments are finally coming into the revenue section of the income statement since their first hand overs of the Vipingo Dev were to be in August and others December. They already sold land worth Ksh2.6 billion and it's still hasn't been recognized in the income statement till all the legal steps are done. Two new real estate projects have been announced in ideal locations. They have a sizeable cash pile ready to be deployed, talks are ongoing but I dont see anything being announced any time soon, maybe next year. Two Rivers has added a number of tenants this year and more to come. Ace Holding is close to breaking even. Debt has been fully paid down. Stock is cum dividend and it is trading lower than what it was trading in 2013. Headwinds: Longhorn (their biggest dividend payer currently) will be in challenges for the next 2 years minimum, Sidian bank is back to losses. Isuzu for sure has recorded decreased sales. Nas Servair hasnt been operational since airport was closed. Aren't all the above significant chunks of their portfolio? How do you know ACE is breaking even, and what's the likelihood they'll strike a geothermal well? That said, there is a proposed stock buyback plan, which has worked wonders for companies in the US. Based on their valuations, ACE is 2% of their assets (they were at 171 students as at March and break even is 210. CEO said in his most recent interview that they have not experienced any churn during the pandemic), Longhorn is 1.8%, Isuzu is 5.1%, Sidian is 5.4% (Had been in losses since interest rate cap, was finally profitable last year but now back into losses) so in total they are not that significant and it’s only Longhorn & Isuzu who have paid dividends to Centum. The geothermal is 3% of their portfolio and it's a 50 - 50 chance to get a well so don’t bank on it. They decided not to sink in more cash, the other investors will provide the funding. The most important asset for the company is its real estate portfolio which takes time to actually bring in money in the bank. Centum has ALOT of assets but the vast majority are not cash generating hence why there is a lag in the share price. They need time to mature first. I don't think the share buyback will not be happening in this financial year, the next one maybe. This is because of the low amount of cash they currently generate and a large number of opportunities available to them. However, Kirubi will mop up shares in the mean time as per the announcement he made. Two Rivers Mall, Centum stake is 28.6%. Old Mutual properties own 50% AVIC 19.1% ICDC 2.3% Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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https://www.businessdail...17194-llwsw5z/index.htmlWealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/27/2006 Posts: 503
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Ericsson wrote:https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/Centum-eyes-lower-dividend-over-Covid19/4003102-5617194-llwsw5z/index.html the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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https://www.businessdail...618970-17bv3/index.html
Centum Investment Company agreed to compensate the buyer of its Coca-Cola beverage businesses to the tune of $34.4 million (Sh3.7 billion) representing tax demands by the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) The High Court in 2012 allowed the KRA to collect the taxes, a decision that was overturned in July last year by the Court of Appeal. The taxman subsequently appealed the ruling at the Supreme Court of Kenya which will make the final decision.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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https://www.businessdail...24270-hm7n14/index.html
Fundamentals have changed and kirubi is no longer interested in raising his stake to 50% Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Share price on the verge of going below 20 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Ericsson wrote:Share price on the verge of going below 20 They will meet with NMG share price. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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Ericsson wrote:Share price on the verge of going below 20 My eyes trained on this, feels like chirubai is letting the flood gates wide open. Sniffing the streets for the bathe,,, ppt overwhelmed,,,,  ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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muandiwambeu wrote:Ericsson wrote:Share price on the verge of going below 20 My eyes trained on this, feels like chirubai is letting the flood gates wide open. Sniffing the streets for the bathe,,, ppt overwhelmed,,,, Waiting for the dividend. I might reinvest it into Centum. It's about patience and one's feelings at the time. Law #1: Optimism and pessimism will always overshoot because the boundaries of both can only be known in hindsight, once they’re passed. - Morgan Housel Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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VituVingiSana wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Ericsson wrote:Share price on the verge of going below 20 My eyes trained on this, feels like chirubai is letting the flood gates wide open. Sniffing the streets for the bathe,,, ppt overwhelmed,,,, Waiting for the dividend. I might reinvest it into Centum. It's about patience and one's feelings at the time. Law #1: Optimism and pessimism will always overshoot because the boundaries of both can only be known in hindsight, once they’re passed. - Morgan Housel Tomorrow will be a better day. Follow your insinticts. There is no medicine like hope, no incentive so great, and no tonic so powerful as expectation of something better tomorrow.  the ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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VituVingiSana wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Ericsson wrote:Share price on the verge of going below 20 My eyes trained on this, feels like chirubai is letting the flood gates wide open. Sniffing the streets for the bathe,,, ppt overwhelmed,,,, Waiting for the dividend. I might reinvest it into Centum. It's about patience and one's feelings at the time. Law #1: Optimism and pessimism will always overshoot because the boundaries of both can only be known in hindsight, once they’re passed. - Morgan Housel ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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muandiwambeu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Ericsson wrote:Share price on the verge of going below 20 My eyes trained on this, feels like chirubai is letting the flood gates wide open. Sniffing the streets for the bathe,,, ppt overwhelmed,,,, Waiting for the dividend. I might reinvest it into Centum. It's about patience and one's feelings at the time. Law #1: Optimism and pessimism will always overshoot because the boundaries of both can only be known in hindsight, once they’re passed. - Morgan Housel Tomorrow will be a better day. Follow your insinticts. There is no medicine like hope, no incentive so great, and no tonic so powerful as expectation of something better tomorrow. the For a business like Centum, there will be hits and misses in the portfolio. Real estate will struggle but unlike HAFR or Cytonn, Centum seems OK. They are going to handover Awali Phase 1 (in Kilifi) to the buyers on 10th October. Longhorn took a huge hit but schools are re-opening and it has a digital and mobile product now. This is about the future for LKL which owns a lot of content. We have discussed others e.g. Amu, etc. At these prices, I would like to average down given the value I see in the future. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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VituVingiSana wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Ericsson wrote:Share price on the verge of going below 20 My eyes trained on this, feels like chirubai is letting the flood gates wide open. Sniffing the streets for the bathe,,, ppt overwhelmed,,,, Waiting for the dividend. I might reinvest it into Centum. It's about patience and one's feelings at the time. Law #1: Optimism and pessimism will always overshoot because the boundaries of both can only be known in hindsight, once they’re passed. - Morgan Housel Tomorrow will be a better day. Follow your insinticts. There is no medicine like hope, no incentive so great, and no tonic so powerful as expectation of something better tomorrow. the For a business like Centum, there will be hits and misses in the portfolio. Real estate will struggle but unlike HAFR or Cytonn, Centum seems OK. They are going to handover Awali Phase 1 (in Kilifi) to the buyers on 10th October. Longhorn took a huge hit but schools are re-opening and it has a digital and mobile product now. This is about the future for LKL which owns a lot of content. We have discussed others e.g. Amu, etc. At these prices, I would like to average down given the value I see in the future. What do you think is a good average price down, now that we agree down is the way to go @vvs. In that future I also wish to see centumn unlock it's potential and blow 2500/ on it's way up before I quit. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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muandiwambeu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Ericsson wrote:Share price on the verge of going below 20 My eyes trained on this, feels like chirubai is letting the flood gates wide open. Sniffing the streets for the bathe,,, ppt overwhelmed,,,, Waiting for the dividend. I might reinvest it into Centum. It's about patience and one's feelings at the time. Law #1: Optimism and pessimism will always overshoot because the boundaries of both can only be known in hindsight, once they’re passed. - Morgan Housel Tomorrow will be a better day. Follow your insinticts. There is no medicine like hope, no incentive so great, and no tonic so powerful as expectation of something better tomorrow. the For a business like Centum, there will be hits and misses in the portfolio. Real estate will struggle but unlike HAFR or Cytonn, Centum seems OK. They are going to handover Awali Phase 1 (in Kilifi) to the buyers on 10th October. Longhorn took a huge hit but schools are re-opening and it has a digital and mobile product now. This is about the future for LKL which owns a lot of content. We have discussed others e.g. Amu, etc. At these prices, I would like to average down given the value I see in the future. What do you think is a good average price down, now that we agree down is the way to go @vvs. In that future I also wish to see centumn unlock it's potential and blow 2500/ on it's way up before I quit. As long as the fundamentals do not change then the cheaper the better!  I have NO idea how low it can go. If I did, I would sell today and buy later. When I said "average down" I do not mean I want to do it just to lower my ABP [which I do not really know given I have bought shares over the years] but I see value at 20/- today if one is patient. 2,500/share may be a stretch any time soon unless we have hyperinflation. I will go with Management's assessment of NAV. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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muandiwambeu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Ericsson wrote:Share price on the verge of going below 20 My eyes trained on this, feels like chirubai is letting the flood gates wide open. Sniffing the streets for the bathe,,, ppt overwhelmed,,,, Waiting for the dividend. I might reinvest it into Centum. It's about patience and one's feelings at the time. Law #1: Optimism and pessimism will always overshoot because the boundaries of both can only be known in hindsight, once they’re passed. - Morgan Housel Tomorrow will be a better day. Follow your insinticts. There is no medicine like hope, no incentive so great, and no tonic so powerful as expectation of something better tomorrow. the For a business like Centum, there will be hits and misses in the portfolio. Real estate will struggle but unlike HAFR or Cytonn, Centum seems OK. They are going to handover Awali Phase 1 (in Kilifi) to the buyers on 10th October. Longhorn took a huge hit but schools are re-opening and it has a digital and mobile product now. This is about the future for LKL which owns a lot of content. We have discussed others e.g. Amu, etc. At these prices, I would like to average down given the value I see in the future. What do you think is a good average price down, now that we agree down is the way to go @vvs. In that future I also wish to see centumn unlock it's potential and blow 2500/ on it's way up before I quit. Buy at ksh.10 if it reaches there. Half year results which will be out in November will give further direction. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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Wait for sub - 9 bob(thank me later) Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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