Nobody believes that they are the dumb money until they lose a substantial amount of $$$. I also fall into the dumb money category on some occasions. I told you guys that the smart $$$ exited two weeks ago as I did. If your P&L has been bleeding especially in the last few days, you can only blame yourselves for buying other people's bags and paying their mortgages. I tried to warn you in the spirit of wazua but as always, I was labelled "prophet of doom". Now it is like a bad dream for most of you guys here and it can get worse.
The retail trader depends on pure luck for both entries and exits. Therefore, a retail trader has a 1/4 chance of making money in one trade. His odds reduce as the number of trades increase.
Probability of having a right entry is 1/2.
Probability of having a right exit is 1/2.
Probability of 1 profitable trade is 1/2*1/2 = 1/4
That simple math is why most retail traders can't win.
Consider this....most retail traders that got lucky in 2017 gave back most of that money in 2018. Luck can only take you so far. So, if you are not a professional trader, don't sell your cows or houses for crypto because odds are against you. Take care guys.
Example: @rwitre bought OXT @$0.65. Today, it is trading at @$0.37. That is a 43% draw-down. @rwitre will have to make 75% return to get back to where he started. I hope he managed the risk well because if you lose over 30% of your equity in any way, the odds of ever recovering that money are close to nil.
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching