Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
|
wukan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:wukan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Fundamental Investing primarily relies on PERFORMANCE (profits, assets, cashflow) which does not always correlate with the share price especially in the short term.
@mmandii - It seems that Elliott and Charts are about the "price" more than the underlying financial performance. Do I have this right? Charts converge all the information. If you do your fundamentals and decide to buy/sell it will reflect in the price. Your behavior will reflect in the chart. When you are unsure about the fundamentals then you will slow down in purchase or sell the securities and that will reflect in the impulse waves on the charts. So fundamentals precede the charts. In other words, fundamentals are the now, charts are history. Human behaviour is what precedes everything and you are going to see it in totality in charts which you can use to predict price direction and momentum. E.g. the candlestick charts were codified by a Japanese rice trader(Munehisa Homma) who observed the same set of behaviour in the rice market that emotions have a decisive influence on the price of rice. Fundamentals is just one of the ingredients of the market and as you might have observed in this bear run it's not the most decisive factor. Charts are not history just predictive models based on historical information. Let's pick specific stocks and do this. The reason I am not picking the "Index" is that most investors in Kenya do not buy an index. So whoever is into charting, put out some predictions (price and time) so we can see if it is for real. Let's start with those I have an interest in: Centum Unga Kenya Re I&M SCBK DTB WTK Kapchorua Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
|
mnandii wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you. So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ)  From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern. In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets] If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate.  You have made @Obiero's weekend! I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months. "Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped. Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget. This was a specific forecast for those who don't bother to research. There are several others and especially Safaricom which has quite clear Elliott wave patterns. Safaricom is already falling toward my target of 14.00. If you insist on holding the share then you might as well forget about it for some 1 to 2 years before it can find a bottom. Within what timeframe do you think it will get to 14? Let's mark the date. @mnandii - Have you figured out the timeframe in which Safaricom will get to 14? I want to mark the date  As I have stated before, with Elliott Waves we look more to the structure of the developing pattern as time prediction is not its forte. However, even the patterns can give good judgement to the estimated time for a given prediction to work out. So, I want to state that I expect sub 14.00 in safcom soon buit not beyond September 2020. NB: Kindly don't quote me on time basis. As days go by 14.00 for safaricom is becoming a mirage. Counter is trading at price the ksh.14 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
Ericsson wrote:mnandii wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you. So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ) From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern. In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets] If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate. You have made @Obiero's weekend! I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months. "Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped. Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget. This was a specific forecast for those who don't bother to research. There are several others and especially Safaricom which has quite clear Elliott wave patterns. Safaricom is already falling toward my target of 14.00. If you insist on holding the share then you might as well forget about it for some 1 to 2 years before it can find a bottom. Within what timeframe do you think it will get to 14? Let's mark the date. @mnandii - Have you figured out the timeframe in which Safaricom will get to 14? I want to mark the date As I have stated before, with Elliott Waves we look more to the structure of the developing pattern as time prediction is not its forte. However, even the patterns can give good judgement to the estimated time for a given prediction to work out. So, I want to state that I expect sub 14.00 in safcom soon buit not beyond September 2020. NB: Kindly don't quote me on time basis. As days go by 14.00 for safaricom is becoming a mirage. Counter is trading at price the ksh.14 Soon. Patience. Or Buy and lose Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
|
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mnandii wrote: SAFARICOM. Still falling. My target of sub 14.00 remains. Do fundamentalists realize that the share has been falling despite the stellar results announced recently? Why has the good results not propped up the share as we were made to believe?The only reason is that fundamentals do not determine the direction of a market. Causality is the opposite way: the market direction determines the direction of fundamentals I don't think anyone expects stellar H1 results due in November. The KES depreciation is also messing up the bulls. That said, it would be interesting to see Scom retreat back to 14 levels. The fear gauge would be at an all time high. That will be the best signal of a bottom which has so far been elusive since the bear started back in 2015. If matched by a depreciation of the shilling, bottom fishing will be easy...a re-run of 2011. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
|
mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote: NSE 20 Share Index. we have had a bottom target of between 1700-1400. The sharp nature of fall below 1800 suggests that our bottom target of 1400 is a good candidate the NSE 20s multiyear/decade support. Elliott counts will guide us to call out the exact bottom. Similar to the way we called a TOP in NSE 20 at a time it was above 6000 in 2014. When the bottom finally comes expect predictions market collapse below 1000 points. Expect lawlessness, possible internal or external war(much worse than 2007-08). Expect diseases, famine, unemployment, crime. A flattish Q2 for NSE20 while other markets rallied hard - some even made all time highs - retains its weak posture in Q3. Possible global correction won't be kind to the NSE. When is the release of Q2 banking results? The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:NSE 20 Share Index. we have had a bottom target of between 1700-1400. The sharp nature of fall below 1800 suggests that our bottom target of 1400 is a good candidate the NSE 20s multiyear/decade support. Elliott counts will guide us to call out the exact bottom. Similar to the way we called a TOP in NSE 20 at a time it was above 6000 in 2014. When the bottom finally comes expect predictions market collapse below 1000 points. Expect lawlessness, possible internal or external war(much worse than 2007-08). Expect diseases, famine, unemployment, crime. A flattish Q2 for NSE20 while other markets rallied hard - some even made all time highs - retains its weak posture in Q3. Possible global correction won't be kind to the NSE. When is the release of Q2 banking results? Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
An Elegant Theory
The Elliott Wave Pillars Series: Learn why we view the markets and society the way we doThe Elliott Wave Pillars Series gives you insight into how and why we view the markets and society the way we do. In this series, you'll gain a new understanding of what really drives the markets and social action. The compelling evidence in these videos will change how you view the markets forever. Click below to watch now: Episode 1Episode 2Episode 3Episode 4Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
|
Insurance they put Britam not Jubilee Insurance???? Ama liquidity!!! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
|
Angelica _ann wrote:Insurance they put Britam not Jubilee Insurance???? Ama liquidity!!! Yes Jubilee haina liquidity. Jubilee need to know do do a 1:10 share split. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2009 Posts: 256
|
mnandii wrote: Williamson Tea. We got the bottom right using Elliott Waves. Now rising toward our initial target of 166.12 Heading down ex-Div...
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
|
mnandii wrote:Ericsson wrote:mnandii wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you. So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ) From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern. In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets] If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate. You have made @Obiero's weekend! I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months. "Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped. Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget. This was a specific forecast for those who don't bother to research. There are several others and especially Safaricom which has quite clear Elliott wave patterns. Safaricom is already falling toward my target of 14.00. If you insist on holding the share then you might as well forget about it for some 1 to 2 years before it can find a bottom. Within what timeframe do you think it will get to 14? Let's mark the date. @mnandii - Have you figured out the timeframe in which Safaricom will get to 14? I want to mark the date As I have stated before, with Elliott Waves we look more to the structure of the developing pattern as time prediction is not its forte. However, even the patterns can give good judgement to the estimated time for a given prediction to work out. So, I want to state that I expect sub 14.00 in safcom soon buit not beyond September 2020. NB: Kindly don't quote me on time basis. As days go by 14.00 for safaricom is becoming a mirage. Counter is trading at price the ksh.14 Soon. Patience. Or Buy and lose Stuck at 28. I think clearer projection will be once they release HY results in November Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
 This has been my preferred Elliott Wave count on the NSE 20 share index for sometime. I am however relegating it to an alternate count after considering the structure that the latest developments have made apparent now. By the count NSE 20 share index has been falling in a zigzag combination WXY whereby W and X are complete. Wave Y is progressing with wave [a] and [b] of Y complete and the impulse waves (i) to (v) of [c] progressing. The Friday 28th August sharp rise would by this thinking suggest a completion of wave (i) to (iii) with the rise being part of wave (iv) then an expected wave (v) down to levels below 1700. As stated before this is now my alternate count. My preferred count and what I'll work with from now henceforth is suggestive of an ending diagonal as expounded below. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
An Ending Diagonal  ....................................  The preferred Ending Diagonal count. This count is preferred over the previous because wave 3 counts best as a zigzag combination [w] [x] [y]. Wave [w] of 3 is clearly a 5-3-5 making the first zigzag. Wave [y] of 3 is another zigzag. A 5-3-5 waves (a)(b) and (c). In fact wave (c) of [y] of 3 is a Fibonacci 61.8% of (a), a golden ratio. NB: The Fibonacci ratio is the basis of Elliott Waves. We have completed waves 1, 2 and 3 of the diagonal. The recent sharp rise should be wave 4 in progress. The structure of a diagonal suggests that wave 4 should overlap wave 1. By this token I expect the NSE 20 share index to rise to at least 2400 (2387.82 to be exact). So in the next 1 month or so the NSE 20 share index should stage a relief rally toward the 2400 target. A sharp fall below 1700 will require a re-assessment of the counts. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
|
@mnandii How are your individual stocks' predictions doing? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
The NSE 20 Share Index leads. The economy follows. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
 EQUITY BANK That (A)(B)(C) you see is an Elliott Wave regular flat pattern people. Equity has bottomed at 27.88. It's very likely to climb back above 55. Buy and hold. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
|
KCB bank has also likely bottomed at 30.00 though its chart is not as clear as Equity Bank's. I say buy and hold Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
|
|
|
Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/27/2018 Posts: 56 Location: Cambrian Dc
|
mnandii wrote: Bamburi Cement. A bottom is still elusive. Should fall further . Any update, sir? If the radiance of a thousand suns were to burst at once into the sky that would be like the splendour of the mighty one.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
|
mnandii wrote:KCB bank has also likely bottomed at 30.00 though its chart is not as clear as Equity Bank's. I say buy and hold The bus has left Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|