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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20

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mnandii		#3541 Posted : Saturday, July 18, 2020 11:25:40 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		KQ was rising nicely toward the 5.50 target before @vvs panicked and asked his government operatives to halt the share trading. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii		#3542 Posted : Saturday, July 18, 2020 11:33:13 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		VituVingiSana wrote: mnandii wrote: Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you. So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ) From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern. In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets] If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate. You have made @Obiero's weekend! I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months. "Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped. Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget. This was a specific forecast for those who don't bother to research. There are several others and especially Safaricom which has quite clear Elliott wave patterns. Safaricom is already falling toward my target of 14.00. If you insist on holding the share then you might as well forget about it for some 1 to 2 years before it can find a bottom. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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VituVingiSana		#3543 Posted : Saturday, July 18, 2020 7:23:37 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi		mnandii wrote: KQ was rising nicely toward the 5.50 target before @vvs panicked and asked his government operatives to halt the share trading. I don't have those type of connections. The only reason KQ's price was rising was the KQ bailout/buyout by GoK. Remove that and the share price will trend down if trading resumes. COVID has decimated airlines much stronger than KQ. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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VituVingiSana		#3544 Posted : Saturday, July 18, 2020 7:25:20 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi		mnandii wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: mnandii wrote: Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you. So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ) From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern. In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets] If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate. You have made @Obiero's weekend! I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months. "Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped. Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget. This was a specific forecast for those who don't bother to research. There are several others and especially Safaricom which has quite clear Elliott wave patterns. Safaricom is already falling toward my target of 14.00. If you insist on holding the share then you might as well forget about it for some 1 to 2 years before it can find a bottom. Within what timeframe do you think it will get to 14? Let's mark the date. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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Ericsson		#3545 Posted : Monday, July 20, 2020 10:34:07 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI		VituVingiSana wrote: mnandii wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: mnandii wrote: Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you. So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ) From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern. In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets] If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate. You have made @Obiero's weekend! I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months. "Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped. Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget. This was a specific forecast for those who don't bother to research. There are several others and especially Safaricom which has quite clear Elliott wave patterns. Safaricom is already falling toward my target of 14.00. If you insist on holding the share then you might as well forget about it for some 1 to 2 years before it can find a bottom. Within what timeframe do you think it will get to 14? Let's mark the date. Start from August when it goes ex dividend though 14 will be low not unless they experience a significant profit decline. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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babashuge		#3546 Posted : Wednesday, July 22, 2020 3:33:36 PM
Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/4/2019 Posts: 69 Location: Nairobi		Any waves for ABSA?... i see they're already sub 9bob
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babashuge		#3547 Posted : Wednesday, July 22, 2020 3:34:41 PM
Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/4/2019 Posts: 69 Location: Nairobi		babashuge wrote: Any waves for ABSA?... i see they're already sub 9 bob
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Monk		#3548 Posted : Wednesday, July 22, 2020 5:44:43 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2009 Posts: 256		mnandii wrote: I have been expecting a turn UP in WTK for sometime. Looks like it already started. Perfect V-shaped recovery as predicted :) I hope it comes down after going ex-div.
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wukan		#3549 Posted : Wednesday, July 22, 2020 8:34:22 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,590		mnandii wrote: We have maintained that the NSE 20 share index should fall below 1900 [targets down lie at 1700 or below]. Seems there's a small triangle formation at about 1950s before the downtrend resumes NSE 20 share index at 1886. New lows about to print as Kshs goes beyond 108.
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mnandii		#3550 Posted : Saturday, July 25, 2020 9:19:57 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		Monk wrote: mnandii wrote: I have been expecting a turn UP in WTK for sometime. Looks like it already started. Perfect V-shaped recovery as predicted :) I hope it comes down after going ex-div. After the first wave up above 166 you should expect a wave 2 retracement down before a stronger wave three UP. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii		#3551 Posted : Saturday, July 25, 2020 9:22:28 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		We made a forecast for Williamson Tea to rise. Well, it is rising, and now quite close to our target of 166 to confirm a new bullish stance. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii		#3552 Posted : Saturday, July 25, 2020 10:23:32 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		wukan wrote: mnandii wrote: We have maintained that the NSE 20 share index should fall below 1900 [targets down lie at 1700 or below]. Seems there's a small triangle formation at about 1950s before the downtrend resumes NSE 20 share index at 1886. New lows about to print as Kshs goes beyond 108. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Ericsson		#3553 Posted : Saturday, July 25, 2020 10:30:50 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI		mnandii wrote: wukan wrote: mnandii wrote: We have maintained that the NSE 20 share index should fall below 1900 [targets down lie at 1700 or below]. Seems there's a small triangle formation at about 1950s before the downtrend resumes NSE 20 share index at 1886. New lows about to print as Kshs goes beyond 108. Ksh gained ground on Thursday and friday due to reduced demand in the oil sector. Cbk also intervened by selling dollars Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana		#3554 Posted : Monday, July 27, 2020 12:12:35 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi		VituVingiSana wrote: mnandii wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: mnandii wrote: Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you. So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ) From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern. In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets] If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate. You have made @Obiero's weekend! I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months. "Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped. Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget. This was a specific forecast for those who don't bother to research. There are several others and especially Safaricom which has quite clear Elliott wave patterns. Safaricom is already falling toward my target of 14.00. If you insist on holding the share then you might as well forget about it for some 1 to 2 years before it can find a bottom. Within what timeframe do you think it will get to 14? Let's mark the date. @mnandii - Have you figured out the timeframe in which Safaricom will get to 14? I want to mark the date Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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mnandii		#3555 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2020 10:40:01 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		Wrong move @Michael Joseph. The bear market Safaricom is facing will soil your name and erase your previous commendable legacy. And this after coming from KQ which is insolvent! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Ericsson		#3556 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2020 10:45:20 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI		mnandii wrote: Wrong move @Michael Joseph. The bear market Safaricom is facing will soil your name and erase your previous commendable legacy. And this after coming from KQ which is insolvent! How sure are you he will remain the chairman of KQ post nationalization. Chairman of Safaricom that was in the plan and was mentioned during the transition after passing on of Bob Collymore. Safaricom is still growing and there are strategic directions he wants to shepherd it. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson		#3557 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2020 10:46:54 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI		VituVingiSana wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: mnandii wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: mnandii wrote: Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you. So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ) From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern. In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets] If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate. You have made @Obiero's weekend! I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months. "Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped. Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget. This was a specific forecast for those who don't bother to research. There are several others and especially Safaricom which has quite clear Elliott wave patterns. Safaricom is already falling toward my target of 14.00. If you insist on holding the share then you might as well forget about it for some 1 to 2 years before it can find a bottom. Within what timeframe do you think it will get to 14? Let's mark the date. @mnandii - Have you figured out the timeframe in which Safaricom will get to 14? I want to mark the date @vvs if share price reaches 20 jump in. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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mnandii		#3558 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2020 10:49:34 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		VituVingiSana wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: mnandii wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: mnandii wrote: Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you. So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ) From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern. In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets] If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate. You have made @Obiero's weekend! I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months. "Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped. Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget. This was a specific forecast for those who don't bother to research. There are several others and especially Safaricom which has quite clear Elliott wave patterns. Safaricom is already falling toward my target of 14.00. If you insist on holding the share then you might as well forget about it for some 1 to 2 years before it can find a bottom. Within what timeframe do you think it will get to 14? Let's mark the date. @mnandii - Have you figured out the timeframe in which Safaricom will get to 14? I want to mark the date As I have stated before, with Elliott Waves we look more to the structure of the developing pattern as time prediction is not its forte. However, even the patterns can give good judgement to the estimated time for a given prediction to work out. So, I want to state that I expect sub 14.00 in safcom soon buit not beyond September 2020. NB: Kindly don't quote me on time basis. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii		#3559 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2020 10:53:09 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		mnandii wrote: Wrong move @Michael Joseph. The bear market Safaricom is facing will soil your name and erase your previous commendable legacy. And this after coming from KQ which is insolvent! Investors should also remember that the CEO of Safaricom currently is a SHORT guy. The bear market chose the right candidate to steer Safaricom through the turbulence ahead. Short the stock! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii		#3560 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2020 10:56:01 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		Ericsson wrote: @vvs if share price reaches 20 jump in. Will be too early Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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