mnandii wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:mnandii wrote:
Just to make a point once again. The so quoted hope-filled rally is complete at 27,000. The next major move is DOWN. It will be sharp. It will be painful. It will catch you off-guard. Yet Elliott is shouting a warning right now!
Trump is saying it can only continue with the upward journey!!!!
Trump is proved wrong. The venerable FED is proved wrong. Fundamentals as popularly practised is proved wrong.
Only Elliott Waves can anticipate these turns.
Expect further downside to the DJIA.
@mnandii.One day does not make a market.Recall what I stated in an earlier post as below
Quote:
"@mnandii.Yes I agree with you that a major downturn in the market is inevitable.This massive meltup is grossly over-extended and extremely frothy.This rally is fake from Fed money printing but I take advantage of all that massive Fed money pump and go long even though I know its fake and a joke.Markets are mis-pricing the risk of a second covid-19 wave and the bankruptcy crisis thats about to hit especially small businesses that didnt benefit from the Fed money printing bailouts.I definitely cannot know when the 2 risks mentioned above will hit the market.One shouldnt forget that the market mispriced the covid-19 risk in late January and early February.Once the Wuhan lockdown was effected on January 23rd,the market still kept going up as Fed repo money printing kept the game going.US investors assumed that Covid-19 is largely a Chinese problem and US had just a handful of cases and the assumption is that it was an over-glorified flu was rampant.I was generally but cautiously long the market until when reality of Covid-19 finally hit the market on February 19th and the sharp downturn and fastest collapse of the S&P 500 in history manifested from late February to late March when I went massively short.
As I said I agree with the downturn that you are predicting maybe coming but the timing of it is impossible.Its very feasible that the Dow and S&P 500 may also hit all time highs now that the NASDAQ did and its also possible the market may crash again in the next few days.Nobody has the exact prognosis of the market and either of these scenarios could happen.Thus for me I review the market on a day to day basis and trade each day on its own.I can be long and short the same stock on the same day not caring about overall market direction and just scalp short term trends.Once that sharp downturn manifests I will be ready to short the market once more."
Thus for me I simply dont care about market direction.Yes the market is exceptionally overbought as I have stated numerous times and should fall.In fact for me fair value for the Dow is maximum 10,000 and this run up is just a ridiculous bubble but dont count out the Fed out just yet.Its just one trading day and if this persists for the next few days/weeks the Fed will intervene aggressively to pump up the market once more just like they did in late March.
It seems as I said maybe the market is finally waking up to the prospect of a second covid-19 wave.Lets see how the market behaves in the next few days.One simply cannot tell market action for the future especially this volatile market.Who knows market may rebound tomorrow or maybe next week.
Whether the market tanks or rebounds is irrelevant to me.As I have said before I assess the market each day on its merits and demerits.Today was a massive bear day and I went massively short and made serious $$$$
.If tomorrow the market rebounds I will be long the market.If the market is bearish at market open I will be short and if it rebounds later in the day I will be long.I have actually been twice long and twice short one stock on the same day 2 weeks ago.Short term trends is what matters to me.
Dont be too quick to predict the end of the bull run.Nobody knows the prognosis of the market.Dow could hit 20,000 and below or could even hit 30,000.Personally I want the market to tank and achieve fair value as this bubble is ridiculous but if the Fed wants to pump the markets once more then I will just ride the uptrend again and go long.That's why I never make predictions that e.g. the Dow will hit 27,000 or 20,000 by a certain date.I just trade the market conditions I see on a day to day basis.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money