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Kenya Economy Watch
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ARAPCHARLEE
#2511 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2020 7:45:17 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 4/28/2019
Posts: 88
Location: Talai
Thanks Wazuans.. knowing and Learning alot.
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Horton
#2512 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2020 10:05:29 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
heri wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Amount of loans banks have restructured so far;
Equity bank ksh.92b
KCB ksh.110bn
NCBA ksh.35bn
CO-OP bank sh.15.3bn
ABSA ksh.8.3bn
Standard chartered ksh.8bn
DTB Ksh.40.7bn

That gives a total of 300 billion in two months. Most definitely the figure will continue rising as the economic toll becomes apparent. Total banking NPLs by June 2019 was around 350 billion constituting about 12.4% of the loan book. Assuming there is little to no write backs from these loans come July, that would put total sector NPLs at upwards of 650 billion or approximately 22% of the loan book(asssuming little to insignificant new loans were made in the intervening period).

Before the pandemic hit my estimate was a peak of 18-20% of the loan book purely on the basis of economic malaise. That will surely be surpassed and then some. All time high NPLs was 33% in back in 2001. Will this level be retested? Very probable if you factor in a depreciating currency and rising interest rates. That would come in at a ballpark figure of 1 trillion worth of NPLs.



@lochaz What does this mean ? and then other sectors like saccos will also be hit


KCB figure revised upwards to 115.1bn


Wapi link?
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ARAPCHARLEE
#2513 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2020 12:08:39 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 4/28/2019
Posts: 88
Location: Talai
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
heri wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Amount of loans banks have restructured so far;
Equity bank ksh.92b
KCB ksh.110bn
NCBA ksh.35bn
CO-OP bank sh.15.3bn
ABSA ksh.8.3bn
Standard chartered ksh.8bn
DTB Ksh.40.7bn

That gives a total of 300 billion in two months. Most definitely the figure will continue rising as the economic toll becomes apparent. Total banking NPLs by June 2019 was around 350 billion constituting about 12.4% of the loan book. Assuming there is little to no write backs from these loans come July, that would put total sector NPLs at upwards of 650 billion or approximately 22% of the loan book(asssuming little to insignificant new loans were made in the intervening period).

Before the pandemic hit my estimate was a peak of 18-20% of the loan book purely on the basis of economic malaise. That will surely be surpassed and then some. All time high NPLs was 33% in back in 2001. Will this level be retested? Very probable if you factor in a depreciating currency and rising interest rates. That would come in at a ballpark figure of 1 trillion worth of NPLs.



@lochaz What does this mean ? and then other sectors like saccos will also be hit


KCB figure revised upwards to 115.1bn


Wapi link?


I guess link inacome... I heard the same figure during 22.05.2020, 9 pm KBC BIZ NEWS.
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, May 23, 2020 12:09 AM | Reason: Not specified
obiero
#2514 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2020 6:13:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,217
Location: nairobi
ARAPCHARLEE wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
heri wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Amount of loans banks have restructured so far;
Equity bank ksh.92b
KCB ksh.110bn
NCBA ksh.35bn
CO-OP bank sh.15.3bn
ABSA ksh.8.3bn
Standard chartered ksh.8bn
DTB Ksh.40.7bn

That gives a total of 300 billion in two months. Most definitely the figure will continue rising as the economic toll becomes apparent. Total banking NPLs by June 2019 was around 350 billion constituting about 12.4% of the loan book. Assuming there is little to no write backs from these loans come July, that would put total sector NPLs at upwards of 650 billion or approximately 22% of the loan book(asssuming little to insignificant new loans were made in the intervening period).

Before the pandemic hit my estimate was a peak of 18-20% of the loan book purely on the basis of economic malaise. That will surely be surpassed and then some. All time high NPLs was 33% in back in 2001. Will this level be retested? Very probable if you factor in a depreciating currency and rising interest rates. That would come in at a ballpark figure of 1 trillion worth of NPLs.



@lochaz What does this mean ? and then other sectors like saccos will also be hit


KCB figure revised upwards to 115.1bn


Wapi link?


I guess link inacome... I heard the same figure during 22.05.2020, 9 pm KBC BIZ NEWS.

@Ericsson I need to ask you something, if possible, please email me info@winda.co.ke

KQ ABP 4.26
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Ericsson
#2515 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2020 10:15:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
ARAPCHARLEE wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
heri wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Amount of loans banks have restructured so far;
Equity bank ksh.92b
KCB ksh.110bn
NCBA ksh.35bn
CO-OP bank sh.15.3bn
ABSA ksh.8.3bn
Standard chartered ksh.8bn
DTB Ksh.40.7bn

That gives a total of 300 billion in two months. Most definitely the figure will continue rising as the economic toll becomes apparent. Total banking NPLs by June 2019 was around 350 billion constituting about 12.4% of the loan book. Assuming there is little to no write backs from these loans come July, that would put total sector NPLs at upwards of 650 billion or approximately 22% of the loan book(asssuming little to insignificant new loans were made in the intervening period).

Before the pandemic hit my estimate was a peak of 18-20% of the loan book purely on the basis of economic malaise. That will surely be surpassed and then some. All time high NPLs was 33% in back in 2001. Will this level be retested? Very probable if you factor in a depreciating currency and rising interest rates. That would come in at a ballpark figure of 1 trillion worth of NPLs.



@lochaz What does this mean ? and then other sectors like saccos will also be hit


KCB figure revised upwards to 115.1bn


Wapi link?


I guess link inacome... I heard the same figure during 22.05.2020, 9 pm KBC BIZ NEWS.


Link as below;

https://twitter.com/KCBG...tus/1263752698421264390
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#2516 Posted : Sunday, May 24, 2020 7:14:45 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Metch wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
President Uhuru appoints 8 experts to Economic Recovery Council chaired by Hon Raila Odinga (former prime minister and council chairman), Hon Billow Kerrow (former Senator of Mandera County), Dr. Sabdiyo Dibo Bushina (an agricultural expert), Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi (former Minister of Trade and currently UNCTAD Secretary-General), Dr. Martin Odour Otieno (former Managing Director of KCB Bank Group), Eddie Njoroge (former Managing Director of KENGEN), Issac Ruto (former Bomet Governor) and Prof. Terry Rhyan (Treasury Advisor).

Another dream team d'oh!
History repeating itself. Outcomes too


If there is no will to turnaround KQ and other government parastatals will there be a will to turnaround the economy?
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#2517 Posted : Sunday, May 24, 2020 11:06:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
ARAPCHARLEE wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
heri wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Amount of loans banks have restructured so far;
Equity bank ksh.92b
KCB ksh.110bn
NCBA ksh.35bn
CO-OP bank sh.15.3bn
ABSA ksh.8.3bn
Standard chartered ksh.8bn
DTB Ksh.40.7bn

That gives a total of 300 billion in two months. Most definitely the figure will continue rising as the economic toll becomes apparent. Total banking NPLs by June 2019 was around 350 billion constituting about 12.4% of the loan book. Assuming there is little to no write backs from these loans come July, that would put total sector NPLs at upwards of 650 billion or approximately 22% of the loan book(asssuming little to insignificant new loans were made in the intervening period).

Before the pandemic hit my estimate was a peak of 18-20% of the loan book purely on the basis of economic malaise. That will surely be surpassed and then some. All time high NPLs was 33% in back in 2001. Will this level be retested? Very probable if you factor in a depreciating currency and rising interest rates. That would come in at a ballpark figure of 1 trillion worth of NPLs.



@lochaz What does this mean ? and then other sectors like saccos will also be hit


KCB figure revised upwards to 115.1bn


Wapi link?


I guess link inacome... I heard the same figure during 22.05.2020, 9 pm KBC BIZ NEWS.


ABSA kenya figures have clocked ksh.16bn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#2518 Posted : Monday, May 25, 2020 7:13:58 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
https://www.kenyans.co.k...-chinese-firm-over-fraud
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#2519 Posted : Wednesday, May 27, 2020 9:27:30 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Ericsson wrote:
Amount of loans banks have restructured so far;
Equity bank ksh.92b
KCB ksh.115.1bn
NCBA ksh.35bn
CO-OP bank sh.15.3bn
ABSA ksh.28.5bn
Standard chartered ksh.8bn
DTB Ksh.40.7bn


ABSA kenya restructured 30,000 loan accounts
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#2520 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2020 8:46:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Sentiment hotel and lodges to shut down all 7 properties and layoff 700.

East African Portland cement to layoff more employees.

Fairmont group shuts down and fires all employees
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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