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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Latest: Virus mutating to a more dangerous form Children contacting the virus are getting symptoms that look like the Kawasaki disease. (cordial vascular collapse) Where the heart is attacked. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/10/2010 Posts: 2,264
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masukuma wrote:
The disease was brought into that state 6 weeks ago - no measures, a president with a mindset that hii ni homa. The disease is taking whoever it can - leaving whomever it is leaving behind. Herd immunity requires 60%+ to be acquired for this type of disease. 60% of a population of 50,000,000 people is 30,000,000. So the drum will stop beating when we get to 30,000,000 infections. The Kenyan mortality rate from the group that we have caught is 4.4%. If the same rate was to apply uniformly it is expected that we shall have 1.3M deaths. If the rate is half of that - 700,000 deaths. 1% deaths is 300,000. That’s the sacrifice you need to make to appease the gods that confer herd immunity
Dear brother. I hope you dont find it offensive when I scoff at this things you are telling us here. I will even doubt your level of reasoning. Tuskizane. You cannot base your calculations on the "Kenyan GOV" confirmed cases. You can only do such a calculation when the infection has been wiped out , a cure has been found , a working vaccine has been discovered. or in a more practical way if Kenyan testing capabilities could rival the U.S capabilities. If Kenya had the capability of making mass tests like in the U.S. 100000 tests in a single day. My simple estimate tells me that Nairobi and mombasa alone would account to more than 2000 positive cases daily. Simple reasoning tells me that an area like isilii the ratio of the infected and uninfected persons is 1:50 . This is based on the small number of people tested and the final outcome. This means by now the number of the infected could be about 80k. Now do your culculations based on 80k infected and 20 deaths. In my simple estimate is that the death rate here is 0.0000025%. If you relate that with your 30million infections we only get about 7500 deaths to achieve herd immunity. This means nduthi accidents here are also a pandemic. Nani atapinga hio. And give your reasons Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/3/2008 Posts: 4,057 Location: Gwitu
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mpobiz wrote:masukuma wrote:
The disease was brought into that state 6 weeks ago - no measures, a president with a mindset that hii ni homa. The disease is taking whoever it can - leaving whomever it is leaving behind. Herd immunity requires 60%+ to be acquired for this type of disease. 60% of a population of 50,000,000 people is 30,000,000. So the drum will stop beating when we get to 30,000,000 infections. The Kenyan mortality rate from the group that we have caught is 4.4%. If the same rate was to apply uniformly it is expected that we shall have 1.3M deaths. If the rate is half of that - 700,000 deaths. 1% deaths is 300,000. That’s the sacrifice you need to make to appease the gods that confer herd immunity
Dear brother. I hope you dont find it offensive when I scoff at this things you are telling us here. I will even doubt your level of reasoning. Tuskizane. You cannot base your calculations on the "Kenyan GOV" confirmed cases. You can only do such a calculation when the infection has been wiped out , a cure has been found , a working vaccine has been discovered. or in a more practical way if Kenyan testing capabilities could rival the U.S capabilities. If Kenya had the capability of making mass tests like in the U.S. 100000 tests in a single day. My simple estimate tells me that Nairobi and mombasa alone would account to more than 2000 positive cases daily. Simple reasoning tells me that an area like isilii the ratio of the infected and uninfected persons is 1:50 . This is based on the small number of people tested and the final outcome. This means by now the number of the infected could be about 80k. Now do your culculations based on 80k infected and 20 deaths. In my simple estimate is that the death rate here is 0.0000025%. If you relate that with your 30million infections we only get about 7500 deaths to achieve herd immunity. This means nduthi accidents here are also a pandemic. Nani atapinga hio. And give your reasons One key assumption, which is certainly wrong is that the infections are uniformly spread in the population. Secondly, our tests are still based on tracing which means we are testing persons more likely to have virus than in say US or Germany where they are testing randomly. Truth forever on the scaffold
Wrong forever on the throne
(James Russell Rowell)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/4/2006 Posts: 13,821 Location: Nairobi
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mpobiz wrote:masukuma wrote:
The disease was brought into that state 6 weeks ago - no measures, a president with a mindset that hii ni homa. The disease is taking whoever it can - leaving whomever it is leaving behind. Herd immunity requires 60%+ to be acquired for this type of disease. 60% of a population of 50,000,000 people is 30,000,000. So the drum will stop beating when we get to 30,000,000 infections. The Kenyan mortality rate from the group that we have caught is 4.4%. If the same rate was to apply uniformly it is expected that we shall have 1.3M deaths. If the rate is half of that - 700,000 deaths. 1% deaths is 300,000. That’s the sacrifice you need to make to appease the gods that confer herd immunity
Dear brother. I hope you dont find it offensive when I scoff at this things you are telling us here. I will even doubt your level of reasoning. Tuskizane. You cannot base your calculations on the "Kenyan GOV" confirmed cases. You can only do such a calculation when the infection has been wiped out , a cure has been found , a working vaccine has been discovered. or in a more practical way if Kenyan testing capabilities could rival the U.S capabilities. If Kenya had the capability of making mass tests like in the U.S. 100000 tests in a single day. My simple estimate tells me that Nairobi and mombasa alone would account to more than 2000 positive cases daily. Simple reasoning tells me that an area like isilii the ratio of the infected and uninfected persons is 1:50 . This is based on the small number of people tested and the final outcome. This means by now the number of the infected could be about 80k. Now do your culculations based on 80k infected and 20 deaths. In my simple estimate is that the death rate here is 0.0000025%. If you relate that with your 30million infections we only get about 7500 deaths to achieve herd immunity. This means nduthi accidents here are also a pandemic. Nani atapinga hio. And give your reasons Two issues with your reasoning 1) Dodgy Understanding of Spreading
The way you derive your 80,000 is dodgy... I asked you in previous examples why when people from contact tracing are tested - people with a KNOWN exposure to a TESTED AND KNOWN TO BE POSITIVE CASE - it's about 2%? GOK has not Sampled the 27,433 across the country so as to end up with a 2% hit rate - They are tracing from KNOWN CONTACT. Your expectation that the hit rate of a targetted tracing totally misunderstands how diseases (unlike information or ideas) spread. Diseases are contact based - information and ideas are broadcasted. 2: Dodgy application of assumptionsA ratio is based on 2 things - a numerator and a denominator. You picked the Numerator from the dodgy mathematics highlighted above BUT you insist on only picking the denominator (~20 deaths) from Government. you mistrust GOK information when it suits your assertions but trust it when it does. It's the same thing with Nigeria - those deaths being reported MUST be tested individually to be attributed to Covid (regardless to the fact that they spiked during a pandemic). All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/4/2006 Posts: 13,821 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:Latest:
Virus mutating to a more dangerous form
Children contacting the virus are getting symptoms that look like the Kawasaki disease. (cordial vascular collapse) Where the heart is attacked.
This is the stupidity with Herd Immunity - Herd Immunity assumes no long term effects of the current strains and also fails to understand the fact that the longer a virus stays in our midst... the more the likelihood it will mutate. People are always getting flu vaccines every year because it mutates so much and the strains from this year are substantially different from what people experienced last year. the antibodies from last year are not effective against newly spun out strains. The longer Covid stays in humans and is replicating - the more likely that the mutations spin out something that nullifies the effects of Herd Immunity (acquired by sacrificing a substantial number of people). The ONLY WAY IS TO CRUSH THIS THING. The current strains seem to spare the young and strong... who tells you that the newly spun out mutations will spare them? it's a ridiculous proposition. All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/10/2010 Posts: 2,264
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masukuma wrote:mpobiz wrote:masukuma wrote:
The disease was brought into that state 6 weeks ago - no measures, a president with a mindset that hii ni homa. The disease is taking whoever it can - leaving whomever it is leaving behind. Herd immunity requires 60%+ to be acquired for this type of disease. 60% of a population of 50,000,000 people is 30,000,000. So the drum will stop beating when we get to 30,000,000 infections. The Kenyan mortality rate from the group that we have caught is 4.4%. If the same rate was to apply uniformly it is expected that we shall have 1.3M deaths. If the rate is half of that - 700,000 deaths. 1% deaths is 300,000. That’s the sacrifice you need to make to appease the gods that confer herd immunity
Dear brother. I hope you dont find it offensive when I scoff at this things you are telling us here. I will even doubt your level of reasoning. Tuskizane. You cannot base your calculations on the "Kenyan GOV" confirmed cases. You can only do such a calculation when the infection has been wiped out , a cure has been found , a working vaccine has been discovered. or in a more practical way if Kenyan testing capabilities could rival the U.S capabilities. If Kenya had the capability of making mass tests like in the U.S. 100000 tests in a single day. My simple estimate tells me that Nairobi and mombasa alone would account to more than 2000 positive cases daily. Simple reasoning tells me that an area like isilii the ratio of the infected and uninfected persons is 1:50 . This is based on the small number of people tested and the final outcome. This means by now the number of the infected could be about 80k. Now do your culculations based on 80k infected and 20 deaths. In my simple estimate is that the death rate here is 0.0000025%. If you relate that with your 30million infections we only get about 7500 deaths to achieve herd immunity. This means nduthi accidents here are also a pandemic. Nani atapinga hio. And give your reasons Two issues with your reasoning 1) Dodgy Understanding of Spreading
The way you derive your 80,000 is dodgy... I asked you in previous examples why when people from contact tracing are tested - people with a KNOWN exposure to a TESTED AND KNOWN TO BE POSITIVE CASE - it's about 2%? GOK has not Sampled the 27,433 across the country so as to end up with a 2% hit rate - They are tracing from KNOWN CONTACT. Your expectation that the hit rate of a targetted tracing totally misunderstands how diseases (unlike information or ideas) spread. Diseases are contact based - information and ideas are broadcasted. 2: Dodgy application of assumptionsA ratio is based on 2 things - a numerator and a denominator. You picked the Numerator from the dodgy mathematics highlighted above BUT you insist on only picking the denominator (~20 deaths) from Government. you mistrust GOK information when it suits your assertions but trust it when it does. It's the same thing with Nigeria - those deaths being reported MUST be tested individually to be attributed to Covid (regardless to the fact that they spiked during a pandemic). Testing of people from contact tracing is just an excuse for our very very very low testing capabilities. In the western world there are massive testing sites all over the country that allow everybody to have access to be tested. Also the government has not stigmatized positive cases by throwing them into quarantine. You are just asked to stay home untill the situation worsens. So in General everbody is happy to be tested. Here even the few testing sites that we have are Generally empty. This explains my second answer. The number of the infected is unknown that's why it's based on assumptions and estimates. The sick and the dead (denominator) are known. Or you want to tell us the government is hiding the actual number of the dead? Or the infected are running to hide and die in the Forrests. The desease has already spread. The govament should go and wait for the sick in hospitals and stop tomenting the General population. .. @kaka my statement is clear. I have not said the infection is evenly spread. The bulk of the infected is in two towns as you can see. Nairobi and mombasa. But the 80k number is for the whole county. they have started testing the truck drivers. That will give you a small picture of how the desease has spread across the country. Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/21/2009 Posts: 602
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murchr wrote:Latest:
Virus mutating to a more dangerous form Here is another paper (peer reviewed) showing a mutation (deletion) that weakens the virus considerably"One of the reasons why this mutation is of interest is because it mirrors a large deletion that arose in the 2003 SARS outbreak," said Lim, an assistant professor at ASU's Biodesign Institute. During the middle and late phases of the SARS epidemic, SARS-CoV accumulated mutations that attenuated the virus. Scientists believe that a weakened virus that causes less severe disease may have a selective advantage if it is able to spread efficiently through populations by people who are infected unknowingly.The science is moving fast and furious. If people were not dying, this would be so much fun.
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/21/2009 Posts: 602
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masukuma wrote:This is the stupidity with Herd Immunity -
Herd Immunity assumes no long term effects of the current strains and also fails to understand the fact that the longer a virus stays in our midst... the more the likelihood it will mutate. People are always getting flu vaccines every year because it mutates so much and the strains from this year are substantially different from what people experienced last year. the antibodies from last year are not effective against newly spun out strains. The longer Covid stays in humans and is replicating - the more likely that the mutations spin out something that nullifies the effects of Herd Immunity (acquired by sacrificing a substantial number of people). The ONLY WAY IS TO CRUSH THIS THING. IKR! I saw someone on twitter asking people to choose a “death number” i.e the number of deaths that they would accept in exchange for jobs-A physician no less!  
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/3/2008 Posts: 4,057 Location: Gwitu
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Eyes on West Africa. Guys in Yaounde are behaving like Corona never existed yet the country has almost 2000 cases. If the body count doesn't rise then we can conclude that this shit is not for Africans Truth forever on the scaffold
Wrong forever on the throne
(James Russell Rowell)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/4/2006 Posts: 13,821 Location: Nairobi
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Dahatre wrote:murchr wrote:Latest:
Virus mutating to a more dangerous form Here is another paper (peer reviewed) showing a mutation (deletion) that weakens the virus considerably"One of the reasons why this mutation is of interest is because it mirrors a large deletion that arose in the 2003 SARS outbreak," said Lim, an assistant professor at ASU's Biodesign Institute. During the middle and late phases of the SARS epidemic, SARS-CoV accumulated mutations that attenuated the virus. Scientists believe that a weakened virus that causes less severe disease may have a selective advantage if it is able to spread efficiently through populations by people who are infected unknowingly.The science is moving fast and furious. If people were not dying, this would be so much fun. Mutations are random and can end up in one of 3 possible stathes 1) some are advantageous to the virus and disadvantageous to the host (becomes more infections and/or lethal) 2) can be neutral - no effect on the virus or the host 3) can be detrimental for the virus and consequently advantageous for the host. We have billions if not trillions of viruses replicating now within bodies of people - these 3 mutations are taking place to some extent. What will the outcome be? I don't know - that's why we need to crush it. All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/4/2006 Posts: 13,821 Location: Nairobi
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mpobiz wrote:masukuma wrote:mpobiz wrote:masukuma wrote:
The disease was brought into that state 6 weeks ago - no measures, a president with a mindset that hii ni homa. The disease is taking whoever it can - leaving whomever it is leaving behind. Herd immunity requires 60%+ to be acquired for this type of disease. 60% of a population of 50,000,000 people is 30,000,000. So the drum will stop beating when we get to 30,000,000 infections. The Kenyan mortality rate from the group that we have caught is 4.4%. If the same rate was to apply uniformly it is expected that we shall have 1.3M deaths. If the rate is half of that - 700,000 deaths. 1% deaths is 300,000. That’s the sacrifice you need to make to appease the gods that confer herd immunity
Dear brother. I hope you dont find it offensive when I scoff at this things you are telling us here. I will even doubt your level of reasoning. Tuskizane. You cannot base your calculations on the "Kenyan GOV" confirmed cases. You can only do such a calculation when the infection has been wiped out , a cure has been found , a working vaccine has been discovered. or in a more practical way if Kenyan testing capabilities could rival the U.S capabilities. If Kenya had the capability of making mass tests like in the U.S. 100000 tests in a single day. My simple estimate tells me that Nairobi and mombasa alone would account to more than 2000 positive cases daily. Simple reasoning tells me that an area like isilii the ratio of the infected and uninfected persons is 1:50 . This is based on the small number of people tested and the final outcome. This means by now the number of the infected could be about 80k. Now do your culculations based on 80k infected and 20 deaths. In my simple estimate is that the death rate here is 0.0000025%. If you relate that with your 30million infections we only get about 7500 deaths to achieve herd immunity. This means nduthi accidents here are also a pandemic. Nani atapinga hio. And give your reasons Two issues with your reasoning 1) Dodgy Understanding of Spreading
The way you derive your 80,000 is dodgy... I asked you in previous examples why when people from contact tracing are tested - people with a KNOWN exposure to a TESTED AND KNOWN TO BE POSITIVE CASE - it's about 2%? GOK has not Sampled the 27,433 across the country so as to end up with a 2% hit rate - They are tracing from KNOWN CONTACT. Your expectation that the hit rate of a targetted tracing totally misunderstands how diseases (unlike information or ideas) spread. Diseases are contact based - information and ideas are broadcasted. 2: Dodgy application of assumptionsA ratio is based on 2 things - a numerator and a denominator. You picked the Numerator from the dodgy mathematics highlighted above BUT you insist on only picking the denominator (~20 deaths) from Government. you mistrust GOK information when it suits your assertions but trust it when it does. It's the same thing with Nigeria - those deaths being reported MUST be tested individually to be attributed to Covid (regardless to the fact that they spiked during a pandemic). Testing of people from contact tracing is just an excuse for our very very very low testing capabilities. In the western world there are massive testing sites all over the country that allow everybody to have access to be tested. Also the government has not stigmatized positive cases by throwing them into quarantine. You are just asked to stay home untill the situation worsens. So in General everbody is happy to be tested. Here even the few testing sites that we have are Generally empty. This explains my second answer. The number of the infected is unknown that's why it's based on assumptions and estimates. The sick and the dead (denominator) are known. Or you want to tell us the government is hiding the actual number of the dead? Or the infected are running to hide and die in the Forrests. The desease has already spread. The govament should go and wait for the sick in hospitals and stop tomenting the General population. .. @kaka my statement is clear. I have not said the infection is evenly spread. The bulk of the infected is in two towns as you can see. Nairobi and mombasa. But the 80k number is for the whole county. they have started testing the truck drivers. That will give you a small picture of how the desease has spread across the country. First, your explanation does not address the holes I poked in the methodology you used to come up with the numerator. The fact is there is testing albeit small, this testing is extremely focused on individuals KNOWN to have been exposed and is having very low hit rates. We know there are tests going on with the drivers. On 4th of May Uganda tested 2,061 samples at the border points and got 6 drivers +ve (0.29%). We have target tested 27,433 and we ended up with 582 positive (2.1%) but somehow your very high spread numbers are never shown in these highly targeted testings. Secondly, the government has attributed 26 deaths to Covid but these are not the only deaths to have occured in Kenya. My question is - why didn't you create a methodology to attribute these non-Covid deaths to Covid as you have rubbished the Government's number of cases and created yours? Create your number of deaths away from the government figures. All those deaths attributed to witchcraft, spells, curses and evil eyes attribute them to covid. All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/10/2015 Posts: 961 Location: Kenya
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It must be painful when the school demands that you pay full fees (>1m) while the kid is at home due to corona with the school claiming learning is going on just because the school emailed an assignment or some zoom link to the kid. The school owner has told parents to pay up or leave. Proverbs 13:11 Dishonest money dwindles away, but whoever gathers money little by little makes it grow.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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sqft wrote:It must be painful when the school demands that you pay full fees (>1m) while the kid is at home due to corona with the school claiming learning is going on just because the school emailed an assignment or some zoom link to the kid. The school owner has told parents to pay up or leave.
Let them pay, that is what class is all about. Such behavior are reserved for Kibra and Eastlands.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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WallStreet Journal wrote:The new coronavirus has been found in the semen of infected individuals, according to Chinese researchers, raising the prospect that the virus could be sexually transmitted.
The study, other researchers warn, also raises many questions. It doesn’t explain how much viral load was present in the sperm; nor did it examine whether the virus can be transmitted through sexual activity. The study, conducted at China’s Shangqiu Municipal Hospital, was described in a research letter published Thursday by the JAMA Network of medical...
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/4/2006 Posts: 13,821 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/3/2008 Posts: 4,057 Location: Gwitu
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Minorities are dying in higher numbers in UK. What's puzzling is that the trend has not been replicated in India and Africa. I am starting to think that the BCG story had some weight. Truth forever on the scaffold
Wrong forever on the throne
(James Russell Rowell)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/10/2010 Posts: 2,264
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Let me start from your previous maswali Mine are just estimates. You are supposed to poke as many holes as you can. But I don't know why its closer to the truth than your so called scientific culculations based on minuscule data. The term target testing, as beautiful as the words are is just another name of we can't do mass testing. Your close to 30k tests in 2 months is what the U.K does in a few hours. And they have tested more than 1m persons. One Wazuan asked a very simple question a few weeks ago. China Italy Spain Germany France UK All this nation's have seen disaster. But it wasn't untill this disaster reached U.S that it become a black man problem. Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,588
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So turns out that in New York 66% of those hospitalized were the ones who stayed at home. Homeless people were like 2% of the hospitalizations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZ7Bv41T0lw
Anyone watched 'World War Z'? There is this part where Gerry Lane(Brad Pitt) says that "I used to work in danger zones and people who moved survived and those who didn't...movement is life...you have a better chance if you come with us" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JNw8PP5qgo
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/4/2006 Posts: 13,821 Location: Nairobi
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mpobiz wrote:Let me start from your previous maswali Mine are just estimates. You are supposed to poke as many holes as you can. But I don't know why its closer to the truth than your so called scientific culculations based on minuscule data. The term target testing, as beautiful as the words are is just another name of we can't do mass testing. Your close to 30k tests in 2 months is what the U.K does in a few hours. And they have tested more than 1m persons. One Wazuan asked a very simple question a few weeks ago. China Italy Spain Germany France UK All this nation's have seen disaster. But it wasn't untill this disaster reached U.S that it become a black man problem. Because of ignorance and ignoring facts that's why you need to be reminded that "IT'S A BLACK MAN'S PROBLEM TOO!". There is nothing special in your biology that makes you immune to this thing - so tuwache ujuaji! All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/10/2010 Posts: 2,264
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masukuma wrote:mpobiz wrote:Let me start from your previous maswali Mine are just estimates. You are supposed to poke as many holes as you can. But I don't know why its closer to the truth than your so called scientific culculations based on minuscule data. The term target testing, as beautiful as the words are is just another name of we can't do mass testing. Your close to 30k tests in 2 months is what the U.K does in a few hours. And they have tested more than 1m persons. One Wazuan asked a very simple question a few weeks ago. China Italy Spain Germany France UK All this nation's have seen disaster. But it wasn't untill this disaster reached U.S that it become a black man problem. Because of ignorance and ignoring facts that's why you need to be reminded that "IT'S A BLACK MAN'S PROBLEM TOO!". There is nothing special in your biology that makes you immune to this thing - so tuwache ujuaji! Wewe kweli uko na matatizo. What facts are you talking about? And don't you think the black man is intelligent enough to know when he has a problem? I hope you understand that when we talk of immunity we actually mean that we are not adversely affected.(mild or no symptoms) . Your government has confirmed that. How did they come up with that idea with only 20k tests in 2 months? They are doing the same calculations I am doing. Go to isilii today and tell me if there is a true lockdown. Mombasa oldtown everybody left. The police are doing G4S services there. Listen. https://youtu.be/8NCwR5CdB9MPolitics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
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