We agree about the UNKNOWN - the 8 that were announced to day were part of the UNKNOWN until today. the figure announced tomorrow is part of the UNKNOWN of today. That's clear.
Where we disagree is on the answers to the following cases
1) HOW LONG HAVE THE UNKNOWNS BEEN AROUND?
I see people saying 100+ days. I disagree because of the behavoir of the disease I illustrated (R0=3) in an environment without social distancing. We would have had massive infections by now and these infections would have strayed into the GROUP 2 testing we are doing. We are only getting 1.97% positive cases in that group.
2) HOW BIG IS THIS UNKNOWN GROUP?
This is related to the 'HOW LONG THE UNKNOWNS HAVE BEEN AROUND'. if the UNKNOWNS are a recent introduction when there were social distancing guidelines in place - it's smaller in number. If it was there since Jan - then its much larger - MILLIONS OF PEOPLE. What makes me believe it's a much smaller number than the figures being thrown around is hospitalizations. lets assume it has infected over the last 12 months - 1,000,000 people. it had a 80% mild condition rate and the 20% then had severe manifestation before people started protecting their old. Why didn't we see a spike of old people in hospitals? or people with immunocompromised systems? or diabetes? Remember the Pilot who died? he was 66 and still working. Most of the people who this disease has killed in Kenya have been over 60 years old. in the larger group - wh didn't we see (and still not seeing those people in hospitals)


your explanation is - somehow Africans are not exhibiting any symptoms and are going about living their normal lives... this is of course UNTIL they get caught by the contract tracing routine and added to GROUP 2 then we find they get symptomatic like everyone else.

The only way we would be winning this war would be if we are biologically different (Those Blacks in the US dying prove we are not). My conclusion is that the war is just beginning. We have put measures in place that are actually limiting the spread but we should not legeza Kamba because we thing 'its not affecting us as projected'.

People are really dismissing social distancing and wearing masks - because they are really simple activities. We want to flamboyant actions like spraying the streets with obscure smoky substances. Sorry - this battle is won through simple changes in behavior at an individual level as is happening in Japan or Taiwan.

@Angelina. Why do you think America (NASA)spends billions conducting experiments in space? Some of those experiments are in the field of medicine where they study the behaviour of organisms like bacteria.
Simple explanation is that some of this microorganisms behave diffrentntly in diffrent environments. Some are even sensitive to the earths magnetism. Anyway I have hypothesized on this matter in so many ways. But still we can't rule out being covered by the blood.

According to the Free newspaper,"People Daily" our hospitals are empty.We are not only free of Corona but also other non communicable diseases have gone.Some one post that Daily Paper here.Am still unable to attach photos🙈)

This confirms what I believe is the situation......that our infections are not that severe.A person with Severe COVID will not wait for MOH team to tell them they are sick,they will have gone to hospital to seek treatment on their own.Some people are claiming that guys are self medicating but pharmacies too are reporting low sales.Fresh farm produce has become the new medicine.Lemon, Ginger and pineapple has become the new bae.

New lessons in the medical world,we dont need to go to hospital for any small ailment,we should give our bodies time to fight.With little drinking and night curfew,accidents have also reduced so the emergency and accidents Units are free.Me thinks we should pick the positives from this pandemic and carry them to the future.

Things are thick in Tanzania. I hope the border is closed

As I said - Africans are cowards (a good thing in this case) - they are not going to hospitals! Buy the way - the social distancing regime may affect other diseases that we used to pass around during social interactions. Expect fewer colds and flu this year.

On a separate note: Of course people are working on predictive models are guesstimating when the disease MAY end in different countries.



97% of the worlds cases will have been resolved by the end of May but the rest of the cases will drag on until June.


Djibuti may be one of the first east african countries to go through it and get done by May.

Iran - June


it is EXPECTED that Kenya will delay and the cases will be sorted in July



OF COURSE, THESE ARE PROJECTIONS NOT PROPHESIES.

the Source of these predictions is this Singaporean Company
https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/

I am glad you noted this too

This will turn to be a choir soonest.

https://www.theguardian....sts-us-will-seek-damages

Spike in pneumonia related deaths in Nigeria

And this

I still feel that there's also misreporting on cause of death in Kenya as is happening in Nigeria where there's been a spike in deaths related to pnuemonia.

Misreporting by who?

Do you have some data you can share specifically on pneumonia cases and accompanying deaths in Kenya from March?This would be of concern given that they are said to have common symptoms.

I think this is the kind of info we would like to get from "other" sources" just incase Mutahi is giving us false figures.

And it would be good to compare the figures with previous years data.

Thanks.Yes had seen this.The medics need to tell us more now that it's one month later.