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Coronavirus
murchr
#1371 Posted : Sunday, April 26, 2020 11:44:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
April 14th Nigeria had 350 confirmed cases.

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
kaka2za
#1372 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2020 9:42:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/3/2008
Posts: 4,058
Location: Gwitu
I think we a need a regional approach and possibly have a lockdown in the entire region.
As it is now, reopening the borders will bring another wave of infections.
Truth forever on the scaffold
Wrong forever on the throne
(James Russell Rowell)
Bigchick
#1373 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2020 10:58:55 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/8/2013
Posts: 4,068
Location: At Large.
masukuma wrote:
Bigchick wrote:
masukuma wrote:
some corrections
1) Corona could not have been here for 100 days (that's early Jan) without choking our hospitals or at least having most of us infected by now. We are not a different species.
2) On clinical trials for the vaccines - it's not going to be conducted here. It's actually sad that antivaxxers have won the psychological anti-science game on this one with their conspiracy theories. On the flipside - what have africans done for the world? a few of us being part of a GLOBAL test would be the only contribution you will have made for this disease and if you wonder if I would submit myself to clinical trials - sure! I would.
3) the huge epidemic will come if you don't take care of yourselves. This is AFRICA!!




@Masukuma,I strongly believe it landed in January or even Dec 2019.My conviction is based on 3 cases of people close to me who were sick around that time and other cases I have had from those dates.Cases with similar symptoms and healing pattern.Thank God for ignorance coz if the same had occurred today in the COVID season they would have died of panic than from the disease.

They took drugs and concoctions believing it's a normal cold/flu and fought it off.

The bottom line being yes we are getting infected but not getting severe hence no mass cases in hospital.


Jan 2020? are Africans a different species altogether?

We all agree that the disease is infectious as f*ck!! Let's assume that the disease manifests differently for Kenyans (not Africans - since we can see cases increasing all over the place). does it not infect us that much? no social distancing for 100 days, kissing, hugging, coughing, shaking hands... 100 days and there is no trace other than anecdotal stories of "a bad flu"? We are testing people now and each person who is tested seems to have spread it to others - this "normal" behaviour of Covid is manifesting now but not 100 days ago?
the only way for the people with "a bad flu" to determine whether they had covid is to get both and tell us IF THEY WERE THE SAME.

Why arent our hospitals full? this disease is very infectious and when it gets people with immunocompromised systems. People with HIV and poor diets - it f***s them up. I personally know 2 people who had it and the fever is UNBELIEVABLE. It leaves them very very weak. One is a Kenyan living abroad and he was f*cked up - no voice for a few days. chest like a truck resting on it. He is better now. you want to tell me that we would have an infectious disease that travels that fast and we wouldn't notice it?

Are Kenyans a different species?




No @Masukuma,Kenyans and Africans are not a different species.

However facts on the ground show a trend that is worth some extra study.

Ok,let's reduce our days to March 13th when the Patient Zero was reported.We are on day 45,with 50% required discipline in keeping it at bay.We are still reporting small numbers of infections.I agree the tests are few so fewer numbers.But then again one does not need to be tested to know they are sick(and here I mean with symptoms).We are not having an influx of people with symptoms in hospitals or at home.Neither are we having mass deaths.(God forbid,we are not asking for them)

Yes the infected could be very many out there and we shall only know when they are tested but again I say if one is infected and has no symptoms or has mild symptoms and is able to fight it of over time,what is our worry??

Cases are increasing because more people are getting tested.If we dont test we shall not record new cases but that does not mean no people have been infected.

Yes COVID is highly infectious so let's keep it at bay by following guidelines but if by bad fortune you get it,it will be mild and you will heal.

Covid 19 Tracker Worldometer,of the active cases 97% are mild 3% are serious/critical




Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
mpobiz
#1374 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2020 10:59:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/10/2010
Posts: 2,265
kaka2za wrote:
I think we a need a regional approach and possibly have a lockdown in the entire region.
As it is now, reopening the borders will bring another wave of infections.


True. But just like nation's you as an individual can be following all the hyginen rules and even locking yourself in. But the moment you get out you meet your friend who has been free willying all over town.
The broad population has found its way around this lockdown. Drinks have never stopped flowing. Nyama choma has become even sweeter. You just need to know where to go.Lazima tujienjoy. For me I am just enjoying my holiday.
Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
mpobiz
#1375 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2020 2:06:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/10/2010
Posts: 2,265
mpobiz wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
I think we a need a regional approach and possibly have a lockdown in the entire region.
As it is now, reopening the borders will bring another wave of infections.


True. But just like nation's you as an individual can be following all the hyginen rules and even locking yourself in. But the moment you get out you meet your friend who has been free willying all over town.
The broad population has found its way around this lockdown. Drinks have never stopped flowing. Nyama choma has become even sweeter. You just need to know where to go.Lazima tujienjoy. For me I am just enjoying my holiday.


Mwafrika Ako na shida sana. Kuuziwa uwoga whole sale. With your 10 deaths (not proven that all are covid related ) and zero hospitalized cases. Curfews and l ockdowns.
I want you to take alook at the people you try so hard to imitate. Do I need to report their death rates and numbers of their infected folks?

https://www.straitstimes...gh-amid-steps-to-reopen

https://edition.cnn.com/...navirus-heat/index.html

And you continue to sell fear to your kids.
Then you wander why most of you will die poor.
Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
masukuma
#1376 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2020 2:59:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,823
Location: Nairobi
BigChick wrote:

No @Masukuma,Kenyans and Africans are not a different species.

However facts on the ground show a trend that is worth some extra study.

Ok,let's reduce our days to March 13th when the Patient Zero was reported.We are on day 45,with 50% required discipline in keeping it at bay.We are still reporting small numbers of infections.I agree the tests are few so fewer numbers.But then again one does not need to be tested to know they are sick(and here I mean with symptoms).We are not having an influx of people with symptoms in hospitals or at home.Neither are we having mass deaths.(God forbid,we are not asking for them)

Yes the infected could be very many out there and we shall only know when they are tested but again I say if one is infected and has no symptoms or has mild symptoms and is able to fight it of over time,what is our worry??

Cases are increasing because more people are getting tested.If we don't test we shall not record new cases but that does not mean no people have been infected.

Yes COVID is highly infectious so let's keep it at bay by following guidelines but if by bad fortune you get it,it will be mild and you will heal.

Covid 19 Tracker Worldometer,of the active cases 97% are mild 3% are serious/critical





Assume that we have 2 overlapping Groups:

Group 1 - the group that has a KNOWN case within. People who 1 person reported themselves and subsequent contacts were traced from them. this group with at least 1 KNOWN person is yielding numbers that range between 0.6% to 2.75% of the samples tested. This is the one Kagwe and co. have been talking to us since 13th March. the total number of people tested in this SUSPECTED GROUP to date is less than 20k.

Group 2: the UNKNOWN group:
You are stating that there is a MUCH MUCH LARGER group that has been here for the last 100+ days. Infections happening, Healing, Dying (and sickness being attributed to something else) - but since the disease does not require the host to acknowledge so that it adjusts its spread behavior to what we expect (3+ people getting infected by each previous infection based on what we know from the disease) it has been spreading without social distancing for 100+ days. Considering virus shedding after infection can last upto 37 days (but the median is around 20 days) - where people can still pass on the virus to others and also test positively HOWEVER somehow these people in this much larger and EXPONENTIALLY growing group have seldomly overlapped with Group 1 in order to spike the number of positive cases? That whatever group we test - we end up with less than 2% of them being infections? Also, for unexplained circumstances - the sick from this have not flooded out hospitals?

Riwry? how plausible is that?

p.s. I am not disputing that there is a UNKNOW group - the question is
1) HOW LONG HAS IT BEEN AROUND?
2) HOW BIG IS IT?
3) HOW DOES IT INTERSECT WITH GROUP 1?

at what point does the invisible start looking like the non-existent?
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
masukuma
#1377 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2020 3:05:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,823
Location: Nairobi
mpobiz wrote:
mpobiz wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
I think we a need a regional approach and possibly have a lockdown in the entire region.
As it is now, reopening the borders will bring another wave of infections.


True. But just like nation's you as an individual can be following all the hyginen rules and even locking yourself in. But the moment you get out you meet your friend who has been free willying all over town.
The broad population has found its way around this lockdown. Drinks have never stopped flowing. Nyama choma has become even sweeter. You just need to know where to go.Lazima tujienjoy. For me I am just enjoying my holiday.


Mwafrika Ako na shida sana. Kuuziwa uwoga whole sale. With your 10 deaths (not proven that all are covid related ) and zero hospitalized cases. Curfews and l ockdowns.
I want you to take alook at the people you try so hard to imitate. Do I need to report their death rates and numbers of their infected folks?

https://www.straitstimes...gh-amid-steps-to-reopen

https://edition.cnn.com/...navirus-heat/index.html

And you continue to sell fear to your kids.
Then you wander why most of you will die poor.



There are two parameters - uoga and ujinga.

Asians - WAOOGA lakini SIO WAJINGA
Wazungu - SIO WAOGA lakini NI WAJINGA
WaAfrika - WAOOGA na pia NI WAJINGA!

sasa unataka tu wache UOGA tuwe kama Wazungu?
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
Angelica _ann
#1378 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2020 4:07:39 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,937
Following the directives of His Excellency the President, National Emergency Response Committee on Coronavirus has approved the following guidelines for partial reopening of eateries and restaurants.

a)All restaurants shall only operate between 05.00 a.m.and 04.00 p.m.
b) Restaurants must limit the number of diners or customers to 4 people for every 10 square metres space.      



c) Tables in the dining areas must be spaced 1.5 metres apart in the dining area or seat customer groups at least 1.5 metres apart.
d)Maintain distance from the back of one chair to the other chair not less than a metre and guests must face each other from a distance of at least one metre.
*e) Alcohol shall only be sold with a meal in the restaurant and only be served to customers waiting to be served a meal, during the meal, or 30 minutes after the meal has ended.*
(h) Temporarily discontinue self-service of ready-to-eat foods such as salad bars or buffets.
(i) Customers to have their meals delivered individually to the dining table by appointed restaurant stewards. If buffet meals are served the service shall be by only one person appointed by the restaurant.
(j) Restaurants to ensure quality and safety of food, to rinse and sanitize food contact surfaces, disinfect surfaces, floors and counters.
(k) Install adequate portable running water and accessible washing basins for hand washing purposes, install alcohol based-hand sanitizers at the entrance and exit points.
(l) Restaurants and eateries must install a contact free thermometer and ensure that every person entering the premises has his/her body temperature taken.



(m) Any staff member or reveler with temperature above 37.5 degrees shall not be allowed entry into the premises, and the premises shall immediately notify the Ministry of Health through the toll free no 719 for guidance.
(n) Ensure physical distancing (1 metre - 3 feet) in food preparation areas.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
murchr
#1379 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2020 5:42:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980


"Picha picha picha ....haturusu...babu picha haturuhusu...."

Tanzania! Who would have thought?

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
kaka2za
#1380 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2020 8:13:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/3/2008
Posts: 4,058
Location: Gwitu
masukuma wrote:
BigChick wrote:

No @Masukuma,Kenyans and Africans are not a different species.

However facts on the ground show a trend that is worth some extra study.

Ok,let's reduce our days to March 13th when the Patient Zero was reported.We are on day 45,with 50% required discipline in keeping it at bay.We are still reporting small numbers of infections.I agree the tests are few so fewer numbers.But then again one does not need to be tested to know they are sick(and here I mean with symptoms).We are not having an influx of people with symptoms in hospitals or at home.Neither are we having mass deaths.(God forbid,we are not asking for them)

Yes the infected could be very many out there and we shall only know when they are tested but again I say if one is infected and has no symptoms or has mild symptoms and is able to fight it of over time,what is our worry??

Cases are increasing because more people are getting tested.If we don't test we shall not record new cases but that does not mean no people have been infected.

Yes COVID is highly infectious so let's keep it at bay by following guidelines but if by bad fortune you get it,it will be mild and you will heal.

Covid 19 Tracker Worldometer,of the active cases 97% are mild 3% are serious/critical





Assume that we have 2 overlapping Groups:

Group 1 - the group that has a KNOWN case within. People who 1 person reported themselves and subsequent contacts were traced from them. this group with at least 1 KNOWN person is yielding numbers that range between 0.6% to 2.75% of the samples tested. This is the one Kagwe and co. have been talking to us since 13th March. the total number of people tested in this SUSPECTED GROUP to date is less than 20k.

Group 2: the UNKNOWN group:
You are stating that there is a MUCH MUCH LARGER group that has been here for the last 100+ days. Infections happening, Healing, Dying (and sickness being attributed to something else) - but since the disease does not require the host to acknowledge so that it adjusts its spread behavior to what we expect (3+ people getting infected by each previous infection based on what we know from the disease) it has been spreading without social distancing for 100+ days. Considering virus shedding after infection can last upto 37 days (but the median is around 20 days) - where people can still pass on the virus to others and also test positively HOWEVER somehow these people in this much larger and EXPONENTIALLY growing group have seldomly overlapped with Group 1 in order to spike the number of positive cases? That whatever group we test - we end up with less than 2% of them being infections? Also, for unexplained circumstances - the sick from this have not flooded out hospitals?

Riwry? how plausible is that?

p.s. I am not disputing that there is a UNKNOW group - the question is
1) HOW LONG HAS IT BEEN AROUND?
2) HOW BIG IS IT?
3) HOW DOES IT INTERSECT WITH GROUP 1?

at what point does the invisible start looking like the non-existent?


Finally, we can agree that either the unknown group does not exist or they are not exhibiting any symptoms.
This means either we are winning the war against the invisible enemy or we have reached a ceasefire with the enemy.
Truth forever on the scaffold
Wrong forever on the throne
(James Russell Rowell)
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