Our people have a dangerous worldview, a very fatalistic worldview. When we go to a witchdoctor, a wizard, a palm reader, a prophet or prophetess and they immediately give you what your future is to be. it's YOUR FUTURE. Nothing can change it. When your future does not become as it was prophesied - people the say the wizard, witchdoctor,palm reader, prophet/prophetess was a fake one! Remember this one?


Projections say - HOLDING ALL THINGS CONSTANT... this will be the outcome. if no controls are put in place - expect this. simple things like washing hands, wearing masks, practicing social distancing etc. don't feel like much but they cut down the numbers drastically. The biggest issue is when people mistake simple measures and innoculus measures. because so far most people are required to do very little they think that the very little is very useless. Echoing @alma - not meeting projections is a good thing - it shows you did something... don't dismiss these projections - they are cautionary in nature.
Don't legeza kamba...

I was i proponent of curfew, controlled movement and even lockdown until i realized the government is not playing its part _ still allowing movement. We are headed nowhere with the Gava laxity on implementation of its own guidelines and laws. The almost 2 months are wasted time, let us compare notes on 15th May on the much that would have been achieved by then.

Understand that the disease is not spontaneous!! it does not start from nothing and jump on people who are not practicing social distancing.
People in Kibera could be all sleeping on each other but without a single case going there - it would not have infected them.
Measures work to prevent disease first in places WHERE THE DISEASE IS PRESENT remember Unlike white people's countries in Africa this disease was brought in by people who don't live in those places like Kibera.
It also happens that the people who would bring it in are a bit better at listening to what GOK is saying - remember case 1? she felt the symptoms and she took herself to the Government. The problem of having it living too much in our population is that it now strays from these people to the people you don't want it to land in. Consider the Kenya Ports Authority Cluster - one person comes from abroad and they don't contain it and now people like truck drivers who then give it to restaurant attendants and hookers in Voi, Mtito, Sultan Hamud, Salga, Kikopey start picking it! then it blows up...


There is an aspect of time WHEN THE MEASURES WERE PUT IN PLACE.
Again Consider this visualization


if all the second lot of infections practiced social distances - the disease is snuffed at that point. As time goes by it becomes much more difficult to contain it. because first you have 3 people to ensure follow the guidelines - if they don't then 9 in the next cycle. if not - 27 have to comply. if not 81 have to comply. The later you implement these guidelines - the less the effect of the measures. Italy reported it's first case on 31st January but put in place lockdown on March 8. Uganda placed restrictions on 18 March and they only reported their first case on the 20th of March.

We are at the cusp of that happening! those 5 drivers who drove all the way from the coast to UG imply that we have a problem on our hands. if we have clusters in the stops where these drivers stop - we will have lost the game. I know we are never told this by our parents or teachers - YOUR ACTIONS CHANGE THE FUTURE. Africans are used to sliding through life and whatever happens, happens. In this case, SIMPLE ACTIONS will change our outcome.

I did not say we don’t have Corona in Kibera - I said their compliance to social distancing would mean nothing if the disease is not there. The official figures have a couple of cases there. Has it been snuffed out at the root? I don’t know! We will have to wait and see. But until then practice social distancing. Testing is someone else’s responsibility- yours is social distancing. How many tests did Taiwan conduct? While testing shows you how had your situation is Social Distancing reduces the bite of the disease.

Pale twitter ni kama hapa:

NYC has had 11,000 Covid deaths.

Tokyo, the World's largest and densest city, has had 93.

NYC is locked down.

Tokyo was never locked down.

Both have had the virus for the same amount of time.

Why is NYC's death rate 250 times higher than Tokyo's?

Something fishy here.

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1254187423011045385