If you believe so, convince them to donate plasma at Mbagathi, they may be a very great help to humans hurting right now.

the one thing that people seem not to understand or comprehend is exponents. they are rare in life and when they start - they seem meek. the King in the above story was like at the end of the first row he was down 128 grains of wheat but things got really bad in the second row. By the 21st square he owed over a million grains; by the 41st, it was over a trillion grains of wheat — more wheat than he, his subjects or any king anywhere could afford. by the 64th square he had to give that guy 18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains of wheat.


The simple story above is based on an R0 of 2. that's the rate of increase. if one grain of wheat gave rise to 2 grains of wheat - 64 times.

Trump was also caught in this thing at the beginning - we cannot understand how INFECTIOUS THIS THING IS.
The R0 of this disease is conservatively set at R0 =3. So what you people want to tell us that there was a disease of R0 = 3 that after being passed on 10 times where if each person getting would infect more 3 people we would end up with 59,000 people getting infected on that 10th pass and we didn't know it? One which on the 21st cycle would have infected more than double the earth's population (15,690,529,801 people) and we didn't know it? pris!! that this disease would be in our population with no social distancing at all AND no one would note it other than the fact that there are anecdotes of "nilipata homa mbaya" in December and January halafu it disappeared?

Visualize this and understand what does social distancing helps with?


Americans are saying that the disease has R0 of between 5-6. Considering that a disease of R0 of 5 would infect 9 million people on its 10th cycle and by that time would have infected a total of 12,207,031 people.
That this disease would go through our population and no alarm was raised on social media except with hindsight?

As Kagwe would ask you- Riwry?

So how long will we remain in lockdown to eliminate the virus? The government is clueless on that and this is is an exercise in futility.

Our biggest undoing is that tracing is authoritative and not voluntary.

Plus this idea of if you are violating the curfew, then you are taken to isolation as a punishment, who does that? Such archaic thinking.

Do defeat the virus, you are supposed to work with the people not castigate the people. Promote communication, partnership and cooperation not what am seeing.

Let us wait and see how far we will go with the current government shenanigans.

Ni hayo tu!!!

@alma, I think we are getting somewhere. I retreated to the farm in Nyeri and life here is very close to normal. Apart from the closure of hotels, one can hardly notice any difference. At the golf club, the clubhouse is closed and there are no caddies but there are guys playing everyday.

If after another 21 years we still have zero cases in the upcountry counties, then reopening the hotels and bars in those counties would be a reasonable thing to do.

Numbers can lie. The projections for infections and fatalities in Africa have fallen flat.
African streets were expected to be full of bodies by the end of April.
However, I think the number of tests in Africa are so low to authoritatively declare any country covid free.
It is likely that numbers are much higher but what really matters is that hospitals are empty.
Diarrhoea has probably caused more deaths in Africa than corona.

Our people have a dangerous worldview, a very fatalistic worldview. When we go to a witchdoctor, a wizard, a palm reader, a prophet or prophetess and they immediately give you what your future is to be. it's YOUR FUTURE. Nothing can change it. When your future does not become as it was prophesied - people the say the wizard, witchdoctor,palm reader, prophet/prophetess was a fake one! Remember this one?


Projections say - HOLDING ALL THINGS CONSTANT... this will be the outcome. if no controls are put in place - expect this. simple things like washing hands, wearing masks, practicing social distancing etc. don't feel like much but they cut down the numbers drastically. The biggest issue is when people mistake simple measures and innoculus measures. because so far most people are required to do very little they think that the very little is very useless. Echoing @alma - not meeting projections is a good thing - it shows you did something... don't dismiss these projections - they are cautionary in nature.
Don't legeza kamba...

I was i proponent of curfew, controlled movement and even lockdown until i realized the government is not playing its part _ still allowing movement. We are headed nowhere with the Gava laxity on implementation of its own guidelines and laws. The almost 2 months are wasted time, let us compare notes on 15th May on the much that would have been achieved by then.

Understand that the disease is not spontaneous!! it does not start from nothing and jump on people who are not practicing social distancing.
People in Kibera could be all sleeping on each other but without a single case going there - it would not have infected them.
Measures work to prevent disease first in places WHERE THE DISEASE IS PRESENT remember Unlike white people's countries in Africa this disease was brought in by people who don't live in those places like Kibera.
It also happens that the people who would bring it in are a bit better at listening to what GOK is saying - remember case 1? she felt the symptoms and she took herself to the Government. The problem of having it living too much in our population is that it now strays from these people to the people you don't want it to land in. Consider the Kenya Ports Authority Cluster - one person comes from abroad and they don't contain it and now people like truck drivers who then give it to restaurant attendants and hookers in Voi, Mtito, Sultan Hamud, Salga, Kikopey start picking it! then it blows up...


There is an aspect of time WHEN THE MEASURES WERE PUT IN PLACE.
Again Consider this visualization


if all the second lot of infections practiced social distances - the disease is snuffed at that point. As time goes by it becomes much more difficult to contain it. because first you have 3 people to ensure follow the guidelines - if they don't then 9 in the next cycle. if not - 27 have to comply. if not 81 have to comply. The later you implement these guidelines - the less the effect of the measures. Italy reported it's first case on 31st January but put in place lockdown on March 8. Uganda placed restrictions on 18 March and they only reported their first case on the 20th of March.

We are at the cusp of that happening! those 5 drivers who drove all the way from the coast to UG imply that we have a problem on our hands. if we have clusters in the stops where these drivers stop - we will have lost the game. I know we are never told this by our parents or teachers - YOUR ACTIONS CHANGE THE FUTURE. Africans are used to sliding through life and whatever happens, happens. In this case, SIMPLE ACTIONS will change our outcome.

I did not say we don’t have Corona in Kibera - I said their compliance to social distancing would mean nothing if the disease is not there. The official figures have a couple of cases there. Has it been snuffed out at the root? I don’t know! We will have to wait and see. But until then practice social distancing. Testing is someone else’s responsibility- yours is social distancing. How many tests did Taiwan conduct? While testing shows you how had your situation is Social Distancing reduces the bite of the disease.

Pale twitter ni kama hapa:

NYC has had 11,000 Covid deaths.

Tokyo, the World's largest and densest city, has had 93.

NYC is locked down.

Tokyo was never locked down.

Both have had the virus for the same amount of time.

Why is NYC's death rate 250 times higher than Tokyo's?

Something fishy here.

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1254187423011045385