If you believe so, convince them to donate plasma at Mbagathi, they may be a very great help to humans hurting right now.

the one thing that people seem not to understand or comprehend is exponents. they are rare in life and when they start - they seem meek. the King in the above story was like at the end of the first row he was down 128 grains of wheat but things got really bad in the second row. By the 21st square he owed over a million grains; by the 41st, it was over a trillion grains of wheat — more wheat than he, his subjects or any king anywhere could afford. by the 64th square he had to give that guy 18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains of wheat.


The simple story above is based on an R0 of 2. that's the rate of increase. if one grain of wheat gave rise to 2 grains of wheat - 64 times.

Trump was also caught in this thing at the beginning - we cannot understand how INFECTIOUS THIS THING IS.
The R0 of this disease is conservatively set at R0 =3. So what you people want to tell us that there was a disease of R0 = 3 that after being passed on 10 times where if each person getting would infect more 3 people we would end up with 59,000 people getting infected on that 10th pass and we didn't know it? One which on the 21st cycle would have infected more than double the earth's population (15,690,529,801 people) and we didn't know it? pris!! that this disease would be in our population with no social distancing at all AND no one would note it other than the fact that there are anecdotes of "nilipata homa mbaya" in December and January halafu it disappeared?

Visualize this and understand what does social distancing helps with?


Americans are saying that the disease has R0 of between 5-6. Considering that a disease of R0 of 5 would infect 9 million people on its 10th cycle and by that time would have infected a total of 12,207,031 people.
That this disease would go through our population and no alarm was raised on social media except with hindsight?

As Kagwe would ask you- Riwry?

So how long will we remain in lockdown to eliminate the virus? The government is clueless on that and this is is an exercise in futility.

Our biggest undoing is that tracing is authoritative and not voluntary.

Plus this idea of if you are violating the curfew, then you are taken to isolation as a punishment, who does that? Such archaic thinking.

Do defeat the virus, you are supposed to work with the people not castigate the people. Promote communication, partnership and cooperation not what am seeing.

Let us wait and see how far we will go with the current government shenanigans.

Ni hayo tu!!!

@alma, I think we are getting somewhere. I retreated to the farm in Nyeri and life here is very close to normal. Apart from the closure of hotels, one can hardly notice any difference. At the golf club, the clubhouse is closed and there are no caddies but there are guys playing everyday.

If after another 21 years we still have zero cases in the upcountry counties, then reopening the hotels and bars in those counties would be a reasonable thing to do.

Numbers can lie. The projections for infections and fatalities in Africa have fallen flat.
African streets were expected to be full of bodies by the end of April.
However, I think the number of tests in Africa are so low to authoritatively declare any country covid free.
It is likely that numbers are much higher but what really matters is that hospitals are empty.
Diarrhoea has probably caused more deaths in Africa than corona.