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Coronavirus
murchr
#781 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 4:33:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Dahatre wrote:
mpobiz wrote:
Dahatre wrote:
sqft wrote:


f*** this dude!
Arrgghh who gave him his Ph.D??
Shindwe!!

All he has to do is google the cost of producing a single vaccine ($200-500 million)-Between our poorly managed resources and the thieving, where do we get that kind of money? And this was 2006 costs (certain to be higher now):

Assembling a Global Vaccine Development Pipeline for Infectious Diseases in the Developing World

The mofo is just shifting blame. Countries with a strong research infrastructure build it with public funds first then support business models to produce therapies...






I think this guy is simply saying that complex discoveries and in this case medical discoveries can be made by a PhD and basic lab equipment.like how penicillin was discovered.
When a PhD holder produces a credible thesis that is read by other PhD holders and approved. then serious work can begin.

He is a governor..right?
He can lead the effort by setting aside a budget to establish a lab to do the work. Kenya does not have a shortage of scientists He can lead the way if it is so simple.

Here is an excerpt of the article I linked above--
It often takes more than 10 years to deliver a final, licensed vaccine,5 and requires not only excellence during research and product development but also managerial and funding commitment throughout the endeavor. The cost of developing a vaccine—from research and discovery to product registration—is estimated to be between US $200 million and US $500 million per vaccine.6 This figure includes vaccines that are abandoned during the development process. In short, vaccine research and product development is lengthy, complex, and loaded with binary outcome risks."

Maybe the western approach of making vaccines is just too expensive/complicated?



This is a non issue. I notice the docs in wazua are nowhere I guess they are busy looking for a vaccine.

But we need home grown solutions fast! On everything, production of vaccines, PPE, respirators etc Even if a vaccine is discovered in America - The American population will be first before they pick where else they would think of going next. I heard Mutahi say they are planning to import more respirators - From where? America is forcing GM to stop producing cars and produce respirators for their hospitals. Ford is working with GE to produce more respirators also. So who will be sending us these respirators?

Mutua is very right, dont just read the heading and run with it listen to what he says
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
tycho
#782 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 4:49:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
What I can tell you for free my friends, is that the medical strategy being used for this Covid-19 is premised on lockdowns and it depends on the availability of a vaccine to be effective. As such, it is inefficient and ineffective. For example, right now the medical strategy fears the spread of the virus to new geographical zones. Therefore it's lockdown till vaccine.

I suggest we drop that strategy and execute a strategy of controlled spread of the virus along an economic plan, and develop 'herd immunity' over at least a 3 year period.

I propose we mix a strategy of talking down the virus with support from more conventional treatments. This will accelerate healing, will minimize use of medicines and best of all, it can allow the most dire cases to have the scarce equipment we have. That way, we may also reduce the number of deaths greatly.

And we won't get into unnecessary debt for taking care of our health.
TNT
#783 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 4:51:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/22/2009
Posts: 206
murchr wrote:
Dahatre wrote:
mpobiz wrote:
Dahatre wrote:
sqft wrote:


f*** this dude!
Arrgghh who gave him his Ph.D??
Shindwe!!

All he has to do is google the cost of producing a single vaccine ($200-500 million)-Between our poorly managed resources and the thieving, where do we get that kind of money? And this was 2006 costs (certain to be higher now):

Assembling a Global Vaccine Development Pipeline for Infectious Diseases in the Developing World

The mofo is just shifting blame. Countries with a strong research infrastructure build it with public funds first then support business models to produce therapies...






I think this guy is simply saying that complex discoveries and in this case medical discoveries can be made by a PhD and basic lab equipment.like how penicillin was discovered.
When a PhD holder produces a credible thesis that is read by other PhD holders and approved. then serious work can begin.

He is a governor..right?
He can lead the effort by setting aside a budget to establish a lab to do the work. Kenya does not have a shortage of scientists He can lead the way if it is so simple.

Here is an excerpt of the article I linked above--
It often takes more than 10 years to deliver a final, licensed vaccine,5 and requires not only excellence during research and product development but also managerial and funding commitment throughout the endeavor. The cost of developing a vaccine—from research and discovery to product registration—is estimated to be between US $200 million and US $500 million per vaccine.6 This figure includes vaccines that are abandoned during the development process. In short, vaccine research and product development is lengthy, complex, and loaded with binary outcome risks."

Maybe the western approach of making vaccines is just too expensive/complicated?



This is a non issue. I notice the docs in wazua are nowhere I guess they are busy looking for a vaccine.

But we need home grown solutions fast! On everything, production of vaccines, PPE, respirators etc Even if a vaccine is discovered in America - The American population will be first before they pick where else they would think of going next. I heard Mutahi say they are planning to import more respirators - From where? America is forcing GM to stop producing cars and produce respirators for their hospitals. Ford is working with GE to produce more respirators also. So who will be sending us these respirators?

Mutua is very right, dont just read the heading and run with it listen to what he says



Given the number of lucky breaks in the medical research space, such as Viagra, I echo Mutua's sentiments. If you're at least doing something with what you already have, you might get a lucky break, just like the guy who discovered quinine. What the American are doing now with hydroxychloroquine and quinine is just trial and error, and they may just create their luck that way.
mkenyan
#784 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 5:19:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/1/2009
Posts: 1,883
tycho wrote:
What I can tell you for free my friends, is that the medical strategy being used for this Covid-19 is premised on lockdowns and it depends on the availability of a vaccine to be effective. As such, it is inefficient and ineffective. For example, right now the medical strategy fears the spread of the virus to new geographical zones. Therefore it's lockdown till vaccine.

I suggest we drop that strategy and execute a strategy of controlled spread of the virus along an economic plan, and develop 'herd immunity' over at least a 3 year period.

I propose we mix a strategy of talking down the virus with support from more conventional treatments. This will accelerate healing, will minimize use of medicines and best of all, it can allow the most dire cases to have the scarce equipment we have. That way, we may also reduce the number of deaths greatly.

And we won't get into unnecessary debt for taking care of our health.

herd immunity only makes sense if those who have been infected and recover develop immunity for a substantial period of time. so far it is not known if those infected develop immunity and if so for how long. to that end premising a strategy on the same may not be very wise.
alma1
#785 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 5:32:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/19/2015
Posts: 2,871
Location: hapo
mkenyan wrote:
tycho wrote:
What I can tell you for free my friends, is that the medical strategy being used for this Covid-19 is premised on lockdowns and it depends on the availability of a vaccine to be effective. As such, it is inefficient and ineffective. For example, right now the medical strategy fears the spread of the virus to new geographical zones. Therefore it's lockdown till vaccine.

I suggest we drop that strategy and execute a strategy of controlled spread of the virus along an economic plan, and develop 'herd immunity' over at least a 3 year period.

I propose we mix a strategy of talking down the virus with support from more conventional treatments. This will accelerate healing, will minimize use of medicines and best of all, it can allow the most dire cases to have the scarce equipment we have. That way, we may also reduce the number of deaths greatly.

And we won't get into unnecessary debt for taking care of our health.

herd immunity only makes sense if those who have been infected and recover develop immunity for a substantial period of time. so far it is not known if those infected develop immunity and if so for how long. to that end premising a strategy on the same may not be very wise.


And the UK and Sweden of herd mentality have started seeing that idea crumbling. Faster than the rates in Italy.

Only one method has worked. We know it. We have the data. The rest is conjecture. I don't want to be the guinea pig of an idea when a working one is right there infront of me.
Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?

tycho
#786 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 5:35:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
mkenyan wrote:
tycho wrote:
What I can tell you for free my friends, is that the medical strategy being used for this Covid-19 is premised on lockdowns and it depends on the availability of a vaccine to be effective. As such, it is inefficient and ineffective. For example, right now the medical strategy fears the spread of the virus to new geographical zones. Therefore it's lockdown till vaccine.

I suggest we drop that strategy and execute a strategy of controlled spread of the virus along an economic plan, and develop 'herd immunity' over at least a 3 year period.

I propose we mix a strategy of talking down the virus with support from more conventional treatments. This will accelerate healing, will minimize use of medicines and best of all, it can allow the most dire cases to have the scarce equipment we have. That way, we may also reduce the number of deaths greatly.

And we won't get into unnecessary debt for taking care of our health.

herd immunity only makes sense if those who have been infected and recover develop immunity for a substantial period of time. so far it is not known if those infected develop immunity and if so for how long. to that end premising a strategy on the same may not be very wise.


The method I am proposing doesn't experience the limitation you're saying. It is based on a dynamic relationship between host and virus under varying context and will iterate itself till stable equilibrium is reached.

Besides, if along executing the strategy I am proposing we find a vaccine, and it is reasonable to have it, then we can take the vaccine. But at least we will be moving, and it will be less costly and easy to implement.
tycho
#787 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 5:44:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
@Alma, the method I am proposing hasn't even been used by the Swedes. They probably haven't figured it out. Plus the Swedes have not frozen the virus.

Again, I haven't excluded the use of tested methods on patients, and the methods to be used are non invasive and a reliable backing of studies already done in different fields.

For example, nanotechnology can describe what we should expect in the behavior of the virus...

One rule in self defense, is keep moving. No country alma, has proven that the siege strategy works. People are frozen in place indefinitely, and soon we might just see even how the siege strategy will crumble.
masukuma
#788 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 5:58:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,821
Location: Nairobi
alma1 wrote:
mkenyan wrote:
tycho wrote:
What I can tell you for free my friends, is that the medical strategy being used for this Covid-19 is premised on lockdowns and it depends on the availability of a vaccine to be effective. As such, it is inefficient and ineffective. For example, right now the medical strategy fears the spread of the virus to new geographical zones. Therefore it's lockdown till vaccine.

I suggest we drop that strategy and execute a strategy of controlled spread of the virus along an economic plan, and develop 'herd immunity' over at least a 3 year period.

I propose we mix a strategy of talking down the virus with support from more conventional treatments. This will accelerate healing, will minimize use of medicines and best of all, it can allow the most dire cases to have the scarce equipment we have. That way, we may also reduce the number of deaths greatly.

And we won't get into unnecessary debt for taking care of our health.

herd immunity only makes sense if those who have been infected and recover develop immunity for a substantial period of time. so far it is not known if those infected develop immunity and if so for how long. to that end premising a strategy on the same may not be very wise.


And the UK and Sweden of herd mentality have started seeing that idea crumbling. Faster than the rates in Italy.

Only one method has worked. We know it. We have the data. The rest is conjecture. I don't want to be the guinea pig of an idea when a working one is right there infront of me.


I agree with Alma - this is no time for Ujuaji!!
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
tom_boy
#789 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 5:58:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
The challenge with covid is that the so called working solution is not workable in our situation. Let me illustrate.

Imagine farmer Johnson in Missouri has 100 head of cattle. He hears that there is an outbreak of a disease and that it spreads very fast when cattle go out to pasture. The disease will likely affect all his animals. However, 80 of his cows will suffer mild symptoms, maybe not eat for a day or three, but will eventually recover. 20 of his animals will get seriously ill and of these 5 will likely die unless he has sophisticated equipment and a top notch vetinary on hand, in which case he may only lose 3 cows. The remaining 15 sick cows will require advanced care in a special shed and daily cleaning and vitamins. He will have to hire extra people to take care of his 15 sick cows. To minimise the damage to his heard, he has the option of not taking them out to pasture. But then, what will they eat. If they do not eat for 21 days, he will have no herd to talk about. In steps his Govt. Since this is a cattle pandemic, the govt has realised that it has to support the farmers. It advices them to keep their animals in the shed. Meanwhile , the govt will supply hay from the strategic hay reserve to feed the cows for as long as they need to remain in the shed.

Now, contrast this with farmer Githinji in Ngecha. He has 100 cows that he pastures. The disease in Missouri has now reached Ngecha. Everyone is scared for their cattle. He has the option of keeping them in the shed but for how long? Nobody knows! There is talk that the disease could drag on for months. He has heard that giving extra vitamins can be protective but he is not sure. His govt has no strategic hay reserves though it is advicing him to keep his animals in the shed. If he takes them to pasture, he may lose 5 animals, have 15 very sick cows that he will need to take extra care not to lose. However, 80 of his cows will likely survive after a few days of showing symptoms. He can scramble his savings and hire extra help to take care of the 15 sick cows. He has never heard in his locality of a vet who can take care of the 5 very sick cows. He would have to import the vet and the required equipment and in any case, such vets and equipment are already in short supply. He cannot afford them anyway.

How would you advice Farmer Githinji? Should he quarantine his animals and likely lose them to starvation and pneumonia and worms? Shoulld he inject the vitamins and say a prayer, send them off to pasture while preparing a special place for the 15 sick animals that he can atleast try handle on the farm? Should he start looking for a loan and look for the special vet and equipment to handle the 5 cows that get very sick and of which he can only save 2?

They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
madollar
#790 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 6:00:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 2,038
Location: GA
[quote=Bigchick]Meanwhile,

https://news.cgtn.com/ne...rHX514Bi/share_amp.html[/quote]

From that article its obvious there is no magic bullet vaccine or therapy its social distancing AKA stay at home AKA lockdown

Prato's Chinese community, built originally around the textile industry, went into lockdown from the end of January, three weeks before Italy's first recorded infection. Many were returning from new year holidays in China, the then epicenter.

They knew what was coming and spread the word: stay home.

So as Italians headed to the ski slopes and crowded into cafes and bars as normal, the Chinese inhabitants of Prato had seemingly disappeared. Its streets, still festooned with Chinese New Year decorations, were semi-deserted, shops shuttered.
sqft
#791 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 6:07:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/10/2015
Posts: 961
Location: Kenya
Proverbs 13:11 Dishonest money dwindles away, but whoever gathers money little by little makes it grow.
Dahatre
#792 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 6:20:07 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/21/2009
Posts: 602
TNT wrote:
murchr wrote:
Dahatre wrote:
mpobiz wrote:
Dahatre wrote:
sqft wrote:


f*** this dude!
Arrgghh who gave him his Ph.D??
Shindwe!!

All he has to do is google the cost of producing a single vaccine ($200-500 million)-Between our poorly managed resources and the thieving, where do we get that kind of money? And this was 2006 costs (certain to be higher now):

Assembling a Global Vaccine Development Pipeline for Infectious Diseases in the Developing World

The mofo is just shifting blame. Countries with a strong research infrastructure build it with public funds first then support business models to produce therapies...






I think this guy is simply saying that complex discoveries and in this case medical discoveries can be made by a PhD and basic lab equipment.like how penicillin was discovered.
When a PhD holder produces a credible thesis that is read by other PhD holders and approved. then serious work can begin.

He is a governor..right?
He can lead the effort by setting aside a budget to establish a lab to do the work. Kenya does not have a shortage of scientists He can lead the way if it is so simple.

Here is an excerpt of the article I linked above--
It often takes more than 10 years to deliver a final, licensed vaccine,5 and requires not only excellence during research and product development but also managerial and funding commitment throughout the endeavor. The cost of developing a vaccine—from research and discovery to product registration—is estimated to be between US $200 million and US $500 million per vaccine.6 This figure includes vaccines that are abandoned during the development process. In short, vaccine research and product development is lengthy, complex, and loaded with binary outcome risks."

Maybe the western approach of making vaccines is just too expensive/complicated?



This is a non issue. I notice the docs in wazua are nowhere I guess they are busy looking for a vaccine.

But we need home grown solutions fast! On everything, production of vaccines, PPE, respirators etc Even if a vaccine is discovered in America - The American population will be first before they pick where else they would think of going next. I heard Mutahi say they are planning to import more respirators - From where? America is forcing GM to stop producing cars and produce respirators for their hospitals. Ford is working with GE to produce more respirators also. So who will be sending us these respirators?

Mutua is very right, dont just read the heading and run with it listen to what he says



Given the number of lucky breaks in the medical research space, such as Viagra, I echo Mutua's sentiments. If you're at least doing something with what you already have, you might get a lucky break, just like the guy who discovered quinine. What the American are doing now with hydroxychloroquine and quinine is just trial and error, and they may just create their luck that way.
Guys,
Please stop framing this as if those of us who object to mutua’s blame of scientists are against home grown solutions-Not the case at all…

All I am saying is that in the development of cures today, scientists, are the labor and politicians have the power to provide capital. So basically pointing the finger right back at him and asking him to lead by example. Am sure he can get 10 good scientists to move to Machakos and do nothing but come up with local solutions for the current and future pandemics.
Dahatre
#793 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 6:39:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/21/2009
Posts: 602
murchr wrote:
Dahatre wrote:
mpobiz wrote:
Dahatre wrote:
sqft wrote:


f*** this dude!
Arrgghh who gave him his Ph.D??
Shindwe!!

All he has to do is google the cost of producing a single vaccine ($200-500 million)-Between our poorly managed resources and the thieving, where do we get that kind of money? And this was 2006 costs (certain to be higher now):

Assembling a Global Vaccine Development Pipeline for Infectious Diseases in the Developing World

The mofo is just shifting blame. Countries with a strong research infrastructure build it with public funds first then support business models to produce therapies...






I think this guy is simply saying that complex discoveries and in this case medical discoveries can be made by a PhD and basic lab equipment.like how penicillin was discovered.
When a PhD holder produces a credible thesis that is read by other PhD holders and approved. then serious work can begin.

He is a governor..right?
He can lead the effort by setting aside a budget to establish a lab to do the work. Kenya does not have a shortage of scientists He can lead the way if it is so simple.

Here is an excerpt of the article I linked above--
It often takes more than 10 years to deliver a final, licensed vaccine,5 and requires not only excellence during research and product development but also managerial and funding commitment throughout the endeavor. The cost of developing a vaccine—from research and discovery to product registration—is estimated to be between US $200 million and US $500 million per vaccine.6 This figure includes vaccines that are abandoned during the development process. In short, vaccine research and product development is lengthy, complex, and loaded with binary outcome risks."

Maybe the western approach of making vaccines is just too expensive/complicated?



This is a non issue. I notice the docs in wazua are nowhere I guess they are busy looking for a vaccine.

But we need home grown solutions fast! On everything, production of vaccines, PPE, respirators etc Even if a vaccine is discovered in America - The American population will be first before they pick where else they would think of going next. I heard Mutahi say they are planning to import more respirators - From where? America is forcing GM to stop producing cars and produce respirators for their hospitals. Ford is working with GE to produce more respirators also. So who will be sending us these respirators?

Mutua is very right, dont just read the heading and run with it listen to what he says


The problem we have is unfathomable if we do not get our shit together and stop economic activities that kill local industries-and not just in health care (Not the the responsibility of Scientists)

W/r to CV Even if Kenya responds flawlessly, we are still f***ed, in large part because China controls the supply chain for everything, including the drugs that we need to manage patients in ICU's. China will supply Europe and US with ingredients they need to make dawas, tests, masks etc... before they supply us.

FYI I listened to the whole clip..and Mutua does not at any point say what he is bringing to the table. He is shifting blame instead of asking scientists what they would need to grow home made solutions--maybe he does not understand how science works.
tycho
#794 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 6:47:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
masukuma wrote:
alma1 wrote:
mkenyan wrote:
tycho wrote:
What I can tell you for free my friends, is that the medical strategy being used for this Covid-19 is premised on lockdowns and it depends on the availability of a vaccine to be effective. As such, it is inefficient and ineffective. For example, right now the medical strategy fears the spread of the virus to new geographical zones. Therefore it's lockdown till vaccine.

I suggest we drop that strategy and execute a strategy of controlled spread of the virus along an economic plan, and develop 'herd immunity' over at least a 3 year period.

I propose we mix a strategy of talking down the virus with support from more conventional treatments. This will accelerate healing, will minimize use of medicines and best of all, it can allow the most dire cases to have the scarce equipment we have. That way, we may also reduce the number of deaths greatly.

And we won't get into unnecessary debt for taking care of our health.

herd immunity only makes sense if those who have been infected and recover develop immunity for a substantial period of time. so far it is not known if those infected develop immunity and if so for how long. to that end premising a strategy on the same may not be very wise.


And the UK and Sweden of herd mentality have started seeing that idea crumbling. Faster than the rates in Italy.

Only one method has worked. We know it. We have the data. The rest is conjecture. I don't want to be the guinea pig of an idea when a working one is right there infront of me.


I agree with Alma - this is no time for Ujuaji!!


smile Okay. I went out a bit from my isolation, and I was shocked to find that the idea of masks and social distancing bado mbali kidogo.

Considering the maps we saw yesterday and where all this crowding non-masking was happening, then I surrender my case. I will say nothing else people!
alma1
#795 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 6:48:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/19/2015
Posts: 2,871
Location: hapo
tycho wrote:
@Alma, the method I am proposing hasn't even been used by the Swedes. They probably haven't figured it out. Plus the Swedes have not frozen the virus.

Again, I haven't excluded the use of tested methods on patients, and the methods to be used are non invasive and a reliable backing of studies already done in different fields.

For example, nanotechnology can describe what we should expect in the behavior of the virus...

One rule in self defense, is keep moving. No country alma, has proven that the siege strategy works. People are frozen in place indefinitely, and soon we might just see even how the siege strategy will crumble.


You may have a great idea. It might actually work. However, there's no time for testing.

Some companies have not made sales for some 4 weeks. Kenyans as you very well know are not those type of people you ask nicely.

UK tried this herd mentality stories. Trump's strategy was positive thinking. Kenya's case is a case of being slow in stopping outside flights.

You can't hide away from the data.

The only countries that are beating this thing and life is going on as normal have either gone the chinese way of absolutely locking you up in your house. Or the minor Asian countries which tested and are testing anything that is human at all times.

And those funny looking masks.

This is not rocket science. It's just data.

Thus far in ALL coronavirus cases starting from MERS, SARS and even Covid, those are the only methods that work.

Hakuna ingine.
Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?

murchr
#796 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 6:59:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Dahatre wrote:
murchr wrote:
Dahatre wrote:
mpobiz wrote:
Dahatre wrote:
sqft wrote:


f*** this dude!
Arrgghh who gave him his Ph.D??
Shindwe!!

All he has to do is google the cost of producing a single vaccine ($200-500 million)-Between our poorly managed resources and the thieving, where do we get that kind of money? And this was 2006 costs (certain to be higher now):

Assembling a Global Vaccine Development Pipeline for Infectious Diseases in the Developing World

The mofo is just shifting blame. Countries with a strong research infrastructure build it with public funds first then support business models to produce therapies...






I think this guy is simply saying that complex discoveries and in this case medical discoveries can be made by a PhD and basic lab equipment.like how penicillin was discovered.
When a PhD holder produces a credible thesis that is read by other PhD holders and approved. then serious work can begin.

He is a governor..right?
He can lead the effort by setting aside a budget to establish a lab to do the work. Kenya does not have a shortage of scientists He can lead the way if it is so simple.

Here is an excerpt of the article I linked above--
It often takes more than 10 years to deliver a final, licensed vaccine,5 and requires not only excellence during research and product development but also managerial and funding commitment throughout the endeavor. The cost of developing a vaccine—from research and discovery to product registration—is estimated to be between US $200 million and US $500 million per vaccine.6 This figure includes vaccines that are abandoned during the development process. In short, vaccine research and product development is lengthy, complex, and loaded with binary outcome risks."

Maybe the western approach of making vaccines is just too expensive/complicated?



This is a non issue. I notice the docs in wazua are nowhere I guess they are busy looking for a vaccine.

But we need home grown solutions fast! On everything, production of vaccines, PPE, respirators etc Even if a vaccine is discovered in America - The American population will be first before they pick where else they would think of going next. I heard Mutahi say they are planning to import more respirators - From where? America is forcing GM to stop producing cars and produce respirators for their hospitals. Ford is working with GE to produce more respirators also. So who will be sending us these respirators?

Mutua is very right, dont just read the heading and run with it listen to what he says


The problem we have is unfathomable if we do not get our shit together and stop economic activities that kill local industries-and not just in health care (Not the the responsibility of Scientists)

W/r to CV Even if Kenya responds flawlessly, we are still f***ed, in large part because China controls the supply chain for everything, including the drugs that we need to manage patients in ICU's. China will supply Europe and US with ingredients they need to make dawas, tests, masks etc... before they supply us.

FYI I listened to the whole clip..and Mutua does not at any point say what he is bringing to the table. He is shifting blame instead of asking scientists what they would need to grow home made solutions--maybe he does not understand how science works.


He said most scientist blame funding....and he offered a solution to that.

We should stop thinking about supply chains. Ngilu is making masks and other PPE stuff without waiting to be told do it...can someone else take initiative where they can?


"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Dahatre
#797 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 7:12:45 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/21/2009
Posts: 602
sqft wrote:


She is great!
She and others who recover might be our hope in learning more about CV. tracking her to see if she has developed immunity, how long she has the immunity and whether she can be our initial source of convalescent serum to treat others.

Maybe Mutua can come up with a resources plan for that small section of the big picture instead of lecturing us..
mpobiz
#798 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 7:32:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/10/2010
Posts: 2,264
tom_boy wrote:
The challenge with covid is that the so called working solution is not workable in our situation. Let me illustrate.

Imagine farmer Johnson in Missouri has 100 head of cattle. He hears that there is an outbreak of a disease and that it spreads very fast when cattle go out to pasture. The disease will likely affect all his animals. However, 80 of his cows will suffer mild symptoms, maybe not eat for a day or three, but will eventually recover. 20 of his animals will get seriously ill and of these 5 will likely die unless he has sophisticated equipment and a top notch vetinary on hand, in which case he may only lose 3 cows. The remaining 15 sick cows will require advanced care in a special shed and daily cleaning and vitamins. He will have to hire extra people to take care of his 15 sick cows. To minimise the damage to his heard, he has the option of not taking them out to pasture. But then, what will they eat. If they do not eat for 21 days, he will have no herd to talk about. In steps his Govt. Since this is a cattle pandemic, the govt has realised that it has to support the farmers. It advices them to keep their animals in the shed. Meanwhile , the govt will supply hay from the strategic hay reserve to feed the cows for as long as they need to remain in the shed.

Now, contrast this with farmer Githinji in Ngecha. He has 100 cows that he pastures. The disease in Missouri has now reached Ngecha. Everyone is scared for their cattle. He has the option of keeping them in the shed but for how long? Nobody knows! There is talk that the disease could drag on for months. He has heard that giving extra vitamins can be protective but he is not sure. His govt has no strategic hay reserves though it is advicing him to keep his animals in the shed. If he takes them to pasture, he may lose 5 animals, have 15 very sick cows that he will need to take extra care not to lose. However, 80 of his cows will likely survive after a few days of showing symptoms. He can scramble his savings and hire extra help to take care of the 15 sick cows. He has never heard in his locality of a vet who can take care of the 5 very sick cows. He would have to import the vet and the required equipment and in any case, such vets and equipment are already in short supply. He cannot afford them anyway.

How would you advice Farmer Githinji? Should he quarantine his animals and likely lose them to starvation and pneumonia and worms? Shoulld he inject the vitamins and say a prayer, send them off to pasture while preparing a special place for the 15 sick animals that he can atleast try handle on the farm? Should he start looking for a loan and look for the special vet and equipment to handle the 5 cows that get very sick and of which he can only save 2?


Herd immunity is the only way for our fragile African health systems and economies. Send all animals to pasture and prepare for the 15% fatalities. It's already a disaster . Let whoever who is willing to work or party do it while taking precautions.
Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
tycho
#799 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 7:43:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
Alma, wazuans: the methods I am talking about are not of my making, they are from our cultural heritage. What I have done is work and improve on this heritage over the years.

The health act has allowed for traditional medicine and worldview to work hand in hand with what is already there, and that is what I am and have been proposing.

Few here have considered that we can have our ancient traditional methods reformed into contemporary terms and even enhanced, given what we have learned from the West. But such knowledge exists, and if we follow the spirit of Kenyan law, then these circumstances would call for consideration of what we have developed from our ancestors.

In case you consider the validity of my assertion, then you will see that it is possible for us to change strategy if we have sound knowledge and information.

This is my country too, and I have just as much stakes as you do. And I wouldn't just bring out something without proper consideration. Let's not limit our resources due to prejudice.
tycho
#800 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 7:52:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
mpobiz wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
The challenge with covid is that the so called working solution is not workable in our situation. Let me illustrate.

Imagine farmer Johnson in Missouri has 100 head of cattle. He hears that there is an outbreak of a disease and that it spreads very fast when cattle go out to pasture. The disease will likely affect all his animals. However, 80 of his cows will suffer mild symptoms, maybe not eat for a day or three, but will eventually recover. 20 of his animals will get seriously ill and of these 5 will likely die unless he has sophisticated equipment and a top notch vetinary on hand, in which case he may only lose 3 cows. The remaining 15 sick cows will require advanced care in a special shed and daily cleaning and vitamins. He will have to hire extra people to take care of his 15 sick cows. To minimise the damage to his heard, he has the option of not taking them out to pasture. But then, what will they eat. If they do not eat for 21 days, he will have no herd to talk about. In steps his Govt. Since this is a cattle pandemic, the govt has realised that it has to support the farmers. It advices them to keep their animals in the shed. Meanwhile , the govt will supply hay from the strategic hay reserve to feed the cows for as long as they need to remain in the shed.

Now, contrast this with farmer Githinji in Ngecha. He has 100 cows that he pastures. The disease in Missouri has now reached Ngecha. Everyone is scared for their cattle. He has the option of keeping them in the shed but for how long? Nobody knows! There is talk that the disease could drag on for months. He has heard that giving extra vitamins can be protective but he is not sure. His govt has no strategic hay reserves though it is advicing him to keep his animals in the shed. If he takes them to pasture, he may lose 5 animals, have 15 very sick cows that he will need to take extra care not to lose. However, 80 of his cows will likely survive after a few days of showing symptoms. He can scramble his savings and hire extra help to take care of the 15 sick cows. He has never heard in his locality of a vet who can take care of the 5 very sick cows. He would have to import the vet and the required equipment and in any case, such vets and equipment are already in short supply. He cannot afford them anyway.

How would you advice Farmer Githinji? Should he quarantine his animals and likely lose them to starvation and pneumonia and worms? Shoulld he inject the vitamins and say a prayer, send them off to pasture while preparing a special place for the 15 sick animals that he can atleast try handle on the farm? Should he start looking for a loan and look for the special vet and equipment to handle the 5 cows that get very sick and of which he can only save 2?


Herd immunity is the only way for our fragile African health systems and economies. Send all animals to pasture and prepare for the 15% fatalities. It's already a disaster . Let whoever who is willing to work or party do it while taking precautions.


What I am proposing may be much safer. Freeze the virus, lower its energy level, usher it through the population. Wait for it to raise itself again, usher it again like we can do now. Then again and again. Till it habituates at an equilibrium. Then watch it over time.

As I said, very few need to die from this virus. And the data that alma is insisting on also supports the ideas that some countries have very little fatalities! Why not us, and we can do it?
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