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Coronavirus
murchr
#681 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 4:17:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
wukan wrote:
Shak wrote:
murchr wrote:
Shak wrote:
Germany has recorded less than 500 deaths out of over 60,000 cases. They must be doing something right.



Early testing which is key in beginning treatment and isolation. Plus the testing companies are based there, Siemens and Draeger are German companies so they have the capacity advantage.

The US, then, should hang their heads in shame: a supposed super power with all the tools at its disposal but can't coordinate an adequate response to the pandemic unlike Germany and others.


US in many areas is much 3rd world. Their healthcare system is shambolic and expensive. They wasted trillion dollars on wars instead. Post pandemic US will become socialist and inward looking.



Especially governors, no one will want to be asked to be "appreciative" when people are dying left right center.

I don't think we have the full Louisiana story...its going to explode.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Angelica _ann
#682 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 4:33:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
murchr wrote:
wukan wrote:
Shak wrote:
murchr wrote:
Shak wrote:
Germany has recorded less than 500 deaths out of over 60,000 cases. They must be doing something right.



Early testing which is key in beginning treatment and isolation. Plus the testing companies are based there, Siemens and Draeger are German companies so they have the capacity advantage.

The US, then, should hang their heads in shame: a supposed super power with all the tools at its disposal but can't coordinate an adequate response to the pandemic unlike Germany and others.


US in many areas is much 3rd world. Their healthcare system is shambolic and expensive. They wasted trillion dollars on wars instead. Post pandemic US will become socialist and inward looking.



Especially governors, no one will want to be asked to be "appreciative" when people are dying left right center.

I don't think we have the full Louisiana story...its going to explode.


I like the way guys in states left Trump to 'see with his own eyes' when he thought his ujinga is better than science.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
masukuma
#683 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 4:35:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,821
Location: Nairobi
That hardcore capitalistic system of the US will not be left unshaken - medicare for all will be a huge thing during the next election. Remember Obama care? People wanted it out but it got to a point where if you wanted it out - it could cost you an election. I think Medicare for all will be the same.
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
Shak
#684 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 5:56:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/22/2009
Posts: 2,449
Location: Africa
Lolest! wrote:
Masks, any type of mask will help slow down the virus as opined in this article
https://medium.com/@Cancerwarrior/covid-19-why-we-should-all-wear-masks-there-is-new-scientific-rationale-280e08ceee71

We should make use of Rivatez and Ngilu's textile factory.
murchr
#685 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 6:01:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Fauci - the worst seasonal flu -2017/18 killed 60K people this is worse, we expect over 100K to die in the US alone.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
madollar
#686 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 6:24:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 2,038
Location: GA
kaka2za wrote:
mpobiz wrote:
tycho wrote:
Covid-19 is lethal due to non biological factors. It is lethal due to negligence on the part of most governments. Pandemics/epidemics are foreseeable security and health challenges, and lack of equipment or professionals need not to be the main contributor of fatalities.





madollar wrote:
mpobiz wrote:
https://youtu.be/kN08StvCWgU


"They" have never forgotten who was responsible for the holocaust and 911 memorials will be built. The one certainty repercussions will happen watching media outlets such as fox news tells you whats coming once they conquer the virus.

But how the do that against the chinise is another thread altogether


China is somehow responsible for the escalation of this situation for hiding very iportant information on the seriousness of this virus. Look at it thisway.. when you suspect you have this virus you are moraly supposed to self isolate. The same as any nation. China was the first nation to notice the grave characteristics of this virus and instead of warning other nations and self isolate itself by locking its borders air sea and land. They went ahead and tried to cover things. Now they are boasting of how they have defeated the virus and are now almost closing their borders for "fear" of this virus 're entering their teritory.
Deep down in the hearts of this western nations now view China as a pariah state.
This might be the beginning of the end of the mighty China.


Nobody helped China to be where they are.
Conversely this could be the time China finally takes over from US as global economic superpower


Shame on you Shame on you Ngumu everybody will be watching china
now knowing that they will probably lay low.
Its highly likely they are preparing for a blowback post corona

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government is said to be furious over China's handling of the novel coronavirus, with one British official quoted on Sunday saying Beijing would face a "reckoning" once the COVID-19 crisis was over.

The west will reassess it threats with china up there na hizi mchezo kim jong un anakuwaga nazo with nuclear warheads sidhani they will tolerate them anymore
Lolest!
#687 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 7:29:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
This part is not getting enough attention
Nation wrote:
Ministry of Health Director General Dr Patrick Amoth said their preliminary modelling data showed that coronavirus cases by mid-April will hit 5,000, and rise to 10,000 by end of April in the absence of drastic intervention.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
Lolest!
#688 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 7:43:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
MatataMingi wrote:
@Lolest, The link above does not work

try again here:

https://medium.com/@Cancerwarrior/covid-19-why-we-should-all-wear-masks-there-is-new-scientific-rationale-280e08ceee71

The @ in the link could be breaking it. Try copy pasting
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
tycho
#689 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 7:54:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
Lolest! wrote:
This part is not getting enough attention
Nation wrote:
Ministry of Health Director General Dr Patrick Amoth said their preliminary modelling data showed that coronavirus cases by mid-April will hit 5,000, and rise to 10,000 by end of April in the absence of drastic intervention.


A model based on conditions stated above - absence of drastic intervention and SARS-Cov-2 being taken to have a Reproduction no. of 2 can be represented by a tree diagram. You can take a piece of paper or any suitable method and trace the spread of the virus.

Let's also assume that each person goes to four unique places on any day. Then that individual will spread to 2^3. We can then assume that after spreading to 2^3 people that individual is isolated and gives zero infection. Same for the next person, like that... How long would we need to get 5000 people infected?

Then compare that number to the span of days counted by the government official. Then please share the answer we see if the figures provided can tally with such a model...

This is a rather simple model because once you do 2^3 you get quarantined. A truly unabated case would be quite complex in terms of the spreader getting to new places and infecting everyday till the whole population is covered.

So please let's try the simple model and see if the figures we find will tally with the ones given.
limanika
#690 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 8:17:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
BCG- I hear comparison of data btw BCG vaccinating and non BCG vaccinating countries is generating a lot of interest?
murchr
#691 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 8:25:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
limanika wrote:
BCG- I hear comparison of data btw BCG vaccinating and non BCG vaccinating countries is generating a lot of interest?



Highlight it here
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
limanika
#692 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 8:48:03 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
murchr wrote:
limanika wrote:
BCG- I hear comparison of data btw BCG vaccinating and non BCG vaccinating countries is generating a lot of interest?



Highlight it here

https://m.khaleejtimes.c...-to-fight-covid-19-study
tycho
#693 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 9:06:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
We may need to simplify the model further so that if you get infected then you can only infect others tomorrow:

Day 0:1

Day 1: 2^3

Day 2: (2^3)×(2^3)=(2^6)

Day 3: (2^3)×(2^3)×(2^3)=(2^9)

Day 4: (2^3)×(2^3)×(2^3)×(2^3)=(2^12)

Inductively we can say for Day N:2^(3×N)

Meaning day5=(2^15)

Day 6=(2^18)

Day 7=(2^21)

By day 7 we should have the sum of all these days as active cases.

My math of course can be incorrect. Please check my assumptions and my calculation...

If I am correct, then a number like 2^21 for day 7 = 2,097,152 people.

Assuming the spread is of the magnitude stated - considering the model - do you suppose whole countries could go on lockdown and have such deaths as we are seeing?

Over to you, free citizen!
D32
#694 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 10:03:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/16/2012
Posts: 808
How do you get documents to allow you to do essential deliveries after 7pm?
They tried to bury us, they didn't know we were seeds.
sqft
#695 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 10:48:21 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/10/2015
Posts: 961
Location: Kenya
Proverbs 13:11 Dishonest money dwindles away, but whoever gathers money little by little makes it grow.
tycho
#696 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 11:55:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
Lolest! wrote:
This part is not getting enough attention
Nation wrote:
Ministry of Health Director General Dr Patrick Amoth said their preliminary modelling data showed that coronavirus cases by mid-April will hit 5,000, and rise to 10,000 by end of April in the absence of drastic intervention.


I have reason to doubt the correctness of this simulation. Going by the above model that we have generated, and assuming each person went to only 2 places:

Then day 7 would drop by say a factor of 256 giving us new infections of 8,192. If you do the same for all days then cumulative number has to be greater than 10K for a week.

Again if we assume a reproduction number of less than 2, tending towards 1; then we can't have an epidemic. And neither does the condition of going to only one new place with the same reproduction number suffice to have a pandemic.

Therefore the model used by the government is likely to be incorrect.
Shak
#697 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 11:58:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/22/2009
Posts: 2,449
Location: Africa
limanika wrote:
murchr wrote:
[quote=limanika]BCG- I hear comparison of data btw BCG vaccinating and non BCG vaccinating countries is generating a lot of interest?



Highlight it here

https://m.khaleejtimes.c...to-fight-covid-19-study[/quote]
Interesting. Europe and the US do not have mandatory BCG vaccination but most African countries do
tycho
#698 Posted : Tuesday, March 31, 2020 12:05:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
Shak wrote:
limanika wrote:
murchr wrote:
[quote=limanika]BCG- I hear comparison of data btw BCG vaccinating and non BCG vaccinating countries is generating a lot of interest?



Highlight it here

https://m.khaleejtimes.c...to-fight-covid-19-study[/quote]
Interesting. Europe and the US do not have mandatory BCG vaccination but most African countries do


Do the following countries have BCG vaccination: S Africa, China, S Korea, Uruguay and Tunisia?
sqft
#699 Posted : Tuesday, March 31, 2020 12:37:41 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/10/2015
Posts: 961
Location: Kenya
Proverbs 13:11 Dishonest money dwindles away, but whoever gathers money little by little makes it grow.
mpobiz
#700 Posted : Tuesday, March 31, 2020 1:49:59 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/10/2010
Posts: 2,264
I have been trying to localize this coversation in vein. Every time I enter this thread there is a profet of Doom still counting bodies in Italy or more recently trying to predict the next week's deaths here in this country.. The other one is just upset that there is no more reggae.
Why can't we just try to hypothesize more on some events that are happening around us.
1. This outbreak has been here for 4 months now. Our first known case is now 3 weeks old now. When you look at the kitui case and the embakasi case both being priests reveals that that this disease might have landed earlier than we thought.
2.in UK there were even airport baggage hundlers and airport staff had caught the virus. How many of our staff are victims? Did the government concentrated more on the arriving passangers and forgot that customs ,immigration staff, cleaners etc also needed screening?
3.we now have an official recoverd case and I now hear of 3more on the way.
We are also recording of many close contacts of victims who have tested negative.
Then I come across something called herd immunity. Some coutries in Europe adopted it but some like UK have back tracked .
Are we experiencing herd immunity without a pre planned strategy to deal with this virus?
Let's be local and try to seek some local solutions while we discover local ways to deal with this thing.
I was amazed to see someone here suggest that rivatex or the factory in kitui produce protective gear only to hear the head of medical services echoe the same.
Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
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