Lolest! wrote:This part is not getting enough attention
Nation wrote:Ministry of Health Director General Dr Patrick Amoth said their preliminary modelling data showed that coronavirus cases by mid-April will hit 5,000, and rise to 10,000 by end of April in the absence of drastic intervention.
A model based on conditions stated above - absence of drastic intervention and SARS-Cov-2 being taken to have a Reproduction no. of 2 can be represented by a tree diagram. You can take a piece of paper or any suitable method and trace the spread of the virus.
Let's also assume that each person goes to four unique places on any day. Then that individual will spread to 2^3. We can then assume that after spreading to 2^3 people that individual is isolated and gives zero infection. Same for the next person, like that... How long would we need to get 5000 people infected?
Then compare that number to the span of days counted by the government official. Then please share the answer we see if the figures provided can tally with such a model...
This is a rather simple model because once you do 2^3 you get quarantined. A truly unabated case would be quite complex in terms of the spreader getting to new places and infecting everyday till the whole population is covered.
So please let's try the simple model and see if the figures we find will tally with the ones given.