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Madness at the NSE
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lochaz-index
#2151 Posted : Tuesday, March 17, 2020 8:24:34 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
A 3000 points drop in the Dow was the cue to close my US shorts. If that doesn't get us the bottom then I don't know what will. It has now shed almost 10,000 points or 30% in three weeks. Will start scouting for long plays next week. Turning my gaze to Europe and Japan shorts which IMO have alot more falling to do.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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wukan
#2152 Posted : Tuesday, March 17, 2020 9:03:35 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
lochaz-index wrote:
A 3000 points drop in the Dow was the cue to close my US shorts. If that doesn't get us the bottom then I don't know what will. It has now shed almost 10,000 points or 30% in three weeks. Will start scouting for long plays next week. Turning my gaze to Europe and Japan shorts which IMO have alot more falling to do.


The pattern for US stocks is the Jaws of death/megaphone. It has to close like crocodile jaws, sharp and fast. The first stop for S&P is around 1800 the other stop is around 1200. 50% drop for Dow around 14000 would be a good first stop. The nation of fattest people on earth is about to go through the peak corona from April all the way to June. It won't be pretty
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VituVingiSana
#2153 Posted : Tuesday, March 17, 2020 9:43:10 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
slick wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Dow futures dump 1000 points as does the Nikkei. Dax futures down 500 points. It should be a particularly red day for the MIB when the European session kicks off. Will Schengen hold? The agreement may not see light of day when this crisis is over. Fed cuts FFR by 100bps points ahead of schedule in an attempt to stem the bleeding. Not looking good as spreads widen for treasuries and cross currency swaps. Full blown dollar liquidity crisis.

CBs have shown up with a knife to a gunfight...tough luck.


These first world CBs may print themselves into hyperinflation if this keeps up.The sheer number of the money printing liquidity jobs just keep getting bigger to unprecedented levels.I expect this QE to be stepped up aggressively and repo jobs to still continue in their trillions.

I forsee the Fed getting a mandate by Congress to just outright buy stocks and corporate bonds.Its already under discussion behind the scenes.Japanese and Swiss central banks already doing it and I suspect the Fed will join this ludicrous policy and European Central Bank already buys corporate bonds and may join the rest in purchasing Euro stocks.

CBs are chasing the wind here. Buying of stocks is neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things. You can't manufacture a bull market out of thin air or much less so an economic recovery. BoJ has been at it for 20 years with various QE programs yet the Nikkei is more than 50% off its highs. The Japanese economy has been in comatose/collapsing and is literally way worse off than when QE started. The cycle must run to its completion as the market always wins in the end.

The real crisis is what occurs on main street in the form of job layoffs, bankruptcies, deleveraging, credit seize ups etc. Yellen once had the audacity to proclaim that we would never see another recession in our lifetimes. It is simply jaw dropping how much they believed the Keynesian (abenomics) hype about stimulating the economy.


On the other hand restarting economies from zero would be really hard. In worst case scenarios some states may not even survive the bankruptcies. You may need to start from a "Mad max" scenario. Bringing back the social order will be tall order(Somalia is a good example). CBs will keep going even if they have to buy every asset.

When you find time research on how Iceland navigated the GFC and came out stronger. All what central banks achieve with bailouts and monetary experiments is weakening the economic system further and setting it up for a more calamitous collapse.

Applause Applause Applause Sometimes there are fires that are "natural" and they clean out the dead wood. I am not talking of man-made fires.
In forests, old (dead) trees are burnt. The ashes fertilize new trees and plants. Younger/healthier trees may even survive the fire.
In the Savannah, the grass burns and fresh plants/grass start growing from the seeds and roots that were safely underground. Some seeds need the heat to sprout.
Man tried to stop/prevent these fires but nature takes its course. What happens is that when the fire does start, it is terrible and larger than it should be.

A purging of the financial system of the rot will cause pain but it is ultimately good for us.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#2154 Posted : Tuesday, March 17, 2020 10:12:10 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
A 3000 points drop in the Dow was the cue to close my US shorts. If that doesn't get us the bottom then I don't know what will. It has now shed almost 10,000 points or 30% in three weeks. Will start scouting for long plays next week. Turning my gaze to Europe and Japan shorts which IMO have alot more falling to do.


The pattern for US stocks is the Jaws of death/megaphone. It has to close like crocodile jaws, sharp and fast. The first stop for S&P is around 1800 the other stop is around 1200. 50% drop for Dow around 14000 would be a good first stop. The nation of fattest people on earth is about to go through the peak corona from April all the way to June. It won't be pretty
That nation also has some of the smartest people who are innovative and take risks.
My phones run either iOS or Android.
My computers run either MacOS or Windows.
Then there is Netflix.
When the flights start, I will likely fly in a Boeing.

I think they will be fine.

Now, hapo. Kwenu. d'oh!

Tourism - dead. It will take some (1 year?) time to get back to 1mn tourists.
Horticultural exports - huge reduction during the lockdown.
Remittances - Which is the #1 source country?
SGR - Subsidies and loan repayments
BBI
2022

Not sure when we will get out of the hole! And will we, in our lifetime, ever see the highs we saw in the Kibaki era?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, March 17, 2020 10:13 AM | Reason: Not specified
wukan
#2155 Posted : Tuesday, March 17, 2020 10:56:45 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
VituVingiSana wrote:
[That nation also has some of the smartest people who are innovative and take risks.
My phones run either iOS or Android.
My computers run either MacOS or Windows.
Then there is Netflix.
When the flights start, I will likely fly in a Boeing.

I think they will be fine.

Now, hapo. Kwenu. d'oh!

Tourism - dead. It will take some (1 year?) time to get back to 1mn tourists.
Horticultural exports - huge reduction during the lockdown.
Remittances - Which is the #1 source country?
SGR - Subsidies and loan repayments
BBI
2022

Not sure when we will get out of the hole! And will we, in our lifetime, ever see the highs we saw in the Kibaki era?


Oh America will bounce back stronger even if they have to go to war with China for bringing them what Trump called Chinese flu.

wazuans tried our best to warn Uhuru & co but they didn't listen:-

in 2017 we said fiscal consolidation now they don't have room for fiscal stimulus, eurobond yields are shooting through, diaspora remittances will tank. Don't do rate caps because you will strangle private sector

We said do BRT and stop thinking matatus are public transport they didn't listen now the CS transport is begging those jalopies be washed after every trip.

We said focus on nairobi basic services like water, no BBI nonsense was more important. Now we need running water to wash hands.

Lastly I said the economic malaise will last a decade plus

Our corona peak will around July August we will discuss it then. Now we discuss America and Europe
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lochaz-index
#2156 Posted : Tuesday, March 17, 2020 12:03:19 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
A 3000 points drop in the Dow was the cue to close my US shorts. If that doesn't get us the bottom then I don't know what will. It has now shed almost 10,000 points or 30% in three weeks. Will start scouting for long plays next week. Turning my gaze to Europe and Japan shorts which IMO have alot more falling to do.


The pattern for US stocks is the Jaws of death/megaphone. It has to close like crocodile jaws, sharp and fast. The first stop for S&P is around 1800 the other stop is around 1200. 50% drop for Dow around 14000 would be a good first stop. The nation of fattest people on earth is about to go through the peak corona from April all the way to June. It won't be pretty

I've rode the dragon long enough and do not intend to stretch my luck. I've had more than my fair share of ulcers inducing/heart stopping/gut wrenching moments in the last three weeks to last me a lifetime. Besides I'm also reducing the correlation between my trades for a better hedge cover.

The fall has been too fast too furious to imply a sharp turn around. China was gut-punched for two months but is rebounding hard in March. While not the healthiest of economies atm, US should rebound as well, the question is how soon and how strong.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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slick
#2157 Posted : Tuesday, March 17, 2020 12:19:55 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
VituVingiSana wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
slick wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Dow futures dump 1000 points as does the Nikkei. Dax futures down 500 points. It should be a particularly red day for the MIB when the European session kicks off. Will Schengen hold? The agreement may not see light of day when this crisis is over. Fed cuts FFR by 100bps points ahead of schedule in an attempt to stem the bleeding. Not looking good as spreads widen for treasuries and cross currency swaps. Full blown dollar liquidity crisis.

CBs have shown up with a knife to a gunfight...tough luck.


These first world CBs may print themselves into hyperinflation if this keeps up.The sheer number of the money printing liquidity jobs just keep getting bigger to unprecedented levels.I expect this QE to be stepped up aggressively and repo jobs to still continue in their trillions.

I forsee the Fed getting a mandate by Congress to just outright buy stocks and corporate bonds.Its already under discussion behind the scenes.Japanese and Swiss central banks already doing it and I suspect the Fed will join this ludicrous policy and European Central Bank already buys corporate bonds and may join the rest in purchasing Euro stocks.

CBs are chasing the wind here. Buying of stocks is neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things. You can't manufacture a bull market out of thin air or much less so an economic recovery. BoJ has been at it for 20 years with various QE programs yet the Nikkei is more than 50% off its highs. The Japanese economy has been in comatose/collapsing and is literally way worse off than when QE started. The cycle must run to its completion as the market always wins in the end.

The real crisis is what occurs on main street in the form of job layoffs, bankruptcies, deleveraging, credit seize ups etc. Yellen once had the audacity to proclaim that we would never see another recession in our lifetimes. It is simply jaw dropping how much they believed the Keynesian (abenomics) hype about stimulating the economy.


On the other hand restarting economies from zero would be really hard. In worst case scenarios some states may not even survive the bankruptcies. You may need to start from a "Mad max" scenario. Bringing back the social order will be tall order(Somalia is a good example). CBs will keep going even if they have to buy every asset.

When you find time research on how Iceland navigated the GFC and came out stronger. All what central banks achieve with bailouts and monetary experiments is weakening the economic system further and setting it up for a more calamitous collapse.

Applause Applause Applause Sometimes there are fires that are "natural" and they clean out the dead wood. I am not talking of man-made fires.
In forests, old (dead) trees are burnt. The ashes fertilize new trees and plants. Younger/healthier trees may even survive the fire.
In the Savannah, the grass burns and fresh plants/grass start growing from the seeds and roots that were safely underground. Some seeds need the heat to sprout.
Man tried to stop/prevent these fires but nature takes its course. What happens is that when the fire does start, it is terrible and larger than it should be.

A purging of the financial system of the rot will cause pain but it is ultimately good for us.



@VituVingiSana.Exactly spot on.The deadwood of CBs induced money printing bubbles needs to burn out but CBs wont allow a detox from monetary heroin.They will fight to the bitter end and some punks economist are already touting that all production and government affairs should be financed by money printing.Want to build a bridge?No worries,just print the money.This silly policy is called Modern Monetary Theory.Print the money to provide universal free health care,education,send cheques to all citizens periodically.I suspect they will end there before it now really collapses in a much worse manner.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, March 17, 2020 12:25 PM | Reason: Not specified
slick
#2158 Posted : Tuesday, March 17, 2020 12:23:56 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
lochaz-index wrote:
A 3000 points drop in the Dow was the cue to close my US shorts. If that doesn't get us the bottom then I don't know what will. It has now shed almost 10,000 points or 30% in three weeks. Will start scouting for long plays next week. Turning my gaze to Europe and Japan shorts which IMO have alot more falling to do.


Shorting the market in the last 3 weeks has been exceptionally lucrative.Never have I made as much money as quickly as shorting this bubble market.Rode most of the bubble the way up and short the way down.Just short all bounces.I dont think the decline is done.Still lots of air to come out of this bubble lets see if declines hit 50% like in 2008.I think it could fall even greater than 50% this time.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
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wukan
#2159 Posted : Tuesday, March 17, 2020 6:25:32 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
A 3000 points drop in the Dow was the cue to close my US shorts. If that doesn't get us the bottom then I don't know what will. It has now shed almost 10,000 points or 30% in three weeks. Will start scouting for long plays next week. Turning my gaze to Europe and Japan shorts which IMO have alot more falling to do.


The pattern for US stocks is the Jaws of death/megaphone. It has to close like crocodile jaws, sharp and fast. The first stop for S&P is around 1800 the other stop is around 1200. 50% drop for Dow around 14000 would be a good first stop. The nation of fattest people on earth is about to go through the peak corona from April all the way to June. It won't be pretty


This guy makes the almost the same conclusion as above

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAISD13O0Pc
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lochaz-index
#2160 Posted : Wednesday, March 18, 2020 9:28:20 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
NSE 20 share index ended the day at 2057.96


The market should ideally bounce off this level for a relief rally but given what has transpired elsewhere we could be looking at sub-2000 today if the selling persists.

The bounce is on. Only the NSE20 closed slightly lower yesterday at 2052 but all the other indices were marginally up.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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