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First World Markets Shenanigans
rwitre
#61 Posted : Friday, March 13, 2020 6:34:46 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 507
Location: Nairobi
UNLIMITED LIQUIDITY

US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: Fed and Treasury: Link

Quote:

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin vowed on Friday that the United States government would do whatever was necessary to ensure that markets have “almost unlimited” liquidity.


ECB's Villeroy: We are making unlimited liquidity available to banks so they can lend: Link

Germany Lines Up $600 Billion Virus Aid as EU Backs Stimulus: Link

Norway: Norges Bank offers banks unlimited liquidity at the key rate – Nordea: Link
slick
#62 Posted : Saturday, March 14, 2020 1:50:55 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
rwitre wrote:
UNLIMITED LIQUIDITY

US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: Fed and Treasury: Link

Quote:

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin vowed on Friday that the United States government would do whatever was necessary to ensure that markets have “almost unlimited” liquidity.


ECB's Villeroy: We are making unlimited liquidity available to banks so they can lend: Link

Germany Lines Up $600 Billion Virus Aid as EU Backs Stimulus: Link

Norway: Norges Bank offers banks unlimited liquidity at the key rate – Nordea: Link


Yeah TOTAL NUTS!!Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Yesterday's Fed repo injection hit new records.$500 billion in a three-month repo plus another $500 billion in a one-month repo in addition to $175 billion in overnight repo and $45 billion in two-week term repo.Lets not forget they are also buying 60 billion/month in short term treasuries.Now they are buying the entire bond maturity yield curve from 3 month t-bills to 30 year bonds.This is UNPRECEDENTED.Earlier in the week the 30 year bond market froze up with no takers so the Fed had to come in and buy the bonds to ensure no failed auction.Yet another record.Despite all the Fed purchases of treasuries,bonds sold off with the 10 year yield rising from its record lows of 0.318% to hit intraday highs of 1.01% yesterday.A whole new nightmarish scenario where stocks,corporate bonds and government treasuries are selling off as investors flee the major asset classes and move to cash thus the US dollar rise with dollar index back up to 98.15.Irony that dollar is rising yet the Fed is printing trillions daily to pump into markets then again Dollar is the reserve currency so they get away with it for now.Fed has no choice but to buy all these bonds.Forget the carnage of the stock market and corporate bond market,distress in the government treasury market would be the ultimate cataclysm as its by far the largest asset class in the world and threatens the very solvency of the United States government.Eventually,this bond market will unravel completely but Fed delaying the inevitable.

Interesting price action in the stock market.Before market open futures hit limit up and Dow opened over 1,000 points up but sold off massively to retrace almost all these gains despite the over 1.2 trillion repo injection before market open explained above.I was lucky to short that first decline.Then the market meandered with large up and downswings then Trump went to the airwaves and announced a national emergency and promised to bailout everyone ie the oil industry by pledging to buy more oil for the strategic oil reserves,freeze interest payments on the 1.5 trillion student loan debt monstrosity among other measures.So where is the government going to get this money for bailouts.Simple,the treasury will issue more bonds and the Fed will buy them creating even more fiat dollars to buy.Due to the Trump declarations,all the major indices moved up about 7% in the last 30 minutes of trading.Now that's just nuts.There were several 5% swings in the indices.Unprecedented volatility.Dow had its single biggest day gain on Friday closing up 1985 points after suffering its biggest point loss in history down 2352 points the prior Thursday.As usual the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) used the repo trillions to buy back the market and shorts were forced to cover fueling the rise even more.PPT likes to buy the market at Friday's close to give some sense of confidence over the weekend so that markets dont panic sell on Monday.PPT wants to ensure Dow doesnt drop below 20,000 otherwise a new wave of panic selling will result.Even Dow 15,000 is a bubble and Dow should fall to at least 10,000 to have any semblance of fair value.

Now the Fed is under crazy pressure to cut rates again next week by 75 or even 100 basis points taking the Fed funds rate to zero.Expect even larger trillion dollar repo dumps next week.There is also talk that the Federal Reserve Act should be changed by Congress to give the Fed authority to buy corporate bonds and even stocks like they do in Japan and Switzerland.Some quarters are talking of government stop collecting taxes to give a bailout to the populace and Trump is actually proposing to scrap payroll tax for the rest of the year.So if that happens,how does the government fund itself.Simple,Fed just prints the money to fund government.That ludicrous policy is called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and some major economists and even some in the Bernie Sanders camp are advocating for it.

By the way HongKong is considering giving every adult citizen 10,000 HongKong Dollars (1,200 USD) and Australia is to give 750 Australian Dollars to 6.5 million citizens as a coronavirus bailout.That is what is known as helicopter money.

Developed nations are living in lalala landLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#63 Posted : Monday, March 16, 2020 2:27:59 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
DAMN Sad Sad FED CUTS RATES BY 100 BASIS POINTS BACK TO ZERO LAUNCHES 700 BILLION OF QUANTITATIVE EASING STOCKS FUTURES SELL OFF REGARDLESS TO LIMIT DOWN



Wolololo!Fed cuts rates back to zero ( rates will now be targeted at 0%-0.25% down from a target range of 1% to 1.25%.),launches overt QE (over and above the repos and the purchase of short term securities what they started in September 2019 which they denied as QE but market knew it was QE).The quantitative easing will take the form of $500 billion of Treasurys and $200 billion of agency-backed mortgage securities. The Fed said the purchases will begin Monday with a $40 billion installment.

The Fed also cut reserve requirements for thousands of banks to zero.Facing highly disrupted financial markets, the Fed also slashed the rate of emergency lending at the discount window for banks by 125 bps to 0.25%, and lengthened the term of loans to 90 days.

The Fed lowered the rate on swap line loans with foreign banks and extended the period for such loans.


WOOOOI!Despite all this stock futures sold off and hit limit down yet again with Dow futures stuck at -1041.Markets want more $$$$$$.More trillions to be injected into markets daily possibly with no effect.

I forsee the Fed getting a mandate by Congress to just outright buy stocks and corporate bonds.Its already under discussion behind the scenes.Japanese and Swiss central banks already doing it and I suspect the Fed will join this ludicrous policy.European Central Bank already buys corporate bonds and may join the rest in purchasing Euro stocks.

God help us.As I suspected all these money printing liquidity injections wont help the current situation and this could be the end game of the debt based fiat fractional reserve banking system.These first world central banks may print their currencies to hyperinflation if this keeps up.

Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#64 Posted : Monday, March 16, 2020 4:30:33 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
TRADING HALTED IMMEDIATELY AFTER MARKET OPEN AS S&P 500 OPENS DOWN 8.14%.

Third time in the last 7 days



I took a short position on Friday and waiting to collect serious $$$$$ Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly once markets resume after 15 minutes
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
murchr
#65 Posted : Monday, March 16, 2020 5:12:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
ITS HOT OUT THERE
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
slick
#66 Posted : Monday, March 16, 2020 5:21:03 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
murchr wrote:
ITS HOT OUT THERE


Shorts are killing it especially those using leveraged derivative trades.

As they say,wealth isnt destroyed but transferred from one entity to another.Panicked longs transferring wealth to shorts and greatest wealth
transfer occurs in panicking crashing markets.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#67 Posted : Monday, March 16, 2020 7:59:37 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
US COMMERCIAL PAPER MARKET FREEZES UP!!smile smile

Two weeks ago the corporate bond market froze up.Treasuries had record bid/ask prices with the 30 year auction nearly failing last week needing a Fed intervention.Now the commercial paper market has frozen up needing a Fed bailout.



https://www.ft.com/conte...-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75

It just keeps getting worse.The Fed will just have to buy everything.Now US banks wont be engaging in share buybacks putting even more pressure on stocks
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
wukan
#68 Posted : Tuesday, March 17, 2020 7:21:28 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
The best thing happened is that Trump has given up on talking up the market. Let the market take care of itself. It will now find its bottom. The market had become blackhole
slick
#69 Posted : Tuesday, March 17, 2020 7:32:09 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
slick wrote:
US COMMERCIAL PAPER MARKET FREEZES UP!!smile smile

Two weeks ago the corporate bond market froze up.Treasuries had record bid/ask prices with the 30 year auction nearly failing last week needing a Fed intervention.Now the commercial paper market has frozen up needing a Fed bailout.



https://www.ft.com/conte...-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75

It just keeps getting worse.The Fed will just have to buy everything.Now US banks wont be engaging in share buybacks putting even more pressure on stocks


Wow everyday new twists and records.The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 had their worst day since the “Black Monday” crash of 1987, falling 12.93% and 11.98%, respectively. Also all the 3 indices recorded their biggest point drops ever.The Nasdaq Composite had its biggest one-day percentage plunge ever, tumbling 12.32%.

All this carnage despite the Fed cutting rates by 1% to Fed funds rate being between 0-0.25% and launching 700 billion of QE and undertaking 500 billion of overnight repos and 45 billion of 2 week repos.Just getting too insane.

Now futures market are up with Dow futures up 700 points when Trump indicated a bailout is coming.Looks very tempting to short that dead cat bounce.So where will the bailout cash come from?Simple.The Fed will just print the money as always.


Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#70 Posted : Tuesday, March 17, 2020 7:46:34 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
wukan wrote:
The best thing happened is that Trump has given up on talking up the market. Let the market take care of itself. It will now find its bottom. The market had become blackhole



Just imagine the magnitude of the catastrophe.98% of all the gains in the stock market ever since Trump was inaugurated in January 2017 is gone.38 months (3 years and 2 months) of gains evaporated in 3 weeks.By the end of the week all gains during the Trump Presidency and even more will be lost.

There is talk of closing the markets to prevent further destruction.Don't see any other way out other than Fed outright buying stocks for just nominal gains illusions.Even the Wall Street banks have halted buying their own stocks so Fed may have to step in here and just shamelessly buy stocks outright just like in Japan and Switzerland but this needs Congressional approval.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
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