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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 An extended fifth wave(red wave (v)) to the downside. A dizzying drop toward sub-2000. Once we have a bottom the reversal will be sharp as well Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mnandii wrote:An extended fifth wave(red wave (v)) to the downside. A dizzying drop toward sub-2000. Once we have a bottom the reversal will be sharp as well Agreed. I had pegged sub-2000 to come in Q2 or Q3 but Mr. Market does not want to wait that long. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:An extended fifth wave(red wave (v)) to the downside. A dizzying drop toward sub-2000. Once we have a bottom the reversal will be sharp as well Agreed. I had pegged sub-2000 to come in Q2 or Q3 but Mr. Market does not want to wait that long. That reversal is where we need to look out for. I will buy some shares - Coop (11-12), KCB and Equity (35-38) (speculation) once they hit my target prices.  In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 Equity Bank today 16th March. Yet I was told how Kenyan banks have fundamentals to support them! Expect more downside. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Angelica _ann wrote:lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:An extended fifth wave(red wave (v)) to the downside. A dizzying drop toward sub-2000. Once we have a bottom the reversal will be sharp as well Agreed. I had pegged sub-2000 to come in Q2 or Q3 but Mr. Market does not want to wait that long. That reversal is where we need to look out for. I will buy some shares - Coop (11-12), KCB and Equity (35-38) (speculation) once they hit my target prices. Keep Cash. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 FTSE NSE KENYA 15. Proper fundamental analysis! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 I expect Equity to go sub 20 soon. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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USDKES AT 105 Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Back in July 2015. The waves in OIL were clear. The forecast was clear> Oil would fall. Post 526mnandii wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Indeed, that 4400 mark will officially confirm the bear is in town not flirting with the market as is the case now. As for the KES am still of opinion that things are going to get worse by around September once cost push inflation sets in proper unless somehow oil prices take a serious plunge between now and then. Unknown factors which may also come into play are the fallouts from Greece situation and the Chinese stock markets. The snowball effect from those two could trigger another full on global crisis. Oil Price will Fall Definitely!  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:Back in July 2015. The waves in OIL were clear. The forecast was clear> Oil would fall. Post 526mnandii wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Indeed, that 4400 mark will officially confirm the bear is in town not flirting with the market as is the case now. As for the KES am still of opinion that things are going to get worse by around September once cost push inflation sets in proper unless somehow oil prices take a serious plunge between now and then. Unknown factors which may also come into play are the fallouts from Greece situation and the Chinese stock markets. The snowball effect from those two could trigger another full on global crisis. Oil Price will Fall Definitely! So it took 4.5 years. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/17/2018 Posts: 173 Location: Mars
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VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Back in July 2015. The waves in OIL were clear. The forecast was clear> Oil would fall. Post 526mnandii wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Indeed, that 4400 mark will officially confirm the bear is in town not flirting with the market as is the case now. As for the KES am still of opinion that things are going to get worse by around September once cost push inflation sets in proper unless somehow oil prices take a serious plunge between now and then. Unknown factors which may also come into play are the fallouts from Greece situation and the Chinese stock markets. The snowball effect from those two could trigger another full on global crisis. Oil Price will Fall Definitely! So it took 4.5 years. Broken clock?
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/8/2018 Posts: 507 Location: Nairobi
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Extraterrestrial wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Back in July 2015. The waves in OIL were clear. The forecast was clear> Oil would fall. Post 526mnandii wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Indeed, that 4400 mark will officially confirm the bear is in town not flirting with the market as is the case now. As for the KES am still of opinion that things are going to get worse by around September once cost push inflation sets in proper unless somehow oil prices take a serious plunge between now and then. Unknown factors which may also come into play are the fallouts from Greece situation and the Chinese stock markets. The snowball effect from those two could trigger another full on global crisis. Oil Price will Fall Definitely! So it took 4.5 years. Broken clock? Read my mind 
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mnandii wrote:I expect Equity to go sub 20 soon. Music to my ears. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mnandii wrote:USDKES AT 105 It had defied expectations for a longtime with lots of sideways action. Sudden depreciation can't be ruled out. Double bind for KE economy. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,590
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lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:USDKES AT 105 It had defied expectations for a longtime with lots of sideways action. Sudden depreciation can't be ruled out. Double bind for KE economy. I don't think USD will sustain the sprint. US is about to enter shutdown as the cases rises.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:USDKES AT 105 It had defied expectations for a longtime with lots of sideways action. Sudden depreciation can't be ruled out. Double bind for KE economy. I don't think USD will sustain the sprint. US is about to enter shutdown as the cases rises. The force behind the USD turbo charge is not the relative strength of the US economy vis a vis the rest of the world but the credit seize ups and liquidity/dollar shortages outside the US. Those issues are not going to subside anytime soon and will get much worse once the first wave of mass defaults take place. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Extraterrestrial wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Back in July 2015. The waves in OIL were clear. The forecast was clear> Oil would fall. Post 526mnandii wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Indeed, that 4400 mark will officially confirm the bear is in town not flirting with the market as is the case now. As for the KES am still of opinion that things are going to get worse by around September once cost push inflation sets in proper unless somehow oil prices take a serious plunge between now and then. Unknown factors which may also come into play are the fallouts from Greece situation and the Chinese stock markets. The snowball effect from those two could trigger another full on global crisis. Oil Price will Fall Definitely! So it took 4.5 years. Broken clock? Do you see the title LONG TERM WAVES? Open your faculties Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:Extraterrestrial wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Back in July 2015. The waves in OIL were clear. The forecast was clear> Oil would fall. Post 526mnandii wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Indeed, that 4400 mark will officially confirm the bear is in town not flirting with the market as is the case now. As for the KES am still of opinion that things are going to get worse by around September once cost push inflation sets in proper unless somehow oil prices take a serious plunge between now and then. Unknown factors which may also come into play are the fallouts from Greece situation and the Chinese stock markets. The snowball effect from those two could trigger another full on global crisis. Oil Price will Fall Definitely! So it took 4.5 years. Broken clock? Do you see the title LONG TERM WAVES? Open your faculties Relax, people! Relax! Anyway, here is my LONG-TERM (but without a timeframe or period) non-charting view. WTI was $23 on 22 March 2020 Brent was $29 on 22 March 2020 Oil Price will Definitely Rise! [Timeframe or period not specified]If CoronaVirus (or any others) hasn't killed us by 2025, let's check in Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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First Waves of a New Bear MarketQuote:The Beginning of Deflation Quote:The decline in asset markets that Elliott Wave International has been forecasting has begun in a most dramatic fashion with stock markets around the globe plummeting over a very short time scale. Some might call it a crash, others a panic. We call it the first waves of a new bear market that should take the major stock indices much lower in coming months. It's not just stocks, though. Oil, metals, junk bonds and muni bonds are all declining, too.
This asset-price deflation is a sure sign that a contraction in the economy is coming and will inevitably lead to a period of debt reduction -- certainly in the private sector -- and that is what is known as Debt-Deflation. Quote:Our fractal-based model expects the economy to go into a long slump, and so we anticipate that deflation will start to become the dominant theme in the markets. Read And Watch Video HereConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Extraterrestrial wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Back in July 2015. The waves in OIL were clear. The forecast was clear> Oil would fall. Post 526mnandii wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?
It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities. We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this! 2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.
MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.
USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.
I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
Indeed, that 4400 mark will officially confirm the bear is in town not flirting with the market as is the case now. As for the KES am still of opinion that things are going to get worse by around September once cost push inflation sets in proper unless somehow oil prices take a serious plunge between now and then. Unknown factors which may also come into play are the fallouts from Greece situation and the Chinese stock markets. The snowball effect from those two could trigger another full on global crisis. Oil Price will Fall Definitely! So it took 4.5 years. Broken clock? Do you see the title LONG TERM WAVES? Open your faculties Relax, people! Relax! Anyway, here is my LONG-TERM (but without a timeframe or period) non-charting view. WTI was $23 on 22 March 2020 Brent was $29 on 22 March 2020 Oil Price will Definitely Rise! [Timeframe or period not specified]If CoronaVirus (or any others) hasn't killed us by 2025, let's check in Ohhhh  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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