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Portfolio 2020
piedpiper
#1 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 12:23:30 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/21/2017
Posts: 48
Hi fellow members, need your advice:
I have 60,000 shares of KPLC at an ABP of 9.76 and 70,000 shares of KENGEN at an ABP of 9.02. Should I continue holding or should I bail out?

KPLC is down by 76%. What a failure of a company. A reminder never to invest in GOK related entities.

Anyway, waiting for you guys' advice on how to get out of the above conundrum.
Life is a beach and I'm just playing in the sand
sparkly
#2 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 6:44:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
piedpiper wrote:
Hi fellow members, need your advice:
I have 60,000 shares of KPLC at an ABP of 9.76 and 70,000 shares of KENGEN at an ABP of 9.02. Should I continue holding or should I bail out?

KPLC is down by 76%. What a failure of a company. A reminder never to invest in GOK related entities.

Anyway, waiting for you guys' advice on how to get out of the above conundrum.


1. To sell or keep, there will be regrets either way. If you keep, you might miss the opportunity to invest in better investments. If you sell in this bear you might miss the market recovery.

2. The nature of stocks investment is of variable return. Stocks go up and down depending on company perfomance and general market conditions. The best strategy is therefore to pick solid companies under favorable market conditions and remain invested long enough to make a return.

3. Back to your dilemma. Why did you invest in these two stocks? What has changed? Are the changes likely to reverse? Your answers to this questions will help you to make your decision.

4. Lastly, pray on the lord to deliver us from this bear.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Ebenyo
#3 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 6:51:32 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
piedpiper wrote:
Hi fellow members, need your advice:
I have 60,000 shares of KPLC at an ABP of 9.76 and 70,000 shares of KENGEN at an ABP of 9.02. Should I continue holding or should I bail out?

KPLC is down by 76%. What a failure of a company. A reminder never to invest in GOK related entities.

Anyway, waiting for you guys' advice on how to get out of the above conundrum.





I will advise you to average down your ABP.
After it has come down completely,get rid of Kenya power.
But keep hold of Kengen for the meantime cause there is a dividend coming then get rid of it also afterwards
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Monk
#4 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 7:08:08 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2009
Posts: 256
Ebenyo wrote:
piedpiper wrote:
Hi fellow members, need your advice:
I have 60,000 shares of KPLC at an ABP of 9.76 and 70,000 shares of KENGEN at an ABP of 9.02. Should I continue holding or should I bail out?

KPLC is down by 76%. What a failure of a company. A reminder never to invest in GOK related entities.

Anyway, waiting for you guys' advice on how to get out of the above conundrum.





I will advise you to average down your ABP.
After it has come down completely,get rid of Kenya power.
But keep hold of Kengen for the meantime cause there is a dividend coming then get rid of it also afterwards


Averaging down on a questionable stock Vs buying stable counters with better returns. If the objective is to recoup your losses, which of these paths is more likely to help you achieve your goal?
Extraterrestrial
#5 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 8:30:09 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/17/2018
Posts: 173
Location: Mars
If you take a loss by selling, you'd be experiencing near total CERTAIN wipe out.

If you hold, there is POSSIBILITY of further haircut but there is also a chance of recouping your losses.

Whatever the case, its unwise to sell after a deep move against you, especially where the companies are monopolies or market leaders and the market is bearish.

Where a company is likely to go into administration, it may be wise to salvage what you can. Such an example is KQ, which can even be put under administration tomorrow.

Both the counters you have invested in do not seem to have management that prioritizes the needs of shareholders. It is therefore UNWISE to average down and infact a gamble.

The amount is not significant so you should just look into buying sound companies like KCB, Equity, Safaricom and COOP at low prices. Those will give you dividends and you can reduce exposure gradually as follows:

1. Writing off against future capital gains on realised sales

2. Writing off against dividend recieved
Fyatu
#6 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 9:07:46 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
heheheheh...i feel you my guy. In other jurisdictions utilities are solid companies to invest in.Indeed even hapa Kenya, these two consist of NSE20 index which implies that they are one of the bluest of the so called bluechips.

However, hapa Kenya the NSE casino is highly rigged and corruption is rife. If you are mutu ya mashinani like me, you definitely know that even a simple task like reading post-paid meters by Kenya power staff is a problem. They are lazy. Kenya power can only save itself by replacing all postpaid meters with prepaid ones.(but i digress).

You have two options:

1. Do nothing. Don't sell and don't buy. Leave them there and write them off as bad investments and move-on to sure bet investments like say opening a duka in your neighbourhood or buying a tuk-tuk/nduthi or buying land.

2. Buy more. Note i'm deliberately avoiding the term averaging-down. Buy more of these two. They are monopolies and require heavy capital to build therefore they will remain monopolies for very many years to come. Indeed it is a no brainer that demand for electricity will continue to grow. Buy more. If possible increase your holdings in Kenya power and Kengen to 1 million shares each. The mantra in most casinos is go hard or go home and the NSE casino is no exception.If it is getting burnt then you better burn beyond recognition. Be like Donald Trump and make decisions quickly and stick to them no matter the doubts(kesi baadaye).


Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
sparkly
#7 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 10:10:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
1. Averaging down is like prison. Imagine X and Y are each sentenced to 20 years in jail. To start with, each has one term averaging 20 years.

2. X is a good inmate during his term. For good conduct, his sentence is reduced by 5 years, then by a further 5 years. Consequently, he serves one term averaging 10 years.

3. Y on the other side is an unruly inmate. For offences committed while in prison, he is sentenced to 2 extra terms of 5 years each. Consequently, he serves three terms averaging 10 years each.

4. Both X and Y serve terms averaging 10 years but are not on the same position. In total, X loses 10 years and Y loses 30 years.

5. X is the investor who averages down on a good share. For the reason that the share is assured of going back to the former highs, X ends up with more shares at a lower cost. Y is the investor who averages down on a bad share. The share has no chances of going back to the former highers and new investment money is ultimately eroded or lost completely. He losses 30 years instead of his initial 20 years.
Life is short. Live passionately.
mufasa
#8 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 10:11:15 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 202
piedpiper wrote:
Hi fellow members, need your advice:
I have 60,000 shares of KPLC at an ABP of 9.76 and 70,000 shares of KENGEN at an ABP of 9.02. Should I continue holding or should I bail out?

KPLC is down by 76%. What a failure of a company. A reminder never to invest in GOK related entities.

Anyway, waiting for you guys' advice on how to get out of the above conundrum.


@PIEDPIPER, "What do we say to the God of Death?" The answer, as Arya knows all too well, is, "Not today."

Both counters are primed for a recovery with KenGEN more likely. Hang in there and if possible load up on KenGEN for quicker recovery.

Then next time, have a top/bottom threshold.
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
Angelica _ann
#9 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 10:24:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
Never average down on a share with poor fundamentals, lessons from KQ and MSC. Never ever. You are better off selling and going for shares with strong fundamentals - dont dig a hole you cannot fill.

Today if you sold the KPLC shares and bought into KCB/Safaricom or I&M/NCBA, am sure in 2 years you will be better of than you are now.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
mulla
#10 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 12:27:44 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/15/2013
Posts: 301
Angelica _ann wrote:
Never average down on a share with poor fundamentals, lessons from KQ and MSC. Never ever. You are better off selling and going for shares with strong fundamentals - dont dig a hole you cannot fill.

Today if you sold the KPLC shares and bought into KCB/Safaricom or I&M/NCBA, am sure in 2 years you will be better of than you are now.


I learnt that lesson of averaging down the hard way with KQ and in business. If you find yourself in a bad investment with dim future prospects, BAIL OUT. Dust yourself, swallow your pride and look for better investments. You will save yourself a lot of time and money in future.
deadpoet
#11 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 1:14:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/27/2006
Posts: 503
mulla wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Never average down on a share with poor fundamentals, lessons from KQ and MSC. Never ever. You are better off selling and going for shares with strong fundamentals - dont dig a hole you cannot fill.

Today if you sold the KPLC shares and bought into KCB/Safaricom or I&M/NCBA, am sure in 2 years you will be better of than you are now.


I learnt that lesson of averaging down the hard way with KQ and in business. If you find yourself in a bad investment with dim future prospects, BAIL OUT. Dust yourself, swallow your pride and look for better investments. You will save yourself a lot of time and money in future.


Also do the math first. How much do you have to commit to average down to the current price?
obiero
#12 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 1:54:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,516
Location: nairobi
deadpoet wrote:
mulla wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Never average down on a share with poor fundamentals, lessons from KQ and MSC. Never ever. You are better off selling and going for shares with strong fundamentals - dont dig a hole you cannot fill.

Today if you sold the KPLC shares and bought into KCB/Safaricom or I&M/NCBA, am sure in 2 years you will be better of than you are now.


I learnt that lesson of averaging down the hard way with KQ and in business. If you find yourself in a bad investment with dim future prospects, BAIL OUT. Dust yourself, swallow your pride and look for better investments. You will save yourself a lot of time and money in future.


Also do the math first. How much do you have to commit to average down to the current price?

Indeed. It's a science

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
sparkly
#13 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 9:09:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
obiero wrote:
deadpoet wrote:
mulla wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Never average down on a share with poor fundamentals, lessons from KQ and MSC. Never ever. You are better off selling and going for shares with strong fundamentals - dont dig a hole you cannot fill.

Today if you sold the KPLC shares and bought into KCB/Safaricom or I&M/NCBA, am sure in 2 years you will be better of than you are now.


I learnt that lesson of averaging down the hard way with KQ and in business. If you find yourself in a bad investment with dim future prospects, BAIL OUT. Dust yourself, swallow your pride and look for better investments. You will save yourself a lot of time and money in future.


Also do the math first. How much do you have to commit to average down to the current price?

Indeed. It's a science


You have alot of experience in this science smile
Life is short. Live passionately.
obiero
#14 Posted : Friday, March 06, 2020 9:34:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,516
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
deadpoet wrote:
mulla wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Never average down on a share with poor fundamentals, lessons from KQ and MSC. Never ever. You are better off selling and going for shares with strong fundamentals - dont dig a hole you cannot fill.

Today if you sold the KPLC shares and bought into KCB/Safaricom or I&M/NCBA, am sure in 2 years you will be better of than you are now.


I learnt that lesson of averaging down the hard way with KQ and in business. If you find yourself in a bad investment with dim future prospects, BAIL OUT. Dust yourself, swallow your pride and look for better investments. You will save yourself a lot of time and money in future.


Also do the math first. How much do you have to commit to average down to the current price?

Indeed. It's a science


You have alot of experience in this science smile

Fortunately

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
NewMoney
#15 Posted : Saturday, March 07, 2020 2:19:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/1/2019
Posts: 170
Location: Nairobi
deadpoet wrote:
mulla wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Never average down on a share with poor fundamentals, lessons from KQ and MSC. Never ever. You are better off selling and going for shares with strong fundamentals - dont dig a hole you cannot fill.

Today if you sold the KPLC shares and bought into KCB/Safaricom or I&M/NCBA, am sure in 2 years you will be better of than you are now.


I learnt that lesson of averaging down the hard way with KQ and in business. If you find yourself in a bad investment with dim future prospects, BAIL OUT. Dust yourself, swallow your pride and look for better investments. You will save yourself a lot of time and money in future.


Also do the math first. How much do you have to commit to average down to the current price?



My little math background tells me that it's not mathematically possible to average down to the current price, unless you 1) buy an infinite extra amount of that share or 2) are expecting the price to go up e.g your ABP is 20, current price is 10, buy extra to average down to 15 and hope price will go up to 15
obiero
#16 Posted : Saturday, March 07, 2020 6:26:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,516
Location: nairobi
NewMoney wrote:
deadpoet wrote:
mulla wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Never average down on a share with poor fundamentals, lessons from KQ and MSC. Never ever. You are better off selling and going for shares with strong fundamentals - dont dig a hole you cannot fill.

Today if you sold the KPLC shares and bought into KCB/Safaricom or I&M/NCBA, am sure in 2 years you will be better of than you are now.


I learnt that lesson of averaging down the hard way with KQ and in business. If you find yourself in a bad investment with dim future prospects, BAIL OUT. Dust yourself, swallow your pride and look for better investments. You will save yourself a lot of time and money in future.


Also do the math first. How much do you have to commit to average down to the current price?



My little math background tells me that it's not mathematically possible to average down to the current price, unless you 1) buy an infinite extra amount of that share or 2) are expecting the price to go up e.g your ABP is 20, current price is 10, buy extra to average down to 15 and hope price will go up to 15

Your math is right. There must be high hope of a price recovery. Otherwise no need to average down

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
sparkly
#17 Posted : Saturday, March 07, 2020 8:33:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
NewMoney wrote:
deadpoet wrote:
mulla wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Never average down on a share with poor fundamentals, lessons from KQ and MSC. Never ever. You are better off selling and going for shares with strong fundamentals - dont dig a hole you cannot fill.

Today if you sold the KPLC shares and bought into KCB/Safaricom or I&M/NCBA, am sure in 2 years you will be better of than you are now.


I learnt that lesson of averaging down the hard way with KQ and in business. If you find yourself in a bad investment with dim future prospects, BAIL OUT. Dust yourself, swallow your pride and look for better investments. You will save yourself a lot of time and money in future.


Also do the math first. How much do you have to commit to average down to the current price?



My little math background tells me that it's not mathematically possible to average down to the current price, unless you 1) buy an infinite extra amount of that share or 2) are expecting the price to go up e.g your ABP is 20, current price is 10, buy extra to average down to 15 and hope price will go up to 15


My little math background tells me the same thing. The average of two numbers will always be somewhere between the higher number and the lower number. It can't equal the higher or the lower number.
Life is short. Live passionately.
obiero
#18 Posted : Saturday, March 07, 2020 8:28:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,516
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
NewMoney wrote:
deadpoet wrote:
mulla wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Never average down on a share with poor fundamentals, lessons from KQ and MSC. Never ever. You are better off selling and going for shares with strong fundamentals - dont dig a hole you cannot fill.

Today if you sold the KPLC shares and bought into KCB/Safaricom or I&M/NCBA, am sure in 2 years you will be better of than you are now.


I learnt that lesson of averaging down the hard way with KQ and in business. If you find yourself in a bad investment with dim future prospects, BAIL OUT. Dust yourself, swallow your pride and look for better investments. You will save yourself a lot of time and money in future.


Also do the math first. How much do you have to commit to average down to the current price?



My little math background tells me that it's not mathematically possible to average down to the current price, unless you 1) buy an infinite extra amount of that share or 2) are expecting the price to go up e.g your ABP is 20, current price is 10, buy extra to average down to 15 and hope price will go up to 15


My little math background tells me the same thing. The average of two numbers will always be somewhere between the higher number and the lower number. It can't equal the higher or the lower number.

In shilling terms, KES 10 and KES 20 per share are totally different propositions especially when holding large amount of stock. Averaging down can be done but with high caution

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Saturday, March 07, 2020 9:01:41 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
New research going back 120 years backs up Warren Buffett’s simple advice for investing
https://www.cnbc.com/202...dvice-for-investing.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#20 Posted : Sunday, March 08, 2020 9:33:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
NewMoney wrote:
deadpoet wrote:
mulla wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Never average down on a share with poor fundamentals, lessons from KQ and MSC. Never ever. You are better off selling and going for shares with strong fundamentals - dont dig a hole you cannot fill.

Today if you sold the KPLC shares and bought into KCB/Safaricom or I&M/NCBA, am sure in 2 years you will be better of than you are now.


I learnt that lesson of averaging down the hard way with KQ and in business. If you find yourself in a bad investment with dim future prospects, BAIL OUT. Dust yourself, swallow your pride and look for better investments. You will save yourself a lot of time and money in future.


Also do the math first. How much do you have to commit to average down to the current price?



My little math background tells me that it's not mathematically possible to average down to the current price, unless you 1) buy an infinite extra amount of that share or 2) are expecting the price to go up e.g your ABP is 20, current price is 10, buy extra to average down to 15 and hope price will go up to 15


My little math background tells me the same thing. The average of two numbers will always be somewhere between the higher number and the lower number. It can't equal the higher or the lower number.

In shilling terms, KES 10 and KES 20 per share are totally different propositions especially when holding large amount of stock. Averaging down can be done but with high caution


No need for caution when averaging down a fundamentally good stock.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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