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First World Markets Shenanigans
Rank: Member Joined: 6/1/2017 Posts: 288
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Dow down −1,031.61 (3.56%),S&P 500 down −111.86 (3.35%) and NASDAQ falls by −355.31 (3.71%) on Monday's trading as the threat of coronavirus finally hits an overleveraged Wall Street.European and Asian markets get walloped also. But will first world central banks allow a sustained sell off.Hell No.The US Fed,European Central Bank,Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) and Bank of Japan will unleash new oceans of liquidity (bigger than what they are doing now) to revive the markets. US futures markets already point to a higher open.The Plunge Protection Team via the Fed will inject tens of billions of dollars in new money via the repurchase agreement market today and give it to the 6 Wall Street mega banks ie JP Morgan,Citigroup,Bank of America Merrill Lynch,Wells Fargo,Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who will buy back the market.Then the investors who are short the market due to sell off jana will be short squeezed and panic to cover their shorts in a short covering rally hence its highly likely US equity markets will bounce back and who knows close at all time highs this week.  US bond markets also rallied with the 30 year bond hitting all time low yields OF 1.8% and all time high bond prices yesterday.US yield curve continues to invert as 1 month t-bill yields 1.57% while 10 year yields 1.39%.Nuts that a shorter dated treasury yields more than a longer dated treasury but its the silly nature of US markets.This is despite Fed buying 60 billion/month in shorter dated treasuries to uninvert the yield curve.All prior yield curve inversions in the US bond market have 100% predicted a US recession.Worse Eurozone and Japanese bonds sink deeper into negative yields as governments are being paid to borrow money as opposed to the reverse that is the norm.Trump wants negative yielding bonds in US so that investors lose money in buying them and governments gets paid to borrow money like in Germany but long term ends in catastrophe https://www.cnbc.com/201...id-to-borrow-money.html
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/1/2017 Posts: 288
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slick wrote:Dow down −1,031.61 (3.56%),S&P 500 down −111.86 (3.35%) and NASDAQ falls by −355.31 (3.71%) on Monday's trading as the threat of coronavirus finally hits an overleveraged Wall Street.European and Asian markets get walloped also. But will first world central banks allow a sustained sell off.Hell No.The US Fed,European Central Bank,Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) and Bank of Japan will unleash new oceans of liquidity (bigger than what they are doing now) to revive the markets. US futures markets already point to a higher open.The Plunge Protection Team via the Fed will inject tens of billions of dollars in new money via the repurchase agreement market today and give it to the 6 Wall Street mega banks ie JP Morgan,Citigroup,Bank of America Merrill Lynch,Wells Fargo,Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who will buy back the market.Then the investors who are short the market due to sell off jana will be short squeezed and panic to cover their shorts in a short covering rally hence its highly likely US equity markets will bounce back and who knows close at all time highs this week.  US bond markets also rallied with the 30 year bond hitting all time low yields OF 1.8% and all time high bond prices yesterday.US yield curve continues to invert as 1 month t-bill yields 1.57% while 10 year yields 1.39%.Nuts that a shorter dated treasury yields more than a longer dated treasury but its the silly nature of US markets.This is despite Fed buying 60 billion/month in shorter dated treasuries to uninvert the yield curve.All prior yield curve inversions in the US bond market have 100% predicted a US recession.Worse Eurozone and Japanese bonds sink deeper into negative yields as governments are being paid to borrow money as opposed to the reverse that is the norm.Trump wants negative yielding bonds in US so that investors lose money in buying them and governments gets paid to borrow money like in Germany but long term ends in catastrophe https://www.cnbc.com/201...id-to-borrow-money.html
Another bloodbath on Wall Street yesterday.I assumed as usual the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) via the Fed will inject massive liquidity via the repurchase agreement (repo) market to revive the market and true to form the US central bank created 75 billion new US Dollars from nothing and handed it to the 6 mega Wall Street Banks earlier in the morning before markets opened to buy back tanking stocks but the initial muted rise in stocks was massively offset by an avalanche of selling.High Frequency Computer Algos went nuts and kept selling with the increase of coronavirus negative news.Unlike previous sell offs that were reversed by Fed money printing,the coronavirus is a black swan that may not be offset by monetary stimulus.Printing new fiat by first world central banks cannot offset the supply-demand shocks created by the virus.With the world's manufacturing hub China in lockdown,now another key production hubs like South Korea,Japan and the industrial heartland of Northern Italy also in serious distress,global production and supply chains are being massively disrupted and the large consumer base of China cannot also go shopping so demand is collapsing.Global industrial output had already gone into recession in 2019 due to US-China Trade war and now even the US services PMI shrunk in January and definitely will shrink in February.China may record a negative GDP growth this Quarter 1 (a first in many decades).Japan and Italy (Italian Banks are grossly overleveraged with high NPLs just being kept alive by European Central Bank liquidity injections)were already flirting with recession and this virus could make them sink deeper into the red.Germany was already in a technical recession and even though the virus hasnt become virulent in Europe's largest economy,Deutschland's economy may officially contract. Bonds had a massive rally as investors sought safe heavens in treasuries.US 30 and 10 year bonds yet again hit all time lows as investors chased these bonds that have a ridiculously paltry yield of less than 2% but yet are more attractive than Eurozone and Japanese bonds that have negative yields thanks to central banks openly buying government treasuries to supress rates thus keep bubble economies and markets afloat.US bond yields continue to invert as 1 month bill yields a peanuts 1.57% vs 10 year yielding 1.365%.Quite silly for short dated treasuries to yield higher than long dated treasuries and this abnormality in US bond markets has 100% predicted a US recession.Bond yields inverted in the US a few months before the dotcom meltdown and 2008 housing crash plus all prior US recessions. Though one shouldn't count developed world central banks out.Ever since the 2008 crisis,they have become very adept of introducing ever more bizarre money printing schemes to buy distressed assets.Japanese and Swiss Central Banks directly buy stocks (US Fed buys stocks indirectly by injecting liquidity to Wall Street banks to buy stocks and there are discussions that the Fed should start openly buying US stocks) and all developed world central banks directly buy government treasuries and some corporate bonds in a Zimbabwe style debt monetization scheme to keep the markets propped up.Inevitably it will lead to disaster but currently it has created the biggest asset bubble markets in history but it seems its now cracking but central banks may revive markets at least in nominal terms.The Fed now is under immense pressure to cut rates and inject even more liquidity via the repo market and Quantitative Easing. Interesting times ahead for first world markets. Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/1/2017 Posts: 288
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slick wrote:slick wrote:Dow down −1,031.61 (3.56%),S&P 500 down −111.86 (3.35%) and NASDAQ falls by −355.31 (3.71%) on Monday's trading as the threat of coronavirus finally hits an overleveraged Wall Street.European and Asian markets get walloped also. But will first world central banks allow a sustained sell off.Hell No.The US Fed,European Central Bank,Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) and Bank of Japan will unleash new oceans of liquidity (bigger than what they are doing now) to revive the markets. US futures markets already point to a higher open.The Plunge Protection Team via the Fed will inject tens of billions of dollars in new money via the repurchase agreement market today and give it to the 6 Wall Street mega banks ie JP Morgan,Citigroup,Bank of America Merrill Lynch,Wells Fargo,Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who will buy back the market.Then the investors who are short the market due to sell off jana will be short squeezed and panic to cover their shorts in a short covering rally hence its highly likely US equity markets will bounce back and who knows close at all time highs this week.  US bond markets also rallied with the 30 year bond hitting all time low yields OF 1.8% and all time high bond prices yesterday.US yield curve continues to invert as 1 month t-bill yields 1.57% while 10 year yields 1.39%.Nuts that a shorter dated treasury yields more than a longer dated treasury but its the silly nature of US markets.This is despite Fed buying 60 billion/month in shorter dated treasuries to uninvert the yield curve.All prior yield curve inversions in the US bond market have 100% predicted a US recession.Worse Eurozone and Japanese bonds sink deeper into negative yields as governments are being paid to borrow money as opposed to the reverse that is the norm.Trump wants negative yielding bonds in US so that investors lose money in buying them and governments gets paid to borrow money like in Germany but long term ends in catastrophe https://www.cnbc.com/201...id-to-borrow-money.html
Another bloodbath on Wall Street yesterday.I assumed as usual the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) via the Fed will inject massive liquidity via the repurchase agreement (repo) market to revive the market and true to form the US central bank created 75 billion new US Dollars from nothing and handed it to the 6 mega Wall Street Banks earlier in the morning before markets opened to buy back tanking stocks but the initial muted rise in stocks was massively offset by an avalanche of selling.High Frequency Computer Algos went nuts and kept selling with the increase of coronavirus negative news.Unlike previous sell offs that were reversed by Fed money printing,the coronavirus is a black swan that may not be offset by monetary stimulus.Printing new fiat by first world central banks cannot offset the supply-demand shocks created by the virus.With the world's manufacturing hub China in lockdown,now another key production hubs like South Korea,Japan and the industrial heartland of Northern Italy also in serious distress,global production and supply chains are being massively disrupted and the large consumer base of China cannot also go shopping so demand is collapsing.Global industrial output had already gone into recession in 2019 due to US-China Trade war and now even the US services PMI shrunk in January and definitely will shrink in February.China may record a negative GDP growth this Quarter 1 (a first in many decades).Japan and Italy (Italian Banks are grossly overleveraged with high NPLs just being kept alive by European Central Bank liquidity injections)were already flirting with recession and this virus could make them sink deeper into the red.Germany was already in a technical recession and even though the virus hasnt become virulent in Europe's largest economy,Deutschland's economy may officially contract. Bonds had a massive rally as investors sought safe heavens in treasuries.US 30 and 10 year bonds yet again hit all time lows as investors chased these bonds that have a ridiculously paltry yield of less than 2% but yet are more attractive than Eurozone and Japanese bonds that have negative yields thanks to central banks openly buying government treasuries to supress rates thus keep bubble economies and markets afloat.US bond yields continue to invert as 1 month bill yields a peanuts 1.57% vs 10 year yielding 1.365%.Quite silly for short dated treasuries to yield higher than long dated treasuries and this abnormality in US bond markets has 100% predicted a US recession.Bond yields inverted in the US a few months before the dotcom meltdown and 2008 housing crash plus all prior US recessions. Though one shouldn't count developed world central banks out.Ever since the 2008 crisis,they have become very adept of introducing ever more bizarre money printing schemes to buy distressed assets.Japanese and Swiss Central Banks directly buy stocks (US Fed buys stocks indirectly by injecting liquidity to Wall Street banks to buy stocks and there are discussions that the Fed should start openly buying US stocks) and all developed world central banks directly buy government treasuries and some corporate bonds in a Zimbabwe style debt monetization scheme to keep the markets propped up.Inevitably it will lead to disaster but currently it has created the biggest asset bubble markets in history but it seems its now cracking but central banks may revive markets at least in nominal terms.The Fed now is under immense pressure to cut rates and inject even more liquidity via the repo market and Quantitative Easing. Interesting times ahead for first world markets. US Central Bank ie the Fed money printing shenanigans.The European,Chinese and Japanese Central banks are even worse in the percentage amount of electronic new money creation schemes relative to their GDPs.  Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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slick wrote:slick wrote:slick wrote:Dow down −1,031.61 (3.56%),S&P 500 down −111.86 (3.35%) and NASDAQ falls by −355.31 (3.71%) on Monday's trading as the threat of coronavirus finally hits an overleveraged Wall Street.European and Asian markets get walloped also. But will first world central banks allow a sustained sell off.Hell No.The US Fed,European Central Bank,Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) and Bank of Japan will unleash new oceans of liquidity (bigger than what they are doing now) to revive the markets. US futures markets already point to a higher open.The Plunge Protection Team via the Fed will inject tens of billions of dollars in new money via the repurchase agreement market today and give it to the 6 Wall Street mega banks ie JP Morgan,Citigroup,Bank of America Merrill Lynch,Wells Fargo,Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who will buy back the market.Then the investors who are short the market due to sell off jana will be short squeezed and panic to cover their shorts in a short covering rally hence its highly likely US equity markets will bounce back and who knows close at all time highs this week.  US bond markets also rallied with the 30 year bond hitting all time low yields OF 1.8% and all time high bond prices yesterday.US yield curve continues to invert as 1 month t-bill yields 1.57% while 10 year yields 1.39%.Nuts that a shorter dated treasury yields more than a longer dated treasury but its the silly nature of US markets.This is despite Fed buying 60 billion/month in shorter dated treasuries to uninvert the yield curve.All prior yield curve inversions in the US bond market have 100% predicted a US recession.Worse Eurozone and Japanese bonds sink deeper into negative yields as governments are being paid to borrow money as opposed to the reverse that is the norm.Trump wants negative yielding bonds in US so that investors lose money in buying them and governments gets paid to borrow money like in Germany but long term ends in catastrophe https://www.cnbc.com/201...id-to-borrow-money.html
Another bloodbath on Wall Street yesterday.I assumed as usual the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) via the Fed will inject massive liquidity via the repurchase agreement (repo) market to revive the market and true to form the US central bank created 75 billion new US Dollars from nothing and handed it to the 6 mega Wall Street Banks earlier in the morning before markets opened to buy back tanking stocks but the initial muted rise in stocks was massively offset by an avalanche of selling.High Frequency Computer Algos went nuts and kept selling with the increase of coronavirus negative news.Unlike previous sell offs that were reversed by Fed money printing,the coronavirus is a black swan that may not be offset by monetary stimulus.Printing new fiat by first world central banks cannot offset the supply-demand shocks created by the virus.With the world's manufacturing hub China in lockdown,now another key production hubs like South Korea,Japan and the industrial heartland of Northern Italy also in serious distress,global production and supply chains are being massively disrupted and the large consumer base of China cannot also go shopping so demand is collapsing.Global industrial output had already gone into recession in 2019 due to US-China Trade war and now even the US services PMI shrunk in January and definitely will shrink in February.China may record a negative GDP growth this Quarter 1 (a first in many decades).Japan and Italy (Italian Banks are grossly overleveraged with high NPLs just being kept alive by European Central Bank liquidity injections)were already flirting with recession and this virus could make them sink deeper into the red.Germany was already in a technical recession and even though the virus hasnt become virulent in Europe's largest economy,Deutschland's economy may officially contract. Bonds had a massive rally as investors sought safe heavens in treasuries.US 30 and 10 year bonds yet again hit all time lows as investors chased these bonds that have a ridiculously paltry yield of less than 2% but yet are more attractive than Eurozone and Japanese bonds that have negative yields thanks to central banks openly buying government treasuries to supress rates thus keep bubble economies and markets afloat.US bond yields continue to invert as 1 month bill yields a peanuts 1.57% vs 10 year yielding 1.365%.Quite silly for short dated treasuries to yield higher than long dated treasuries and this abnormality in US bond markets has 100% predicted a US recession.Bond yields inverted in the US a few months before the dotcom meltdown and 2008 housing crash plus all prior US recessions. Though one shouldn't count developed world central banks out.Ever since the 2008 crisis,they have become very adept of introducing ever more bizarre money printing schemes to buy distressed assets.Japanese and Swiss Central Banks directly buy stocks (US Fed buys stocks indirectly by injecting liquidity to Wall Street banks to buy stocks and there are discussions that the Fed should start openly buying US stocks) and all developed world central banks directly buy government treasuries and some corporate bonds in a Zimbabwe style debt monetization scheme to keep the markets propped up.Inevitably it will lead to disaster but currently it has created the biggest asset bubble markets in history but it seems its now cracking but central banks may revive markets at least in nominal terms.The Fed now is under immense pressure to cut rates and inject even more liquidity via the repo market and Quantitative Easing. Interesting times ahead for first world markets. US Central Bank ie the Fed money printing shenanigans.The European,Chinese and Japanese Central banks are even worse in the percentage amount of electronic new money creation schemes relative to their GDPs.  Opus Dei should borrow a leaf from FED and open the floodgates. But there is the small issue of our USD denominated debts that may implode due to the USD Bulls. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/1/2017 Posts: 288
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:slick wrote:slick wrote:slick wrote:Dow down −1,031.61 (3.56%),S&P 500 down −111.86 (3.35%) and NASDAQ falls by −355.31 (3.71%) on Monday's trading as the threat of coronavirus finally hits an overleveraged Wall Street.European and Asian markets get walloped also. But will first world central banks allow a sustained sell off.Hell No.The US Fed,European Central Bank,Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) and Bank of Japan will unleash new oceans of liquidity (bigger than what they are doing now) to revive the markets. US futures markets already point to a higher open.The Plunge Protection Team via the Fed will inject tens of billions of dollars in new money via the repurchase agreement market today and give it to the 6 Wall Street mega banks ie JP Morgan,Citigroup,Bank of America Merrill Lynch,Wells Fargo,Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who will buy back the market.Then the investors who are short the market due to sell off jana will be short squeezed and panic to cover their shorts in a short covering rally hence its highly likely US equity markets will bounce back and who knows close at all time highs this week.  US bond markets also rallied with the 30 year bond hitting all time low yields OF 1.8% and all time high bond prices yesterday.US yield curve continues to invert as 1 month t-bill yields 1.57% while 10 year yields 1.39%.Nuts that a shorter dated treasury yields more than a longer dated treasury but its the silly nature of US markets.This is despite Fed buying 60 billion/month in shorter dated treasuries to uninvert the yield curve.All prior yield curve inversions in the US bond market have 100% predicted a US recession.Worse Eurozone and Japanese bonds sink deeper into negative yields as governments are being paid to borrow money as opposed to the reverse that is the norm.Trump wants negative yielding bonds in US so that investors lose money in buying them and governments gets paid to borrow money like in Germany but long term ends in catastrophe https://www.cnbc.com/201...id-to-borrow-money.html
Another bloodbath on Wall Street yesterday.I assumed as usual the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) via the Fed will inject massive liquidity via the repurchase agreement (repo) market to revive the market and true to form the US central bank created 75 billion new US Dollars from nothing and handed it to the 6 mega Wall Street Banks earlier in the morning before markets opened to buy back tanking stocks but the initial muted rise in stocks was massively offset by an avalanche of selling.High Frequency Computer Algos went nuts and kept selling with the increase of coronavirus negative news.Unlike previous sell offs that were reversed by Fed money printing,the coronavirus is a black swan that may not be offset by monetary stimulus.Printing new fiat by first world central banks cannot offset the supply-demand shocks created by the virus.With the world's manufacturing hub China in lockdown,now another key production hubs like South Korea,Japan and the industrial heartland of Northern Italy also in serious distress,global production and supply chains are being massively disrupted and the large consumer base of China cannot also go shopping so demand is collapsing.Global industrial output had already gone into recession in 2019 due to US-China Trade war and now even the US services PMI shrunk in January and definitely will shrink in February.China may record a negative GDP growth this Quarter 1 (a first in many decades).Japan and Italy (Italian Banks are grossly overleveraged with high NPLs just being kept alive by European Central Bank liquidity injections)were already flirting with recession and this virus could make them sink deeper into the red.Germany was already in a technical recession and even though the virus hasnt become virulent in Europe's largest economy,Deutschland's economy may officially contract. Bonds had a massive rally as investors sought safe heavens in treasuries.US 30 and 10 year bonds yet again hit all time lows as investors chased these bonds that have a ridiculously paltry yield of less than 2% but yet are more attractive than Eurozone and Japanese bonds that have negative yields thanks to central banks openly buying government treasuries to supress rates thus keep bubble economies and markets afloat.US bond yields continue to invert as 1 month bill yields a peanuts 1.57% vs 10 year yielding 1.365%.Quite silly for short dated treasuries to yield higher than long dated treasuries and this abnormality in US bond markets has 100% predicted a US recession.Bond yields inverted in the US a few months before the dotcom meltdown and 2008 housing crash plus all prior US recessions. Though one shouldn't count developed world central banks out.Ever since the 2008 crisis,they have become very adept of introducing ever more bizarre money printing schemes to buy distressed assets.Japanese and Swiss Central Banks directly buy stocks (US Fed buys stocks indirectly by injecting liquidity to Wall Street banks to buy stocks and there are discussions that the Fed should start openly buying US stocks) and all developed world central banks directly buy government treasuries and some corporate bonds in a Zimbabwe style debt monetization scheme to keep the markets propped up.Inevitably it will lead to disaster but currently it has created the biggest asset bubble markets in history but it seems its now cracking but central banks may revive markets at least in nominal terms.The Fed now is under immense pressure to cut rates and inject even more liquidity via the repo market and Quantitative Easing. Interesting times ahead for first world markets. US Central Bank ie the Fed money printing shenanigans.The European,Chinese and Japanese Central banks are even worse in the percentage amount of electronic new money creation schemes relative to their GDPs.  Opus Dei should borrow a leaf from FED and open the floodgates. But there is the small issue of our USD denominated debts that may implode due to the USD Bulls. Opus Dei cannot pull off a Fed type money printing scheme without hyperinflating the Kenya Shilling.The Fed and developed markets central banks can massively expand the money supply without experiencing instant hyperinflation since their currencies are always in demand in global markets.The US Dollar with its status as the reserve currency can quintuple its base money supply since 2008 meltdown but not crash as the USD is the lynch pin of global reserves and trade.80% of global trade is done in US dollars (for those who know the petrodollar system),60% of global central banks reserves are in USD,there is 11 trillion of dollar denominated debt outside the US so for now the Fed can print almost to infinity and the global economy will absorb the dollars.In fact now there is a USD crunch as foreign nations seeking dollars to bay back their USD denominated debt and the current flight from other major currencies like the Euro,Yen,Yuan that have printed even more money than the Fed relative to their GDPs is keeping the USD stronger relative to other fiat currencies. This massive global demand of the USD and other major currencies enables the first world central banks to break rules of conventional economics.Its nuts that ever since 2008 crash,the first world central banks are explicitly buying treasury bonds.For instance the US treasury issues bonds to fund its obligations,the 6 Wall Street Banks plus other primary dealer banks buy these treasuries then they sell them to the Fed.The Fed creates new dollars from nothing and buys these bonds from the Wall Street Banks at a profit to the banks.The Wall Street banks then buy their own stocks or other US stocks pushing markets even higher and also loan to their hedge funds,private equity buddies and other major corporations like IBM,Tesla etc at ultra low rates then they buyback their own stocks pushing markets even higher.This entire mechanism is called Quantitative Easing (QE) and its responsible for the massive bull market in US stocks and bonds to all time highs.There is massive inflation from all the new Dollars but it doesnt go into consumer products yet but asset prices of stocks,real estate and bonds.Its no wonder US stock indexes like the S&P 500 have gone up 5 times ever since the 2008 crash as money supply has increased also 5 times.Inevitably this money will leak into consumer prices then things get really nasty. Europe and Japan are even worse than the Fed.The European Central Bank (ECB)is more reckless than the Fed and buys even corporate bonds in addition to government treasuries.For instance Nestle,Unilever float bonds and ECB creates new Euros and buys them.Swiss and Japanese central banks are worse than this.Japanese central bank (BOJ) explicitly buys Japan's stocks and in the biggest holder of the Nikkei stocks plus has bought over half the Japanese treasury market.Swiss central Bank buys US stocks especially Tech stocks like Apple and Facebook.The ECB and BOJ have bought so many government bonds that treasury yields in the Eurozone and Japan have gone negative thus investors who buy these bonds and hold them to maturity are guaranteed to lose money hence investors in Europe and Japan flee these bonds to buy US bonds that have a paltry treasury yield of less than 2%. Should CBK do the same?It would be interesting to see if CBK starts buying bonds that the Treasury floats and possibly engage in misbehavior like in Europe and Japan and buy corporate bonds and even buy stocks from newly created Kenya Shillings.If,Opus Dei did this Safaricom stock would trade at 1,000 KES  our bond yields would drop to near zero or even negative yields,loan interest rates for mortgages and other loan facilities would drop to 5% and below (some mortgages in Denmark have negative interest rates) just like in the advanced world then Kenyans would go on a borrowing spree,buy houses just like in the US sub-prime debacle then the debt overhang would implode just like the 2008 housing crash.So it would create a sugar bubble high that inevitably crashes but by then the Kenya Shilling would have long hyperinflated. So no Opus Dei shouldn't engage in such shenanigans and anyway the KES is too weak in global markets to successfully pull it off without hyperinflating the KES. Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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slick wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:slick wrote:slick wrote:slick wrote:Dow down −1,031.61 (3.56%),S&P 500 down −111.86 (3.35%) and NASDAQ falls by −355.31 (3.71%) on Monday's trading as the threat of coronavirus finally hits an overleveraged Wall Street.European and Asian markets get walloped also. But will first world central banks allow a sustained sell off.Hell No.The US Fed,European Central Bank,Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) and Bank of Japan will unleash new oceans of liquidity (bigger than what they are doing now) to revive the markets. US futures markets already point to a higher open.The Plunge Protection Team via the Fed will inject tens of billions of dollars in new money via the repurchase agreement market today and give it to the 6 Wall Street mega banks ie JP Morgan,Citigroup,Bank of America Merrill Lynch,Wells Fargo,Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who will buy back the market.Then the investors who are short the market due to sell off jana will be short squeezed and panic to cover their shorts in a short covering rally hence its highly likely US equity markets will bounce back and who knows close at all time highs this week.  US bond markets also rallied with the 30 year bond hitting all time low yields OF 1.8% and all time high bond prices yesterday.US yield curve continues to invert as 1 month t-bill yields 1.57% while 10 year yields 1.39%.Nuts that a shorter dated treasury yields more than a longer dated treasury but its the silly nature of US markets.This is despite Fed buying 60 billion/month in shorter dated treasuries to uninvert the yield curve.All prior yield curve inversions in the US bond market have 100% predicted a US recession.Worse Eurozone and Japanese bonds sink deeper into negative yields as governments are being paid to borrow money as opposed to the reverse that is the norm.Trump wants negative yielding bonds in US so that investors lose money in buying them and governments gets paid to borrow money like in Germany but long term ends in catastrophe https://www.cnbc.com/201...id-to-borrow-money.html
Another bloodbath on Wall Street yesterday.I assumed as usual the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) via the Fed will inject massive liquidity via the repurchase agreement (repo) market to revive the market and true to form the US central bank created 75 billion new US Dollars from nothing and handed it to the 6 mega Wall Street Banks earlier in the morning before markets opened to buy back tanking stocks but the initial muted rise in stocks was massively offset by an avalanche of selling.High Frequency Computer Algos went nuts and kept selling with the increase of coronavirus negative news.Unlike previous sell offs that were reversed by Fed money printing,the coronavirus is a black swan that may not be offset by monetary stimulus.Printing new fiat by first world central banks cannot offset the supply-demand shocks created by the virus.With the world's manufacturing hub China in lockdown,now another key production hubs like South Korea,Japan and the industrial heartland of Northern Italy also in serious distress,global production and supply chains are being massively disrupted and the large consumer base of China cannot also go shopping so demand is collapsing.Global industrial output had already gone into recession in 2019 due to US-China Trade war and now even the US services PMI shrunk in January and definitely will shrink in February.China may record a negative GDP growth this Quarter 1 (a first in many decades).Japan and Italy (Italian Banks are grossly overleveraged with high NPLs just being kept alive by European Central Bank liquidity injections)were already flirting with recession and this virus could make them sink deeper into the red.Germany was already in a technical recession and even though the virus hasnt become virulent in Europe's largest economy,Deutschland's economy may officially contract. Bonds had a massive rally as investors sought safe heavens in treasuries.US 30 and 10 year bonds yet again hit all time lows as investors chased these bonds that have a ridiculously paltry yield of less than 2% but yet are more attractive than Eurozone and Japanese bonds that have negative yields thanks to central banks openly buying government treasuries to supress rates thus keep bubble economies and markets afloat.US bond yields continue to invert as 1 month bill yields a peanuts 1.57% vs 10 year yielding 1.365%.Quite silly for short dated treasuries to yield higher than long dated treasuries and this abnormality in US bond markets has 100% predicted a US recession.Bond yields inverted in the US a few months before the dotcom meltdown and 2008 housing crash plus all prior US recessions. Though one shouldn't count developed world central banks out.Ever since the 2008 crisis,they have become very adept of introducing ever more bizarre money printing schemes to buy distressed assets.Japanese and Swiss Central Banks directly buy stocks (US Fed buys stocks indirectly by injecting liquidity to Wall Street banks to buy stocks and there are discussions that the Fed should start openly buying US stocks) and all developed world central banks directly buy government treasuries and some corporate bonds in a Zimbabwe style debt monetization scheme to keep the markets propped up.Inevitably it will lead to disaster but currently it has created the biggest asset bubble markets in history but it seems its now cracking but central banks may revive markets at least in nominal terms.The Fed now is under immense pressure to cut rates and inject even more liquidity via the repo market and Quantitative Easing. Interesting times ahead for first world markets. US Central Bank ie the Fed money printing shenanigans.The European,Chinese and Japanese Central banks are even worse in the percentage amount of electronic new money creation schemes relative to their GDPs.  Opus Dei should borrow a leaf from FED and open the floodgates. But there is the small issue of our USD denominated debts that may implode due to the USD Bulls. Opus Dei cannot pull off a Fed type money printing scheme without hyperinflating the Kenya Shilling.The Fed and developed markets central banks can massively expand the money supply without experiencing instant hyperinflation since their currencies are always in demand in global markets.The US Dollar with its status as the reserve currency can quintuple its base money supply since 2008 meltdown but not crash as the USD is the lynch pin of global reserves and trade.80% of global trade is done in US dollars (for those who know the petrodollar system),60% of global central banks reserves are in USD,there is 11 trillion of dollar denominated debt outside the US so for now the Fed can print almost to infinity and the global economy will absorb the dollars.In fact now there is a USD crunch as foreign nations seeking dollars to bay back their USD denominated debt and the current flight from other major currencies like the Euro,Yen,Yuan that have printed even more money than the Fed relative to their GDPs is keeping the USD stronger relative to other fiat currencies. This massive global demand of the USD and other major currencies enables the first world central banks to break rules of conventional economics.Its nuts that ever since 2008 crash,the first world central banks are explicitly buying treasury bonds.For instance the US treasury issues bonds to fund its obligations,the 6 Wall Street Banks plus other primary dealer banks buy these treasuries then they sell them to the Fed.The Fed creates new dollars from nothing and buys these bonds from the Wall Street Banks at a profit to the banks.The Wall Street banks then buy their own stocks or other US stocks pushing markets even higher and also loan to their hedge funds,private equity buddies and other major corporations like IBM,Tesla etc at ultra low rates then they buyback their own stocks pushing markets even higher.This entire mechanism is called Quantitative Easing (QE) and its responsible for the massive bull market in US stocks and bonds to all time highs.There is massive inflation from all the new Dollars but it doesnt go into consumer products yet but asset prices of stocks,real estate and bonds.Its no wonder US stock indexes like the S&P 500 have gone up 5 times ever since the 2008 crash as money supply has increased also 5 times.Inevitably this money will leak into consumer prices then things get really nasty. Europe and Japan are even worse than the Fed.The European Central Bank (ECB)is more reckless than the Fed and buys even corporate bonds in addition to government treasuries.For instance Nestle,Unilever float bonds and ECB creates new Euros and buys them.Swiss and Japanese central banks are worse than this.Japanese central bank (BOJ) explicitly buys Japan's stocks and in the biggest holder of the Nikkei stocks plus has bought over half the Japanese treasury market.Swiss central Bank buys US stocks especially Tech stocks like Apple and Facebook.The ECB and BOJ have bought so many government bonds that treasury yields in the Eurozone and Japan have gone negative thus investors who buy these bonds and hold them to maturity are guaranteed to lose money hence investors in Europe and Japan flee these bonds to buy US bonds that have a paltry treasury yield of less than 2%. Should CBK do the same?It would be interesting to see if CBK starts buying bonds that the Treasury floats and possibly engage in misbehavior like in Europe and Japan and buy corporate bonds and even buy stocks from newly created Kenya Shillings.If,Opus Dei did this Safaricom stock would trade at 1,000 KES  our bond yields would drop to near zero or even negative yields,loan interest rates for mortgages and other loan facilities would drop to 5% and below (some mortgages in Denmark have negative interest rates) just like in the advanced world then Kenyans would go on a borrowing spree,buy houses just like in the US sub-prime debacle then the debt overhang would implode just like the 2008 housing crash.So it would create a sugar bubble high that inevitably crashes but by then the Kenya Shilling would have long hyperinflated. So no Opus Dei shouldn't engage in such shenanigans and anyway the KES is too weak in global markets to successfully pull it off without hyperinflating the KES. It isn't as easy as printing fiat/QE and everything goes up much less so interest rates. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/1/2017 Posts: 288
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lochaz-index wrote:slick wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:slick wrote:slick wrote:slick wrote:Dow down −1,031.61 (3.56%),S&P 500 down −111.86 (3.35%) and NASDAQ falls by −355.31 (3.71%) on Monday's trading as the threat of coronavirus finally hits an overleveraged Wall Street.European and Asian markets get walloped also. But will first world central banks allow a sustained sell off.Hell No.The US Fed,European Central Bank,Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) and Bank of Japan will unleash new oceans of liquidity (bigger than what they are doing now) to revive the markets. US futures markets already point to a higher open.The Plunge Protection Team via the Fed will inject tens of billions of dollars in new money via the repurchase agreement market today and give it to the 6 Wall Street mega banks ie JP Morgan,Citigroup,Bank of America Merrill Lynch,Wells Fargo,Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who will buy back the market.Then the investors who are short the market due to sell off jana will be short squeezed and panic to cover their shorts in a short covering rally hence its highly likely US equity markets will bounce back and who knows close at all time highs this week.  US bond markets also rallied with the 30 year bond hitting all time low yields OF 1.8% and all time high bond prices yesterday.US yield curve continues to invert as 1 month t-bill yields 1.57% while 10 year yields 1.39%.Nuts that a shorter dated treasury yields more than a longer dated treasury but its the silly nature of US markets.This is despite Fed buying 60 billion/month in shorter dated treasuries to uninvert the yield curve.All prior yield curve inversions in the US bond market have 100% predicted a US recession.Worse Eurozone and Japanese bonds sink deeper into negative yields as governments are being paid to borrow money as opposed to the reverse that is the norm.Trump wants negative yielding bonds in US so that investors lose money in buying them and governments gets paid to borrow money like in Germany but long term ends in catastrophe https://www.cnbc.com/201...id-to-borrow-money.html
Another bloodbath on Wall Street yesterday.I assumed as usual the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) via the Fed will inject massive liquidity via the repurchase agreement (repo) market to revive the market and true to form the US central bank created 75 billion new US Dollars from nothing and handed it to the 6 mega Wall Street Banks earlier in the morning before markets opened to buy back tanking stocks but the initial muted rise in stocks was massively offset by an avalanche of selling.High Frequency Computer Algos went nuts and kept selling with the increase of coronavirus negative news.Unlike previous sell offs that were reversed by Fed money printing,the coronavirus is a black swan that may not be offset by monetary stimulus.Printing new fiat by first world central banks cannot offset the supply-demand shocks created by the virus.With the world's manufacturing hub China in lockdown,now another key production hubs like South Korea,Japan and the industrial heartland of Northern Italy also in serious distress,global production and supply chains are being massively disrupted and the large consumer base of China cannot also go shopping so demand is collapsing.Global industrial output had already gone into recession in 2019 due to US-China Trade war and now even the US services PMI shrunk in January and definitely will shrink in February.China may record a negative GDP growth this Quarter 1 (a first in many decades).Japan and Italy (Italian Banks are grossly overleveraged with high NPLs just being kept alive by European Central Bank liquidity injections)were already flirting with recession and this virus could make them sink deeper into the red.Germany was already in a technical recession and even though the virus hasnt become virulent in Europe's largest economy,Deutschland's economy may officially contract. Bonds had a massive rally as investors sought safe heavens in treasuries.US 30 and 10 year bonds yet again hit all time lows as investors chased these bonds that have a ridiculously paltry yield of less than 2% but yet are more attractive than Eurozone and Japanese bonds that have negative yields thanks to central banks openly buying government treasuries to supress rates thus keep bubble economies and markets afloat.US bond yields continue to invert as 1 month bill yields a peanuts 1.57% vs 10 year yielding 1.365%.Quite silly for short dated treasuries to yield higher than long dated treasuries and this abnormality in US bond markets has 100% predicted a US recession.Bond yields inverted in the US a few months before the dotcom meltdown and 2008 housing crash plus all prior US recessions. Though one shouldn't count developed world central banks out.Ever since the 2008 crisis,they have become very adept of introducing ever more bizarre money printing schemes to buy distressed assets.Japanese and Swiss Central Banks directly buy stocks (US Fed buys stocks indirectly by injecting liquidity to Wall Street banks to buy stocks and there are discussions that the Fed should start openly buying US stocks) and all developed world central banks directly buy government treasuries and some corporate bonds in a Zimbabwe style debt monetization scheme to keep the markets propped up.Inevitably it will lead to disaster but currently it has created the biggest asset bubble markets in history but it seems its now cracking but central banks may revive markets at least in nominal terms.The Fed now is under immense pressure to cut rates and inject even more liquidity via the repo market and Quantitative Easing. Interesting times ahead for first world markets. US Central Bank ie the Fed money printing shenanigans.The European,Chinese and Japanese Central banks are even worse in the percentage amount of electronic new money creation schemes relative to their GDPs.  Opus Dei should borrow a leaf from FED and open the floodgates. But there is the small issue of our USD denominated debts that may implode due to the USD Bulls. Opus Dei cannot pull off a Fed type money printing scheme without hyperinflating the Kenya Shilling.The Fed and developed markets central banks can massively expand the money supply without experiencing instant hyperinflation since their currencies are always in demand in global markets.The US Dollar with its status as the reserve currency can quintuple its base money supply since 2008 meltdown but not crash as the USD is the lynch pin of global reserves and trade.80% of global trade is done in US dollars (for those who know the petrodollar system),60% of global central banks reserves are in USD,there is 11 trillion of dollar denominated debt outside the US so for now the Fed can print almost to infinity and the global economy will absorb the dollars.In fact now there is a USD crunch as foreign nations seeking dollars to bay back their USD denominated debt and the current flight from other major currencies like the Euro,Yen,Yuan that have printed even more money than the Fed relative to their GDPs is keeping the USD stronger relative to other fiat currencies. This massive global demand of the USD and other major currencies enables the first world central banks to break rules of conventional economics.Its nuts that ever since 2008 crash,the first world central banks are explicitly buying treasury bonds.For instance the US treasury issues bonds to fund its obligations,the 6 Wall Street Banks plus other primary dealer banks buy these treasuries then they sell them to the Fed.The Fed creates new dollars from nothing and buys these bonds from the Wall Street Banks at a profit to the banks.The Wall Street banks then buy their own stocks or other US stocks pushing markets even higher and also loan to their hedge funds,private equity buddies and other major corporations like IBM,Tesla etc at ultra low rates then they buyback their own stocks pushing markets even higher.This entire mechanism is called Quantitative Easing (QE) and its responsible for the massive bull market in US stocks and bonds to all time highs.There is massive inflation from all the new Dollars but it doesnt go into consumer products yet but asset prices of stocks,real estate and bonds.Its no wonder US stock indexes like the S&P 500 have gone up 5 times ever since the 2008 crash as money supply has increased also 5 times.Inevitably this money will leak into consumer prices then things get really nasty. Europe and Japan are even worse than the Fed.The European Central Bank (ECB)is more reckless than the Fed and buys even corporate bonds in addition to government treasuries.For instance Nestle,Unilever float bonds and ECB creates new Euros and buys them.Swiss and Japanese central banks are worse than this.Japanese central bank (BOJ) explicitly buys Japan's stocks and in the biggest holder of the Nikkei stocks plus has bought over half the Japanese treasury market.Swiss central Bank buys US stocks especially Tech stocks like Apple and Facebook.The ECB and BOJ have bought so many government bonds that treasury yields in the Eurozone and Japan have gone negative thus investors who buy these bonds and hold them to maturity are guaranteed to lose money hence investors in Europe and Japan flee these bonds to buy US bonds that have a paltry treasury yield of less than 2%. Should CBK do the same?It would be interesting to see if CBK starts buying bonds that the Treasury floats and possibly engage in misbehavior like in Europe and Japan and buy corporate bonds and even buy stocks from newly created Kenya Shillings.If,Opus Dei did this Safaricom stock would trade at 1,000 KES  our bond yields would drop to near zero or even negative yields,loan interest rates for mortgages and other loan facilities would drop to 5% and below (some mortgages in Denmark have negative interest rates) just like in the advanced world then Kenyans would go on a borrowing spree,buy houses just like in the US sub-prime debacle then the debt overhang would implode just like the 2008 housing crash.So it would create a sugar bubble high that inevitably crashes but by then the Kenya Shilling would have long hyperinflated. So no Opus Dei shouldn't engage in such shenanigans and anyway the KES is too weak in global markets to successfully pull it off without hyperinflating the KES. It isn't as easy as printing fiat/QE and everything goes up much less so interest rates. The developed world central banks have been very "smart" with their QE scheme thus far to ensure it doesnt leak to general consumer prices to a large extent at least for now.A vast proportion of these QE money sits in commercial banks balance sheet as excess reserves and the remainder they lend to their other rich elite buddies like hedge funds.private equity and corporates at ultra low rates to fuel asset price inflation of stocks,real estate and bonds as opposed to general consumer price inflation.To achieve and maintain the ultra low rates the developed nations central banks have to keep printing money and buy government bonds to suppress rates from newly created fiat.Kenyans are jealous of low loan rates in the West e.g. mortgage rates of 5% and below assuming its because Western markets are mature unlike high rates in Kenya but the caveat is Western central banks are buying bonds to suppress interest rates.If their central banks werent engaging in QE,rates in the developed world would be much higher and considering their ludicrous debt to GDP ratios US Debt to GDP ratio is 106% (possibly 1000% if you factor in unfunded liabilities,corporate and household debt),Japan is 250% and China a whooping 300% Debt to GDP so if the US as an example had like our CBK rate of 8.25% debt payments would be impossible and they would implode into a deflationary Armageddon. As simple illustration of the debt bubble in advanced nations and why they are forced to print money to keep rates ultra low is shown by this simple video. Also money velocity ie the rate of flow of money in the economy within the general populous is low causing relatively muted consumer inflation but recently the inflation is leaking out to consumer prices.Western central banks target an inflation rate of 2% and purport that inflation is less than 2% to justify their money printing shenanigans.They measure their inflation rate less food and energy in the inflation basket (totally ridiculous) to achieve their less than 2% inflation rate.Ideally inflation should be 5% and higher and recently even with the cooked inflation figures,the US inflation rate has surpassed the 2% target and if the money printing continues consumer inflation will go wild. Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654
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Our is an agricultural economy if you do QE it ends up inflating real estate. There is isn't much sectors where the money can flow to and be absorbed. Gov,. Njuguna Ndungu tried a QE stimulus from 2009-2011 keeping interest rates low but it went into buying plots and apartments and imports of luxury goods. Very little imagination in our economy-no startups, no IT, very little manufacturing.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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wukan wrote:Our is an agricultural economy if you do QE it ends up inflating real estate. There is isn't much sectors where the money can flow to and be absorbed. Gov,. Njuguna Ndungu tried a QE stimulus from 2009-2011 keeping interest rates low but it went into buying plots and apartments and imports of luxury goods. Very little imagination in our economy-no startups, no IT, very little manufacturing. Bure kabisa huyo Gov. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/1/2017 Posts: 288
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wukan wrote:Our is an agricultural economy if you do QE it ends up inflating real estate. There is isn't much sectors where the money can flow to and be absorbed. Gov,. Njuguna Ndungu tried a QE stimulus from 2009-2011 keeping interest rates low but it went into buying plots and apartments and imports of luxury goods. Very little imagination in our economy-no startups, no IT, very little manufacturing. Hehe,Njuguna Ndungu didnt do explicit QE like Western central banks but repo injections.QE is far worse as repo injections have to be paid back to central bank but QE money stays in the banking system for years and banks can use it to lend it to their buddies to buy stocks,real estate and bonds.Fed tried to reverse the QE process in 2017 to early 2019 (and also raising rates) by selling back the bonds they bought from Wall Street Banks to these banks and then Fed destroys this money from proceeds from the sales of the bonds.This scheme is called Quantitative Tightening (QT).They had hoped to sell down 2 trillion of bonds (but drained only 700 billion) but in Q4 2018 the market became starved of liquidity and sold off massively and the US junk bond market froze up with no new junk bonds issuance for 41 days.Seeing the crisis,the Fed reversed course and started lowering rates in 2019 then the US repo market went nuts in September 2019 with repo rates spiking to 10% above the 1.75% Fed funds rate as possibly some distressed over leveraged hedge funds were unable to get funding from commercial banks who were scared to lend to ponzish hedge funds thus the Fed had to step into the repo market and engaged in massive repo liquidity injections to return repo rates to Fed fund rates.Fed went totally nuts and at some point engaged in 250 billion/day in overnight and term repo injections that they kept rolling over plus started buying 60 billion/month in short dated treasuries to uninvert the yield curve.As a consequence of these Fed money printing injections,US stocks were hitting intraday and/or closing at all time highs but now the coronavirus is creating disruptions that money printing cant offset.What good is printing money if factories in China are shutdown. //.. Very little imagination in our economy-no startups, no IT, very little manufacturing..// I would have preferred this didnt happen.In the advanced nations lots of companies are propped up by this easy money from their central banks.The US shale oil industry,Tesla,General Electric,most European banks and many other firms exist simply because they can borrow cheaply in the junk bond market due to suppressed rates from central banks money printing.These zombie corporations only exist for as long as the central banks keep the fiat pumping scheme going. Borrowing to these undeserving firms plus other lesser ones has created a massive corporate debt bubble in the US thats nearly 10 trillion USD.These sub-prime corporate loans are called leveraged loans in the US and are similar to the sub-prime loans during the housing bubble.To make things worse these,these bogus loans have been bundled up and traded as derivatives in the Collateralized Loan Obligation (CDO) market just like Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) for subprime mortgages during the housing bubble and we all know these CDOs and MBS collapsed in the 2008 crash.The CLO crisis thats about to come since the junk bond market is already cracking could become a nightmare far larger than the 2008 meltdown. A good video on the upcoming CLO disaster captured in this video in a discussion between a former Fed employee and a big money manager. So I dont think such central bank liquidity injections should fund startups since inevitably these firms become massively indebted then implode under the debt load. Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
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