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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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wukan wrote:I think NSE fate lies with CBK. There is a negative feedback loop in the real estate which leading to lower bid prices akin to what happened to NSE from around 2014. That damages a lot of balance sheets which were already damaged from the fall in equities. A downward correction in real estate will hurt a lot more of the wenyenchi balance sheets than equities did. I would expect more pressure on MPC to be more aggressive in the rate cuts or do localized QE. Similar sentiments expressed here https://www.standardmedi...-an-economy-in-distress
Quote:Research shows that house prices are indicators of changes in the economy. In other words, the change in house prices passes information about the pending state of the economy.
The value of a house depends on the rent that the tenant pays to the landlord.
In finance, we discount rent in house values, such that when rent increases, the value of the house must also increase because additional income is being generated and vice versa.
This means that it is only in unsound economies that tenants are unable to pay rent thus opening a window for the decline in house prices.
Quote:Simply put, if a mortgage is for Sh10 million, but the house has declined in value to say Sh7 million, the logical thing to do is to default.
The default will lead to more losses in asset values and low-quality financial institutions.
This explains why debt is largely an option. The debate then is between the interest rate and collateral rates - the rate at which houses are financed with debt - which is the most important to the economy? QE is a zero sum game when you have dollar denominated loans. It spurs growth but will balloon the debt when the value of the shilling falls. This is the same reason the world bank has accused CBK of artificially propping up the value of the shilling but I don't trust those loan sharks one bit.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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whiteowl wrote:wukan wrote:I think NSE fate lies with CBK. There is a negative feedback loop in the real estate which leading to lower bid prices akin to what happened to NSE from around 2014. That damages a lot of balance sheets which were already damaged from the fall in equities. A downward correction in real estate will hurt a lot more of the wenyenchi balance sheets than equities did. I would expect more pressure on MPC to be more aggressive in the rate cuts or do localized QE. Similar sentiments expressed here https://www.standardmedi...-an-economy-in-distress
Quote:Research shows that house prices are indicators of changes in the economy. In other words, the change in house prices passes information about the pending state of the economy.
The value of a house depends on the rent that the tenant pays to the landlord.
In finance, we discount rent in house values, such that when rent increases, the value of the house must also increase because additional income is being generated and vice versa.
This means that it is only in unsound economies that tenants are unable to pay rent thus opening a window for the decline in house prices.
Quote:Simply put, if a mortgage is for Sh10 million, but the house has declined in value to say Sh7 million, the logical thing to do is to default.
The default will lead to more losses in asset values and low-quality financial institutions.
This explains why debt is largely an option. The debate then is between the interest rate and collateral rates - the rate at which houses are financed with debt - which is the most important to the economy? QE is a zero sum game when you have dollar denominated loans. It spurs growth but will balloon the debt when the value of the shilling falls. This is the same reason the world bank has accused CBK of artificially propping up the value of the shilling but I don't trust those loan sharks one bit. Dollar denominated loans and a big chunk is commercial loans which come with tough conditions when you want to renegotiate. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Highly doubt cbk has the withwal to do balance sheet management. Our economy has one real weak pillar which must be resolved before we see growth. Government domestic debt. wukan wrote:I think NSE fate lies with CBK. There is a negative feedback loop in the real estate which leading to lower bid prices akin to what happened to NSE from around 2014. That damages a lot of balance sheets which were already damaged from the fall in equities. A downward correction in real estate will hurt a lot more of the wenyenchi balance sheets than equities did. I would expect more pressure on MPC to be more aggressive in the rate cuts or do localized QE. Similar sentiments expressed here https://www.standardmedi...-an-economy-in-distress
Quote:Research shows that house prices are indicators of changes in the economy. In other words, the change in house prices passes information about the pending state of the economy.
The value of a house depends on the rent that the tenant pays to the landlord.
In finance, we discount rent in house values, such that when rent increases, the value of the house must also increase because additional income is being generated and vice versa.
This means that it is only in unsound economies that tenants are unable to pay rent thus opening a window for the decline in house prices.
Quote:Simply put, if a mortgage is for Sh10 million, but the house has declined in value to say Sh7 million, the logical thing to do is to default.
The default will lead to more losses in asset values and low-quality financial institutions.
This explains why debt is largely an option. The debate then is between the interest rate and collateral rates - the rate at which houses are financed with debt - which is the most important to the economy? Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:EQUITY HOLDING GROUP  Equity appears to be on the verge of a collapse to below 33.00. On the far right we have what appears to be a completed blue wave 1. I expect a small rally to complete wave 2 then a continuation down. The red line at 55.56 is, as always with Elliott Waves, a key resistance which should not be penetrated to the UP side. NB: There is some price point (not shown) which suggest that Equity traded at around 400. I unfortunately could not manage to plot all that data since the program was not responsive. However the data we have above is still sufficient to make an Elliott Wave forecast which I have endeavored to do above. Thanks. My target on this one is around 28 thereabouts then I will review it for a long play. Equity bank is holding above ksh.50 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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mnandii wrote:lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote: Remember our 36/- target on Safaricom. Be ready to SHORT then. Watching this one closely. Safcom may have topped out at 33.50. A move below 25.00 will be conformation that a top is set at 33.50. If that happens then expect Safcom to fall much further to at least 14.00. Safaricom is holding above 30. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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mnandii wrote:KCB  KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B). I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00 Holding above 51 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:mnandii wrote:KCB KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B). I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00 Holding above 51 what can make Kcb trade at below 22?a split/rights/economy collapse or what ??? let me say miracles do happen "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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How does this China virus Coronavirus fit with the waves Bw. @mnandii? Any comment on how it is likely to fit into our local scenario. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:How does this China virus Coronavirus fit with the waves Bw. @mnandii? Any comment on how it is likely to fit into our local scenario. Meanwhile we need results and dividend declarations to tame this fall. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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mlennyma wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:How does this China virus Coronavirus fit with the waves Bw. @mnandii? Any comment on how it is likely to fit into our local scenario. Meanwhile we need results and dividend declarations to tame this fall. No let them delay kiasi. We buy at bargain prices plus enjoy the dividend Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:How does this China virus Coronavirus fit with the waves Bw. @mnandii? Any comment on how it is likely to fit into our local scenario. Don’t buy or sell ‘based on today’s headlines’ As volatility in the market increases because of the coronavirus, Buffett said not to make investing decisions based on day-to-day moves. “You don’t buy or sell your business based on today’s headlines. If it gives you a chance to buy something you like and you can buy it even cheaper, you’re in good luck,” he said, adding that “you can’t predict the market by reading the daily newspaper.” Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,590
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lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.
#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM Quote:bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40
wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove. NSE 20 share closed at 2452. Another cliff fall tomorrow and the road opens to GFC lows
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.
#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM Quote:bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40
wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove. NSE 20 share closed at 2452. Another cliff fall tomorrow and the road opens to GFC lows Safaricom,kcb,equity bank,Eabl,co-op bank are still trading at highs. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:mnandii wrote:KCB KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B). I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00 Holding above 51 watch out for this prophecy "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.
#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM Quote:bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40
wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove. NSE 20 share closed at 2452. Another cliff fall tomorrow and the road opens to GFC lows Getting closer. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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mlennyma wrote:Ericsson wrote:mnandii wrote:KCB KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B). I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00 Holding above 51 watch out for this prophecy Watching keenly Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.
#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM Quote:bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40
wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove. NSE 20 share closed at 2452. Another cliff fall tomorrow and the road opens to GFC lows Getting closer. Economic recession this year Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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Ericsson wrote:lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.
#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM Quote:bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40
wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove. NSE 20 share closed at 2452. Another cliff fall tomorrow and the road opens to GFC lows Getting closer. Economic recession this year More like deleveraging. There's nothing CBK no GOK can do to alleviate the impending catastrophe
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Mukiri wrote:Ericsson wrote:lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.
#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM Quote:bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40
wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove. NSE 20 share closed at 2452. Another cliff fall tomorrow and the road opens to GFC lows Getting closer. Economic recession this year More like deleveraging. There's nothing CBK no GOK can do to alleviate the impending catastrophe Same for Central banks world over Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Ericsson wrote:mlennyma wrote:Ericsson wrote:mnandii wrote:KCB KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B). I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00 Holding above 51 watch out for this prophecy Watching keenly A bounce back yesterday and today. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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