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2020 Watch List - Buy/Sell
Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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Ericsson wrote:FUNKY wrote:mufasa wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:GENGHIS PLAYBOOK 2020…Harnessing Value
Dear Investors,
The Kenyan market still trades at a historical discount despite rally on key counters and potential downward shifts in the market will lead to attractive entry points. Valuations are still attractive for some of the counters especially stocks that missed out on last year’s rally despite their attractive prices and strong fundamentals including EABL, KenGen and KCB. Foreign investor inflow at the NSE is expected to persist during the year from stronger earnings from the key stocks and anchored by a stable currency (estimated at KES 100 - 104), which gained against USD for second year running.
On the economic front, we expect a GDP growth rate of 5.7% with expected protracted challenges in private consumption due deterioration in the business environment. Additionally, we do not see government achieve its fiscal consolidation efforts (5.6% fiscal deficit) expected at 7.0% this year.
By incorporating the key macro and corporate factors, the Genghis Capital Playbook 2020 seeks to bridge the gap between our clients and our research material. We move away from the traditional valuation reports and run our own Kenyan notional Equities and Fixed Income portfolios. These are constructed along similar mandates to those faced by our clients and the performance is tracked and our commentary along with our results published via our Genghis Weekly Report and Bloomberg terminal.
KENGEN IS A VALUE TRAP I will say kengen is value for money currently...it is one of the cheapest share available with very good fundamentals Good fundamentals like delayed FY results Delayed results are due to no auditor general to sign them
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 384
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There is a downward trend. On Jan 10th NASI was 171.36. Today 27th Jan, NASI is at 164.98. Time to load up more shares......
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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xtina wrote:There is a downward trend. On Jan 10th NASI was 171.36. Today 27th Jan, NASI is at 164.98. Time to load up more shares...... Still early Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/17/2018 Posts: 173 Location: Mars
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Locust invasion is the worst in 70 years, almost a Biblical event.
With 34% of the economy relying on the agricultural sector (2018), food security is at risk; food inflation has already blown past a 2 year high.
Let's hope that the horticultural and tea areas remain safe because a shock reduction in export proceeds, combined with increasingly evident need for food imports will put pressure on the Shilling. Freed up money from bank lending will also increase imports.
On the plus side, bank earnings have the best chance of growing.
Telco is at risk; I just saw Telkom offering 50 GB monthly at 3k. Compare to SafariCON.
FDI inflows fell below Uganda last year, a sad event.
Manufacturing sector continues to grapple with low productivity and high costs.
Reserves will need new debt to replenish and they are already at an almost one year low. With an increasingly critical stance taken by World Bank and IMF on Kenya's debt situation, it will be hard to borrow much at commercial rates externally, concessional loans will come with some very uncomfortable conditions and domestic debt will continue to be in high demand, crowding out private sector.
Nonetheless, Safaricom and tier one banks are attractive to long-term investors on a forward PE and dividend yield basis. The entry price is what matters as you want to watch your winners play about, not your losers flop around.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Extraterrestrial wrote:Locust invasion is the worst in 70 years, almost a Biblical event.
With 34% of the economy relying on the agricultural sector (2018), food security is at risk; food inflation has already blown past a 2 year high.
The cost of corruption .The government doesn't care,country is now on campaign mode courtesy of BBI
Let's hope that the horticultural and tea areas remain safe because a shock reduction in export proceeds, combined with increasingly evident need for food imports will put pressure on the Shilling. Freed up money from bank lending will also increase imports.
On the plus side, bank earnings have the best chance of growing.
Explain how with job losses and auctions the order of the day
Telco is at risk; I just saw Telkom offering 50 GB monthly at 3k. Compare to SafariCON.
What about Telkom kenya data/4G/3G network coverage
FDI inflows fell below Uganda last year, a sad event.
Manufacturing sector continues to grapple with low productivity and high costs.
Manufacturing intentionally been killed,if you want to rule people ruthlessly,make them hungry and desperate first
Reserves will need new debt to replenish and they are already at an almost one year low. With an increasingly critical stance taken by World Bank and IMF on Kenya's debt situation, it will be hard to borrow much at commercial rates externally, concessional loans will come with some very uncomfortable conditions and domestic debt will continue to be in high demand, crowding out private sector.
It will take ten years with a good leader to repair the mess created
Nonetheless, Safaricom and tier one banks are attractive to long-term investors on a forward PE and dividend yield basis. The entry price is what matters as you want to watch your winners play about, not your losers flop around. Plus counters with low debt and expanded regionallyWealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 384
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Ericsson wrote:Extraterrestrial wrote:Locust invasion is the worst in 70 years, almost a Biblical event.
With 34% of the economy relying on the agricultural sector (2018), food security is at risk; food inflation has already blown past a 2 year high.
The cost of corruption .The government doesn't care,country is now on campaign mode courtesy of BBI
Let's hope that the horticultural and tea areas remain safe because a shock reduction in export proceeds, combined with increasingly evident need for food imports will put pressure on the Shilling. Freed up money from bank lending will also increase imports.
On the plus side, bank earnings have the best chance of growing.
Explain how with job losses and auctions the order of the day
Telco is at risk; I just saw Telkom offering 50 GB monthly at 3k. Compare to SafariCON.
What about Telkom kenya data/4G/3G network coverage
FDI inflows fell below Uganda last year, a sad event.
Manufacturing sector continues to grapple with low productivity and high costs.
Manufacturing intentionally been killed,if you want to rule people ruthlessly,make them hungry and desperate first
Reserves will need new debt to replenish and they are already at an almost one year low. With an increasingly critical stance taken by World Bank and IMF on Kenya's debt situation, it will be hard to borrow much at commercial rates externally, concessional loans will come with some very uncomfortable conditions and domestic debt will continue to be in high demand, crowding out private sector.
It will take ten years with a good leader to repair the mess created
Nonetheless, Safaricom and tier one banks are attractive to long-term investors on a forward PE and dividend yield basis. The entry price is what matters as you want to watch your winners play about, not your losers flop around. Plus counters with low debt and expanded regionally Dude you are extremely pessimistic
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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xtina wrote:Ericsson wrote:Extraterrestrial wrote:Locust invasion is the worst in 70 years, almost a Biblical event.
With 34% of the economy relying on the agricultural sector (2018), food security is at risk; food inflation has already blown past a 2 year high.
The cost of corruption .The government doesn't care,country is now on campaign mode courtesy of BBI
Let's hope that the horticultural and tea areas remain safe because a shock reduction in export proceeds, combined with increasingly evident need for food imports will put pressure on the Shilling. Freed up money from bank lending will also increase imports.
On the plus side, bank earnings have the best chance of growing.
Explain how with job losses and auctions the order of the day
Telco is at risk; I just saw Telkom offering 50 GB monthly at 3k. Compare to SafariCON.
What about Telkom kenya data/4G/3G network coverage
FDI inflows fell below Uganda last year, a sad event.
Manufacturing sector continues to grapple with low productivity and high costs.
Manufacturing intentionally been killed,if you want to rule people ruthlessly,make them hungry and desperate first
Reserves will need new debt to replenish and they are already at an almost one year low. With an increasingly critical stance taken by World Bank and IMF on Kenya's debt situation, it will be hard to borrow much at commercial rates externally, concessional loans will come with some very uncomfortable conditions and domestic debt will continue to be in high demand, crowding out private sector.
It will take ten years with a good leader to repair the mess created
Nonetheless, Safaricom and tier one banks are attractive to long-term investors on a forward PE and dividend yield basis. The entry price is what matters as you want to watch your winners play about, not your losers flop around. Plus counters with low debt and expanded regionally Dude you are extremely pessimistic It's the reality siste. Talk to people in treasury and you'll literally cry. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,997 Location: Kitale
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After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this: 1.kcb 2.Centum 3.Total 4.Carbacid 5.CIC it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Ebenyo wrote:After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve. Mention the companies you have got rid of Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,997 Location: Kitale
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Ericsson wrote:Ebenyo wrote:After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve. Mention the companies you have got rid of  I don't intend to discourage anyone who is still holding what I discard.As you know in this market even dead stocks have owners.So no need to mention. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Ebenyo wrote:Ericsson wrote:Ebenyo wrote:After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve. Mention the companies you have got rid of I don't intend to discourage anyone who is still holding what I discard.As you know in this market even dead stocks have owners.So no need to mention. The Motley Fool @themotleyfool When you commit to holding your investments at least 5+ years, here's what happens: (1) You buy better companies (2) You study different data and find that the market drops 1 out of 3 years (ho hum) (3) You make lots more money after taxes (4) Less stress, more fun & freedom Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Ericsson wrote:Ebenyo wrote:After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve. Mention the companies you have got rid of I don't intend to discourage anyone who is still holding what I discard.As you know in this market even dead stocks have owners.So no need to mention. The Motley Fool @themotleyfool When you commit to holding your investments at least 5+ years, here's what happens: (1) You buy better companies (2) You study different data and find that the market drops 1 out of 3 years (ho hum) (3) You make lots more money after taxes (4) Less stress, more fun & freedom  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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Ebenyo wrote:After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve. As an experienced NSE trader and guru, I think your portfolio is too big if you are investing for long term. But if buying for speculation(<2yrs), then the potofolio is okay. If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Why not Scangroup? Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/4/2019 Posts: 69 Location: Nairobi
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Swenani wrote:Ebenyo wrote:After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve. As an experienced NSE trader and guru, I think your portfolio is too big if you are investing for long term. But if buying for speculation(<2yrs), then the potofolio is okay. Hmm, why is it too big for long term?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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xtina wrote:Ericsson wrote:Extraterrestrial wrote:Locust invasion is the worst in 70 years, almost a Biblical event.
With 34% of the economy relying on the agricultural sector (2018), food security is at risk; food inflation has already blown past a 2 year high.
The cost of corruption .The government doesn't care,country is now on campaign mode courtesy of BBI
Let's hope that the horticultural and tea areas remain safe because a shock reduction in export proceeds, combined with increasingly evident need for food imports will put pressure on the Shilling. Freed up money from bank lending will also increase imports.
On the plus side, bank earnings have the best chance of growing.
Explain how with job losses and auctions the order of the day
Telco is at risk; I just saw Telkom offering 50 GB monthly at 3k. Compare to SafariCON.
What about Telkom kenya data/4G/3G network coverage
FDI inflows fell below Uganda last year, a sad event.
Manufacturing sector continues to grapple with low productivity and high costs.
Manufacturing intentionally been killed,if you want to rule people ruthlessly,make them hungry and desperate first
Reserves will need new debt to replenish and they are already at an almost one year low. With an increasingly critical stance taken by World Bank and IMF on Kenya's debt situation, it will be hard to borrow much at commercial rates externally, concessional loans will come with some very uncomfortable conditions and domestic debt will continue to be in high demand, crowding out private sector.
It will take ten years with a good leader to repair the mess created
Nonetheless, Safaricom and tier one banks are attractive to long-term investors on a forward PE and dividend yield basis. The entry price is what matters as you want to watch your winners play about, not your losers flop around. Plus counters with low debt and expanded regionally Dude you are extremely pessimistic Understatement
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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babashuge wrote:Swenani wrote:Ebenyo wrote:After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve. As an experienced NSE trader and guru, I think your portfolio is too big if you are investing for long term. But if buying for speculation(<2yrs), then the potofolio is okay. Hmm, why is it too big for long term? Not sure about the value of his portfolios but my thinking is that small traders need not have more than three counters If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Swenani wrote:babashuge wrote:Swenani wrote:Ebenyo wrote:After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve. As an experienced NSE trader and guru, I think your portfolio is too big if you are investing for long term. But if buying for speculation(<2yrs), then the potofolio is okay. Hmm, why is it too big for long term? Not sure about the value of his portfolios but my thinking is that small traders need not have more than three counters What do you consider a small trader? Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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sparkly wrote:Swenani wrote:babashuge wrote:Swenani wrote:Ebenyo wrote:After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve. As an experienced NSE trader and guru, I think your portfolio is too big if you are investing for long term. But if buying for speculation(<2yrs), then the potofolio is okay. Hmm, why is it too big for long term? Not sure about the value of his portfolios but my thinking is that small traders need not have more than three counters What do you consider a small trader? Minority shareholders in any company If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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sparkly wrote:Swenani wrote:babashuge wrote:Swenani wrote:Ebenyo wrote:After going through some good beatings last year in my portfolio,i have gotten rid of some companies and now it looks like this:
1.kcb
2.Centum
3.Total
4.Carbacid
5.CIC
it's not perfect yet but I'm working work hard to improve. As an experienced NSE trader and guru, I think your portfolio is too big if you are investing for long term. But if buying for speculation(<2yrs), then the potofolio is okay. Hmm, why is it too big for long term? Not sure about the value of his portfolios but my thinking is that small traders need not have more than three counters What do you consider a small trader? Someone who is yet to fully understand market dynamics,detail analysis of a company's financial statements. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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