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KCB Rights
MaichBlack
#81 Posted : Tuesday, July 06, 2010 12:58:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
@pkoli - Most Wazuarians don't doubt the future of KCB. Actually most of them, me included are planning to get a stake. But as @the deal correctly states, most of us, and with good reasons, expect the price to go lower before it appreciates. The question is "what is the right time to get in?". Even if you are a long term investor, why would you want to get in at 18 - 19/= when you can get in at 15 - 16/=?

I am with @the deal on this. This share will surely trade below 17/= in the next couple of months. I could be wrong, and if I am I will honourably accept. Next year, we will be in this bus together - but one of us will have paid more fare for the same journey!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#82 Posted : Tuesday, July 06, 2010 1:04:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
@All - Doesn't the 10% rule apply to rights? The KCB-R was at one point trading at -20% yesterday. As I write this, it is currently trading at -42%!

What happens when the price of the rights gets to 0/=? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Will we say the price is now "in a stable condition"?Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
stocksmaster
#83 Posted : Tuesday, July 06, 2010 1:27:46 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 410
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
The true test for the KCB Share will come as early as tomorrow when the share starts to trade below Ksh 18. With the rights option already edging towards the Ksh 0.50 range, the market is already valuing the share at the Ksh 17.50 levels (Ksh 17 + Ksh 0.50).

Happy hunting.
the deal
#84 Posted : Tuesday, July 06, 2010 1:56:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
MaichBlack wrote:
@All - Doesn't the 10% rule apply to rights? The KCB-R was at one point trading at -20% yesterday. As I write this, it is currently trading at -42%!

What happens when the price of the rights gets to 0/=? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Will we say the price is now "in a stable condition"?Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

hehehe theres someone with a 1.5 mil buy order at 18.20 on the normal board...
VituVingiSana
#85 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 9:31:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
We shud go back to KCB... unless KCB is financing KQ's planes...

BTW, why is it that none of the local banks finance KQ's planes?
Or at least sydicate a loan coz each plane (777) is $120mn
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#86 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 9:39:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@vvs, Exim Bank offers very competitive (subsidized by the US Govt?) interest rates to promote American business. Local banks can't compete.
VituVingiSana
#87 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 10:37:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
@vvs, Exim Bank offers very competitive (subsidized by the US Govt?) interest rates to promote American business. Local banks can't compete.

Though some of the loans shown on KQ's balance sheet are from Barclays...

Local banks need to start large scale syndication loans...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
PKoli
#88 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 11:33:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@MaichBlack,

I still stand by my word, KCB will not go below 17. The moment the shares starting trading at 17, the fund managers will make such huge orders that you will daily volumes of 100m! You will not compete with them. I will not worry so much about a bob or 50 cents. I have convinved myself KCB is cheap at any price below 19, so I buy.

Two months ago, I told people about CFC. I bought at any price below 50 bob and I will soon offload half my holdings after making a cool 90% return in just two months!
the deal
#89 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 1:31:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
PKoli wrote:
@MaichBlack,

I still stand by my word, KCB will not go below 17. The moment the shares starting trading at 17, the fund managers will make such huge orders that you will daily volumes of 100m! You will not compete with them. I will not worry so much about a bob or 50 cents. I have convinved myself KCB is cheap at any price below 19, so I buy.

Two months ago, I told people about CFC. I bought at any price below 50 bob and I will soon offload half my holdings after making a cool 90% return in just two months!

yeaah @Pkoli i liked your posts on CFC...u are one of the people who convinced me to board that bus...but on KCB you are wrong man...
Kausha
#90 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 2:33:07 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
What am I missing- Rights @0.70 and the share trading at 18.25 + comishon. Surely doesn't it make sense to buy rights.

I am very curious to see how this price will go after rights. The bank better have magnificent results for the first half else there was will be a fracas on the selling side.

2012
#91 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 5:36:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
...and it's only day 7

BBI will solve it
:)
Gordon Gekko
#92 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 6:26:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Dumped my rights today at 0.70, so a post rights price of 16.20 ceteris paribus will be OK for me. Lower will be a gain.
mkonomtupu
#93 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 6:45:03 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
It's been quite some time since i came to wazua. I was just looking at the posts and it seems most of us are conservative when it comes to investment. Why do we find it so hard to give a company capital to grow ? I have invested in some unquoted shares and when you invest you do so without worrying about the price fluctuations. If the business plan is good and you know the management can execute, why not invest. I wonder how many of us would have given Michael Joseph capital in the year 2000?
@Pkoli...Imara kama simba
Kausha
#94 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 7:05:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Chief,

The problem is there is no business plan here. Mortgages and sending money to flog Tz and Ug operations don't amount to a meaningful business plan.

MJ would have gotten money then, ARM and Kengen easily raised money because they had tangible business plans. All investors want is a sound business plan, not the size of the balance sheet and regional presence.
the deal
#95 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 7:11:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Kausha wrote:
Chief,

The problem is there is no business plan here. Mortgages and sending money to flog Tz and Ug operations don't amount to a meaningful business plan.

MJ would have gotten money then, ARM and Kengen easily raised money because they had tangible business plans. All investors want is a sound business plan, not the size of the balance sheet and regional presence.

well said...
mkonomtupu
#96 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 7:22:00 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@Kausha,

That's not what i get from the posts above its more like most wazuarians don't doubt the future of KCB they just don't want to provide the capital but will jump in once the capital has been provided. That's where i have a problem.

As for KCB you have to throw money into mortgages not for retail buyers but the big property developers who then resell to retail buyers. I think that where KCB is headed looking at what they have done with GOSS in juba. For the record am not endorsing their business plan as solid but KCB took in too much deposits straining its ratios so there is a lot of funds to free up for onward lending.

As ARM this share was a measly 11-16/- before the Actis put in funds to clean its processes. Kengen got capital because they offered a high rate of return for the bond 12.5%(very expensive if you ask me) I don't think they would have done better if they had done equity.
As for MJ remember a SIM card in that year was almost 2500/-
mkonomtupu
#97 Posted : Wednesday, July 07, 2010 7:43:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Kausha wrote:
Chief,

The problem is there is no business plan here. Mortgages and sending money to flog Tz and Ug operations don't amount to a meaningful business plan.

.


TZ has capital need of 0.8 million and Ug 1.4b, kenyan operations around 12b. where is the flogging?

S&L had a profit of 77 million in 2005 and in 2009 it had a profit of 1.016 billion. It makes sense to invest in the mortgage.
Gordon Gekko
#98 Posted : Thursday, July 08, 2010 8:55:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Say you have 1000 rights. Sell 900 rights. In your PAL, purchase the 100 shares remaining in your rights (partial acceptance of new shares). Then also purchase 900 additional shares together with the 100. Am I missing something or is this a cow waiting to be milked? smile smile
qw25041985
#99 Posted : Saturday, August 07, 2010 4:06:09 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@pkoli. Are you sure over 800 milliön additional shares of k.b.c wount affect the price.
If u think the price wount be negatively affectd y are fund managers one the sidelines. Its coz they are awaitin 4 the price to drop ....so rush at ur own peril.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
guru267
#100 Posted : Saturday, August 07, 2010 1:23:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
qw25041985 wrote:
@pkoli. Are you sure over 800 milliön additional shares of k.b.c wount affect the price.
If u think the price wount be negatively affectd y are fund managers one the sidelines. Its coz they are awaitin 4 the price to drop ....so rush at ur own peril.

@qw... Actually fund managers have entered into KCB quarter way and are waiting for the results... There is no way they can sit fully on the sidelines with a fair chance of an oversubscription
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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