THE NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

A higher bottom is in place at 2566. Now expect higher highs with targets at 3093 and 3400s

MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!

though the situation for the banks I am in isn't so dire. Record profits expected for 2019 despite the NPLs.

A significant part of those performances are in capital gains. For long term investors who never sell, Div yield is probably a more relevant metric.

The Economy and stocks are likely to continue falling.

Remember our 36/- target on Safaricom. Be ready to SHORT then.

The support level at 31 is still very weak.

@mnandii, everything hit the bedrock otherwise we will be drilling into a insatiable borehole. Courtesy of linturi et Al🤣.
But truly, it feels like am walking alone in a dark cemetery on a bloody rainy day.
Wazua is moaning, systems are on flywire mood, ongeza mzigo on top gear after shafting punguza mzigo, my wallet is shrinking faster than I can inflate, my brood is on an exponential growth mood. I need to get messier now.

I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.

Having dodged a fiscal crisis in the capping regime, treasury and cbk will be doing alot financial gymnastics to keep this ship afloat both on the interest rate and exchange rate fronts. The needless demonetization exercise will bite a chunk off annual growth rates. I expect this to be a politically expensive year for the regime and likely a course changing one as political capital is expended to assuage civil unease/unrest as economic hardships bite.