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Why investing in the NSE is fool's gold and a waste
Rank: Member Joined: 3/1/2019 Posts: 170 Location: Nairobi
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My little experience and research tells me stock picking and trying to beat the market never works. Over 90% of stock pickers and market timers lose money. The recommended approach by the likes of Oracle of Omaha is just buying into companies you believe in and hold for as long as possible while completely ignoring market ups and downs i.e market fluctuations should not influence your decisions to buy since, in the long run, the market always goes up.
In Kenya, I am buying into current blue chip stocks, will stay happy with the little growth plus dividends. trying to predict the next big jump in the small companies will just burn me
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 767
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obiero wrote:tom_boy wrote:tom_boy wrote:When I reflect on my NSE journey, my major failing has been selling out too early. Examples of shares I held long ago that I sold too early, for no apparent reason include
Equity bank - I held these at initial listing before the very first split.
Safaricom - bought at 6sh and sold at 16 thinking the market was too hot and about to crash. This was in late 2016.
ARM - bought at 9shs many yrs ago. Sold at 15 shortly after. Little did I know I could have ridden it all the was past 100.
C and G at around 10 bob
Sasini at around 10bob
Some stocks I have gotten lucky.
Bought Uchumi at 10bob and sold at 20bob in a space of about 2 months then the scandals happened and price never recovered.
Got KQ at 7 bob, those years and sold at 94shs. Pure luck.
I also remember losing a cummulative 6 figure sum on this same NSE.
All in all, I am wiser now.
I know when others are running scared, its time to buckle down and invest.
My portfolio consists of
NIC at 23 (not complaining)
Bamburi at 183(sold at 150)
WTH at 160 holding
FTGH at 4.5holding.will avg down
Britam at 10.30will avg down
LKL at 4.30holding
TPS at 21.50holding
Jubilee at 460holding
KPL at 3.50sold at 4.50
Kengen at 7.05 holding
Equity at 40averaging down
KCB at 44averaging down
Kk at 15sold at 22
Purchased
CFC at 90.50
Safcon at 21.50
NIC at 22
Of course these are recently acquired positions.
My philosophy is that when everyone thinks the end will not come, its doom and gloom all round, then the light will finally come. Are we there yet, I have no clue, but that time will come.
Have lost less than 10% of my portfolio thus far. Major anxiety with FTGH but looks like company is moving along slowly. Still feels risky to me. My strategy is equal weight on all shares at the point of purchase i.e I put down the same amount of cash on any stock I invest in. That strategy is difficult to ensure success, since different companies face different dynamics, from management, scale etc.. I would suggest you decipher fundamentals keenly and pursue good dividend paying stocks Your views are valid They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 767
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To be able to increase wealth, one must be able to keep more than they lose. Stock investing is no different. I aim to minimise risk before I maximize returns. Each stock constitutes only 8-9% of the my portfolio. Its a mix of growth and dividend stocks. I believe that I have no clue of how an individual stock will perform in future so I try not to predict. Therefore, there is no difference between a so called blue chip and a penny stock in terms of future price appreciation predictions. Thats why I put equal amounts on each stock. The idea of core and fringe holdings is hogwash to me. To illustrate, KQ was once a pennystock, so was ARM, Nation media. These grew to heady heights before their current collapse. So I give all my stocks an equal chance to make me money but limit the downside to max 9% if a stock was to crush and burn like ARM. Then I wait patiently, buying incrementaly when opportunity arises but always trying to maintain a balance of x amount actually invested in a stock. They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,212 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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tom_boy wrote:tom_boy wrote:When I reflect on my NSE journey, my major failing has been selling out too early. Examples of shares I held long ago that I sold too early, for no apparent reason include
Equity bank - I held these at initial listing before the very first split.
Safaricom - bought at 6sh and sold at 16 thinking the market was too hot and about to crash. This was in late 2016.
ARM - bought at 9shs many yrs ago. Sold at 15 shortly after. Little did I know I could have ridden it all the was past 100.
C and G at around 10 bob
Sasini at around 10bob
Some stocks I have gotten lucky.
Bought Uchumi at 10bob and sold at 20bob in a space of about 2 months then the scandals happened and price never recovered.
Got KQ at 7 bob, those years and sold at 94shs. Pure luck.
I also remember losing a cummulative 6 figure sum on this same NSE.
All in all, I am wiser now.
I know when others are running scared, its time to buckle down and invest.
My portfolio consists of
NIC at 23 (not complaining)
Bamburi at 183(sold at 150)
WTH at 160 holding
FTGH at 4.5holding.will avg down
Britam at 10.30will avg down
LKL at 4.30holding
TPS at 21.50holding
Jubilee at 460holding
KPL at 3.50sold at 4.50
Kengen at 7.05 holding
Equity at 40averaging down
KCB at 44averaging down
Kk at 15sold at 22
Purchased
CFC at 90.50
Safcon at 21.50
NIC at 22
Of course these are recently acquired positions.
My philosophy is that when everyone thinks the end will not come, its doom and gloom all round, then the light will finally come. Are we there yet, I have no clue, but that time will come.
Have lost less than 10% of my portfolio thus far. Major anxiety with FTGH but looks like company is moving along slowly. Still feels risky to me. My strategy is equal weight on all shares at the point of purchase i.e I put down the same amount of cash on any stock I invest in.  When we told you late last year and early this year to sell everything you have in the casino and invest in tangible assets in DC you alongside comedians like Sir S Mutaga IV insisted with voice ya daboo that you were making millions on NSE. Wapi? S Mutaga fled to Ruhengeri, Rwanda to cool heels in the BUSH after loan sharks came after him for his shirt when all his holdings hit the red and servicing his loans became impossible. The man is now weatherbeaten and haggard gnashing teeth terribly. A pale shadow of himself. We warn you for the LAST time. SELL CASINO HOLDINGS NOW or regret bitterly!
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 767
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MugundaMan wrote:tom_boy wrote:tom_boy wrote:When I reflect on my NSE journey, my major failing has been selling out too early. Examples of shares I held long ago that I sold too early, for no apparent reason include
Equity bank - I held these at initial listing before the very first split.
Safaricom - bought at 6sh and sold at 16 thinking the market was too hot and about to crash. This was in late 2016.
ARM - bought at 9shs many yrs ago. Sold at 15 shortly after. Little did I know I could have ridden it all the was past 100.
C and G at around 10 bob
Sasini at around 10bob
Some stocks I have gotten lucky.
Bought Uchumi at 10bob and sold at 20bob in a space of about 2 months then the scandals happened and price never recovered.
Got KQ at 7 bob, those years and sold at 94shs. Pure luck.
I also remember losing a cummulative 6 figure sum on this same NSE.
All in all, I am wiser now.
I know when others are running scared, its time to buckle down and invest.
My portfolio consists of
NIC at 23 (not complaining)
Bamburi at 183(sold at 150)
WTH at 160 holding
FTGH at 4.5holding.will avg down
Britam at 10.30will avg down
LKL at 4.30holding
TPS at 21.50holding
Jubilee at 460holding
KPL at 3.50sold at 4.50
Kengen at 7.05 holding
Equity at 40averaging down
KCB at 44averaging down
Kk at 15sold at 22
Purchased
CFC at 90.50
Safcon at 21.50
NIC at 22
Of course these are recently acquired positions.
My philosophy is that when everyone thinks the end will not come, its doom and gloom all round, then the light will finally come. Are we there yet, I have no clue, but that time will come.
Have lost less than 10% of my portfolio thus far. Major anxiety with FTGH but looks like company is moving along slowly. Still feels risky to me. My strategy is equal weight on all shares at the point of purchase i.e I put down the same amount of cash on any stock I invest in. When we told you late last year and early this year to sell everything you have in the casino and invest in tangible assets in DC you alongside comedians like Sir S Mutaga IV insisted with voice ya daboo that you were making millions on NSE. Wapi? S Mutaga fled to Ruhengeri, Rwanda to cool heels in the BUSH after loan sharks came after him for his shirt when all his holdings hit the red and servicing his loans became impossible. The man is now weatherbeaten and haggard gnashing teeth terribly. A pale shadow of himself. We warn you for the LAST time. SELL CASINO HOLDINGS NOW or regret bitterly! Your views are valid. They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 767
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tom_boy wrote:tom_boy wrote:When I reflect on my NSE journey, my major failing has been selling out too early. Examples of shares I held long ago that I sold too early, for no apparent reason include
Equity bank - I held these at initial listing before the very first split.
Safaricom - bought at 6sh and sold at 16 thinking the market was too hot and about to crash. This was in late 2016.
ARM - bought at 9shs many yrs ago. Sold at 15 shortly after. Little did I know I could have ridden it all the was past 100.
C and G at around 10 bob
Sasini at around 10bob
Some stocks I have gotten lucky.
Bought Uchumi at 10bob and sold at 20bob in a space of about 2 months then the scandals happened and price never recovered.
Got KQ at 7 bob, those years and sold at 94shs. Pure luck.
I also remember losing a cummulative 6 figure sum on this same NSE.
All in all, I am wiser now.
I know when others are running scared, its time to buckle down and invest.
My portfolio consists of
NIC at 23 (not complaining)
Bamburi at 183(sold at 150)
WTH at 160 holding
FTGH at 4.5holding.will avg down
Britam at 10.30will avg down
LKL at 4.30holding
TPS at 21.50holding
Jubilee at 460holding
KPL at 3.50sold at 4.50
Kengen at 7.05 holding
Equity at 40averaging down
KCB at 44averaging down
Kk at 15sold at 22
Purchased
CFC at 90.50
Safcon at 21.50
NIC at 22
Of course these are recently acquired positions.
My philosophy is that when everyone thinks the end will not come, its doom and gloom all round, then the light will finally come. Are we there yet, I have no clue, but that time will come.
Have lost less than 10% of my portfolio thus far. Major anxiety with FTGH but looks like company is moving along slowly. Still feels risky to me. My strategy is equal weight on all shares at the point of purchase i.e I put down the same amount of cash on any stock I invest in. Correction, this portfolio is 2.8% down. Amazing. This is without counting dividends. They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,226 Location: nairobi
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tom_boy wrote:tom_boy wrote:tom_boy wrote:When I reflect on my NSE journey, my major failing has been selling out too early. Examples of shares I held long ago that I sold too early, for no apparent reason include
Equity bank - I held these at initial listing before the very first split.
Safaricom - bought at 6sh and sold at 16 thinking the market was too hot and about to crash. This was in late 2016.
ARM - bought at 9shs many yrs ago. Sold at 15 shortly after. Little did I know I could have ridden it all the was past 100.
C and G at around 10 bob
Sasini at around 10bob
Some stocks I have gotten lucky.
Bought Uchumi at 10bob and sold at 20bob in a space of about 2 months then the scandals happened and price never recovered.
Got KQ at 7 bob, those years and sold at 94shs. Pure luck.
I also remember losing a cummulative 6 figure sum on this same NSE.
All in all, I am wiser now.
I know when others are running scared, its time to buckle down and invest.
My portfolio consists of
NIC at 23 (not complaining)
Bamburi at 183(sold at 150)
WTH at 160 holding
FTGH at 4.5holding.will avg down
Britam at 10.30will avg down
LKL at 4.30holding
TPS at 21.50holding
Jubilee at 460holding
KPL at 3.50sold at 4.50
Kengen at 7.05 holding
Equity at 40averaging down
KCB at 44averaging down
Kk at 15sold at 22
Purchased
CFC at 90.50
Safcon at 21.50
NIC at 22
Of course these are recently acquired positions.
My philosophy is that when everyone thinks the end will not come, its doom and gloom all round, then the light will finally come. Are we there yet, I have no clue, but that time will come.
Have lost less than 10% of my portfolio thus far. Major anxiety with FTGH but looks like company is moving along slowly. Still feels risky to me. My strategy is equal weight on all shares at the point of purchase i.e I put down the same amount of cash on any stock I invest in. Correction, this portfolio is 2.8% down. Amazing. This is without counting dividends. Be careful with your percentages chief.. You may make a fatal loss in trade unknowingly!
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 767
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obiero wrote:tom_boy wrote:tom_boy wrote:tom_boy wrote:When I reflect on my NSE journey, my major failing has been selling out too early. Examples of shares I held long ago that I sold too early, for no apparent reason include
Equity bank - I held these at initial listing before the very first split.
Safaricom - bought at 6sh and sold at 16 thinking the market was too hot and about to crash. This was in late 2016.
ARM - bought at 9shs many yrs ago. Sold at 15 shortly after. Little did I know I could have ridden it all the was past 100.
C and G at around 10 bob
Sasini at around 10bob
Some stocks I have gotten lucky.
Bought Uchumi at 10bob and sold at 20bob in a space of about 2 months then the scandals happened and price never recovered.
Got KQ at 7 bob, those years and sold at 94shs. Pure luck.
I also remember losing a cummulative 6 figure sum on this same NSE.
All in all, I am wiser now.
I know when others are running scared, its time to buckle down and invest.
My portfolio consists of
NIC at 23 (not complaining)
Bamburi at 183(sold at 150)
WTH at 160 holding
FTGH at 4.5holding.will avg down
Britam at 10.30will avg down
LKL at 4.30holding
TPS at 21.50holding
Jubilee at 460holding
KPL at 3.50sold at 4.50
Kengen at 7.05 holding
Equity at 40averaging down
KCB at 44averaging down
Kk at 15sold at 22
Purchased
CFC at 90.50
Safcon at 21.50
NIC at 22
Of course these are recently acquired positions.
My philosophy is that when everyone thinks the end will not come, its doom and gloom all round, then the light will finally come. Are we there yet, I have no clue, but that time will come.
Have lost less than 10% of my portfolio thus far. Major anxiety with FTGH but looks like company is moving along slowly. Still feels risky to me. My strategy is equal weight on all shares at the point of purchase i.e I put down the same amount of cash on any stock I invest in. Correction, this portfolio is 2.8% down. Amazing. This is without counting dividends. Be careful with your percentages chief.. You may make a fatal loss in trade unknowingly! Boss, numbers dont lie. Total loss divide by total amount invested in current holding x 100 = 2.8% as at about 2wks ago. They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/1/2019 Posts: 170 Location: Nairobi
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tom_boy wrote:obiero wrote:tom_boy wrote:tom_boy wrote:tom_boy wrote:When I reflect on my NSE journey, my major failing has been selling out too early. Examples of shares I held long ago that I sold too early, for no apparent reason include
Equity bank - I held these at initial listing before the very first split.
Safaricom - bought at 6sh and sold at 16 thinking the market was too hot and about to crash. This was in late 2016.
ARM - bought at 9shs many yrs ago. Sold at 15 shortly after. Little did I know I could have ridden it all the was past 100.
C and G at around 10 bob
Sasini at around 10bob
Some stocks I have gotten lucky.
Bought Uchumi at 10bob and sold at 20bob in a space of about 2 months then the scandals happened and price never recovered.
Got KQ at 7 bob, those years and sold at 94shs. Pure luck.
I also remember losing a cummulative 6 figure sum on this same NSE.
All in all, I am wiser now.
I know when others are running scared, its time to buckle down and invest.
My portfolio consists of
NIC at 23 (not complaining)
Bamburi at 183(sold at 150)
WTH at 160 holding
FTGH at 4.5holding.will avg down
Britam at 10.30will avg down
LKL at 4.30holding
TPS at 21.50holding
Jubilee at 460holding
KPL at 3.50sold at 4.50
Kengen at 7.05 holding
Equity at 40averaging down
KCB at 44averaging down
Kk at 15sold at 22
Purchased
CFC at 90.50
Safcon at 21.50
NIC at 22
Of course these are recently acquired positions.
My philosophy is that when everyone thinks the end will not come, its doom and gloom all round, then the light will finally come. Are we there yet, I have no clue, but that time will come.
Have lost less than 10% of my portfolio thus far. Major anxiety with FTGH but looks like company is moving along slowly. Still feels risky to me. My strategy is equal weight on all shares at the point of purchase i.e I put down the same amount of cash on any stock I invest in. Correction, this portfolio is 2.8% down. Amazing. This is without counting dividends. Be careful with your percentages chief.. You may make a fatal loss in trade unknowingly! Boss, numbers dont lie. Total loss divide by total amount invested in current holding x 100 = 2.8% as at about 2wks ago. Unless your portfolio is a serious amount of money (Over 100M), I don't see the point for splitting it into so many baskets because it will be too much work with insignificant profits, I mean even if each counter holds Kes 1M and one out of 10 triples in value, it's just 3M, take out the losses in other counters you remain with a profit of less than 1M after tracking 15 counters for a year, seems like a rat race.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 767
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@newmoney, I forgive you. You have evidently never heard of index linked funds and you have definitely never heard that the Oracle of Omaha actually recomends them to non expert investors like me. You must also obviously do not believe in limiting your downside before before attempting to maximise upside. I think my portfolio is working very well. A small upward blip in the market and I will be in profit territory. I agree its not the most exciting portfolio. Incidentally, I dont track my stocks. I just buy and forget. May have a cursory glance once a month or so. I sell rarely. Will upload my exact current portfolio soon. Then we compare notes next year. They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
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Why investing in the NSE is fool's gold and a waste
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