Been exactly 2 years since Kibaki announced we've discovered oilon 26th March 2012.
Those were really tough times. Inflation then(Feb 2012) was at 16.7% vs 6.86% as at last released figures for Feb.
https://www.centralbank.go.ke/ A 10% drop.CBK had been forced to reign in on this beast by increasing the cbr from 6.25% mid 2011 progressively to 18% eventually in December 2011 and maintaining the rate in their subsequent meeting on 2nd Feb 2012 vs current cbr of 8.5%.
At the time of the oil announcement, we were at 3,300 levels on the NSE and despite great EPS growths of member 44% FY2011 and simba 34% same year, there was no way they were going to march those impressive figures with both inflation and cbr in double digit figures.The oil news was certainly God sent and this had a heavy bearing on the level of FDI as oil firms came calling.The NSE gradually started rising as the level of hope rose.
Fast forward to 2014 and though the economic indicators look favourable than they were then,maintaining say the cbr and inflation rate at current levels will not be a walk in the park as Government expenditure keeps rising with the implementation of the devolved government, and hence crowding out the private sector.Dont forget the FED taper and its implication on emerging and frontier markets.
We therefore need a spark that will excite the market,a eurobond or something like that otherwise the bears will make a mockery of the bulls in 2014. The technicals as evidenced by @Mnandii's Elliot waves and @Hisah's Fibo point to this.
@SufficientlyP