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Has the real estate bubble burst????
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kenyan2019
#101 Posted : Monday, July 01, 2019 3:26:56 PM
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Joined: 12/30/2018
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Nairobi house approvals slump to 5-year low https://www.businessdail...8274-2jlvxoz/index.html via @BD_Africa
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hardwood
#102 Posted : Monday, July 01, 2019 3:59:42 PM
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Joined: 7/28/2015
Posts: 9,562
Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
If suraya has "collapsed" then the real estate situation is dire.
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Gathige
#103 Posted : Monday, July 01, 2019 6:52:52 PM
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Joined: 3/29/2011
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hardwood wrote:
If suraya has "collapsed" then the real estate situation is dire.



The real estate barons were the Kirimas and the River Road wazees, those of the Magomano, Reke Maarie etc type.

Those who invested long time in the bottom of the pyramid sector. The middle class gets hit by schocks and the effects reverberates in the whole sector
"Things that matter most must never be at the mercy of things that matter least." Goethe
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Angelica _ann
#104 Posted : Monday, July 01, 2019 7:12:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
Gathige wrote:
hardwood wrote:
If suraya has "collapsed" then the real estate situation is dire.



The real estate barons were the Kirimas and the River Road wazees, those of the Magomano, Reke Maarie etc type.

Those who invested long time in the bottom of the pyramid sector. The middle class gets hit by schocks and the effects reverberates in the whole sector


Good thing is that bank rates are controlled, otherwise things would be thicker for Wanjiku!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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hardwood
#105 Posted : Monday, July 01, 2019 8:38:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/28/2015
Posts: 9,562
Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
hardwood wrote:
If suraya has "collapsed" then the real estate situation is dire.



The real estate barons were the Kirimas and the River Road wazees, those of the Magomano, Reke Maarie etc type.

Those who invested long time in the bottom of the pyramid sector. The middle class gets hit by schocks and the effects reverberates in the whole sector


Good thing is that bank rates are controlled, otherwise things would be thicker for Wanjiku!!!


A friend tells me his mortgage payments went down by over 100k per month when the rates were controlled. He's the happiest man.
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Xymalos
#106 Posted : Monday, July 01, 2019 9:52:43 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/14/2015
Posts: 97
Location: Kenya
nairobby wrote:
wukan wrote:
nairobby wrote:
dunkang wrote:
OH MY GOD!!!

Even plots now are not moving!


Things are tough.The cycle that began in 2003 is coming to an end. Especially in upper-mid to high end.

However, every downturn has its opportunities. Time to buy low, there's deals everywhere if you have money.

This cycle should be bottoming out at around 2021 before it starts going up again.

Not many new projects are coming up compared to a few years ago so the oversupply is getting slowly absorbed.


The real estate cycle is around 18-20 years. There is a period of correction lasting almost a decade. The first post-independence boom was around 1973 when most the Nairobi mid-class estates were built. The boom lasted till 1991 before a decade of correction. Current cycle will have another decade of correction which takes us to 2030's.

The places that get hit during corrections are the suburbs. Bargain hunters will spend on revitalizing older neighborhoods which already have the amenities instead of going for greenfield projects. Which explains the renaissance that @Tony stark is talking about.


2030 is too far. The correction has already begun! We have a mere oversupply and a tough economic environment.

The oversupply is currently being dealt with as there's not much new development coming to market.

My assumption is that the economic environment will improve. Perhaps that's where I'm wrong. But I believe by 2021/22 we'll have hit the bottom and after that prices will stabilize, and start appreciating slowly.


Yes 2030 too far. Unlike in the past, this housing recovery will be much sooner because we have a much bigger population with ability to buy houses (even second houses or third houses).
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sqft
#107 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2020 2:16:03 PM
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Joined: 1/10/2015
Posts: 961
Location: Kenya
Suraya home buyers risk millions after court allows auction of Kiambu road land

https://www.businessdail...610334-ltfe8h/index.html
Proverbs 13:11 Dishonest money dwindles away, but whoever gathers money little by little makes it grow.
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Ericsson
#108 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2020 2:41:03 PM
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Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
[quote=sqft]Suraya home buyers risk millions after court allows auction of Kiambu road land

https://www.businessdail...10334-ltfe8h/index.html[/quote]
The Surayas became greedy
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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