Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Has the real estate bubble burst????
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
|
alma1 wrote:MugundaMan wrote:alma1 wrote:Wakanyugi don't worry. It's a problem we suffer as Kenyans. Direct translation.
Real estate, property means the same thing. House can be included in real estate, property. kaburoti is also real estate, property...
But Kenyans somehow confuse property with house. Nyumba. Forgetting that even stocks are property....sigh!! Alma, where has this been in dispute in this entire thread? Wewe ni kengine who seems to just want to "talk" for the sake of talking. Wakanyugi tells you that flipping also means that you buy a kabruti and builds and sell. You insist that's developing. You quote wikipedia about "property"... I mean, English is difficult but not like that. Wakanyugi is totally correct. The flipping market has being going in Kenya for some time now. Unfortunately, even that market is fizzling out. Say it's a semantics issue. But if you go to ADD class of 1999, there is a thesis by a student who shall remain nameless that talks about buying and selling kabrutis as a flipping mechanism. How to profit from flipping etc. Lakini ninaona masomo kwako sio kitu cha rahisi. Kapish? And yes, I do enjoy watching you squirm in being uninformed. Call it my downtime. Wakanyugs is the one who quoted wiki so you do not even know who said what. Anyway, I give up. I will let sensible people determine what flipping is instead of debating some of you cretins who talk much but say zero on the issue of real estate. https://www.youtube.com/...query=flipping+property
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/3/2007 Posts: 1,634
|
MugundaMan wrote:alma1 wrote:MugundaMan wrote:alma1 wrote:Wakanyugi don't worry. It's a problem we suffer as Kenyans. Direct translation.
Real estate, property means the same thing. House can be included in real estate, property. kaburoti is also real estate, property...
But Kenyans somehow confuse property with house. Nyumba. Forgetting that even stocks are property....sigh!! Alma, where has this been in dispute in this entire thread? Wewe ni kengine who seems to just want to "talk" for the sake of talking. Wakanyugi tells you that flipping also means that you buy a kabruti and builds and sell. You insist that's developing. You quote wikipedia about "property"... I mean, English is difficult but not like that. Wakanyugi is totally correct. The flipping market has being going in Kenya for some time now. Unfortunately, even that market is fizzling out. Say it's a semantics issue. But if you go to ADD class of 1999, there is a thesis by a student who shall remain nameless that talks about buying and selling kabrutis as a flipping mechanism. How to profit from flipping etc. Lakini ninaona masomo kwako sio kitu cha rahisi. Kapish? And yes, I do enjoy watching you squirm in being uninformed. Call it my downtime. Wakanyugs is the one who quoted wiki so you do not even know who said what. Anyway, I give up. I will let sensible people determine what flipping is instead of debating some of you cretins who talk much but say zero on the issue of real estate. https://www.youtube.com/...query=flipping+property
As AA would say: Hii kisungu ulikuja na meli yawa. Have a good day "The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
|
Is this a joke or what? LINKDumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
|
Fyatu wrote:Is this a joke or what? LINK I stopped reading this article when I reached "the supply of houses exceeds demand"
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/9/2007 Posts: 13,095
|
When are these prices collapsing, really? I have see so many apartments still coming up, currently. Some going for prices as high as 30M for an apartment. Weird, on one side its being said the prices are coming down and that sector is collapsing. On the other side, millions are being poured into similar projects and being quoted at very high prices. What is actually happening?
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,187 Location: Nairobi
|
washiku wrote:When are these prices collapsing, really?
I have see so many apartments still coming up, currently. Some going for prices as high as 30M for an apartment. Weird, on one side its being said the prices are coming down and that sector is collapsing. On the other side, millions are being poured into similar projects and being quoted at very high prices.
What is actually happening? Some projects were already in progress and these will likely be completed. There is little value in an incomplete project to the developer or financier. What will be interesting to see is how many NEW projects broke ground in 2H 2018. Why are they being quoted at crazy high prices? That's known as "stickiness" Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/9/2007 Posts: 13,095
|
VituVingiSana wrote:washiku wrote:When are these prices collapsing, really?
I have see so many apartments still coming up, currently. Some going for prices as high as 30M for an apartment. Weird, on one side its being said the prices are coming down and that sector is collapsing. On the other side, millions are being poured into similar projects and being quoted at very high prices.
What is actually happening? Some projects were already in progress and these will likely be completed. There is little value in an incomplete project to the developer or financier. What will be interesting to see is how many NEW projects broke ground in 2H 2018. Why are they being quoted at crazy high prices? That's known as "stickiness" We have some huge projects breaking ground as late as Dec 2018. Why would investors continue to pour money into such projects if the returns looks unlikely?
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,187 Location: Nairobi
|
washiku wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:washiku wrote:When are these prices collapsing, really?
I have see so many apartments still coming up, currently. Some going for prices as high as 30M for an apartment. Weird, on one side its being said the prices are coming down and that sector is collapsing. On the other side, millions are being poured into similar projects and being quoted at very high prices.
What is actually happening? Some projects were already in progress and these will likely be completed. There is little value in an incomplete project to the developer or financier. What will be interesting to see is how many NEW projects broke ground in 2H 2018. Why are they being quoted at crazy high prices? That's known as "stickiness" We have some huge projects breaking ground as late as Dec 2018. Why would investors continue to pour money into such projects if the returns looks unlikely? Each project is different BUT I do not know why anyone, especially if it is financed at commercial interest rates, would build today. That said: 1) Some projects may have been leased/sold a good %. Off-plan. Sarit Center has snagged Carrefour as a tenant and is building out 2-3x the current space. Also a hotel in the works. 2) Some projects may take a few years and the developers are banking on demand returning/normalizing e.g. Serena Nairobi is expanding. 3) Some projects are "unique" eg a hospital eg Nairobi Hospital or serve a captive market. What I do not understand is why would folks borrow at 13% to get a rental yield of 6% on residential projects. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
|
VVS wrote:
We have some huge projects breaking ground as late as Dec 2018. Why would investors continue to pour money into such projects if the returns looks unlikely? Each project is different BUT I do not know why anyone, especially if it is financed at commercial interest rates, would build today.
That said: 1) Some projects may have been leased/sold a good %. Off-plan. Sarit Center has snagged Carrefour as a tenant and is building out 2-3x the current space. Also a hotel in the works. 2) Some projects may take a few years and the developers are banking on demand returning/normalizing e.g. Serena Nairobi is expanding. 3) Some projects are "unique" eg a hospital eg Nairobi Hospital or serve a captive market.
What I do not understand is why would folks borrow at 13% to get a rental yield of 6% on residential projects.
1. But who says everyone who develops a project takes a loan. 2. And who says rental yield is the only profit center in any real estate investment? 
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/16/2007 Posts: 2,114
|
MugundaMan wrote:1. But who says everyone who develops a project takes a loan. 2. And who says rental yield is the only profit center in any real estate investment?  I think this is from the owner's/landlord's perspective...
|
|
Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/15/2019 Posts: 33
|
Not everyone has money to invest so it's a good choise to take a loan to invest
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
|
30 years on we are still waiting for the "real estate bubble to burst" No one has ever repealed the law of supply and demand. Wake us up from our loud snoring on this topic when every Kenyan is decently housed and every single person has a piece of property to call their own. Which means wake us up on the first of never!
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947
|
Flipping is alive and well in this here Nairobi. There is a sort of renaissance ongoing in the masionettes around South B, Ngumo, woodley etc. Basically what is happening is some one is buying the houses, updating them to modern spec (bathroom, master ensuites, wardrobe space, integrating the SQ and generally creating better spaces) and then they sell. I have seen a house that was bought from a flipper in South B and it was beautiful. The changes made makes it better than a house in Kile by far and you have your own small landscaped garden! The court is also well organized and works well. Very impressive. I digressed I think this is something that will grow and I was honestly tempted to look for the flippers next house. Kumbe tutajua hatujui!
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947
|
MugundaMan wrote:Mike Ock wrote:High end rentals are nowadays making zero sense in terms of time to break even. But most of the money in the high end wasn't really looking for a quick return anyway. Depends on what you mean by "break even" I personally do not even look at rental yield as a factor in Kenya given the nature of cost structure in the industry. If you buy a 30m apartment for example and then hope to "break even" on the rents soon, you might be waiting decades. But what you lose in rental yields you gain in cap gains. This is why you are absolutely correct to say money in high end is not looking for a quick return (cash flows) and are very happy to wait 3, 5, 10 and even 20 years+ to make their real mint. Well I guess this market is cooling on the capital gains as well in the higher market. Offer prices for new houses are coming down and several apartments are not being fully sold for years. I think the upper end of the market are going to be screwed especially because of the liquid illegitimate cash whose requirements will be changing soon!
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
|
OH MY GOD!!! Even plots now are not moving! Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/28/2015 Posts: 9,562 Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
|
Cytonn also feeling the pinch.... https://www.businessdail...9782-r7it02z/index.html
Quote:Real-estate market slowdown has seen Cytonn Investments adopt one project at-a-time strategy for its future investments.
Speaking in Nairobi when he launched its pension business, Cytonn executive director Edwin Dande said slow economic growth has hurt property sales across the real-estate market forcing it to change tack. The firm will start with the Sh4 billion Ruaka The Alma mixed-use development comprising 477 units where the first 123 units will be handed over to owners soon.
“We started in Karen, went to Kiambu and currently have 10 investor-ready mixed-use developments on our cards. Some projects were done and sold off, others are under development with the rest being prime plots secured for future developments.
“We are now concentrating on The Alma before embarking on our next project The Ridge next year and after that we will take on the next project, 18-villa development, aka Applewood Karen that sits on a 10 acres,” he said.
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,915
|
dunkang wrote:OH MY GOD!!!
Even plots now are not moving! https://www.kenyans.co.k...sposes-land-ksh40m-acre
Kenyatta Family Disposes Off Land at Ksh40M Per Acre Members of the Kenyatta family are reportedly selling parts of their vast lands in Kiambu at a whopping Ksh40 million per acre. Business Daily reported that the management of the Northland City, which is located in Ruiru, is selling the plots reserved for industries for them to inject funds on infrastructure development. The entire city is estimated to be 103 acres and has been duly fenced by a perimeter wall. “The entire 103-acre plot is now secured with a perimeter wall erected around it and soon each plot is now on sale as a serviced plot at Sh40 million. "The same is also available for leasing where we shall put up purpose-built facilities for lease to incoming investors,” the paper quoted the city's business development head Paul He further divulged that three developers, plastic products manufacturer and two agro-processors, have already acquired portions of the land and urged others to pick up fast before prices go up in future. “We are urging international investors to buy plots here now before the dual carriageway is done since that will see demand rise forcing prices to shoot. “Our feasibility study shows processing and handling goods in bulk within a single facility makes its cheaper for retail outlets that require such savings to power their sales across Kenya,” he continued. The proponents of the city were also reportedly looking to develop commercial and residential spaces estimated to cost Sh500 billion to accommodate 250,000 workers daily in the next two decades. Once complete, the project will competed with other mixed use developments such as Tatu City. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 1/18/2019 Posts: 185 Location: kenya
|
dunkang wrote:OH MY GOD!!!
Even plots now are not moving! Things are tough.The cycle that began in 2003 is coming to an end. Especially in upper-mid to high end. However, every downturn has its opportunities. Time to buy low, there's deals everywhere if you have money. This cycle should be bottoming out at around 2021 before it starts going up again. Not many new projects are coming up compared to a few years ago so the oversupply is getting slowly absorbed.
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,610
|
nairobby wrote:dunkang wrote:OH MY GOD!!!
Even plots now are not moving! Things are tough.The cycle that began in 2003 is coming to an end. Especially in upper-mid to high end. However, every downturn has its opportunities. Time to buy low, there's deals everywhere if you have money. This cycle should be bottoming out at around 2021 before it starts going up again. Not many new projects are coming up compared to a few years ago so the oversupply is getting slowly absorbed. The real estate cycle is around 18-20 years. There is a period of correction lasting almost a decade. The first post-independence boom was around 1973 when most the Nairobi mid-class estates were built. The boom lasted till 1991 before a decade of correction. Current cycle will have another decade of correction which takes us to 2030's. The places that get hit during corrections are the suburbs. Bargain hunters will spend on revitalizing older neighborhoods which already have the amenities instead of going for greenfield projects. Which explains the renaissance that @Tony stark is talking about.
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 1/18/2019 Posts: 185 Location: kenya
|
wukan wrote:nairobby wrote:dunkang wrote:OH MY GOD!!!
Even plots now are not moving! Things are tough.The cycle that began in 2003 is coming to an end. Especially in upper-mid to high end. However, every downturn has its opportunities. Time to buy low, there's deals everywhere if you have money. This cycle should be bottoming out at around 2021 before it starts going up again. Not many new projects are coming up compared to a few years ago so the oversupply is getting slowly absorbed. The real estate cycle is around 18-20 years. There is a period of correction lasting almost a decade. The first post-independence boom was around 1973 when most the Nairobi mid-class estates were built. The boom lasted till 1991 before a decade of correction. Current cycle will have another decade of correction which takes us to 2030's. The places that get hit during corrections are the suburbs. Bargain hunters will spend on revitalizing older neighborhoods which already have the amenities instead of going for greenfield projects. Which explains the renaissance that @Tony stark is talking about. 2030 is too far. The correction has already begun! We have a mere oversupply and a tough economic environment. The oversupply is currently being dealt with as there's not much new development coming to market. My assumption is that the economic environment will improve. Perhaps that's where I'm wrong. But I believe by 2021/22 we'll have hit the bottom and after that prices will stabilize, and start appreciating slowly.
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Has the real estate bubble burst????
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|