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Portfolio Rebalancing - 1Q 2010
VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 12:07:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
The market has been 'depressed' with heavy selling/offers for many counters despite the good results.

I believe a partial but significant reason is the presence of 'Mutual Funds' & other entities who rebalance their portfolios to account for:

- Lock in gains from price appreciation
- Rebalance sectors
- Take cash out of the NSE for other needs
- A one-off 'Referendoom' cash outflow prior to Aug 2010
- A one-off Euro weakness might cause redemptions

I expect 'new' cash to flow in starting 1 July but in the meantime the sellers predominate. Well, till the end of business today!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
PKoli
#2 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 3:16:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@VVS

Interesting comments. I doubt if there will be significant impact of the referendum to the stockmarket. The two principals are pulling together and it looks the Yes will carry the day.

On the rebalancing my fund managers, I agree. They have also made some gains from banking sectors and manufacturing.

I think there is going to be more activity is we move towards the second quarter results (mainly banking sector) and final year (manufacturing).

Happy picking
muganda
#3 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 3:23:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
Though still rebalancing in the same asset class, I really really think I should sell off my many many KCB shares and buy SCBK.


I've been trying to form the habit of buying companies rather than shares. I liked KCB with the whole regional outlook, 'king of Kenya Shilling', good succession planning, affordable after stock split, my dad banks there, bank of the people and all that...

But I've come to realise I wouldn't dream of opening an account there, and they now represent a lumbering giant.


Now SCBK on the other hand I patronise to a fault. I understand and share their tenets of effeciency, smart with their deposits, tech and business savvy, and I like that they bank people 'above my pay grade'. Apart from their foreign oversight, there are some companies these days that fuss more about their share price more than I do - and SCBK fall in this class.

Heck, nobody's perfect! Just that I think if I could own the whole of KCB or the whole of SCBK, I would choose the latter for the next 5 years... So I think I need to let my cash flow from one to the other.

PKoli
#4 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 3:42:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@Muganda,

I would add ARM on your list. Growth of the stock is imminent. I will sure it should ebb towards, the 200 mark in the next two months.
the deal
#5 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 3:45:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Cash is an important asset of your portifolio too...
muganda
#6 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 4:18:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
@PKoli @the deal AGREED x2 I begin looking for the elusive 'margin of safety'.

Margin of safety is the difference between the intrinsic value of a stock and its market price.
guru267
#7 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 6:54:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
Cash is an important asset of your portifolio too...


@the deal if you are under 35 years old like i'm sure you are you are wasting time holding cash because it will yield nothing... all one needs to do is invest that money long term and IGNORE short term fluctuations and enjoy dividends
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
the deal
#8 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 8:28:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
guru267 wrote:
the deal wrote:
Cash is an important asset of your portifolio too...


@the deal if you are under 35 years old like i'm sure you are you are wasting time holding cash because it will yield nothing... all one needs to do is invest that money long term and IGNORE short term fluctuations and enjoy dividends

Yes i agree Madam...LoL...but being fully invested can be pain sometimes...i.e with no Cash u cant cost average...u can't buy if opportunities arise without selling something...my adivice always have something in your savings account.
kyt
#9 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 8:48:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
aint i lucky i have both arm and scbk. wow. i bought at 202 and 120 and i thought it was expensive. ha! I target 250 for scbk and 180. 50% gain and that will be a nice 350k.
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
youcan'tstopusnow
#10 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2010 8:59:19 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
muganda, once you sell your KCB, I think you should consider getting some equity, if you don't have some already.
Even for those who dislike, nay hate it, they have to admit that is has been, and will continue to make some serious money
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Gatheuzi
#11 Posted : Thursday, July 01, 2010 10:29:52 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
For those who like to benchmark their portfolio's performance against the NASI and the NSE 20, here are the numbers:

For the period Jan - June (1st half) NASI has gone up 32% while NSE 20 has gained 34%.

It seems I have beaten both (Iam up 70%)- my target was much lower about 40%. Seems Scangroup really made gains above my expectations. I will now sit and wait for 1st half results from the companies before engaging the next gear.

Happy investing!!
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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