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ARM Cement HY18
obiero
#61 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 6:49:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,516
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
the deal wrote:
Burned beyond recognition....in KQ the lenders are shareholders...They can't pull such a stunt...we are in it together...smile


1. Only local lenders became shareholders. KQ is still indebted to international lenders like American EXIM Bank. GoK had to issue new guarantees to the international lenders. If KQ doesn't pay, the international lenders will just seize the leased assets (planes) wherever they will be. Easier now since KQ flies to the US.

2. Paunrana and CDC did the right. If a monkey is dead, leave it for the vultures. You might salvage a few bones after the vultures are done. Its the essence of insolvency/ bankruptcy protection laws. GoK should follow suit and let KQ die. KLM was sensible not to pump more capital into a dead monkey.

1. What is a government guarantee?
2. KLM Heathrow additional slot is currently used by KQ as the 'inkind' KLM contributions.. With the JV still being active

But today we are here to mourn ARM. Let us give our last respects without drama


You are too emotionally in KQ to think straight but just understand that KQ is still in lots of debt and its assets can be siezed by debtors.

Despite my emotions you have not said what a government guarantee is all about in this context.. No straight reasoning nation will ground a plane of a foreign state that is backed by a government guarantee.. Kenya has massive reserves in the US Fed.. Kenya as a state is an ongoing concern. Hatuhami!

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Ebenyo
#62 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 7:02:21 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
According to the ARM HY 18 results,the total assets were worth kshs 40,806,869,000.The total debts were kshs 43,351,496,000 which includes maweni subsidiary debt.
So if they have sold assets worth 5 billion,it means the balance is kshs 35,806,869,000.
Given the assets are not enough even to clear debts,shareholders here will not get anything.
Poleni kwa wale waliadhiriwa.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ericsson
#63 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 7:05:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
Ebenyo wrote:
According to the ARM HY 18 results,the total assets were worth kshs 40,806,869,000.The total debts were kshs 43,351,496,000 which includes maweni subsidiary debt.
So if they have sold assets worth 5 billion,it means the balance is kshs 35,806,869,000.
Given the assets are not enough even to clear debts,shareholders here will not get anything.
Poleni kwa wale waliadhiriwa.


What is the asset base of the tanzania subsidiary and its share of debt
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ebenyo
#64 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 7:18:21 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
Ericsson wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
According to the ARM HY 18 results,the total assets were worth kshs 40,806,869,000.The total debts were kshs 43,351,496,000 which includes maweni subsidiary debt.
So if they have sold assets worth 5 billion,it means the balance is kshs 35,806,869,000.
Given the assets are not enough even to clear debts,shareholders here will not get anything.
Poleni kwa wale waliadhiriwa.


What is the asset base of the tanzania subsidiary and its share of debt



In the both results for full year 2017 and HY 18,it was not stated separately.It was generalised together.
Its only the maweni subsidiary debt of 21 billion that was disclosed late after HY results that was stated separately.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
sparkly
#65 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 7:21:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
the deal wrote:
Burned beyond recognition....in KQ the lenders are shareholders...They can't pull such a stunt...we are in it together...smile


1. Only local lenders became shareholders. KQ is still indebted to international lenders like American EXIM Bank. GoK had to issue new guarantees to the international lenders. If KQ doesn't pay, the international lenders will just seize the leased assets (planes) wherever they will be. Easier now since KQ flies to the US.

2. Paunrana and CDC did the right. If a monkey is dead, leave it for the vultures. You might salvage a few bones after the vultures are done. Its the essence of insolvency/ bankruptcy protection laws. GoK should follow suit and let KQ die. KLM was sensible not to pump more capital into a dead monkey.

1. What is a government guarantee?
2. KLM Heathrow additional slot is currently used by KQ as the 'inkind' KLM contributions.. With the JV still being active

But today we are here to mourn ARM. Let us give our last respects without drama


You are too emotionally in KQ to think straight but just understand that KQ is still in lots of debt and its assets can be siezed by debtors.

Despite my emotions you have not said what a government guarantee is all about in this context.. No straight reasoning nation will ground a plane of a foreign state that is backed by a government guarantee.. Kenya has massive reserves in the US Fed.. Kenya as a state is an ongoing concern. Hatuhami!



Many countries' aircrafts have been siezed... Tanzania, Congo, Zimbabwe, Switzerland, Air Afrique.

Read these links for yourself...


https://www.capitalfm.co...ized-over-unpaid-debts/


https://www.theeastafric...html-62jhg7z/index.html


https://www.google.com/a...f/idAFL5N11T4JL20150923


https://www.telegraph.co...r-grounded-by-debt.html

https://www.news24.com/x...-planes-seized-20011015


Aircrafts are vulnerable because if seized in a foreign jurisdiction, you can't do much. Only option if there is threat of seizure is to park them on tarmac in your local airport.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#66 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 7:35:39 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
the deal wrote:
Burned beyond recognition....in KQ the lenders are shareholders...They can't pull such a stunt...we are in it together...smile


1. Only local lenders became shareholders. KQ is still indebted to international lenders like American EXIM Bank. GoK had to issue new guarantees to the international lenders. If KQ doesn't pay, the international lenders will just seize the leased assets (planes) wherever they will be. Easier now since KQ flies to the US.

2. Paunrana and CDC did the right. If a monkey is dead, leave it for the vultures. You might salvage a few bones after the vultures are done. Its the essence of insolvency/ bankruptcy protection laws. GoK should follow suit and let KQ die. KLM was sensible not to pump more capital into a dead monkey.

The planes can also be seized in London, Paris and Amsterdam given the ties the USA/Boeing/Lessors has with these countries.
Add Dubai, Italy and Switzerland to the list!

BUT let's discuss KQ in KQ's thread.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#67 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 7:36:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,516
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
the deal wrote:
Burned beyond recognition....in KQ the lenders are shareholders...They can't pull such a stunt...we are in it together...smile


1. Only local lenders became shareholders. KQ is still indebted to international lenders like American EXIM Bank. GoK had to issue new guarantees to the international lenders. If KQ doesn't pay, the international lenders will just seize the leased assets (planes) wherever they will be. Easier now since KQ flies to the US.

2. Paunrana and CDC did the right. If a monkey is dead, leave it for the vultures. You might salvage a few bones after the vultures are done. Its the essence of insolvency/ bankruptcy protection laws. GoK should follow suit and let KQ die. KLM was sensible not to pump more capital into a dead monkey.

The planes can also be seized in London, Paris and Amsterdam given the ties the USA/Boeing/Lessors has with these countries.

Only in theory

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#68 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 7:41:31 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
According to the ARM HY 18 results,the total assets were worth kshs 40,806,869,000.The total debts were kshs 43,351,496,000 which includes maweni subsidiary debt.
So if they have sold assets worth 5 billion,it means the balance is kshs 35,806,869,000.
Given the assets are not enough even to clear debts,shareholders here will not get anything.
Poleni kwa wale waliadhiriwa.


What is the asset base of the tanzania subsidiary and its share of debt


In the both results for full year 2017 and HY 18,it was not stated separately.It was generalised together.
Its only the maweni subsidiary debt of 21 billion that was disclosed late after HY results that was stated separately.
From this thread and the Centum thread, you have some trouble reconciling "Company" and "Group" structures. Do not worry, it comes with time. Practice. Practice. Practice. And ask questions.
May I suggest you download the Annual Report and read the Notes. Not just for ARM but also Centum. Do so for the banks that have significant foreign operations eg I&M and Equity.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#69 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 7:47:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,516
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
According to the ARM HY 18 results,the total assets were worth kshs 40,806,869,000.The total debts were kshs 43,351,496,000 which includes maweni subsidiary debt.
So if they have sold assets worth 5 billion,it means the balance is kshs 35,806,869,000.
Given the assets are not enough even to clear debts,shareholders here will not get anything.
Poleni kwa wale waliadhiriwa.


What is the asset base of the tanzania subsidiary and its share of debt


In the both results for full year 2017 and HY 18,it was not stated separately.It was generalised together.
Its only the maweni subsidiary debt of 21 billion that was disclosed late after HY results that was stated separately.
From this thread and the Centum thread, you have some trouble reconciling "Company" and "Group" structures. Do not worry, it comes with time. Practice. Practice. Practice. And ask questions.
May I suggest you download the Annual Report and read the Notes. Not just for ARM but also Centum. Do so for the banks that have significant foreign operations eg I&M and Equity.

KCB statements will also be helpful

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
sparkly
#70 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 7:55:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
the deal wrote:
Burned beyond recognition....in KQ the lenders are shareholders...They can't pull such a stunt...we are in it together...smile


1. Only local lenders became shareholders. KQ is still indebted to international lenders like American EXIM Bank. GoK had to issue new guarantees to the international lenders. If KQ doesn't pay, the international lenders will just seize the leased assets (planes) wherever they will be. Easier now since KQ flies to the US.

2. Paunrana and CDC did the right. If a monkey is dead, leave it for the vultures. You might salvage a few bones after the vultures are done. Its the essence of insolvency/ bankruptcy protection laws. GoK should follow suit and let KQ die. KLM was sensible not to pump more capital into a dead monkey.

The planes can also be seized in London, Paris and Amsterdam given the ties the USA/Boeing/Lessors has with these countries.

Only in theory


KQ's most critical assets are the leased airplanes. KQ is struggling to meet lease obligations. As an investor, if you ignore the risk that the planes can be seized (temporarily or permanently) have you really analysed your investment objectively?
Life is short. Live passionately.
Ebenyo
#71 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 7:57:29 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
According to the ARM HY 18 results,the total assets were worth kshs 40,806,869,000.The total debts were kshs 43,351,496,000 which includes maweni subsidiary debt.
So if they have sold assets worth 5 billion,it means the balance is kshs 35,806,869,000.
Given the assets are not enough even to clear debts,shareholders here will not get anything.
Poleni kwa wale waliadhiriwa.


What is the asset base of the tanzania subsidiary and its share of debt


In the both results for full year 2017 and HY 18,it was not stated separately.It was generalised together.
Its only the maweni subsidiary debt of 21 billion that was disclosed late after HY results that was stated separately.
From this thread and the Centum thread, you have some trouble reconciling "Company" and "Group" structures. Do not worry, it comes with time. Practice. Practice. Practice. And ask questions.
May I suggest you download the Annual Report and read the Notes. Not just for ARM but also Centum. Do so for the banks that have significant foreign operations eg I&M and Equity.

smile
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ebenyo
#72 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 8:02:51 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
[quote=Ebenyo]According to the ARM HY 18 results,the total assets were worth kshs 40,806,869,000.The total debts were kshs 43,351,496,000 which includes maweni subsidiary debt.
So if they have sold assets worth 5 billion,it means the balance is kshs 35,806,869,000.
Given the assets are not enough even to clear debts,shareholders here will not get anything.
Poleni kwa wale waliadhiriwa.


What is the asset base of the tanzania subsidiary and its share of debt


In the both results for full year 2017 and HY 18,it was not stated separately.It was generalised together.
Its only the maweni subsidiary debt of 21 billion that was disclosed late after HY results that was stated separately.
From this thread and the Centum thread, you have some trouble reconciling "Company" and "Group" structures. Do not worry, it comes with time. Practice. Practice. Practice. And ask questions.
May I suggest you download the Annual Report and read the Notes. Not just for ARM but also Centum. Do so for the banks that have significant foreign operations eg I&M and Equity.



Banks do separate group and company results.
Im not seeing the other companies doing the same.They lump together.
Otherwise I'm still learning to analyse stocks fundamentally and technically.I agree it will take time.smile
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ericsson
#73 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 8:29:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
According to the ARM HY 18 results,the total assets were worth kshs 40,806,869,000.The total debts were kshs 43,351,496,000 which includes maweni subsidiary debt.
So if they have sold assets worth 5 billion,it means the balance is kshs 35,806,869,000.
Given the assets are not enough even to clear debts,shareholders here will not get anything.
Poleni kwa wale waliadhiriwa.


What is the asset base of the tanzania subsidiary and its share of debt


In the both results for full year 2017 and HY 18,it was not stated separately.It was generalised together.
Its only the maweni subsidiary debt of 21 billion that was disclosed late after HY results that was stated separately.
From this thread and the Centum thread, you have some trouble reconciling "Company" and "Group" structures. Do not worry, it comes with time. Practice. Practice. Practice. And ask questions.
May I suggest you download the Annual Report and read the Notes. Not just for ARM but also Centum. Do so for the banks that have significant foreign operations eg I&M and Equity.

KCB statements will also be helpful

They are the best because the results have been broken down for the individual operations.
You will get to see the profit/loss each jurisdiction made and also the balance sheet.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#74 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 8:32:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
[quote=Ebenyo]According to the ARM HY 18 results,the total assets were worth kshs 40,806,869,000.The total debts were kshs 43,351,496,000 which includes maweni subsidiary debt.
So if they have sold assets worth 5 billion,it means the balance is kshs 35,806,869,000.
Given the assets are not enough even to clear debts,shareholders here will not get anything.
Poleni kwa wale waliadhiriwa.


What is the asset base of the tanzania subsidiary and its share of debt


In the both results for full year 2017 and HY 18,it was not stated separately.It was generalised together.
Its only the maweni subsidiary debt of 21 billion that was disclosed late after HY results that was stated separately.
From this thread and the Centum thread, you have some trouble reconciling "Company" and "Group" structures. Do not worry, it comes with time. Practice. Practice. Practice. And ask questions.
May I suggest you download the Annual Report and read the Notes. Not just for ARM but also Centum. Do so for the banks that have significant foreign operations eg I&M and Equity.

Banks do separate group and company results.
Im not seeing the other companies doing the same.They lump together.
Otherwise I'm still learning to analyse stocks fundamentally and technically.I agree it will take time.smile
Grab an annual report for any firm that has a "Group" structure and you will see the "separation" BUT what happens is that we don't usually have an annual report or financial statements for individual subsidiaries.

Banks, due to CBK regulations, have to provide the data for KE banks.
So Equity Holdings will also publish Equity KE information.
I&M Holdings will publish I&M KE information.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
littledove
#75 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 8:59:51 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 903
Location: sky
Fyatu wrote:
maka wrote:
Devki Group subsidiary National Cement enters into an agreement to acquire all cement and non-cement assets and business of ARM Cement PLC for Sh 5.0 Billion.



Surely, management and administrators should be courteous enough and send shareholders a circular that provides details of this deal plus other disclosures(e.g., what happens to Tanzania assets and how much are they worth etc). We cannot be relying on media who provide scanty information

may be dangote will end up with the tanzania unit, but the administrators are very scanty with information.
They have just announced devki group will buy kenyan subsidiary at 5 billion while omans rysut offer was 10.2billion for 70% (and may be other bigger offers we as shareholders dont know about), does that mean tanzania subsidiary will fetch more than 7billion for the two offers to be above omans raysut? any way vile naona hii pesa yetu ikizungukazunguka karibu na mto inaelekea kunyua majiSad Anxious
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
Ebenyo
#76 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 9:18:41 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
littledove wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
maka wrote:
Devki Group subsidiary National Cement enters into an agreement to acquire all cement and non-cement assets and business of ARM Cement PLC for Sh 5.0 Billion.



Surely, management and administrators should be courteous enough and send shareholders a circular that provides details of this deal plus other disclosures(e.g., what happens to Tanzania assets and how much are they worth etc). We cannot be relying on media who provide scanty information

may be dangote will end up with the tanzania unit, but the administrators are very scanty with information.
They have just announced devki group will buy kenyan subsidiary at 5 billion while omans rysut offer was 10.2billion for 70% (and may be other bigger offers we as shareholders dont know about), does that mean tanzania subsidiary will fetch more than 7billion for the two offers to be above omans raysut? any way vile naona hii pesa yetu ikizungukazunguka karibu na mto inaelekea kunyua majiSad Anxious




When a company is liquidated,the first to be paid is debtors,then preference shareholders and lastly ordinary shareholders.Thats according to the law.
With ARM,debts exceed assets.This means debtors will take a hair cut while Shareholders will go to hell.Sad
Towards the goal of financial freedom
sparkly
#77 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 9:30:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
littledove wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
maka wrote:
Devki Group subsidiary National Cement enters into an agreement to acquire all cement and non-cement assets and business of ARM Cement PLC for Sh 5.0 Billion.



Surely, management and administrators should be courteous enough and send shareholders a circular that provides details of this deal plus other disclosures(e.g., what happens to Tanzania assets and how much are they worth etc). We cannot be relying on media who provide scanty information

may be dangote will end up with the tanzania unit, but the administrators are very scanty with information.
They have just announced devki group will buy kenyan subsidiary at 5 billion while omans rysut offer was 10.2billion for 70% (and may be other bigger offers we as shareholders dont know about), does that mean tanzania subsidiary will fetch more than 7billion for the two offers to be above omans raysut? any way vile naona hii pesa yetu ikizungukazunguka karibu na mto inaelekea kunyua majiSad Anxious


Bado haujaelewa hii story mzeiya. The administrator was appointed by secured creditor UBA to recover its debt. Other secured creditors like Stanbic likely joined in since UBA's debt was less than 0.5B.

The 5B asset sale is enough probably enough to cover the secured creditors' debts only.

Other debts like taxes, pension, suppliers, employees remain unpaid. There is nothing left for unsecured creditors let alone common shareholders.

In short, ARM for now is a company on paper only. It will have to declare bankruptcy or pump in lots of equity capital to continue operations of any Kind.
Life is short. Live passionately.
lochaz-index
#78 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 9:50:30 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
VituVingiSana wrote:
There is a lesson to be learnt.

I use an investment process.
I run the visible variables through it. The numbers from the Annual Report. And other data from other published sources. And my assumptions gleaned from experience, newspapers, visits, etc.

I have tweaked my process since ARM but that doesn't mean the process was fundamentally flawed. After all it also led to KK.
And has done so to KenRe, Unga and Centum. I am quite comfortable with these.

"Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that 'Price is what you pay; value is what you get.' Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down." - Warren Buffett

No, I do NOT get every call right. I just need to get a few (significant/core) calls right. Someone who claims to be 100% right should be a billionaire many times over. So if I start waxing lyrical about getting ALL my calls right, please call me out.

Data I used included:
- CDC investing $50mn into ARM which, apparently, they did not. The irony is that 2 years later that's what NCC/Devki is paying for ALL of ARM's Kenyan assets.
- The NAV. I did apply a significant discount.
- The economy. There was a light at the end of the tunnel but the tunnel, as it turned out, was very long.
- Change in the board and management was imminent. There were new directors and a new Chairman ready to go. Also a new CEO.

The process also takes into account the type of investment. I do not go from "nothing to Core" but usually build it up over time.
From nothing to Tier 3 - Total Tier 3 is less than 5% of my portfolio
Tier 3 to Tier 2 - Learning more about the firm/s. Going to AGMs. Reading a lot more. They may get stuck in limbo here. I need to learn when to sell.
Tier 2 to Core - That's where I have what some call "conviction"

Then I wait and monitor. This is where it gets boring but I am old so I don't want too much excitement. There may be good and bad quarters/halves. But there is little going on except making steady gains. The firms chug along. Monitoring and Patience are key. And even then one may get it wrong since complacency may set in.

I think the announcement that CDC would invest $50mn was the most important factor but until the money is disbursed do not believe it. This is an IMPORTANT lesson I have learnt.

One other thing...if you don't trust the books/management just stay away. If you start discounting NAV, computing PER and PBV from a flawed standpoint you are essentially digging your own grave. I think the same case applies to centum but time will tell.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
VituVingiSana
#79 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 9:56:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
There is a lesson to be learnt.

I use an investment process.
I run the visible variables through it. The numbers from the Annual Report. And other data from other published sources. And my assumptions gleaned from experience, newspapers, visits, etc.

I have tweaked my process since ARM but that doesn't mean the process was fundamentally flawed. After all it also led to KK.
And has done so to KenRe, Unga and Centum. I am quite comfortable with these.

"Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that 'Price is what you pay; value is what you get.' Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down." - Warren Buffett

No, I do NOT get every call right. I just need to get a few (significant/core) calls right. Someone who claims to be 100% right should be a billionaire many times over. So if I start waxing lyrical about getting ALL my calls right, please call me out.

Data I used included:
- CDC investing $50mn into ARM which, apparently, they did not. The irony is that 2 years later that's what NCC/Devki is paying for ALL of ARM's Kenyan assets.
- The NAV. I did apply a significant discount.
- The economy. There was a light at the end of the tunnel but the tunnel, as it turned out, was very long.
- Change in the board and management was imminent. There were new directors and a new Chairman ready to go. Also a new CEO.

The process also takes into account the type of investment. I do not go from "nothing to Core" but usually build it up over time.
From nothing to Tier 3 - Total Tier 3 is less than 5% of my portfolio
Tier 3 to Tier 2 - Learning more about the firm/s. Going to AGMs. Reading a lot more. They may get stuck in limbo here. I need to learn when to sell.
Tier 2 to Core - That's where I have what some call "conviction"

Then I wait and monitor. This is where it gets boring but I am old so I don't want too much excitement. There may be good and bad quarters/halves. But there is little going on except making steady gains. The firms chug along. Monitoring and Patience are key. And even then one may get it wrong since complacency may set in.

I think the announcement that CDC would invest $50mn was the most important factor but until the money is disbursed do not believe it. This is an IMPORTANT lesson I have learnt.

One other thing...if you don't trust the books/management just stay away. If you start discounting NAV, computing PER and PBV from a flawed standpoint you are essentially digging your own grave. I think the same case applies to centum but time will tell.
Agreed.
I am OK with Centum for now but the point stands. For ARM, I was not looking at the NAV as much as the financial support from CDC coupled with a new CEO and Board.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Fyatu
#80 Posted : Wednesday, May 22, 2019 10:20:40 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
In today's Standard newspaper(22 05 2019), on page 33, Otiato Guguyu writes that Tanzanians are keen on ARM being cross listed so they can own a stake etc.

Can someone provide full details on what is happening other than piecemeal and fragmented information all over the place...

Another article Guru Raval is quoted saying his move was "For the interest of Kenya" etc.

I'm just seeking closure on this matter
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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