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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 For wave [c] of Y (see extreme right), we have completed green labelled waves (i)(ii)(iii) and (iv). The market appears to be now falling in a fifth wave (v) and is in fact accelerating downwards. The distance between the end of wave (iv) @ about 3070 and my upper target of 1700 appears too long which could imply that wave (v) will extend. Additionally this also raises the possibility that wave [c] of Y (and the index at large) may bottom at the upper target of 1700 and not further below. Using Fibonacci ratios(the guideline is that wave one through to the end of wave three should be in golden ratio proportions to wave five) then: Wave (i) to (iii) = approx. 4060 - 2745 = 1315. Targets using this guideline are: 1. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (0.5 X 1315) = 24082. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (0.618 X 1315) = 22523. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (1 X 1315) = 1750 Near our other target. 4. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (1.618 X 1315) = 937 which is very unlikely. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,592
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@mnandii, great stuff. I see the target of 2252 holding. Sub 2K will generate too much political heat
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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wukan wrote:@mnandii, great stuff. I see the target of 2252 holding. Sub 2K will generate too much political heat Hehe. Things should become more thick. As @hisa usually says sh*t will hit the fan Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 Am into Oil also now. This one XTIUSD (West Texas Crude Oil). I expect the market to fall slightly in blue wave 4 to about 60 or 59 (the pink horizontal trend lines) then rise strongly in a fifth wave (remember commodities have explosive fifth waves). The target for the rise is about 70s and possibly 73s. See the white trend line for guidance. Thereafter oil should fall strongly to below $40s per barrel toward $20s. Unbelievable? That's what Elliott says for now. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:Am into Oil also now. This one XTIUSD (West Texas Crude Oil). I expect the market to fall slightly in blue wave 4 to about 60 or 59 (the pink horizontal trend lines) then rise strongly in a fifth wave (remember commodities have explosive fifth waves). The target for the rise is about 70s and possibly 73s. See the white trend line for guidance. Thereafter oil should fall strongly to below $40s per barrel toward $20s. Unbelievable? That's what Elliott says for now. It would be nice for us, as net consumers, to see oil between $20-40, in the near future. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mnandii wrote:For wave [c] of Y (see extreme right), we have completed green labelled waves (i)(ii)(iii) and (iv). The market appears to be now falling in a fifth wave (v) and is in fact accelerating downwards. The distance between the end of wave (iv) @ about 3070 and my upper target of 1700 appears too long which could imply that wave (v) will extend. Additionally this also raises the possibility that wave [c] of Y (and the index at large) may bottom at the upper target of 1700 and not further below. Using Fibonacci ratios(the guideline is that wave one through to the end of wave three should be in golden ratio proportions to wave five) then: Wave (i) to (iii) = approx. 4060 - 2745 = 1315. Targets using this guideline are: 1. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (0.5 X 1315) = 24082. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (0.618 X 1315) = 22523. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (1 X 1315) = 1750 Near our other target. 4. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (1.618 X 1315) = 937 which is very unlikely. Finally some action. Sideways markets are the worst. Death by a thousand cuts continues. Closed at 2695 today having broken out of its near 7 month consolidation range...10 year low back to 2009 levels in the aftermath of the GFC. Looking like a steep fall ahead before some brakes are applied. Waiting for the fiscal end of GoK to smell the coffee. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mnandii wrote:Am into Oil also now. This one XTIUSD (West Texas Crude Oil). I expect the market to fall slightly in blue wave 4 to about 60 or 59 (the pink horizontal trend lines) then rise strongly in a fifth wave (remember commodities have explosive fifth waves). The target for the rise is about 70s and possibly 73s. See the white trend line for guidance. Thereafter oil should fall strongly to below $40s per barrel toward $20s. Unbelievable? That's what Elliott says for now. Agreed on this one too. Ever since that drop in crude prices in 2014, anything above 70$ pb has been a short for me. Puts paid to KE ambitions on that end too at least on a medium term basis. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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wukan wrote:@mnandii, great stuff. I see the target of 2252 holding. Sub 2K will generate too much political heat Sub 2000 is coming but perhaps next year. This is not a smash and grab type of bear...kills you softly while offering a false sense of hope. It will be an interesting run of things from all spheres here on out. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:@mnandii, great stuff. I see the target of 2252 holding. Sub 2K will generate too much political heat Sub 2000 is coming but perhaps next year. This is not a smash and grab type of bear...kills you softly while offering a false sense of hope. It will be an interesting run of things from all spheres here on out. It's a buyer's market. Selectively though.. Many monkeys on the loose including KENRE
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/15/2008 Posts: 203
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Some Companies at the NSE are just pitfalls, designed to swallow your money..... Uchumi, KQ, HomeAfrika, Mumias, NBK actually just about any company that is intertwined with the Government in the running of its operations. Anyway, if @mnandii's hypothesis is anything to go by, then this government will not get its act together within this election cycle. We should probably discuss how to make money in a bear market. Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,592
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lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:@mnandii, great stuff. I see the target of 2252 holding. Sub 2K will generate too much political heat Sub 2000 is coming but perhaps next year. This is not a smash and grab type of bear...kills you softly while offering a false sense of hope. It will be an interesting run of things from all spheres here on out. This soft killing bear is going to hurt a lot of folks. Insurance companies which don't invest a lot on TA will have a rough year ahead. Quote:Significant underwriting losses for many players were witnessed last year, leaving a number of insurers with ratios below the legal minimum requirements set by the Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA).
“I think this is the worst year ever in Kenya’s history. We need to ask for how long. Another one similar year and half of these companies will go bust. Maybe consolidation is an answer,” Jubilee Holdings chairman Nizar Juma told the Business Daily.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 384
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lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:@mnandii, great stuff. I see the target of 2252 holding. Sub 2K will generate too much political heat Sub 2000 is coming but perhaps next year. This is not a smash and grab type of bear...kills you softly while offering a false sense of hope. It will be an interesting run of things from all spheres here on out. next year? you mean the time to buy is still not here but next year?
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/8/2018 Posts: 507 Location: Nairobi
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I&M at 57? Mtu anipatie loan  This bear is brutal. Gems everywhere though. Patient buyers will reap profits
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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rwitre wrote:I&M at 57? Mtu anipatie loan This bear is brutal. Gems everywhere though. Patient buyers will reap profits It's easy to get confused right now, too many pretty women at the NSE party
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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xtina wrote:lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:@mnandii, great stuff. I see the target of 2252 holding. Sub 2K will generate too much political heat Sub 2000 is coming but perhaps next year. This is not a smash and grab type of bear...kills you softly while offering a false sense of hope. It will be an interesting run of things from all spheres here on out. next year? you mean the time to buy is still not here but next year? Might be longer. Most guys trying to buy stocks are hopping for a miracle but I don't see one any time soon. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Am into Oil also now. This one XTIUSD (West Texas Crude Oil). I expect the market to fall slightly in blue wave 4 to about 60 or 59 (the pink horizontal trend lines) then rise strongly in a fifth wave (remember commodities have explosive fifth waves). The target for the rise is about 70s and possibly 73s. See the white trend line for guidance. Thereafter oil should fall strongly to below $40s per barrel toward $20s. Unbelievable? That's what Elliott says for now. It would be nice for us, as net consumers, to see oil between $20-40, in the near future. Only problem is that pockets might be empty then. Guys should seriously consider keeping hard cash under mattresses and buying bitcoin. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:I did warn about bank and insurance companies collapsing when the bear in the NSE 20 Share Index took a strong hold. Then I was being told how Kenyan banks have strong capital ratios, ati sijui we have a smart CBK governor? Now I hear there is a bank and an insurance company that are facing difficult times  ? I doubt you were told all banks were the same. Even back then, NBK had poor fundamentals. Overall the KE banking sector looks OK. There will always be a few stragglers. Spire, NBK, etc were weak back in 2016 and remain so today. Even among insurance firms, you have the likes of Jubilee, which may face challenges in some years, and some shady/weak ones that remain on the edge forever. As long as the banks practice their well established business model i.e fractional reserve banking, they are vulnerable. When a bank run happens then it will not matter the fundamentals of any bank, they all go down. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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sparkly wrote:mnandii wrote:I did warn about bank and insurance companies collapsing when the bear in the NSE 20 Share Index took a strong hold. Then I was being told how Kenyan banks have strong capital ratios, ati sijui we have a smart CBK governor? Now I hear there is a bank and an insurance company that are facing difficult times ? @Mnabii tell us what will happen to KQ, Mumias, HAFR, ARM, Deacons, NIC-CBA As long as the NSE continues down I would expect all the other counters to do the same. But from a practical perspective the counters you quote above have not shown clear Elliott Wave patterns last I checked. Except for the NSE 20 Share index and Safaricom the others are not good Elliott candidates Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:@mnandii, great stuff. I see the target of 2252 holding. Sub 2K will generate too much political heat Sub 2000 is coming but perhaps next year. This is not a smash and grab type of bear...kills you softly while offering a false sense of hope. It will be an interesting run of things from all spheres here on out. This soft killing bear is going to hurt a lot of folks. Insurance companies which don't invest a lot on TA will have a rough year ahead. Quote:Significant underwriting losses for many players were witnessed last year, leaving a number of insurers with ratios below the legal minimum requirements set by the Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA).
“I think this is the worst year ever in Kenya’s history. We need to ask for how long. Another one similar year and half of these companies will go bust. Maybe consolidation is an answer,” Jubilee Holdings chairman Nizar Juma told the Business Daily. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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mnandii wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:@mnandii, great stuff. I see the target of 2252 holding. Sub 2K will generate too much political heat Sub 2000 is coming but perhaps next year. This is not a smash and grab type of bear...kills you softly while offering a false sense of hope. It will be an interesting run of things from all spheres here on out. This soft killing bear is going to hurt a lot of folks. Insurance companies which don't invest a lot on TA will have a rough year ahead. Quote:Significant underwriting losses for many players were witnessed last year, leaving a number of insurers with ratios below the legal minimum requirements set by the Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA).
“I think this is the worst year ever in Kenya’s history. We need to ask for how long. Another one similar year and half of these companies will go bust. Maybe consolidation is an answer,” Jubilee Holdings chairman Nizar Juma told the Business Daily. Even consolidation will not aid the current situation in the sector.. 0+0 equal to nought
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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