Nandwa wrote:So the prolonged dry spell is due to ITCZ being held captive out there by a certain set of circumstances.
may I then ask;
1. What are the chances that once the ITCZ is released it may land here in June or July then bring us rain at point in time?
2. Do these factors only conspire to deny rain when it should be falling or do they also conspire to have rain when it should be dry season?
First what is ITCZ? Sailors called it the doldrums or the calms, is the area encircling Earth near the Equator, where the northeast and southeast trade winds converge. So in simple terms - its the winds. On the satellite it appears as a band of clouds consisting of showers and its positioned north and south of the equator. The pressure in the atmosphere plays a role in determining where these clouds will dump moisture. For some weeks this band has been over the equator heavy on west africa all the way to UG RW TZ western KE but it kind of bends downwards to TZ.
Ref post 216.
This was yesterday
The weatherman in Kenya needs to stop giving historical weather details as forecasts. Last year the ITCZ formed early and the rains started much earlier yet they gave the same forecast as they did. Plus the language they use "being held captive" why do they assume people are uneducated?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.